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"S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
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tribephyl 11811 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 01:51 AM (EST)
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"S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
The final thread of the season dedicated to 2nd Chances Vidcaps.
Let us commence posting...
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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Post-Show Promo tribephyl 12-10-15 1
   RE: Post-Show Promo Sheldor 12-10-15 2
       RE: Post-Show Promo SquidProQuo 12-10-15 6
           RE: Post-Show Promo Sheldor 12-10-15 10
               RE: Post-Show Promo Flowerpower1 12-11-15 12
   RE: Post-Show Promo Rembrandt 12-10-15 3
       RE: Post-Show Promo Sheldor 12-10-15 4
   RE: Post-Show Promo MCPorche 12-10-15 5
       RE: Post-Show Promo SquidProQuo 12-10-15 7
       RE: Post-Show Promo b1whois 12-10-15 8
       RE: Post-Show Promo Sheldor 12-10-15 9
   RE: Post-Show Promo Flowerpower1 12-14-15 26
       RE: Post-Show Promo Sheldor 12-14-15 34
 This might be a stretch Rembrandt 12-11-15 11
   RE: This might be a stretch Flowerpower1 12-11-15 13
       RE: This might be a stretch Sheldor 12-11-15 14
           RE: This might be a stretch Flowerpower1 12-11-15 15
               RE: This might be a stretch Sheldor 12-11-15 16
                   RE: This might be a stretch Georganna 12-11-15 17
                       RE: This might be a stretch Flowerpower1 12-12-15 18
                           RE: This might be a stretch Georganna 12-12-15 19
 RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... Georganna 12-13-15 20
   RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... Flowerpower1 12-13-15 21
       RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... Georganna 12-14-15 23
           RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... kingfish 12-14-15 24
               RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... SquidProQuo 12-14-15 29
               RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... Georganna 12-15-15 58
   RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... tribephyl 12-14-15 22
       RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... Flowerpower1 12-14-15 25
           RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... Sheldor 12-14-15 27
               RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... SquidProQuo 12-14-15 28
               RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... Flowerpower1 12-14-15 32
                   RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... SquidProQuo 12-14-15 33
               RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... michel2 12-14-15 36
                   RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... SquidProQuo 12-15-15 42
                   RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... Sheldor 12-15-15 43
                       RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... michel2 12-15-15 59
           RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... SquidProQuo 12-14-15 31
               RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... michel2 12-14-15 37
       RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 ... SquidProQuo 12-14-15 30
 Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep. 13 Sheldor 12-14-15 35
   RE: Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep.... SquidProQuo 12-15-15 38
       RE: Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep.... Georganna 12-15-15 41
       RE: Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep.... Sheldor 12-15-15 54
 F4 Challenge - Simmotion SquidProQuo 12-15-15 39
   RE: F4 Challenge - Simmotion Georganna 12-15-15 45
       RE: F4 Challenge - Simmotion Sheldor 12-15-15 51
 Press photos are up SquidProQuo 12-15-15 40
   RE: Press photos are up Sheldor 12-15-15 44
       RE: Press photos are up Flowerpower1 12-15-15 47
           RE: Press photos are up Georganna 12-15-15 49
               RE: Press photos are up SquidProQuo 12-15-15 50
                   RE: Press photos are up Sheldor 12-15-15 52
                       RE: Press photos are up SquidProQuo 12-15-15 55
                   RE: Press photos are up Georganna 12-15-15 57
               RE: Press photos are up Sheldor 12-15-15 53
               RE: Press photos are up Flowerpower1 12-15-15 56
       RE: Press photos are up Flowerpower1 12-15-15 48
           On further review Flowerpower1 12-15-15 60
 Who the survivors should target fir... Rembrandt 12-15-15 46

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tribephyl 11811 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 01:58 AM (EST)
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1. "Post-Show Promo"
Transcript and Vidcaps courtesy of SurvivorFever.net

Probst: Next time on the Season Finale of Survivor...
-01
-02
-03
-04
Jeremy: You won't give. You're not giving.
-05
Spencer: You're not either.
-06
Probst: This close to the end, no one is giving up their second chance without a fight.
-07
-08
-09
-10
Probst (starting challenge): Go!
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
-16
Kelley (cam. conf.): Now it's all about staying alive.
-17
Kimmi (talking to Keith): They would not expect it.
-18
-19
Keith (cam. conf.): Come to tribal tonight. Buy a ticket. It might be epic.
-20
Probst (standing at voting urn at Tribal Council): For the first time in 31 seasons...
-21
-22
-23
Probst: Join us for the finale and live reunion show, Wednesday, December 16.

-24

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Sheldor 839 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 03:35 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
That Final 6 Immunity Challenge definitely looks like the Final 6 Immunity Challenge from the Redemption Island Season called "Step On It" where Boston Rob was "literally carrying his family on his back"


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SquidProQuo 2331 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 05:22 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
That's a brutal challenge. Seems to favor Spencer (cross country runner/endurance/younger/puzzle ability). But can't count out Jeremy...and he'd certainly fit with the "carrying family on his back" theme.
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Sheldor 839 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 10:57 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
Definitely a grueling challenge but just behind Boston Rob was Andrea in that challenge.

