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"Confessionals Tracker S31"
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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09-23-15, 11:40 AM (EST)
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"Confessionals Tracker S31"
I will kick things off this week, after that y'all are on your own, figure it out.

The basic confessionals count is fairly simple, this one then that one and blahblahbla. Judgement calls can complicate things.

Last season someone had a voice-over in the premiere opening segment, unidentified and no one could figure out who said it, and I eventually decided to not count it. If no one knows who said it then it does not matter

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Week 0 dabo 09-23-15 1
 Intro dabo 09-24-15 2
 Week 1 dabo 09-24-15 3
   RE: Week 1 Flowerpower1 09-24-15 4
       RE: Week 1 dabo 09-24-15 5
 Week 2 Flowerpower1 10-01-15 6
   RE: Week 2 dabo 10-01-15 7
 Observation Flowerpower1 10-08-15 8
   RE: Observation Corvis7 10-08-15 9
   RE: Observation michel2 10-08-15 10
 Week 3 Flowerpower1 10-11-15 11
   RE: Week 3 Sheldor 10-11-15 12
 Week 4, "What's the Beef" Flowerpower1 10-17-15 13
   RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef" Sheldor 10-17-15 14
       RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef" Georganna 10-17-15 15
       SHELDOR IS GENIOUS Flowerpower1 10-17-15 17
           RE: SHELDOR IS GENIOUS Sheldor 10-20-15 20
   RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef" Georganna 10-17-15 16
       RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef" Flowerpower1 10-17-15 18
   RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef" michel2 10-19-15 19
 Week 5 Flowerpower1 10-23-15 21
   RE: Week 5 Georganna 10-27-15 22
 Week 6, Ep 6 Flowerpower1 10-30-15 23
   RE: Week 6, Ep 6 CTgirl 10-30-15 24
       RE: Week 6, Ep 6 Flowerpower1 10-30-15 25
           RE: Week 6, Ep 6 CTgirl 10-30-15 26
               RE: Week 6, Ep 6 Flowerpower1 10-31-15 27
   RE: Week 6, Ep 6 michel2 10-31-15 28
   RE: Week 6, Ep 6 Sheldor 11-04-15 29
 Week 7 Flowerpower1 11-08-15 30
   RE: Week 7 Georganna 11-08-15 31
   RE: Week 7 Georganna 11-08-15 32
   Retrospect Ep 7 Flowerpower1 11-12-15 33
       RE: Retrospect Ep 7 CTgirl 11-12-15 34
 Week 8 Flowerpower1 11-13-15 35
   RE: Week 8 coldbrewer 11-17-15 36
 Week 9, The Witches Coven Flowerpower1 11-20-15 37
   Nice observations FP Dusty2004 11-24-15 38
 Week 10 Flowerpower1 11-28-15 39
 Episode 11 Flowerpower1 11-28-15 40
 Episode 12 Flowerpower1 12-04-15 41
   RE: Episode 12 SquidProQuo 12-06-15 42
 Episode 13 Flowerpower1 12-10-15 43

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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09-23-15, 12:00 PM (EST)
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1. "Week 0"
LAST EDITED ON 09-24-15 AT 08:57 AM (EST)

reply with quotes to see the codes.


episode | 1 | 2| 3 |...
Abi-Maria T |
Andrew B |
Ciera B |
Jeff T |
Jeremy B |
Joe B |
Kass B |
Keith B |
Kelley T |
Kelly T |
Kimmi B |
Monica B |
Peih-Gee T |
Shirin T |
Spencer T |
Stephen B |
Tasha B |
Terry T |
Vytas B |
Woo T |

TOTEM POLE

Abi-Maria T 0
Andrew B 0
Cierra B 0
Jeff T 0
Jeremy B 0
Joe B 0
Kass B 0
Keith B 0
Kelley T 0
Kelly T 0
Kimmi B 0
Monica B 0
Peih-Gee T 0
Shirin T 0
Spencer T 0
Stephen B 0
Tasha B 0
Terry T 0
Vytas T 0
Woo T O

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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09-24-15, 09:20 AM (EST)
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2. "Intro"
Long intro segment deserves special attention, will be completing the week 1 counts in a later post. And honest to goodness main titles!


episode | I | total
Abi-Maria T | 1 |
Andrew B | 1 |
Ciera B | 1 |
Jeff T | 1 |
Jeremy B | 1 |
Joe B | 1 |
Kass B | 1 |
Keith B | 0 |
Kelley T | 1 |
Kelly T | 1 |
Kimmi B | 1 |
Monica B | 0 |
Peih-Gee T | 0 |
Shirin T | 0 |
Spencer T | 1 |
Stephen B | 0 |
Tasha B | 1 |
Terry T | 0 |
Vytas B | 0 |
Woo T | 0 |

Title sequence order: Kelly, Woo, Kelley, Spencer, Peih-Gee, Jeff, Abi-Maria, Vytas, Shirin, Terry, Jeremy, Ciera, Andrew, Kimmi, Keith, Monica, Stephen, Kass, Joe, Tasha.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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09-24-15, 10:50 AM (EST)
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3. "Week 1"
LAST EDITED ON 09-24-15 AT 04:12 PM (EST)

Idol antics shoots Kelley to the top of the totem pole, with a silently seething Abi-Maria hot on her heels. Everyone got at least one confessional, it seemed that tiny Monica would zero but then the camera caught her, briefly.


episode | I | 1 |total
Abi-Maria T | 1 | 3 | 4
Andrew B | 1 | 1 | 2
Ciera B | 1 | 1 | 2
Jeff T | 1 | 2 | 3
Jeremy B | 1 | 1 | 2
Joe B | 1 | 1 | 2
Kass B | 1 | 1 | 2
Keith B | 0 | 2 | 2
Kelley T | 1 | 4 | 5
Kelly T | 1 | 1 | 2
Kimmi B | 1 | 1 | 2
Monica B | 0 | 1 | 1
Peih-Gee T | 0 | 1 | 1
Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 2
Spencer T | 1 | 2 | 3
Stephen B | 0 | 2 | 2
Tasha B | 1 | 1 | 2
Terry T | 0 | 1 | 1
Woo T | 0 | 1 | 1
Jury
Eliminated
Vytas B | 0 | 2 | 2

TOTEM POLE

Kelley 5
Abi-Maria 4
Jeff 3
Spencer 3
Andrew 2
Ciera 2
Jeremy 2
Joe 2
Kass 2
Keith 2
Kelly 2
Kimmi 2
Shirin 2
Stephen 2
Tasha 2
Monica 1
Peih-Gee 1
Terry 1
Woo 1

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Flowerpower1 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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09-24-15, 02:05 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Week 1"
I thought I would try to keep track as well, just to see how I stacked up and this was my final EPISODE ONE totals:

*Kelly Wentworth: 4
Abi-Maria: 4
*Spencer: 3
*Varner: 3
Kelly Wigglesworth: 2
Savage: 2
Kimmie: 2
Ciara: 2
$Tasha: 2
Joe: 2
Kass: 2
$Jeremy: 2
Keith: 2
Stephen: 2
Vytas: 2
Shirin: 2
Woo: 1
Terry: 1
Pei-Gee: 1
Monica: 1

*I have placed a star next to the ones that had meaty confessionals talking about their last game in relation to how they want to play this one, with actions shown to support their words...

