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"S31 | State of the Spoiling | Episode 4"
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Flowerpower1 967 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-15, 09:11 AM (EST)
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"S31 | State of the Spoiling | Episode 4"
LAST EDITED ON 10-13-15 AT 09:22 AM (EST)

STATE OF THE SPOILING
SURVIVOR 31: Second Chances

Welcome everyone to yet another attempt to re-vitalize Survivor Blows STATE OF THE SPOILING, where we try to collect all the data from around the boards to spoil the episode before it airs. Please feel free to digest, support, or refute, but always remember to BE NICE AND PLAY FAIR!

In the recap for Episode 3, it was Ciera that got the nod with her confessional, "I want to play fearless right from the start", while Spencer promises to change his ways. At challenge beach the tribes were shuffled from 2 to 3 tribes. Some were thrilled with the shuffle, Stephen, Spencer, and Terry; while others were miserable. *cough* Savage and Tasha *cough*. When the newly formed Angkor tribe had to go back to square one with nothing, we knew they were doomed. They lose the IC, Varner was a RAT, and somehow the two in the minority end up running the tribe, thanks to serious dingbats, Abi, Woo, and PG. Tasha and Savage wanted Varner, but it was Pei-Gee that was booted because Abi had it in for her from day one. Now that her nemesis is gone, who will be voted off next?

Let's see what the hype and teases are for the week:

MISDIRECTION CLUES

1. The reward challenge is a “hero” challenge where each tribe puts up ONE PLAYER to run the entire challenge. So, we are finally going to get this challenge:


2. The immunity challenge is blindfolded. This tells us that it is probably the one with a caller that directs tethered together DAWS all around a huge field collecting very large and bulky puzzle pieces.

From CBS:

1. THREE castaways leave it all on the beach in a gut-wrenching challenge
Lots of vidcaps for the "gut-wrenching" RC.

2. TWO castaways plead for their lives in the game at a heated tribal council Duh. That would be the target and the boot decoy. Most likely Woo and Varner. But, will they really be the target? Some might spec that it could be Kelly and Spencer?

3. ONE castaway, Abi-Maria, continues to ruffle feathers with her tribe

So, the question becomes will Abi's ruffling feathers lead to 2 castaways pleading for their lives at TC?

VIDCAPS

First we had our preview promo...

Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor, Angkor is in misery.

Andrew <talking to Tasha>: We survived a night in this hellhole.

Varner: No resources, no shelter, nothing. This is a dead cove.

Andrew: We are in hell right now.

Probst: But they're not the only one's who are suffering.

<players stumbling and falling in blindfold challenge>

Kass: Stop!

Probst: Watch out!

We have dire straits at Camp Angkor and at the IC...While Tasha and Andrew remark that they've survived a night in this he!!hole, we see this on screen:

....followed by these two:

The next promo has to do with the Hero Challenge for the RC:

Probst (@RC): This is a Hero Challenge. Each tribe selects one person.

Probst: All 3 digging deep!

And,

Andrew <camera confessional>: At our new camp, no resources, nothing.

Tasha <camera confessional>: If anyone can survive this, I can.

Jeff Probst <at Reward Challenge>: Select one person.

Jeff Probst <at Reward Challenge>: All 3 digging deep!

Reward Challenge

The press images lay the entire RC out:

First two winning tribes arrive:

Last tribe arrives, WITH WOO, thanks peppermint and Georgianna, the other tribes see that Pei-Gee was voted out at the last TC.

Three tribes hear about the challenge, see the tables with rewards, worth playing for?

Tribes must select someone to run the whole challenge, winner takes all, maybe? On Jiffy's go, run from the mat to the floating platforms and retrieve a weighted sand bag, bring back to shore and then place it on a plank, jump on the end of said plank, and score a basket in the structure. First to score all three bags in the basket, WINS! Since there are 2 tables present, perhaps the second tribe wins a little something too? Loser gets squat!

On Jiffy's go, they race the challenge:




Bringing back the 2nd bag, Terry way out in front, Jeremy second, Andrew in last...

Here we see Jeremy falling behind as Savage and Terry are off to retrieve their final bag...

Final jumps, perhaps?


Immunity Challenge

The immunity challenge is similar to "Winner, winner, Chicken Dinner" that played as an RC in Survivor: World's Apart. Some may remember that a caller directed 2 blindfolded members to retrieve things all over the course. They had to bring them back and load them on a platform while 2 other blindfolded members of the tribe, pulled them up to the elevated platform. Will dropped the platform and it crashed on Kelly's head and she required stitches later.

This variation has a caller on an elevated platform, that directs 2 pairs of blindfolded players out to retrieve very large puzzle pieces and bring them back to their respective mats. Once all pieces are retrieved, they may remove blindfolds and solve very difficult 3D puzzles. Last one done, is a rotten egg and goes to TC.

Here are some shots:

We can see that Varner is the caller for Angkor, Kass is caller for nuTakeo, and Kimmie is caller for nuBayon.