And don't forget that Jacquelyn won the grueling Final 4 challenge in San Juan Del Sur


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Flowerpower1 1298 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-15, 09:57 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
But, just ahead of Rob at the point in the picture was Grant. I think Grant won second. The thing to notice about the challenge at F6, for this season, is the patterns on the steps. They can only bring up one step at a time, and it must be the correct pattern. So, someone that is good at spatial things, and puzzles, will have a better time with this. I think this challenge favors Spencer?
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Rembrandt 64 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 04:41 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
Are these 2 photos at tribal council?

If so, then Kelley loses 1 of the last 3 Individual Immunity challenges.

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Sheldor 839 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 05:43 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
Background looks more like the shelter and there is sunlight shining in. Even though they need to squeeze in 3 vote off Tribal Councils in the Finale I'm sure they would be a night (Nights 36, 37, 38) NOT during the Day Light.

Also, Kelley always wears one of her shirts over her sports bra at Tribal Council and most of the Tribal Councils she wears her buff on top of her head.

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MCPorche 10 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 11:47 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
I'm thinking Jeff's "for the first time in 31 seasons" is going to turn out to be a successful play of an idol by both Jeremy and Wentworth, nullifying every vote.

Questions:

--Does that mean that whoever has immunity AND the two people who played the idol are immune from the revote?

--Do the players who played the idol get to vote in a revote? Typically, the players who received votes don't get to vote, but technically speaking these two players had no votes cast against them.

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SquidProQuo 2331 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 05:23 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
That's what I'm thinking too. Not sure how it'll work in this case, but should be epic!
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b1whois 126 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 05:58 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
I was thinking it is a three way tie...but I guess that seems rather unlikely at this point.
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Sheldor 839 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 10:37 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
--Does that mean that whoever has immunity AND the two people who played the idol are immune from the revote?

Yes, Jeff answered that question in a Tout video a few years ago:
"If the players who received votes both use Hidden Immunity Idols, the vote will be voided, and a re-vote would commence. In this round of voting, the players must vote for someone other than the idol users and the player who has individual immunity"

--Do the players who played the idol get to vote in a revote? Typically, the players who received votes don't get to vote, but technically speaking these two players had no votes cast against them.

Yes they get to vote since the original votes were "voided" so essentially no one received a vote.

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Flowerpower1 1298 desperate attention whore postings
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12-14-15, 10:18 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
Some questions:

Are we sure the challenge seen IS the immunity challenge for F6?

I just don't see an IN anywhere?


Other questions: What are Jeremy and Spencer arguing about? You won't give, you are not giving!
You're not either!

Are they discussing their boot order? Getting out Keith or Wentworth first or second? If Keith does not win the IN, someone will most likely want to get him out first, he's too dangerous, whereas the other person could name Kelley as the most dangerous?

I think that Kimmi, who Jeremy and Spencer may feel is with them, is clearly not with them anymore. She seemingly wants to go with Wentworth. I listened to RHAP this week, and it came out that Kimmi wanted to do the All Women's alliance with Kelley, but Tasha and Abi wanted to do things their way? We saw Kimmi heavily pitching it. Now we see her going to Keith with a plot, then Keith says, Come to TC, it will be epic!

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Sheldor 839 desperate attention whore postings
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12-14-15, 09:13 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Post-Show Promo"
Flower power asked:

Are we sure the challenge seen IS the immunity challenge for F6?

I just don't see an IN anywhere?

Hard to imagine they have time for a F6 Reward Challenge and this would be an EPIC challenge for a Reward as they added a 15 piece 3-D Slide Puzzle to the end (as seen in the Behind The Scenes of Challenge video).

In S22 the players were on the mat in front of all the puzzle step pieces with their backs to the challenge and Jeff Probst in front of them. The Jeff Probst stairs were on the Left side of the challenge and the Immunity Necklace stand was also on the Left side.

In this preview the players are standing on a mat sort of in the middle of the challenge. Looks like they are in front of the Left side of the second set of steps. From the Challenge Preview we know the steps are on the Right side of the Challenge which we also know from seeing Jeff on the Right side of the Challenge. However the players are facing the Left side of the challenge on the mat and Jeff would be standing in front of them on the Left side.

Seems strange to put the Immunity Necklace stand on the Left where Jeff is standing and then have Jeff observe the challenge from the Right side where the stairs are for him. Then come back down and walk to the left side to retrieve the Immunity Necklace but perhaps after the challenge is done they put the mat back next to the second set of puzzle steps and that's why the necklace in the Left and out of view from all the screen caps.

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Rembrandt 64 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-15, 02:46 AM (EST)
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11. "This might be a stretch"
But what if Jeremy/Spencer wins Immunity. Kimmi realizes that she need to team up with Keith and Kelley.

Kimmi tells Keith and Kelley that Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha is voting Kelley.

Keith/Kelley would listen to who Kimmi would want out. Because they are in the minority. By her pecking order. Spencer is next on her list. So maybe Jeremy wins immunity.