Confessionals that are not starred were fluff or them talking about their first game that they played and how they want to play differently, but are shown to play the exact same way.

$Denotes Million Dollar confessionals...

For me, Kelly Wentworth had some meaty confessionals. First stating that he Dad was tough to play with the last time, but now she felt more free to start making her own moves in the game. This confessional was followed by us SEEING her make her own moves. Choosing to go look for coconuts and palm fronds so she could hunt for the idol and then getting it. Her actions underlined her previous confessional. She's a character to watch. She probably got a starring role in this ep as she did find the HII.

Next was Abi-Maria. In contrast she told us she wanted to act differently but then her actions showed us she wasn't going to. She got a lot of confessionals to highlight this contrast and because she was a boot target.

Spencer was a real star of this show. He, imo, had the best edit in the first episode. He stated what he did wrong the last time, how he's changed, matured, and is ready to play recognizing he needs to treat people as important and not just as chess pieces. Then we were shown him connecting to people, putting the time in and working hard. But, also had a confessional about thanks for having your dad trust me but I don't trust anyone in this game! If I had to pick a winner from this FIRST ep, it would be him. SHOCKING!

Varner: To me, he was the man in the middle, again, but he seems to recognize his position and he wants so badly to accommodate. His statement about how he's almost 50 and most men that age are in a mid life crisis, but he's having a mid-life quest, makes me think he's our journey player this season.

Interesting to note that the most confessionals came out of the tribe that lost the challenge and went to the TC. Expected. Doesn't mean we ignore the other tribe, however. I thought Jeremy and Tasha were in the best spot on the Bayon tribe. Tasha has declared that she will play differently, and Jeremy says he's no longer burdened and unfocused by his wife being there, but Jeremy is setting out to do the same thing he did in his last show, but he's collecting an alliance that is far more diff't than his last one of all girls. Tasha has yet to be seen doing things differently but she sure has declared that she will.

I was not impressed with the following: Andrew Savage, Joe, Kass, Woo, Terry, Pei-Gee, Monica, Keith, Vytas,

Poor Stephen.

*I did not separate confessionals if it was a continuation of the same one....but should I?


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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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09-24-15, 03:32 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Week 1"
In general the split is if another player has a confessional before a continuation. Or when there is a commercial break, of course.

Other things become judgment calls. Was there a change of subject? Did something noteworthy occur before the continuation? Did one player so dominate a segment that it was worth reviewing to determine how to count it out (since mainly the counts are supposed to reflect personal attention being paid to the players)?

Splitting up the Kelley confessionals during the immunity challenge was a judgment call because a lot of challenge had played out and (more importantly) she had a special game dilemma to face and work out. A shift, a new element! (I also thought she played it smart waiting to make her move until she could be certain no one was paying her any attention.)

Love how you improved the counts with meaty and money designations!

Kelley and Spencer certainly stood out, in good ways. Abi-Maria trying to control herself was an interesting story; Survivor is going to break her down again if she survives long enough. And oh I do love Varner, he is still a great character. Defining the show as a clash between old school and new school -- Will he be able to find his balance?

Yeah, poor Stephen.

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Flowerpower1 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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10-01-15, 04:02 PM (EST)
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6. "Week 2"
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-15 AT 04:03 PM (EST)

Okay, first attempt at flying solo without dabo! I count one continual confessional as one that is only broken by the action that supports the confessional. If others have confessionals in between, I count them as different confessionals.

episode | I | 1 | 2 | total
Abi-Maria T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8
Andrew B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Ciera B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2
Jeff T | 1 | 2 | 5$| 8
Jeremy B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3
Joe B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Kass B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Keith B | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2
Kelley T | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7
Kelly T | 1 | 1 | 1 |3
Kimmi B | 1 | 1 | 0 |2
Monica B | 0 | 1 | 0 |1
Peih-Gee T | 0 | 1 | 2 |3
Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 |6X
Spencer T | 1 | 2 | 5 |8
Stephen B | 0 | 2 | 1 |3
Tasha B | 1$| 1 | 0 |2
Terry T | 0 | 1 | 2 |3
Woo T | 0 | 1 | 1 |2

Jury
Eliminated
Vytas B | 0 | 2| 2X
Shirin | 0 |2 | 4 | 6X

TOTEM POLE

Abi-Maria: 8
Jeff V: 8$
Spencer: 8
Kelley Went: 7
Shirin: 6X
Andrew: 3
Jeremy: 3$
Joe: 3
Kass: 3
Kelly Wig: 3
Peih-Gee: 3
Stephen: 3
Terry: 3
Cierra: 2
Keith: 2
Kimmie: 2
Tasha: 2$
Woo: 2
Monica: 1

Those that have had million dollar quotes: $


ETA: Noting that the columns are seriously not lining up...ugh.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-01-15, 09:55 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Week 2"

Thumbs Up!
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Flowerpower1 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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10-08-15, 02:33 PM (EST)
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8. "Observation"
We all have to notice that the boot this week ALSO came from the list of those that had no introductory confessional in episode 1!!!

Here's the list:

Woo, Vytas, Terry, Monica, Stephen, Peih Gee, Shirin and Keith

Are ALL our pre-jury boots on this list?


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Corvis7 75 desperate attention whore postings
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10-08-15, 06:21 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Observation"
One word: Vecepia.
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michel2 1313 desperate attention whore postings
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10-08-15, 07:53 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Observation"
Great job, FP.