We can also see some of the pairs:

Angkor: Savage/Abi, Woo/Tasha
nuTakeo: Joe/Keith, Terry/Kelley
nuBayon: Jeremy/Kelly, Stephen/Spencer


I love how Joe and Terry are on the same page and have worked out their own strategy....get the puzzle piece and leave your partner left to fend for themselves! #keithandkelleywanderingaimlessly

We love this challenge because our DAWS can and will get hurt...

So...What's the BEEF?

RESULTS

REWARD CHALLENGE

The hero challenge will be run by Savage ~ age 51/Jeremy ~ 36/Terry ~ 55. So, who will win it? Here are two shots to compare. Here is a shot of the supplies left at the new Angkor beach, next to a shot from the vidcaps this week:

Are they the same or different? Yep, you got it, DIFFERENT. I see a golden bowl, a little rack table, 5 skewers, and a wine bottle. I would bet that those skewers had some beef and veggies on them at one point!

Besides. Are these the faces of winners?

Winner: Angkor and Andrew, 2nd Place: nuTaKeo and Terry, Loser: nuBayon and Jeremy

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE

This is a little more difficult to figure out. There are arguments for 2 tribes to LOSE this challenge. First of all, with the vidcaps that we have, I think that Varner is doing the best job calling. We see MORE yellow puzzle pieces retrieved. One would think that they have a lead and would have the best chance to win. Let's look at the clues we have to work with.

1. Preview promo: OFG theory:

Abi-Maria, Varner, Woo, Kelly

2. Promos: CTGirl Theory:

Kelly, Stephen, Ciera

*Note that Kelly Wiggle is a contender for both the OFG, CTGirl theories, hmmmm?

3. Press Images

The press images note that the cameras were in camp Bayon the day OF the RC. Before the RC. The cameras were at camp Angkor the day after the RC. The TDT calendar, located here, which also fits with the RHAP calendar, notes that the first 2 episodes of the season were a normal 3 day cycle, and the third ep was a 2 day cycle. THE FOURTH EPISODE is a two day cycle as well! But, according to the show, TC #3 was on day 9, so the first 3 eps of the show were indeed 3 day cycles. But, this episode will be a 2 day cycle. Thanks to Sheldor we know that the RC took place around 5ish on the first day of episode 4, and the second day of ep 4, should have the IC in the AM, cameras at the losers camp in the afternoon, and the TC in the evening. We see the cameras in camp Angkor starting at 1:28 pm.

I have to impress upon everyone that the cameras last seen in the camps AFTER the IC have ALWAYS been correct in predicting the losing tribe. With this rationale, I think:

LOSERS: ANGKOR

***I want to comment that ALL of our boots to date were on the list of those that DID NOT have an intro confessional. Here they are in review: Vytas, Shirin, Pei-Gee, Woo, Terry, Monica, Stephen, Keith.

So? Who's the boot?

This week, there is a case for three, maybe four people, imo. Let's start with Woo:

1. Woo. Woo has played the game with Tasha before and in fact, she voted for him to win. Woo washed his hands of Varner and Abi last ep. He will totally offer up his loyalty and game to Savage/Tasha. His loyalty and challenge strength are attributes that Andrew respects. If they lose the second challenge as a tribe, they will want to KEEP strength. Woo did NOT have an intro confessional.

OTOH, Woo is on Abi-Maria's hit list. Abi has gotten her way with the last 3 boots. Will she get her way this week? If she does, Woo is toast.

I will add that personally, I do NOT think that Woo will be going home.

2. Abi. Last week Abi did some serious "crotch framing"...

....and look what happened to Pei-Gee. She is a whack job, paranoid, emotional, hard playing wild card. As long as she is in the game logic goes right out the window. (Last week I thought Savage would be screwed by the twist again! NOT!) Often in editing, daws are polarized against each other. Abi was dead set to get PG out since day 1. Now that she is out, will Savage/Tasha come to their senses and boot her unpredictable a$$ out? I hope so!

Woo voted against her for the second time and we heard her turn to him and tell him just that....we were shown that for a reason. Abi was fixated on the fact that she got 4 votes at the first TC, she WILL be fixated on Woo. But, if Woo pledges his loyalty to Savage/TAsha, and let's face it, Woo is on the very bottom and desperate to stay in the game, why do they need to keep Abi?

Here Abi is at the IC...

She looks so annoying....we know that she ruffles feathers at camp, AGAIN!

Spencer told us that she was a cancer to a tribe and DEATHLY to an alliance. If they are to survive, how can they do it with a cancer that is alive and well?

Abi-Maria DID have an intro confessional.

3. Varner. Varner has been the STAR of this show so far, but did he come out too hard, too fast? He was the RAT last episode, but voted with Abi to get a cloud to rain on PG instead of him. In post episode interviews, Pei-Gee said that when she was leaving TC, Tasha yelled, "it was supposed to be VARNER!". It's no surprise that Savage/Tasha wanted Varner out first. Savage thinks Abi-Maria is stronger than Varner and more helpful.

Varner is seen doing the calling at the IC and they have more puzzle pieces collected than the other tribes. In other words, Varner was STRONG at the challenge. So who choked at the puzzle portion? My guess...