Also could be a reason why Kimmi told Keith that they will never see it coming.

At Tribal Council

Kimmi/Kelley/Keith votes Spencer

Spencer/Jeremy/Tasha votes Kelley.

Kelley plays her idol on herself.

Jeremy plays his idol on Spencer.

All votes are void. So they will re-vote. ( Kelley/Jeremy/Spencer safe from re-vote. )

Tasha/Jeremy/Spencer votes Keith.

Keith/Kelley votes Tasha.

Kimmi votes Keith

Keith voted out 4-2

Because if there is another tie, I think Kimmi would be going home. Because she would be the only one eligible to be rock out. ( I believe the people who gets votes to force a tie are safe from picking rocks. Unless they go to a tie breaker challenge. )

But this might be a stretch. But it is still a possibility.

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Flowerpower1 1298 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-15, 10:11 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: This might be a stretch"
Sounds good, Rembrandt, I agree!

I am leaning toward Spencer winning the F6 IC, but ??

You are right about the rock draw. I was thinking it could go to a rock draw because Jiffy said, go big this season. But, If at the F6, let's look at the various ways it could go down.

1. Spencer wins IC, Jeremy and Kelley play their HI's, all immune. Revote 3 votes Keith, 3 votes Tasha. Keith and Tasha immune, then Kimmi goes out. In this scenario, I can DEFINITELY see Kimmi changing her vote to Keith, Keith goes home.

2. Jeremy wins IC, gives Spencer his HI, and Kelley plays her HI, all immune, same as above, Keith goes.

If Jeremy were to win the IC, then give his HI to Tasha, then I think Spencer would go home before Keith. I see Spencer as a definitive end game player so I don't think this scenario is a choice.

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Sheldor 839 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-15, 06:25 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: This might be a stretch"
The rules of the Rock Draw were changed/clarified after being improperly used at the Final 4 of Marquesas where ONLY Paschal should have been drawing a rock since Vecepia had Immunity, Neleh and Kathy were tied 2-2.

Rock Draw would NOT be used at Final 4 (since only 1 person would be eligible to draw a rock) and instead Fire Making has been the Final 4 Tie Breaker.

However those Rock Draw rules were written before Immunity Idols were invented. With idols in play up to and including the Final 5 Tribal Council there can now be 1 or even ZERO players eligible to draw a rock. For instance:

Final 5 Tie with 1 idol = 1 Eligible or with 2 idols NO ONE Eligible
Final 6 Tie with 2 idols = 1 Eligible to draw a rock

So perhaps the Rock Draw Tie Breaker rules were changed to state that at least 2 players have to be eligible to pull a rock otherwise Fire Making Tie-Breaker is used?

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Flowerpower1 1298 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-15, 06:53 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: This might be a stretch"
Thanks for the clarification, Sheldor! Much appreciated. Still, if I were Kimmi, I don't think I would like to do a fire making challenge with Keith. It brings to mind that scene with the fire where Keith told Kimmi not to do something a few times and she did it anyway and Keith ended up being right, regarding the fire.
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Sheldor 839 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-15, 10:28 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: This might be a stretch"
Flowerpower THANKS for bringing that back up. Kimmi was cooking something and Keith warned her that the food wood fall off they way she was holding it and sure enough it did. At the time I thought that was a very strange scene to include as there has been hardly any relationship scenes between Kimmi and Keith. Now Next Time has Kimmi approaching Keith to do something "they will never suspect".

That old scene with Kimmi/Keith must have been included for a reason!

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Georganna 686 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-15, 10:35 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: This might be a stretch"
LAST EDITED ON 12-11-15 AT 11:41 PM (EST)

It ended with ...

Keith: You're out of here, Kimmi!

Or ...

Keith: You're done here, Kimmi!

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Flowerpower1 1298 desperate attention whore postings
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12-12-15, 11:24 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: This might be a stretch"
Or, We're done!

?

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Georganna 686 desperate attention whore postings
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12-12-15, 11:40 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: This might be a stretch"
LAST EDITED ON 12-12-15 AT 11:46 AM (EST)

Per Michel ...

Keith and Kimmi were arguing over by the fire. When Kimmi dropped the fish in the fire, Keith told her: “You’re done, you’re done.”

Michel's follow-up comment: No one should be surprised to see Keith outlasting Kimmi after this!

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Georganna 686 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-15, 04:31 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"



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Flowerpower1 1298 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-15, 06:49 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
LAST EDITED ON 12-13-15 AT 06:49 PM (EST)

Thanks for posting, G!


The confessionals are:

Tasha: A million dollars is. on. the. line!

Jeremy: I gotta win!

Kelley: You can't trust anybody!

Keith: It might be epic!

Kimmi: I am gonna go full force!

Spencer: I have to complete my second chance journey.

Could the winner be so clear from these confessionals?

Jeremy has the clear conviction/declaration regarding winning. Spencer ~ is he telling us HE IS THE JOURNEY player?

Perplexing indeed!