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Flowerpower1 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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10-11-15, 12:18 PM (EST)
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11. "Week 3"
*Please note that the columns just don't line up. So, when looking at them, the most recent episode count is always just left of the total. Regarding the other episodes, just count from the INTRO, ep 1, ep 2, ep 3, and so on. Thanks. The letters at the start after their names are the tribes that they have been on. I have also listed the daws in order of most confessionals to least.

episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 |total

Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 |11
Spencer T/B | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |11
Abi-Maria T/A | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |10
Kelley T/T | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |7
Andrew B/A | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |6
Jeremy B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 |6
Tasha B/A | 1$| 1 | 0 | 4 |6
Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |6X
Terry T/B | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |5
Stephen B/B | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |5
Joe B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |4
Kass B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |3
Ciera B/T | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |3
Kelly T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |3
Keith B/T | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |2
Kimmi B/B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |2
Monica B/B | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |2
Woo T | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2


Eliminated
Vytas B | 0 | 2| 2X
Shirin | 0 |2 | 4 | 6X
Pei-Gee | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X

This was a telling episode. I think that there were 3 people with impressive showings.

First of all Jeremy got 3 confessionals, all revolving around making a bond with Spencer, and finding the HII. His stock is going up.

Second, Spencer had meaty confessional after meaty confessional. He wasn't narrating, he was speaking of his lessons learned, admitting his weaknesses and how he has hope, that he can take advantage of this second chance in a season of second chances. Then we saw him give a nod to the Survivor gods, that they also want him to have a second chance, then he was employing his new found strategy, actually getting to know and forming bonds with his fellow players by employing honesty. WOW! He's hit rock bottom last ep and is heading on up.

Third, we have Tasha. She was shown in the intro recap last episode, and she hit the scene this week with a starring role. Jeff first gave her a nod as he noted, "Tasha, always with a smile!". She responded, "I'm glad to be here, Jeff". I have to note her intro conf. was something like, I'm going to win the million $, and then pray for forgiveness, which sounds like she is going to be a ruthless player. This episode stars Tasha because as she tells us in her first conf, "I'm in the minority on this tribe", but she adds, "If anyone can survive this, I can. What I learned the first time I played is that I am strong at heart, I am here to win this game and I am going to play the cards that I am dealt!" She's provided insight to her game, then we see that she bonds with Abi, and has a plan with Savage. She's employing her plan. She then notes that "Abi has a little bit of resentment for PG, that works in my favor", and then she's going to use every moment of time to strategize and converse to turn it in her favor. We see her doing just that. Finally, she had the last confessional before TC about how her options were opening up. The confessional makes it appear that it's Tasha's choice as to who will go home. Looking good for Tasha.

Andrew Savage also had a spike in his confessionals, but I think he was more narrational and he told of being victim of the twist in PI. While he had a strong presence with Tasha, I felt that Tasha got most of the credit for flipping the crazy old TaKeo's.

Those Daws that steady steady = Terry, Joe ~ funny, these two are just enamored with each other!

Those daws that had a dip: Varner, Spencer, Abi, Kass, Kelly; Those with a little uptick: Stephen, Monica, Ciera

Under the radar: Kass, Kelly, Kimmie, Woo

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Sheldor 823 desperate attention whore postings
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10-11-15, 04:45 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Week 3"
...and the 5 that did NOT get an opening Intro confessional but are still in the game have the following confessional counts
  1. 5 = Stephen
  2. 5 = Terry
  3. 2 = Keith
  4. 2 = Monica
  5. 2 = Woo

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Flowerpower1 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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10-17-15, 11:33 AM (EST)
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13. "Week 4, "What's the Beef""
LAST EDITED ON 10-17-15 AT 11:36 AM (EST)

episode--------| I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |total

Jeff T/A--------| 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
Abi-Maria T/A-| 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13
Spencer T/B--| 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12
Andrew B/A---| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11
Kelley T/T-----| 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9
Tasha B/A-----| 1$| 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9
Jeremy B/B---| 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 8
Terry T/B------| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5
Stephen B/B--| 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5
Kass B/T------| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5
Woo T/A------| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4
Joe B/T-------| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4
Monica B/B---| 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3
Ciera B/T------| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3
Kelly T/B -----| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3
Keith B/T -----| 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2
Kimmi B/B----| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2


Eliminated
Vytas-----| 0 | 2| 2X
Shirin---- | 0 |2 | 4 | 6X
Pei-Gee --| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
Jeff-------| 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X

Now the confessionals are starting to get interesting, imo. The players that have left the game are all from the original Takeo tribe. Varner was the star of the show up until now, and we see his arc was truly an arc, peaking at episode 2, when he managed to turn the minority into the majority. Sadly, it had no where to go but down.

So, with that in mind, I am drawn to Savage's confessionals. He peaked this week with his HERO edit in the challenge. His confessionals are all about him. Will this week be the peak of his "arc" as well? We will have to watch that. We know that with "big" characters, a la Hantz, Boston Rob, Tony V, that they can have huge confessional spikes up and down for the entire season. They are such big characters that they "steal" the show. So, we have to consider that Andrew is either one of those big characters, or this could be the peak of his performance.

When you look at it logically, he was shown to be the leader of the old Bayon tribe, but now he's switched to the cursed Angkor tribe, where he was their hero in the hero challenge this week. Comparatively, Tasha is doing more work with manipulating the players over at Angkor. So, I don't really see Andrew as a "star" of this season. His confessional content also was a bit telling...we are in he!!, went from Shangra-la to the Survivor ghetto, everything is bleak and barren....only 1 snail. Then, to the conf where he got vindication for myself, hadn't eaten in 4 days, one of the best moments of my Survivor life. He's even commenting on this pinnacle of his Survivor life. So, I am afraid that Savage has already had his peak? So, will he make it to merge, or will he crash and burn in a couple of episodes? He could strike up again if and when they merge back together, but will it be too late by then? We'll see.

Tasha's definitely become a part of the story with her swap to Angkor. She's the one seen doing the work at this tribe with Abi management. She's a player so far, but like Andrew, can the Angkor tribe make it to the merge?

Woo got a bump as he was in the crosshairs this week. And, he fought for himself, which could be a nod from the editors.