Tasha and Andrew. I think the above picture could have been taken when they lose this challenge. If they are in the same mindset as they were last episode, then Varner, our star, could be toast...

Let's face it, as long as Abi is there, it's a crap shoot. Just try to make an educated guess, good luck! Go see CTGirl in the VOTE thread, here. *Also, I do want to mention that if the IC is AFTER the camp shots at Angkor, and there is an outside chance that nuBayon loses the challenge, then I think clearly, Kelly Wiggle would be walking out. But, I believe that Angkor will lose and either Abi or Varner will go.

*Thanks to Survivor Fever, here's a sneak peek at the start of Episode 4, "What's the beef?", located here.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | E... michel2 10-13-15 1
   RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | E... Outsider32 10-13-15 3
       I just thought about something Outsider32 10-13-15 4
 RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | E... Outsider32 10-13-15 2
 RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | E... CTgirl 10-14-15 5
 RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | E... Scarlett O Hara 10-14-15 6
 RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | E... tribephyl 10-14-15 7

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michel2 1168 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-15, 04:33 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | Episode 4"
LAST EDITED ON 10-13-15 AT 04:45 PM (EST)

Great job Flo/Bo-Po!

I think it should be down to Abi or Woo. It's rare that the teases use a player's name. It's usually "one castaway ruffles feathers" not "Abi-Maria ruffles feathers". Would they also name the booted player? If she is the one voted out then we will have to make that a new "theory".

ETA: I just thought of something that could lead to Abi's boot: Terry and Kelly will wonder why Varner voted out one of their own. He could explain that he needed to save himself but if he boots Woo who was very close to those two when they were building the shelter, Varner will lose them. He needs to keep Woo and solidify an alliance with Savage and Tasha.

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Outsider32 392 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-15, 08:19 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | Episode 4"
It is a total crapshoot. I don't see Varner going though. It really has to be Abi but it could be Woo. I think though something would have to happen for them to want Woo out. Like he lashes out(unlikely) at Tasha and Savage or as I have been pondering all week, Varner manages to find the idol clue and idols out Woo over his "goat" Abi.
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Outsider32 392 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-15, 09:05 PM (EST)
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4. "I just thought about something"
If Savage is upset with Abi after the challenge, what if Abi decides to screw up another alliance? Say she gets Savage out? All she would need is Woo to agree.
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Outsider32 392 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-15, 07:58 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | Episode 4"
Is the big board down for anyone else?
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CTgirl 7483 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-15, 10:44 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | Episode 4"
As always, an excellent SOTS FloPo! Angkor goes to tribal but its hard to know who they'll vote out. I'm leaning towards Jeff too.

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Scarlett O Hara 3377 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-15, 11:46 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | Episode 4"
Well done FloPO. As always, you bring everything to light. This ep., I'm thinking that Andrew will have had his fill with Abi and she will be the next to go. Hopefully!!


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tribephyl 11647 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-15, 02:19 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: S31 | State of the Spoiling | Episode 4"
I thank you for another amazing presentation.

I believe that perhaps my lack of time spent compiling notes on my own, may be exactly why I'm not really in agreement with you this week.
I DO believe Woo could be booted. If Angkor indeed loses the IC.
Abi straight up confronted him about his 2nd TC vote for her. And while she could use this to realign Woo into a "let's boot Savage" plan, she most likely will be confrontational about it and target Woo next.

And while it will fly in the face of the 'press image timestamps'. The inclusion of Day9 images, when the TC should have been Day 8, to me means that everyone seen on Day9 should be safe. And guess what...ALL of Angkor can be accounted for.

From there the hints of upcoming storylines were dropped last week, specially regarding Spencer's concerted effort to be socially strategic and his inclusion (above that of Kelly) into the majority on Bayon. Plus, Jeremy's idol (as opposed to a Bayon idol as Stephen suggested) and Stephen's over-confidence about feeling safe... but to me that all points to Bayon indeed being safe again. (If only because it 'feels' more merge storyline stuff.)
On Takeo, I begin with Terry's claim that his tribe has nothing to worry about, physically. He doesn't feel in danger, yet is completely unaware that his own Takeo-mate is throwing him under the bus.
There is also the obvious targetting post-RC were Terry CLEARLY has lost it for Takeo.

A happy tribe awaiting the start of the hero-challenge | A sad/mad tribe after Terry's loss.
And when looking at the caps and the sneak of the IC. While it truly could be won or lost during the puzzle portion...
Kass, as caller, is already having problems communicating with her tribemates.
Are Keith, Kass, Joe and Ciera strong enough to stick together? Well, when Kelley has planted the seeds of duplicity in Terry's garden, combined with Terry being in the minority, combined with Terry's loss of the RC, combined with Terry's non-inclusion as a castaway with an opening confessional, combined with the ongoing avoidance of Terry's son's storyline having any effect on his gameplay, all lead me to think that Terry is booted BEFORE his flight back to the states.

RC: 1st - Savage of Angkor | 2nd - Jeremy of Bayon
IC: 1st - Bayon | 2nd - Angkor
Bootee: Terry


Yet, most likely, I am way off the mark.
In that case, I vote for Woo. (Yet another without an opening confessional)

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