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Georganna 686 desperate attention whore postings
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12-14-15, 05:42 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-15 AT 11:39 AM (EST)


...

Jeremy has the clear conviction/declaration regarding winning. Spencer ~ is he telling us HE IS THE JOURNEY player?

I think that if Spencer is not Cambodia's Journey Player, we are being shown an awfully good imitation of one.

For instance, below is Michel's account of Spencer's Temple musings:


Spencer’s confessional: I’ve never seen a better reward. Cambodian Temples! It’s amazing to the point that I am slapping myself every two minutes that I’m here, that I’m seeing what I am seeing. Thirty three days ago, I walked right here with this incredible journey ahead of me and now to come back here and seeing these temples and doing what I wanted to do in my second chance which is show through this game how I have changed and use that change to win, it’s more than the rejuvenation that I need to go through these last six days.

So, I think that the question this Season has become - Is Spencer the Journey Player who wins the Game?

...

So, is the Tasha Fox (Capricorn - The Goat) Campaign to eliminate Cambodia's Billies and Nannies truly born of an elitist passion to cleanse the Game of its less desirable elements or of a more cynical intent to oust her competitors for that F3 slot? ...

...

And, borrowing from Michel once again, below is a portion of his acount of Kelley's Temple reflections:

Kelley’s confessional: “We got this really cultural experience. I’ll never do that in my life so, out of all the rewards, this was such a great one to win ...

So, did anyone else feel as though we were being not-so-subtly encouraged to think of Kelley as the Challenge Victor and Reward Hostess?

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kingfish 18686 desperate attention whore postings
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12-14-15, 09:34 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
"So, is the Tasha Fox (Capricorn - The Goat) Campaign to eliminate Cambodia's Billies and Nannies truly born of an elitist passion to cleanse the Game of its less desirable elements or of a more cynical intent to oust her competitors for that F3 slot?"

Rarely have I read a prettier sentence.

And I vote 'cynical intent'.

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12-14-15, 01:18 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
Georganna, I wouldn't call it "cynical" per se, but I agree Tasha's just trying to ensure herself an F3 spot and eliminate the guys' easy options.

There's also a bit of sanctimoniousness thrown in for good measure. But I can't even fault Tasha too much for that, because I think most fans are tired of goats being dragged until the end (such as Rob with Phillip and that young girl), and I for one would be thrilled to see an epic F3 such as J/K/S or J/T/S and no goats at the end. Jeremy and Spencer probably said more in that scene, so the most telling thing to me is that the edit allowed Tasha to be portrayed negatively vs. Jeremy and Spencer were somewhat protected.

I originally thought Tasha was stupid to tell Jeremy and Spencer about the women's alliance, but now that we see it was all just a ruse (in Tasha's eyes), I think it was a good play on her part. It's allowed her to sufficiently scare J/S to vote her way the last 2 TCs. So kudos to her. That's why Stephen gave her a Fishy and Redmond/Insider Survivor named her player of the week. (Going with the women's alliance was probably her best end game move, but I understand why she's sticking with J/S.)

Return players tend to overcompensate for their mistakes or downfalls the first time around. So I can see how to Tasha and Spencer having a non-rational wild card like Abi possibly decide their fate at F5 or F4 is very scary, after what happened to them with Kass in their first season.

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58. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 05:19 PM (EST)


And I vote 'cynical intent'.


... and Thank You!

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22. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"














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25. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-15 AT 10:00 AM (EST)

I have felt that Spencer was the winner because he is the story of the second chance. He spoke of modifying his game from last time so he could win. Then we saw him falling into the same old play, but he got the second chance, thanks to luck and swaps, in the second chance season. From him recognizing he really needed to change, we have seen him exemplify it. He bonded, at least with Jeremy, he went boating and fishing like the survivor greats, he told his GF he loved her, he let others drive, then he took the controls, etc, etc. No one is mentioning his name really to boot either.

Then, last episode, he chose to go with loyalty and went with Jeremy and Tasha to vote out Abi. One of his dream goats. So, the question is, can he beat Jeremy and Tasha? Did he make a million dollar mistake?

We also have to note in the above preview that after 1 Survivor is shown, there is Spencer immediately following. Could it be that simple? I don't know?

There is no doubt that Spencer has played the better game this season, but we have seen that he is new at developing relationships and not using people as chess pieces... is it enough? Jeremy seemingly is a master at the social game. Everyone goes to him, he lets others take the lead and he goes along, he gives his opinion, but he let's the others bring up the names. And, I might add, that Kelley does a very good job of that as well. She let's others make the suggestions and she goes along.

We know that Jeremy most likely has one vote on the jury...Stephen. Jeremy played his idol to save Stephen. Jeremy went out of his way to build his core group with the alpha male shields. Those alliance mates, those shields are sitting on the jury now. Will they vote for him and return his loyalty?

So, I don't know. There are still 4 TC's to get through and so much can happen. Is starting with 6 just another ploy to prevent us from figuring out the winner?