It's important to note the ones getting confessionals at the other tribes that are not in the drama. At nuBayon, Jeremy has 2 confessionals, the first about loving his HI, and the other about manipulating Stephen, bring him close so he'll tell him when he's in trouble, he'll be his JT and let him come in second, but second isn't good enough for him. Is that a "money quote"? I think it could be considered as one! Jeremy is giving us insight into his strategy, and I think he's an important part of the story at least at Bayon. He's playing the same way that he did last time, I think, but with some important tweaks. Last time he pulled all the girls in first, (Missy, Kelley, Natalie, and Keith*snark*) which made him the shield that everyone aimed for. This time, he stated right from the start that he wanted all the alpha's in his alliance so THEY could be the shield and we saw him on day one choose Andrew, Joe, Keith, and Tasha. Let's see how it works out for him! Regardless, him having the HI is a positive thing so far for him, plus being on a tribe that hasn't lost is also encouraging.

Spencer and Monica were the 2 others that had confessionals on nuBayon. The fact that they were picked could be foreshadowing for them. Spencer told us about his strategy to throw Kelly under the bus, and Monica told us her strategy to keep the women strong and get rid of Spencer first. When and if the nuBayon's go to TC, and it looks like they WILL next week, these 2 are at the heart of the drama. One is getting a POSITIVE tease by Jiffy, the other not. Foreshadowing? If Spencer gets a big bump in his confessionals next week, we see that he's already had a spike in ep 2, he could be one of those "stars" of this season.

At nuTakeo, the only two that got confessionals were Kass and Kelley. Kass is getting a great edit which underlines the crux of the show, just as Spencer is. So, it's looking good for Kass, imo. Kelley is shown to be always suspicious and on guard. She's steady in the mix at this point, in my opinion. All others on NuTakeo, UTR. They will not be going to TC next week.

Under the radar players this week: Terry, Stephen, Joe, Ciera, Kelly, Keith, Kimmi. Will any of these be surprise boots next week?

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Sheldor 823 desperate attention whore postings
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10-17-15, 03:36 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef""
Thanks FlowerPower!!!

Previously you wrote: "ETA: Noting that the columns are seriously not lining up .ugh."

That's because you need to use a Monospace/Fixed Width font.

I've found the best method to force a Monospace/Fixed Width font is the "code" HTML tag.
Then you don't have to use multiple "-" to attempt to make the columns line up.

For instance I took your list and made the following changes:

  • Used "code", "u" (Underline), and "b" (Bold) HTML Tags
  • Removed the multiple "-"
  • Changed 0 Confessionals to a "." to make them stand out more at a glance.
That results in this list:
episode       | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |total

Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
Abi-Maria T/A | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13
Spencer T/B | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12
Andrew B/A | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11
Kelley T/T | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9
Tasha B/A | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 9
Jeremy B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 8
Terry T/B | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 5
Stephen B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 5
Kass B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 5
Woo T/A | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 4
Joe B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 4
Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 3
Ciera B/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 3
Kelly T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | 3
Keith B/T | . | 2 | . | . | . | 2
Kimmi B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2


Eliminated
Vytas | . | 2 | 2X
Shirin | . | 2 | 4 | 6X
Pei-Gee | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
Jeff | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X

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Georganna 670 desperate attention whore postings
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10-17-15, 04:13 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef""
LAST EDITED ON 10-17-15 AT 11:15 PM (EST)

I've wondered for a long time
how the even spacing was accomplished ...

So, I tried it ...

I did it ...

Thank you! ...

G

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10-17-15, 04:28 PM (EST)
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17. "SHELDOR IS GENIOUS"
OMG, SHELDOR! You are the MASTER....well, uh, you and TRIBEY are the MASTERS! You can do ANYTHING! So appreciative so thanks so much! #can'twaittillnextweek! xoxo

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10-20-15, 05:47 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: SHELDOR IS GENIOUS"
I just know enough HTML to be dangerous!

You're welcome. Glad to help out! I made the same suggestion regarding the "code" HTML tag to dabo a few seasons ago.

Sheldor

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10-17-15, 04:20 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef""
LAST EDITED ON 10-17-15 AT 04:21 PM (EST)

Thank you!

I appreciate both the information that the numbers provide and the informed analysis that accompanies them.

As always, you simply do good work, FP.


G

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10-17-15, 04:35 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef""
Thanks, G! Please feel free to throw in your two cents regarding any confessionals as well. I always have enjoyed the confessionals and the different kinds of confessionals, as Corvis used to note. There really is a difference between dynamic confessionals, talking about tribe dynamics, and strategies, personal or tribal vs. straight narrational confessionals.

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10-19-15, 04:34 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Week 4, "What's the Beef""
Thanks for doing this, FP. Very interesting comments.

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10-23-15, 02:37 PM (EST)
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21. "Week 5"
LAST EDITED ON 10-23-15 AT 02:49 PM (EST)


A HUGE THANKS to SHELDOR!!!


episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |total

Abi-Maria T/A| 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15
Spencer T/B | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15
Andrew B/A | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 11
Tasha B/A | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11
Kelley T/T | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10
Jeremy B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 10
Terry T/B | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | 6
Stephen B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 6
Woo T/A | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 6
Kass B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5
Joe B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5
Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
Kimmi B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | 4
Ciera B/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 3
Kelly T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 3
Keith B/T | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 3


Eliminated
Vytas | 0 | 2 | 2X
Shirin | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
Pei-Gee | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
Jeff | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
Monica | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X

This week the star of the show was Spencer, with the most confessionals. He is the one of the chosen to exemplify the second chance theme. We saw that when he was in old Takeo that he schemed and almost was booted. So with his "second chance" in the second chance season, in the nuBayon tribe, he's employing a different strategy, and that's what all his confessionals were about. Regardless of him being on losing tribes and always seemingly at risk, he manages to escape the boot. Reminds me a little bit of Eliza. Spencer does appear to be one of the stars of this season. To me, the content of his confessionals almost makes it like he is the "journey" player this season. Will Spencer's big take away from the game be maturation and coming of age, rather than the million $? Spencer's confessionals are more than just narrational.

Abi-Maria and Tasha, both with 2 confessionals are also strong players this season. Or, at least important to the story. But, Abi is clearly our villain, and one of Tasha's confessionals were about Abi management, while the other was meatier, telling us about her game playing. I found it fun, now that we know that there is a merge next episode, to hear the foreshadowing with Tasha and Abi. Tasha: In a merge situation she's going to be twice as hard to maneuver. She's a ticking time bomb...

Abi is a strong character this season because she is a black hole that wrecks havoc on everything and everyone, yet, she's still here. She will be a big character for as long as someone is willing to step up and manage her. Tasha has seemingly done most of the work at Angkor and she and Andrew have swung it around. Will Tasha fly under the radar again if she gets on a tribe without Abi? We'll see.

