The Amazing Race   American Idol   The Apprentice   The Bachelor   The Bachelorette   Big Brother   The Biggest Loser
Dancing with the Stars   So You Think You Can Dance   Survivor   Top Model   The Voice   The X Factor       Reality TV World
Stop WAR in Ukraine !
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats, but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are encouraged to read the complete guidelines. As entertainment critic Roger Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
"S31|State of the Spoiling|SOTS~Ep 3"
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
Previous Topic | Next Topic 
Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
Original message

Flowerpower1 946 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"

10-07-15, 03:16 PM (EST)
Click to EMail Flowerpower1 Click to send private message to Flowerpower1 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
"S31|State of the Spoiling|SOTS~Ep 3"
LAST EDITED ON 10-07-15 AT 05:26 PM (EST)

SURVIVOR 31: Second Chances

Welcome everyone to yet another attempt to re-vitalize Survivor Blows STATE OF THE SPOILING, where we try to collect all the data from around the boards to spoil the episode before it airs. Please feel free to digest, support, or refute, but always remember to BE NICE AND PLAY FAIR!

Episode one introduced our players throughout the show. According to the editing thread, Woo, Vytas, Terry, Monica, Stephen, Peih Gee, Shirin and Keith didn’t give opening confessionals. Can we take anything away from that? Most seem to think that it doesn't exclude them from having a long run on the show, but could it exclude them as ultimate winner? Certainly did for Vytas AND Shirin! Now we have to think that these with no intro confessional could possibly be our pre-jury boots. At least it's food for thought.

The episode 2 recap told us that 20 got picked for their second chance, Tasha got a shout out with the old, I'm going to win the $ and then pray for forgiveness confessional. Abi-Maria was called out for battling herself, but the real battle was between old school and new school, as we see Shirin representing the new schoolers. Veteren Varner was the one in the middle, Terry, Woo, and Kelly were on the bottom.

We now know that Varner worked some serious magic and flipped the majority alliance into the minority alliance and voted out the supreme schemer and penultimate new schooler, Shirin. Now who's on the bottom, Spencer?


First up we have teases by Jiffy and CBS:


1. I wouldn’t be surprised if several players considered the idea of a two-to-three tribe switch — but you never know for sure, and when it finally hits, it’s pretty powerful. The obvious impact is that it completely changes the game, and for some I will tease that it will be a MAJOR setback.

This is a BIG clue for me in a week where we got nuttin'. Historically when they do big swaps and switch ups the ones on the top, the ones feeling a bit secure or confident that they are in a good place, are the ones that come crashing down. The ones on the top have the most to lose. The biggest "major setback" any of them could have is that they could be the boot. Another way to phrase it is if you are already on the bottom of your alliance in your tribe, is it really a major setback that you find yourself there again? No. Therefore, I predict it will be one of our top dogs that goes this week.

Who are the top dogs? At TaKeo I would say it's Varner and Terry. At Bayon, I would say it's Savage, Jeremy, and maybe Joe.

2. Jiffy goes on to suggest that swaps cause you to have to constantly foolproof strategy.

So someone with only one way to play the game will be toast. The ones that can roll will be safe. Who's been shown already to be able to roll and adapt: Kelley Wentworth and Pei-Geih have rolled. Let's exclude them from the list now.

3. CBS clues: Just days into the game, castaways drop their buffs and switch from two to three tribes. Speaks for itself!

4. a castaway’s future in the game is in jeopardy when they’re caught sending a message to another tribe

Well, when we get the misdirection clues OFG first theorized that some are the boot decoy story and some directly apply to the boot story. This week, I am inclined to think that the switch has more to do with the boot story. The misdirection clues also noted, Tribes grow from 2 to 3 groups, complicating existing alliances. I think the breakup of existing alliances is the key to the boot story this week, while the one caught trying to send a message is the decoy story.

So, who's the rat? Well, most are speculating that the rat is the original rat, Kelly Wigglesworth! Ha! Sounds good to me! But, it could be Jeremy to Andrew, or Andrew to Jeremy?

5. Jiffy also teases that the new Angkor tribe will have to start from scratch. They are just given a few pots/pans/machete and that is it. A disadvantage compared to the other tribes that have fruits, chickens, rice, shelter etc. Angkor's will be starting at square one, and they don't have Survivor MacGuyver!


With the preview promo vidcaps we got this:

Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor, in a season where adapting is everything...

We see Spencer adapting...

Spencer <camera confessional>: Being someone who will not change is the death of you.

Probst: Everyone better be ready to change.

Probst <at challenge lineup>: Drop your buffs. We are switching tribes, from 2 tribes to 3 tribes.

Fishbach: Oh my God.

Then, the only other remaining promo that we have had this week:

Jiffy: This season offers...

...a second chance... change...

....what didn't work the first time...

Spencer(conf): I have to change. I am not the strongest social player out here.