The editing tells us that Spencer is the STAR of this show, and it also tells us that the other meaty characters are Jeremy and Kelley. So, I can deduce that Keith (who didn't even get an intro confessional), Kimmi, and Tasha are most likely NOT winning this game. Apparently, Jeremy thinks he is the most deserving and can't wait to tell the jury. All along these people have been talking about their Survivor resume, and how theirs is stacking up. With all of that talk, I think they are going to give it to someone with big moves on their resume. So far, Spencer has made big moves, Kelley has, but the only big move Jeremy made was wasting his idol on Stephen, it didn't save him and it only saved Stephen one round. For me, the only way Jeremy wins is if he indeed pulls something out at the end, and we are seeing no hints of it.

So, at this point, for me, Spencer is our winner. But, I have LOTS of doubt, because there is a lot to get through that we have no clues about, with the exception of Jiffy telling us that they ALL play big. Spencer is a kid, the young lad, while Jeremy is a father of 2, soon to be 3 and a fireman. The jury may just think that Spencer will have a third and fourth chance to win? Who knows. I am not convinced that either Spencer or Jeremy will win at this point! UGH!

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27. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
That 1 Survivor and then showing Spencer would be really hitting us over the head that Spencer wins.

Recent Previous Season Confessional Counts with 7 players still in the game

S25
39 4th Malcolm
36 7th Penner
27 2nd Lisa
24 1st Denise
19 2nd Michael
16 5th Abi-Maria
_6 6th Carter

S26
45 1st Cochran
33 8th Reynold
22 7th Andrea
20 2nd Dawn
15 2nd Sherri
16 4th Eddie
11 5th Erik (Medically Evacuated)
_7 6th Brenda

S27
35 1st Tyson
30 5th Ciera
27 7th Hayden (on RI)
23 2nd Monica
18 8th Katie
17 3rd Gerase
16 6th LauraM
14 4th Tina

S28
52 1st Tony
39 4th Spencer
26 3rd Kass
21 6th Tasha
18 5th Trish
14 2nd Woo
12 7th Jeffra

S29
38 6th Jon
28 4th Keith
25 1st Natalie
22 3rd Missy
26 5th Baylor
20 2nd Jaclyn
15 7th Alec

S0
47 1st Mike
33 4th Rodney
26 2nd Carolyn
25 6th Dan
20 7th Tyler
14 5th Sierra
17 2nd Will

S31
44 Spencer
33 Kelley
27 Jeremy
25 Abi-Maria (7th)
25 Tasha
11 Keith
10 Kimmi

Denise and Natalie (both women) are the ONLY Winners who did NOT have the MOST confessionals with seven players still in the game. Denise was 4th in Confessionals and Natalie was 3rd.

Normal confessional editing would suggest that Spencer wins or he joins the ranks of the only Men with the MOST Confessionals with seven players still in the game who did NOT win: Malcolm and Jon Misch and most likely a woman (Kelley or Tasha) wins.

If Jeremy is our winner he would be the ONLY Male Winner to NOT be #1 in Confessionals with seven players remaining,

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28. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
Wow, Sheldor, this data is fascinating and further proof of the bias against females (but that's another story). So based on this info alone, we should predict that Spencer wins or gets 4th…..and the edit would certainly support that as well.
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32. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
Sheldor! Thanks so much for posting!

What I see when I see the lists of the F6's throughout the later seasons is that the one with the most confessionals is seemingly the "star of the show". And, there is NO doubt that Spencer is that in this season, imho.

In Denise's and Natalie's respective seasons, Malcolm was the star and so was Jon. At least in the eyes of production.

And, it is very interesting indeed that the ONLY two winners that are NOT the stars of their respective seasons are women! WOW.

If this season follows suit, then it's a no brainer and Spencer wins!

Changing topic, yes, Squid! I see the IN on Spencer's neck as they walk to the challenge, and they are all dressed the same walking to the challenge as they are on the mat, so chances are in that later pic, that Spencer has already given back the necklace. Does anyone think there will be an RC?

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33. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
<< Does anyone think there will be an RC?

Hard to imagine how they'd squeeze it in, especially if they want to milk the "first time ever" TC for all it's worth. And seems like they blew the budget on the last reward, although it sure would be nice for the players if there was a food reward in camp or something along those lines. Or could there be a combined RC/IC?

They sure aren't giving us much to work with in the promos….and lately the press pics haven't been coming out until really late, ugh.

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36. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
Very nice work, Sheldor. You made me want to go back a bit further so here are the numbers going back to China. Going further would mean going to seasons where the editing style was very different. For example, in Guatemala, Danni had 30 confessionals entering the finale which is funny considering how light her edit seemed at the time. It's more than any of the finalist in Nicaragua and a lot more than Parvati in Micronesia!!