Woo also got 2 confessionals this episode and I felt like it was a hero nod, a sort of redemption edit. He's shown as being grateful to have the second chance to help his tribe, he was shown winning both the RC and the IC for his tribe, I thought, so clearly, the decision to keep him was a wise one. Then, we get his inspiration confessionals. His mom got her second chance and he's going to use that as his inspiration along with all of those that got him here. Woo had a highlight episode. But, Abi is clearly still at odds with Woo. Will Woo write her name down one more time and then get axed? In other words, were the last two episodes the peak of Woo's arc?

The other stars of this episode are at camp nuBayon. Jeremy was chosen as a central figure that they all went to, (Kimmie went to him, as did Stephen, Monica, and Spencer). He strikes me as an "integral" part of this tribe. Jeremy gave narrational confessionals, "who does he trust more?", and then, "what is Monica doing? Why would Monica go do this and that?"

Kimmi got 2 confessionals and she was the one that chose the boot and convinced the others. Kimmi's confessionals were about how annoying Monica was, and then how Monica wants a girls alliance, she's a flipper...Kimmi turned the boot into eliminating one of their own. Will this have major consequences later?

Monica had 2 confessionals as the boot target. At first she was narrational, but her confessional turned into "we could be here another 27 days, and if we just keep eating everything in the water then there won't be a lot left. Not living day to day as she did last time, now she's looking more at the end of the game". This to me was a dead giveaway that she was this episodes boot.

Terry, Kelley, Stephen, Joe all got 1 confessional. Terry is at club Tropical camping trip, loving life, as blind as ever to the people he is surrounded by, while Kelly is still continuing to kick him under the bus, and joining up with everyone but Terry. Joe, who thinks he's playing differently this time, wants to join up with numbers. I wonder if Joe is on crack? If he doesn't have Terry with him, he is the ONLY shield out there. They all tell him, "no, we won't vote you off", and he falls for it. And, what's more, he thinks he's playing a lot better game so far, where I see him as playing the same game. So, Joe's confessional doesn't give me confidence. Here's how I see this: Terry and Joe's stock goes down, Kelley's goes up. Stephen's confessional was strictly narrational.

All others under the radar:
Savage: Had the pinnacle of his edit last episode with the hero challenge, will it be the pinnacle of his game as well?
Kass: Seen but not heard, except she did say, and "be nice to Terry", so shown being sensitive to others, which is different than she played last time.
Ciera: seen but not heard from. She seemed to be the leader of the strategizing, so interesting that we don't get any confessionals from her. This makes me lean toward her NOT being successful. We see others listening to her, but we don't get to hear it from her.
Kelly: For one on the bottom of the totem pole and we heard NOTHING from her...?

AT risk players: Those that MAY have already had the pinnacle of their edit play out: Woo, Andrew, Terry?, Kass?, Stephen?

Players that appear to NOT be significant to the story of the season: Keith*, Kelly, Ciera, Kimmi*

*Kimmi and Keith get confessionals when they have been under the radar, if they go back down, that's a good thing, but if they continue to have confessionals, their arcs could be on their way.

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10-27-15, 03:16 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Week 5"
LAST EDITED ON 10-27-15 AT 04:27 PM (EST)

Thank you, Flowerpower ...

Things are not only looking
Really good in here ...
They're sounding great!


I'll offer
A verse that might have been written
With Abi-Maria and her Managers, Shirin and Tasha,
In mind ...

There were two young ladies from Niger,
Who smiled as they rode on a Tiger.
They returned from the ride,
With the ladies inside,
And the smiles on the face of the Tiger!

If William Cosmo Monkhouse had been
A Survivor fan ...


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10-30-15, 01:43 PM (EST)
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23. "Week 6, Ep 6"
LAST EDITED ON 10-30-15 AT 01:43 PM (EST)


episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total

Spencer T/B | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 20
Abi-Maria T/A| 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | 15
Andrew B/A | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 15
Tasha B/A | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 11
Kelley T/T | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 11
Jeremy B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 11
Terry T/B | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
Woo T/A | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
Kass B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 10
Stephen B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 9
Joe B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 6
Kimmi B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | 4
Ciera B/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 5
Kelly T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | 3
Keith B/T | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 3


Eliminated
F20 Vytas | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Pei-Gee | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/B | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X


We will start with the boots here. Terry was blindsided and didn't have a chance to have a confessional. His whole story was a blindside, and I think he went out a hero, especially with his exit. #dannystrong

Woo got a redemption edit, but he still is loyal to a fault and so naive as to how the others around him are playing, just as he was the first time he played. Huge blindside, and a huge blindside for Andrew Savage as well.

Andrew has a big spike of 4 after none last week. He is an old school player, with a bunch of seemingly new school players. The other old schoolers on his tribe seemed to be Woo and Wigle, the 2 people that voted with him. He is as naive as Woo. He first tells us of this elation on hearing, drop your buffs, and how he can't lose cause he has 5 of the 6 other people with him. Then, nothing is getting in the way of his second chance, and this will be the most unexpected and devastating blindsides. He described his own blindside. Will Andrew get another second chance in his second chance like Spencer is? Could this new arc, after he had no confessionals last week, be the beginning of his final arc and demise? Andrew is still playing the old school game and I wonder if he just can't catch up. At risk.

Spencer and Kass were tied with the most confessionals of the episode, Kass being a narrator for the events at Takeo with Terry's removal, and Spencer narrates a lot as well.

Spencer is apparently the little engine that could this season, he's chosen as the one that exemplifies second chances the most, and more like a cat with 9 lives, he's survived another TC where he was at the bottom. His first confessional talked about the ramifications of another swap, a cluster $#*^, and then the rest revolved around his old nemesis, Kass, and one about his excitement to play with Savage. Once again, one of the stars of this show lives to see another day.

Kass, who has also been edited as playing nice and changing the way she played originally, also had a huge spike. She went from 0 to 5. She told us about Terry leaving, then it became about how much she can't wait to get Spencer out, but we SEE Ciara dictate the course, and somewhere along the line Kass agreed. But, we HEARD Kass say to Abi and Ciera that she wanted Spencer out before the merge! This is huge because it tips us off to next week, when we see that they are merging. I expect, with seeing what went down this episode, that Kass will go after Spencer with a vengeance. Since Spencer is one of the big, if not the biggest star of this show, I would have to say that I think Kass will fall short in this conflict. Is this huge spike her swan song? Kass was the one that won over Spencer to swing the vote. I do believe this could be the acme of her arc which means she's at serious risk.