Jiffy: If you don't change, your second chance can end at any time. (As Jeff says this statement we see 5 players up close: Kass, Varner, Kelley, Andrew, and Tasha.)

Jiffy to the tribes: How are you holding up?
Woo speaks for TaKeo: We got that team unity back.

Jiffy: Kass?
Kass speaks for Bayon: This is the love tribe.

Jiffy: IT's a perfect opportunity to change things up.

Pei-Gee: Already???
Jiffy: From two tribes (see Stephen and Joe)... three tribes.

Stephen reacts: Oh my God!

Then see Spencer...

We also have some press images to add....

Drop your buffs...

Drawing for new buffs....

Clearly, they must get tree mail and tell them to report to Challenge beach for a reward challenge of some sort. Bayon does NOT bring the II. They come in and Jiffy drops the bomb on them, the draw for new tribes. Thanks to Inside Survivor we know how the new tribes flesh out:

Now, there are 3 shots of players that we got from the intro, that show them in some kind of future challenge. Here they are:

Here is for beard growth comparison:

You can see that they have arrived at the beach challenge site, so it IS possible that they do an RC here, perhaps to give the new yellow tribe a chance to win some supplies or something? I dunno. You can see yellow apparatus in the water behind Terry.

Regardless, it IS a long shot. According to our historians at Blows, they didn't run RC's and IC's in Cagayan when they were in 3 tribes, just combined RC/IC's.

Thanks to Sheldor, we know that the IC is this:

Draggin' the Dragon. It's a long, very physical challenge with a vertical 3D puzzle at the end. It first aired in Cagayan, episode 1, so Tasha, Spencer, Woo, and Kass have run it before.

Next, I want to point to a few other introductory vidcap shots that I think comes into play with this episode...

Tasha is crying standing next to Woo, and Andrew has his arm around her. *Note the buff-o-matic is in full play here and their buffs should be YELLOW!* I truly believe that the Angkor tribe loses and that is why Tasha is crying here. She knows that she and Andrew are the odd ones out in their tribe. She probably did the puzzle portion to this challenge as she did it before, and she falls short. So she is very emotional that she is the reason that they lost and therefore this could be the end of her game, or Andrew's.


Okay. We really have nothing to go on. I believe that the biggest clue is regarding how the switch will be a major setback for one. It can only be a setBACK for you if you are sitting pretty in the group. So, who is sitting pretty: Varner, Terry, Andrew, Jeremy, Joe.

Due to the Tasha crying shots, I firmly believe that Angkor is the tribe that is losing. One of these people will be our next boot:

Of these people: Varner and Savage are the ones on the tippy top. One of them is having a major setback and I believe that it's Savage. Savage fits for the OFG theory, and the CTGirl Theory. The one who was the victim of "the twist" in his season of the outcasts, will once again be a victim of the twist. Here is what Jiffy had to say AFTER he snuffed Shirin's torch: This season offers you every chance to change your ways, but if you don't, history is destined to repeat itself.

Sounds like SAVAGE is a perfect fit here.

IF, the water challenge is next week then my second choice for boot would be Woo. Woo is NOT exactly on top, but is in the majority alliance so it would be a major setback for him too. But, I am having a hard time justifying that Varner would rather bring Andrew in to replace Woo, who has been nothing but loyal, and KEEP Tasha. But, Tasha has some game to play according to the editing so I do not think that she will go. So, I believe it will be a guy that goes, and I just can't see it being Woo over Andrew. History wouldn't be repeating itself if Woo goes out in a twist either. Woo is not in the preview vidcaps, but he is in the promo.

Another possibility is Stephen, but he's about to be reunited with Spencer, 2 guys on the very bottom, so they, imho, are the least to suffer a major setback with a switch. They only have one way to go and that's up!

Survivor Sucks, Mess Hall is all over the place. Most think Stephen Fishbach will be the boot; some Abi-Maria, Savage, and Woo.

  Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S31|State of the Spoiling|SOTS~... michel2 10-07-15 1
   RE: S31|State of the Spoiling|SOTS~... Flowerpower1 10-07-15 2
 RE: S31|State of the Spoiling|SOTS~... CTgirl 10-07-15 3
 Phenomenal! tribephyl 10-07-15 4
   TRIBE.... Flowerpower1 10-07-15 5
   RE: Phenomenal! Outsider32 10-08-15 6

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Messages in this topic

michel2 1154 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"

10-07-15, 04:23 PM (EST)
Click to EMail michel2 Click to send private message to michel2 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
1. "RE: S31|State of the Spoiling|SOTS~Ep 3"
Great job, FP. You've summed up everything nicely. Can I just add that tasha would also be suffering a major setback: She's in the main alliance of this season's version of the Moto Camp and she winds up in the minority in the Have-Not camp. Can't get worse than that. In a 6 person tribe, eliminating Andrew or Woo would be risky.

Of course, Weasel Woo could be the "reverse" rat: He could be telling Terry and Kelly not to worry because HE'll throw the challenge. That'd get him out very quickly.

  Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Flowerpower1 946 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"

10-07-15, 05:14 PM (EST)
Click to EMail Flowerpower1 Click to send private message to Flowerpower1 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
2. "RE: S31|State of the Spoiling|SOTS~Ep 3"
All good points, michel! Yes, I suppose I should put Tasha in the mix, but I am solid on seeing her play a more devious game so she can play for some forgiveness later.

Yes, wouldn't that be something if it was Woo who's the RAT! And, I think it would spell his demise. Great hypothesis!

  Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

CTgirl 7475 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

10-07-15, 06:21 PM (EST)
Click to EMail CTgirl Click to send private message to CTgirl Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
3. "RE: S31|State of the Spoiling|SOTS~Ep 3"
Awesome, awesome job FloPo. All clues point to Andrew but the ball challenge pics have me flummoxed. I don't think Survivor would hold a reward challenge when you have 3 new tribes to cover. Who knows? It will be an exciting episode though! Thanks for all your efforts.

In my Survivor 31 fan fiction, Stephen and Andrew end up on the same tribe in the next swap (if there is another one) and Stephen votes Andrew out (and then probably gets voted out next, lol). I don't think either of them make the jury.

  Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

tribephyl 11634 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

10-07-15, 07:44 PM (EST)
Click to EMail tribephyl Click to send private message to tribephyl Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
4. "Phenomenal!"

It reads like I would have loved to have presented if I were even slightly talented at it. Wow. Just wow.

Not necessarily outside of the box, but knowing Sucks don't agree, I'm even more confident about the 'slightly left of center' decision.
I will be sad.
Savage was one of my all-time faves.
Sadly, this season proved that he would play the exact same way. And while he will be a victim of a swap, again, it will seem to him to be completely out of his control. And it is, the fate of the game.

In the process and inside my head...

Coming to similar decisions regarding targets; Jeremy, Joe, Savage, Varner, Tasha, Terry. I also added in thoughts about the overall theme (of which you were ALL over in your presentation. Again. Wow!)
In each episode the 'adaptability' of the returnees has been drilled in our heads. Those who change survive, those who don't get snuffed.
Of ALL survivors remaining, Varner, Kelley, Terry have shown adaptability.
Spencer is acutely aware and is promising a new Spencer.
Kelly WAS being forcibly pushed into playing a different game, but went along with 'the plan' anyways.
Abi is, by proxy, being forced into playing different, even though she is still a stuck up brat. Plus, she has Varner standing behind her holding her shoulders and using her as a sheild.
Woo IS playing a similar game to last time, but also seems to be a centerpoint for a lot of the activity on Old-Takeo. His connection to Varner (via Terry) should speak to keeping him at this time.

Conversely, we have Jeremy; playing the exact same game as last time and probably going to be a victim of being in the minority on a newly shuffled tribe.
Savage; Playing the exact same game as last time, even to the point of cementing his decision on an Omega.
In fact, his 'Lil' could be Stephen, but it's obvious from the editing that Stephen is focusing on Joe. Does Savage fall off the storyline at that point?
Tasha and Kass have voiced (and shown, to a degree) a promise to change. I expect to see more from both of them soon.
Kimmi, Monica and Ciera all promise nothing at the moment. So while one of them could be the victim, all of them are in the majority of their new-tribe configurations and all of them appear to be Jury bound anyways.
Joe and Stephen. Are destined to face off at the merge. Safe for now.
That leaves who? ... oh Keith. Ummm... safe?

(With Savage, Joe, Jeremy and Tasha as the main members of the Bayon-Strong, it's gonna be important for them to communicate with each other while they are split apart, as well as become one of our targets.)
Of those 4, Tasha is the ONLY one to be shown/heard making a change in her gameplay... she will last.
Leaving Jeremy, Joe and Savage.
Joe, as discussed earlier, should be destined for merge.
So, Jeremy OR Savage?


When looking at the NEW tribes...

On new formed Angkor; Varner will be able to control his ladies and Woo is only separated from Varner by Terry. At that point, I believe, the Old-Takeo will be saavy enough to stick together and separate one of the "previously comfortable" from their major alliance.
On Nu-Bayon; in order for Jeremy to go... Spencer and Kelly have to be exactly what Kimmi and Stephen were hoping for. While possible, I just don't know about it.
So... leads me back to Savage.

The new enemies...

Those whom adapt...

Toucan Wood... what?

  Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Flowerpower1 946 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"

10-07-15, 10:20 PM (EST)
Click to EMail Flowerpower1 Click to send private message to Flowerpower1 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
5. "TRIBE...."
Now that was just:


  Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Outsider32 375 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"

10-08-15, 00:20 AM (EST)
Click to EMail Outsider32 Click to send private message to Outsider32 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
6. "RE: Phenomenal!"
Well it's Kelley vs.Terry. Tasha/Savage was right.
  Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Lock | Archive | Remove

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
about this site   •   advertise on this site  •   contact us  •   privacy policy   •