One World

Kim 39
Chelsea 29
Sabrina 36
Christina 11
Alicia 30
Tarzan 12

So Pathetic

Sophie 16
Coach 57
Albert 13
Ozzy 39
Rick 7
Brandon 26

RI

Rob 66
Phillip 35
Nathalie 7
Ashley 15
Andrea 17
Mike 28

Nicaragua

Fabio 20
Chase 23
Sash 20
Holly 27
Dan 11
Jane 28

HvV

Sandra 21
Parvati 29
Russell 52
Jerri 14
Colby 21
Rupert 28

Samoa

Natalie 9
Russell 80 (!)
Mick 21
Brett 3 (!)
Jaison 23
Shambo 36

Tocantins

JT 42
Stephen 34
Erinn 19
Taj 26
Coach 40
Debbie 10

Gabon

Bob 19
Susie 13
Sugar 34
Matty 32
Ken 32
Crystal 28

Micronesia

Parvati 21
Amanda 19
Cirie 38
Natalie 10
Erik 29
Alexis 16

China

Todd 41
Courtney 18
Amanda 22
Denise 20
Peih Gee 28
Erik 20

With the notable exceptions of Fabio and Bob, we see that male winners always get the majority of confessionals out of the F6 players. Fabio and Bob were mostly out of the loop so they couldn't get as many confessionals. Of the female winners, only Kim received the majority of confessionals.

What's most interesting is that, if Spencer wins and Jeremy finishes second, their pattern would match almost exactly with JT and Stephen's in Tocantins! Even more, Kelley would have numbers similar to the ones that Taj received. Will Jeremy get second place? It seems that he won't be happy.


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42. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
Love this, thanks! Incredible that Russell got 80 confessionals vs. Natalie's nine. No wonder fans were shocked at the time.

Sheldor, you and Michel should send your data/analysis to Jeff Pitman because he tracks and publicizes a lot of things like this.

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43. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
THANKS Michel!

I pulled my Confessional Stats from this Forum but wasn't sure how far to go back as editing has changed over time.

Fabio is kind of a wash between him and Chase and Sash

Fabio 20
Chase 23
Sash 20
Close enough to call that a draw.

Bob is really the only Male winner to be VERY far down from #1 in Confessionals!

Bob 19
Susie 13
Sugar 34

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59. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 05:56 PM (EST)

I think there were three "eras" in Survivor editing. The first spanned the fisrt 6 seasons and gave attention to most of the players. (There were notable exceptions such as Nick in S2 and Zoe in S4 but everyone else had a story)

Then the focus on big players started in PI and that style carried us to around the time of Cook Islands when Probst took over much of Burnett's control of the show. Since then it's big characters and big moves.

As for Nicaragua, yes the three bozos got about as many confessionals but the women had the upper hand for once. Holly and Jane were clearly ahead and, just out of the F6, Na Onka had 50!!

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12-14-15, 01:34 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
FloPo, these same thoughts have been floating through my mind all weekend! The edit seems to favor Spencer, but Jeremy has also gotten the "hero" edit at key points and logic seems to tell us that the jury is stacked with Bayon folks who are Jeremy's friends. I still think Kelley could be a potential winner as well.

One thing that is sticking in mind is all the random "connection" moments and "thank you's" that Spencer has had with just about every player since the merge. But then again, maybe that will be the reason he loses -- he's flipped too much and has had to rely on the kindness of strangers too much.

Of course, Spencer is a popular player and Jeff has even said he's like a son, so it's possible that Spencer would get a great edit no matter what. Guess it will all come down to who makes the big plays Wed. night. I like the fact that there are several possible contenders and not an obvious winner.

Re the finale promo: I dug up the one from Cayagan and Kass had a "winning" quote and Tony was crying, so not sure if we should put too much stock in this vs. the regular episode edits. Perhaps Michel can advise on historical importance and how much we should read into the finale promo.

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37. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
I'm not the promo expert. I would say however that putting "1 Survivor" next to Spencer to give a hint about the winner isn't unprecedented. For example, the introduction promos told us that RI's final three would have two men and one woman. One of the guys was even wearing a baseball cap! The title of China's finale was a clear reference to Todd: "A slippery little sucker". There were others.
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30. "RE: S31 | VidCap Analysis | Ep. 14 *no sources*"
It looks like Spencer is wearing the immunity necklace in the shot where they're walking. So that must be them walking TO the F6 challenge, right?
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35. "Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep. 13"

Survivor - Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep. 13
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiRYMucuDms
Published on Dec 14, 2015

Go behind the scenes with Supervising Producer John Kirhoffer for this week’s Survivor challenge, Step On Up. The two-hour SURVIVOR finale and live one-hour reunion show airs Wednesday, Dec. 16 (8:00-11:00pmET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

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38. "RE: Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep. 13"
Thanks, Sheldor! So sounds like this is a new slide puzzle and Spencer couldn't have memorized it. Still think he should be the favorite to win….although I'm sure he'll be thinking of Kass' come-from-behind win over him on the F4 puzzle in Cayagan.
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12-15-15, 01:33 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep. 13"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 02:43 AM (EST)


This is from Kona ... at MESS

And Spencer would have been
totally frustrated if he had
memorized the planks/steps
from the Redemption Island
Challenge.

Because these are definitely
very different ...



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54. "RE: Behind the Scenes Challenge Ep. 13"
You don't have to memorize a 15 piece slide puzzle as the odds of it being in the same starting position are not good.