Along with Kass, Ciera comes out from under the radar with 2 confessionals. She was the one that instigated the blindside, really. This could be the start of her arc, but with so many other people in conflict, I think she will not be at risk this week.

Stephen went from 1 to 3 confessionals and we see at Bayon 3.0 he is gunning for someone in a big and emotional way. But, he's talking to people that WANT Joe to stay. Stephen appears to be fixated on getting the "golden boy", the JT 2.0, out of the game, but his pleas to his alliance mates are falling on deaf ears. As a know it all, he doesn't see it. If people don't want to do something there is usually a reason, and that reason is that they are most likely aligned with them TOO!!! Is Stephen a fish out of water? His spike could also be the start to his demise. With Jeremy stating he does not want Joe to go, I think that Stephen is at risk. JT, I mean Joe, has ALOT more friends than Stephen does.

Joe: Looking at Joe's confessionals, 1, he is on track with his previous episodes. I would say he is NOT going anywhere. Clearly, he's in conflict with Stephen, who sees him as the golden boy he needs to eliminate in order to WIN the game this season. But, Joe wants to gun for Kimmi. Next week with the merge, I would say there will be more options to "gun" for. But, Joe will be a threat now that challenges are individual, but with other alphas wanting to work with him, Jeremy and Andrew, I will say that Joe is safe for now.

Kelley had a consistent confessional re: her being at the bottom but she has an II, and Joe wants to protect her. She's safe!

Jeremy also had one confessional and it was about not wanting to get Joe out. He's safe.

The biggest dip in confessionals went to Abi! I think this is a good sign for her that finally there are more people who are in the limelight then she is. With the merge next week, I think Abi is in good shape. Along with Abi, Tasha goes back under the radar, which, I think is a positive sign for her. Maybe her story is tied to Abi all along?

Keith and Kimmi both go back under the radar, which I think is good for them. Kelly is still under the radar, seen but not really heard. She spoke as the parent and gave her reaction re: Terry, but no confessionals once again. She was also shown winning the RC, so playing hard, but no strategy? I am not hopeful that Kelly can keep up with these new schoolers either. But, for the time being she is not threatened either.

So, most at risk for next week:

Kass, Andrew, Stephen

*I gave Kelley Wentworth a $ quote for saying, "I want to WIN!" a la Pepe!


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10-30-15, 05:04 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Week 6, Ep 6"
Great analysis FloPo. Thanks.

Notice that Spencer, Kelley and Jeremy are the only 3 that have had a confessional every single week. Kelley and Jeremy have had $ confessionals too. They are the people that the PTB want us to remember. Tasha could have longevity too but her story so far has been around Angkor. She had a $ comment too.

I expect Abi to go UTR until her boot story. If Keith, Kelly, Kimmi or Joe gets more than 1 confessional, I would say they're toast, lol.

I think Kass, Ciera, Stephen and Andrew's arcs are all beginning with the above UTR people thrown in when their time comes.

I am really looking forward to seeing how all the alliances play out. I bet there are several alliances formed that we haven't seen yet either! "Alliance revealed rarely succeed."

P.S. You don't consider Kelly's comments about Terry a confessional? I only watched the show once and I remember what she said but I don't remember the setting. 'Splain it to me Lucy! Thanks!!

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10-30-15, 07:17 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Week 6, Ep 6"
Great thoughts, CTGirl! I am in agreement. This season it really seems pretty straight forward so far with the confessional counts and the editing, I think. Easy to pick out the stars. Abi is a star of the show as well, albeit a villain. When she starts playing hard again, look out.

Kelly was asked a question by Jiffy. Kelly, you're a parent, what would your thoughts be if someone was sick at your house, or something like that. Jiffy could have noticed her reaction to the news of Terry and then called on her thoughts, but it was not a confessional. It was in the dialect of the show. She answered him directly, in front of all of them.

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10-30-15, 09:56 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Week 6, Ep 6"
Got it, thanks. One way for the viewers to remember she's on the show but not as important as a confessional.

I think its easier too to pick out the stars because we already know these people. We know that Abi is always going to be a villain based on her actions in Philippines!

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10-31-15, 07:09 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Week 6, Ep 6"
Yes, you make an excellent point. We know these DAWS, and most of them are playing very similar games.

One other thing also to note is that with the exit of Terry and Woo, it's easy to see that EVERY single boot from the beginning on did NOT have a confessional in the intro with the exception of Jeff. And, for the time that Varner was there, he was a star. Continuing on, there are only 2 other players that didn't get a confessional in the intro: Stephen and Keith. Will they be our next 2 boots?

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10-31-15, 06:38 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Week 6, Ep 6"
Great work, FP. Thank you so much for doing this. I think the merge episode will answer a lot of our questions.

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11-04-15, 08:45 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Week 6, Ep 6"
Awesome work Flowerpower!

Looks great and fantastic analysis/info!

What do you think about lining up the Tribes for each player. I also added the third tribe.

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total

Spencer T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 20
Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | 15
Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 15
Tasha B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 11
Kelley T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 11
Jeremy B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 11
Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 10
Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 9
Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 6
Kimmi B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | 4
Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 5
Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | 3
Keith B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 3

Eliminated
F20 Vytas T | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/T | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X


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11-08-15, 11:53 AM (EST)
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30. "Week 7"
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-15 AT 11:50 AM (EST)

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | total
Spencer T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 24
Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 21
Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | 15
Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
Kelley T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 14
Tasha B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | 13
Jeremy B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 12
Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10
Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10
Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 8
Kimmi B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 4
Keith B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4
Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | 3

Eliminated
F20 Vytas T | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/T | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X

Lots of Survivors changing places in the hierarchy this week with the merge. One thing is for certain. Many possible final arcs have begun, let's take a look.
1. Savage and Kelley: Both were narrators for different perspectives in the game. If their confessionals settle down next week, this may not be their final swan song? But Savage has a peak with confessionals and he could be at risk?
2. Joe: huge spike from consistently 1 per episode to 4. Arc begun, could be the beginning of the end? We see that he is one of the ones that will be a target next week as the focus of Stephen's big move. At risk.
3. Ciera: She had 2 last week, 3 this week. Is this leading up to a peak then crash? At risk.

Now, those that had a big dip in confessionals, which could set them up for a surprise boot:
1. Stephen: Last week Stephen had a spike of 3, the most he's ever had, and he had a plan to hatch regarding a big move against the alpha, Joe MacGuyver. Seemingly it got put on the back burner with the merge episode, and Stephen's one confessional told us about new school merge dynamics, need 7 for the majority. With the tease for next week in the promo, looks like his story from last week, the big move, is coming up again and could be front and center. We can see from the promos that Stephen is getting confessionals next week, a spike perhaps? Will the big move plan bite him? He's at risk.

Those with consistent numbers: Spencer, Abi, Tasha, Jeremy, Kimmi, Keith, and Kelly. I agree with what CTGirl said last week. If any of the current under the radar players have some kind of a spike suddenly, then they are most likely beginning their final swan song.

For me this week considering confessionals only ~ At high risk: Joe, Ciera, Stephen. At risk: Savage.

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11-08-15, 12:50 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Week 7"
Thank you!

I was beginning to worry ...

G

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32. "RE: Week 7"
LAST EDITED ON 11-08-15 AT 05:02 PM (EST)


1. Stephen: Last week Stephen had a spike of 3, the most he's ever had, and he had a plan to hatch regarding a big move against the alpha, Joe MacGuyver. Seemingly it got put on the back burner with the merge episode, and Stephen's one confessional told us about new school merge dynamics, need 7 for the majority. With the tease for next week in the promo, looks like his story from last week, the big move, is coming up again and could be front and center. We can see from the promos that Stephen is getting confessionals next week, a spike perhaps? Will the big move plan bite him?

I think that it is possible that the increased attention to Savage is due, in part, to the fact that he becomes Stephen's target.

And/Or ...

I wonder if it may be that Stephen postpones his quest (or abandons it entirely) only to have the Ta Keo (III) coalition convince the mainline alliance that his plot is alive and well and aimed at one of their own. And, as a result, a (relatively) innocent Stephen is sent packing: blindsided by both divisions of his Tribe.

Too, I wonder, if the question of whether or not Stephen may have an Idol comes up, what Jeremy will do/say.

G

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11-12-15, 10:28 AM (EST)
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33. "Retrospect Ep 7"
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-15 AT 10:29 AM (EST)

Well, interesting to review the confessionals in retrospect. I noted that Andrew and Kelley both had spikes. They both told the story of the merge and what it meant to them, from their different perspectives, which was narrational regarding the events at the tribe as well. As michel noted, however, Kelley's first confessional was a lot more than narrational...it was more about what it meant for her ....here are her confessionals:

1. Iím so excited. I am freaking out. I didnít make the merge the last time which was my goal number one so at least making the merge this time is like: OK, Iíve hit one step of where I want to be, but I want to push through and I want to get to the end. Thereís one winner. One person gets the million dollars at the end of Survivor and I came here to play!

2. Confessional #2 tells us about the game from her perspective and who she's with....a vantage point from one side....Right now, I am working with Kass, Ciera, Keith and hopefully we have Joe because, when I was back at the old Takeo camp, we had made a Final Five deal. Kass thinks we have Abi but then I have Spencer and Joe who are a little bit of a wild card. I do want to talk to them to see exactly where they are because I need to be sure if they are on board. Itís pretty clear right now that Spencer and Joe are going to be the power players who are in control of this game. This is it: Itís so important.

3. Confessional #3 is also a perspective from the "other side"....I havenít been with Spencer for a very long time so I wanted to check in with him to make sure that he would potentially want to work with me.

Then, here are Andrew's confessionals. A perspective from his point of view, and then from his side of things post merge. His first confessional paints an ugly side of Andrew. He's judgmental and arrogant, and so narcissistic! Painting Andrew like this, or showing this side of him, does make me root for the underdog girls. The uglier he is, the better they look...

1. It was a very tough night for me. I go to Tribal; I thought it was a lock. They didnít include me and they are incredible liars. I thought I could read people pretty well...These folks are professionals. I feel the most betrayed by Kass. I thought she was really strong with the Bayons but after last night, she became a Takeo. Iím not going to go down without a fight. (Bleep) them. Piece of (bleep). Thereís a merge coming. If I have to bite my tongue, act like a wimpy little non-leader, under the radar kind of guy which is the antithesis of me, Iíll do it. I need to get to that merge.

2. Let this twist be something beautiful: A beautiful merge. My dream is to make the merge. I suffered. I am praying to the Survivor gods stronger than you can imagine that today is something good like a merge and I am back with my Bayon brothers. Please, please, please. This confessional exposes that Andrew is not quite capable of really playing with any other alternative than his original commitment with the Bayon boys. In retrospect, we can see it's a lot of foreshadowing, as Abi told him on the way out last night, at least you made the merge!

3. Iím the happiest man alive right now. Iím back at my home, my original home: Bayon.

4. Wiglesworth has told me that she has my back. She wasnít in the original Bayon but Wiglesworth is hugely loyal from what I can tell. We need seven. So, from a numbers stand point, I have to do everything I can to go after Joe, just to reconfirm that he would like to be part of the Bayon.

5.Tasha and Kass were going at it when suddenly Ciera was saying something about me. Dude, you just woke up a raging bull. You got a really nasty, rabid two-headed dragon right now that is wreaking havoc in our beautiful little tribe and weíre going to take one of the heads and just lop it off.

6. First immunity challenge; I wanted to win. I wanted to make a statement. You have all these young studs; I just wanted to show that I can hang with them. But Ciera and Kass didnít win immunity. The ring leader was Kass with Ciera right behind her. They are coming up with lies that are almost believable and thatís what so dangerous about them but, from my perspective, I would rather have Ciera go. I will never forget what Ciera did and, in my mind, sheís done. For this vote, Iíd rather have Ciera go. She is dangerous. For me, she is public enemy number one and she has to go.

His latter confessionals tell us the perspective from the opposite side of Kelley.

In retrospect we can see that the spike that Andrew and Kelley had in ep 7 were related to the drama that unfolded between them in ep 8. They have both been very present through the entire show. But, Andrew was being painted as negative, while Kelley was determined, she wants to win! So, it's easy to see now that Kelley would trump Savage. Clearly, Savage's confessionals did NOT settle down, and therefore the spike last week was the big indicator of his demise.

It's fun to use the confessional patterns as just one other tool to try and predict the outcomes!


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11-12-15, 01:04 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Retrospect Ep 7"
It is a great tool! Hindsight is 20-20! I remember thinking that Andrew could be in trouble when I saw his spike in confessionals. That coupled with Stephen only having one confessional made me think (at the time) that Stephen was safe.