Instead you simply memorize one of the methods for quickly solving the puzzle. I like this method.

http://www.chessandpoker.com/fifteen-puzzle-solution.html

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39. "F4 Challenge - Simmotion"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 00:42 AM (EST)

Just found this on the CBS web site -- it says the final immunity challenge is called "Simmotion." I don't recall this one so will have to research it.

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/photos/1004814/what-you-might-not-know-about-the-challenges-from-survivor-cambodia/


ETA: OK, I do remember this one! It's from Tocantins and JT won over Stephen. It's more about mental focus. Very interesting in light of Jeremy saying "I'll be your JT" and Michel's comment above re the confessional analysis.

Here's the link to how it played out in Tocantins:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEJ-DpY1JJQ

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45. "RE: F4 Challenge - Simmotion"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 02:48 AM (EST)


This is also from Kona ... at MESS

And below it is the video found at your link.

Thank you!



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51. "RE: F4 Challenge - Simmotion"
THANKS Georganna!

Simmotion was also a Redemption Island Duel in South Pacific

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drP32WPalF0
Published on Oct 12, 2011

Stacey and Christine test their concentration and coordination in this duel, which determines who stays in the game.

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40. "Press photos are up"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 01:51 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 01:31 AM (EST)

…but I don't know how to access them, ugh. Does anyone else have access to CBS Press Express?

At first (tiny) glance there is a bunch of Spencer.

ETA: Kona at Sucks has screen grabs and says that Kelley is missing from the 2nd batch of press photos (there's a big gap in timing between the 1st and 2nd batch).

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44. "RE: Press photos are up"
Only 19 so far. Here are the thumbnail images...

S31_Finale_SG_001.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_003.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_004.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_005.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_006.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_007.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_008.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_009.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_010.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_011.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_013.JPG

S31_Finale_SG_022.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_023.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_024.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_024.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_026.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_027.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_028.JPG
S31_Finale_SG_029.JPG

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12-15-15, 09:36 AM (EST)
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47. "RE: Press photos are up"
Please can we post the normal size!

If someone could tell me how to do it, I would!

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49. "RE: Press photos are up"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 12:18 PM (EST)


Here are the full-size Press Images from Inside Survivor. They are in Sheldor/Screen Grab Order per Kona at MESS.

... 3:29

... 3:30

... 3:30

... 3:31

... 3:31

... 3:31

... 3:32

... 3:32

... 3:33

... 3:34

... 3:35


GAP


... 4:51

... 4:52

... 4:52

... 4:53

... 4:53

... 4:55

... 4:56

... 4:56

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12-15-15, 01:37 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Press photos are up"
THANK YOU, Georganna! So is there a way to tell if these are all the same day or different days???

Late for a client meeting but a couple quick thoughts:

In the 4:52 shot of Kimmi and Keith talking, Kimmi's hair is different and this appears to be the scene from the first / "Next Time" promo where Kimmi says "no one would expect this."

The 4:53 shot of T/S/J/K is the most interesting one to me, because it appears that Kimmi is making an appeal directly to Spencer and is trying to convince of him of something. Is this part of her/Keith's scheme?

In the last shot of Kimmi in the hammock, that is Jeremy's hand.

Are they trolling us with no Kelley in the post IC shots? Not likely, but could there possibly be a combined IC/RC and she goes alone to a reward? Or perhaps she is putting on an academy award winning performance, pretending she's sulking and knows she's going home and needs alone time, setting up her surprise HII?

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12-15-15, 02:08 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Press photos are up"
SquidProQuo wrote: "So is there a way to tell if these are all the same day or different days???"

No there is not. CBS switched from posting digital camera images with EXIF Date/Time stamp to posting video screen grabs which only have the Date/Time of when the screen grab was made which would have been yesterday.

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12-15-15, 02:53 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: Press photos are up"
Thanks, Sheldor. If these are in the correct order, I was just trying to figure out how Kimmi would have several different hairstyles all in one day. But I suppose it's possible if it's raining.
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Georganna 686 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-15, 04:20 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Press photos are up"

Are they trolling us with no Kelley in the post IC shots? Not likely, but could there possibly be a combined IC/RC and she goes alone to a reward? Or perhaps she is putting on an academy award winning performance, pretending she's sulking and knows she's going home and needs alone time, setting up her surprise HII?

As it's been pointed out at MESS ...

The area I've highlighted and enlarged in the Screen Grab below seems to contain Kelley's checked shirt (shown in the image just below it). So, while it's possible that she was booted without it, I think that she was probably still around when the Post-IC images were recorded.


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Sheldor 839 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-15, 02:15 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: Press photos are up"
Thanks Georganna! The Full Size images were not available last night.

If this Challenge Build Photo is correct

Then the first set of 6 steps only has 3 pegs.
The other 2 sets of 6 steps appear to have 4 pegs.

So in this photo of Keith he is placing his FIRST Green step in the first set of 6 steps.
However Jeremy (Red) and Spencer (Yellow) have already put in their first step.

In this photo Jeremy is untieing his second set of 6 steps.
Spencer (Yellow) and Keith (Green) have already untied their second set of 6 steps.

I assume Spencer and Keith are in the lead at this point.

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12-15-15, 03:17 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Press photos are up"
Thanks so much for posting, Sheldor and G!
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Flowerpower1 1298 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-15, 09:54 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: Press photos are up"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 09:56 AM (EST)

So, I went over to Sucks and read the thread. They are implying that Kelley is voted out first of the 6? The big gap, occurs between the challenge and then all the other pictures, from this one down.

The ones taken at camp are the ones post gap where they don't see Kelley.

Come on, Kelley has an HII, she will play it. We all saw Kelley more than anyone after the last TC vote out of Abi. She knew right then that she was in serious trouble.

This picture of her could be after the IC when she does not win immunity....

Kelley played her idol last time, she will play it again. I do not believe that Kelley would NOT play her idol.

In the press images, the camp shots are all post challenge plotting, when she's not around, clearly. To me, it looks like she will be the target.

Remember this is leading up to the big surprise and the Survivor 1st, where we speculate that both idols are played nullifying the vote, leading to a revote. I would bet that Kelley isn't going anywhere at F6.

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Flowerpower1 1298 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-15, 08:57 PM (EST)
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60. "On further review"
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 08:59 PM (EST)

I think that Kelley will make it through the first TC, at F6, without having to play her idol. I think that Kimmi and Kelley are solidly with each other, at least Kimmi seemed to be in a secret scene. They wanted Spencer out the last episode, but he won immunity.

So, I think at F6, Spencer is most likely to win the IN, there is a slider puzzle at the end, and if he knew how to do that last puzzle, he will certainly know the easy formula to do a slider puzzle. So, Spencer has the IN. Keith is vulnerable and he is the bigger threat to beat Jeremy and Spencer in challenges. In order to avoid a tie at F6, I think they will settle on Keith. *Note that Kimmi has her hair straight down with the buff as a headband when talking to Keith pre F6 TC.

Then, at F5, I think Kimmi may re-emphasize her all girls alliance as the only shot the girls have to win the game. We now see her hair pulled back in a ponytail, as she plots with Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha. This is when I think both Kelley and Jeremy will play their respective idols. Kelley on herself, and then Jeremy will play it on Spencer IF he wins the IN, or Jeremy will play it on himself if he doesn't have the IN. Regardless, Kelley, Jeremy, and Spencer will all be immune, and 3 votes will go to Kimmi, while 2 votes will go to Tasha. Boot at F5: Kimmi.

F4: Kelley/Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha.

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Rembrandt 64 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-15, 05:11 AM (EST)
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46. "Who the survivors should target first to increase their chances to make f3"
Jeremy/Tasha ( Should want to target Kelley out of the 6 first to have the best chance to get to the end. Kelley is a jury threat for being in the minority the whole game and she have a better resume than Keith. )

-----------------

Kelley/Keith ( Should target Jeremy. People might argue who played the better game between Jeremy and Spencer. But to make it further in the game. They need to take out the guy who have an amazing social game. Jeremy is the glue that is keeping his alliance together. He's the glue who basically got Spencer from switching last week. I find their bond so strong that he tried to protect Jeremy from the vote twice. Once before Stephen left and if Stephen would have won immunity, Tasha was the next option. The other was when last week when Keith brought up Jeremy and Spencer shot that down and put the target on Tasha once again. If they take out Jeremy then it would break Kimmi from Tasha and Spencer. But the only thing about this situation is that Kelley and Keith are in the minority and can't call shots, so whoever is willing to flip, they would do what they want.

--------------------

Kimmi ( Should target Spencer. Not only is he a big threat to win this game. But he is the one that can stop her from making final tribal council. If she takes out Spencer. She becomes the most popular survivor at f5. Both sides would want to aligned with her and go to final 3. This might not be a bad move for Jeremy if Spencer is the first to go, but then again she might just stick with Kelley and Keith to the end. )

---------------------

Spencer ( Should target Kimmi. If he takes out Kimmi. Same as Kimmi both sides will need him as he will be the swing vote. )

---------------------

After all of that it makes me believe that Jeremy wins Immunity. Jeremy/Tasha/Spencer tells Kimmi they are voting Kelley ( Jeremy + Tasha's target ). But Kimmi with a different gameplan and wants to take out her target ( Spencer ). So she goes to talk to Kelley and Keith to vote him out. Kelley and Keith wants to target Jeremy, but it isn't up to them at this point because they are in the minority. They would vote whoever Kimmi want, so they would vote Spencer. At tribal council, Jeff ask do anyone want to play their idol. Kelley stands up and plays it on herself. Tasha and Spencer freak out. Jeremy stands up and plays his idol on Spencer. I still believe he plays it on Spencer because it was foreshadowed that he would play an idol on him as well. Jeff reads all the votes and all votes are nullified. The re-vote happens and Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha votes Keith. Kelley and Keith votes Tasha. Kimmi votes Keith to avoid possibly rocks or she didn't want to get rid of Tasha.

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