I can't wait to see the numbers for this week! Thanks for doing this FloPo!!

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11-13-15, 12:34 PM (EST)
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35. "Week 8"
episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |total
Spencer T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25
Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
Kelley T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 17
Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 15
Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15
Jeremy B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14
Tasha B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 13
Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12
Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11
Kimmi B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 5
Keith B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 5
Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 3

Eliminated
F20 Vytas T | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/T | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X

This week there are some interesting developments. First of all, it's easy to see now, in retrospect that Andrew's peak last week was the pinnacle of his arc. Toast! This week, we have to be aware that Stephen has a very similar spike, with a jump from 1 confessional last week to 5 this week. Clearly he is at high risk!

AS for the others: Spencer: He drops down to 1 confessional and seems to be on the right side of the numbers, he doesn't appear to be one of the "big threats" noted by Ciera or Stephen. Safe.
Kelley: Her arc is steady at the same number of confessionals as she had last week ~ 3. She was at the core of the drama this week. She's going to be one of the witches. She could be working on her final arc and now that she no longer has her HII she could be in trouble? At risk.
Abi-Maria: steady under the radar. She is seen in the preview promo a few times and if she gets confessionals next week, she could have her final spike in her boot episode. She's a witch. At risk.
Jeremy: goes from 1 to 2 this week. Steady, safe. Starting to have meatier confessionals as to how and what he wants. Steered the vote this time. Safe.
Tasha: under the radar, with the numbers. Safe.
Joe: Had 4 last week, settles to 2 this week. While his confessional pattern seems to be settling down, he still is a target if he doesn't win IC. But, his arc could have started last week, we know he does get a confessional next week(see it in the promos). At slight risk.
Ciera: Like Kelley, she's in the midst of the drama, has the same confessional count as last week, this could be her final arc? At risk.
Kimmi: Safe
Keith: Safe
Kelly: Safe

Confessionals tell us:
At high risk: Stephen
At risk: the witches ~ Kelley, Ciera, Abi-Maria
At slight risk: Joe

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11-17-15, 01:05 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Week 8"
I don't think Abi is going anywhere. I don't see her as a threat - possibly a goat.

High risk: Stephen
At risk: Ciera, Kelley, or Joe

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11-20-15, 04:34 PM (EST)
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37. "Week 9, The Witches Coven"
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-15 AT 09:06 AM (EST)


episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |total
Spencer T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 26
Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 21
Kelley T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 20
Jeremy B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19
Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 16
Tasha B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 14
Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14
Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13
Kimmi B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 6
Keith B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 5
Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X

Eliminated
F20 Vytas T | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/T | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X

Okay, I want to start off saying that anyone with no confessionals, even for one week, is at slight risk to go home in the next episode, as a hidden boot, having their last spike, last arc in their boot episode. This is exactly what happened with Kelly. While I placed Abi Maria at risk for this week, because she had had no confessionals and then all of a sudden, I saw her appear in the promos, a lot. That was a tip, that this episode could have been her spike/arc that led to her demise. I did not place Kelly at risk last week because she didn't appear to be "all over" the promos. Let's face it, every season production does like to have 1 or 2 completely hidden boots. Historically, they like to put one toward the beginning of the season. This season, it's Kelly. Score one for EPMB! Kelly had NO confessionals until her final arc, the swan song, that was her boot episode.

But, as CTGirl noted, those that start arcs toward the end of the show need to be watched closely and we have a lot going on now. Many people are most likely in the midst of their final arcs.

There were 2 stars of this episode. First of all, Stephen, and he has had the acme of his arc with getting the advantage and selling the voting block theory in contrast to prior ways to play the game of Survivor that entailed alliances. Jiffy is buying it and selling it. Stephen showed us a lot of his personal thinking and strategy...how do I get the witches to make the potion that's right for me?, I think that there are voting blocks that make sense for the moment then the next day that could be completely out the window, my 2nd chance is about having a game of my own that I can point to, and say these are the moves that I made, and so I want to build something with the 3 witches because they are on the bottom and they are desperate to make a move.... Then he talks about the advantage he won and what it means and he's not using tonight, he can get by on his wits and hustle. He makes this new strategy clear....for Spencer and Jeremy and for us...I donít want to build an alliance with the 3 people on the bottom and get picked off with them. Letís build this voting block. We are talking about voting blocks here and every Tribal Council there is going to be a new VB. I have to add here that clearly the foreshadowing is on the wall. This new evolution of Survivor strategy is going to be the demise of Fishbach. A voting block will surely boot his knowingest a$$!

So, it's clear to me that Stephen is at the pinnacle of his story in this season. His arc can only go down from here, and this strategy will be his demise, OR, he will go to the end with it. 2 choices here, demise or end game. At high risk

The second star of the show was Jeremy, and he had 5 confessionals which was a peak for him. But, Jeremy's confessionals were all about finding the idol because his shields are starting to get picked off, (Savage), and he is aware they they will come for him. His presumption was validated as Ciera called him out during the RC, if you are with Jeremy at the end, he will win. He's been labeled by others as a threat.
His first 4 confessionals were all about the need to find, then the hunt to find, then finding, and celebrating the idol. He did get the last confessional before TC, as the outcome of the TC depended on him, and he expressed doubt and concern. Jeremy is a star of the show now with 2 HI's in his pocket. He's safe.

Spencer is still another star of the show but he's settled down quite nicely after all of the dangerous spots he's maneuvered through. His hard efforts have paid off as he now appears to be in a very tight alliance of himself, Jeremy, and Stephen. How nice for Jeremy to be sitting between Spencer, the young lad, and Stephen, the knowingest know-it-all! Spencer is going with the flow, now getting to ride in the back seat for a change and letting Stephen take the drivers seat, as Stephen told us he wanted to do a few episodes ago. Spencer is safe.

Kelley: She could have been in serious danger and she was the secondary target tonight. Yet, as one of the most sought after targets, she's managed to escape the boot once again. I do think this is her end arc. Her last confessional was feeling more confident because she had new people that are willing to work with her...I think she is at risk.

Abi-Maria: With one confessional in the episode she is starting her end arc. But, for now, there are bigger fish to fry, namely Wentworth and Ciera. Her name was not mentioned as a boot target. For now, safe.

Tasha: Had 1 confessional that was narrative. She's not seen to be with the "in" crowd or the voting block for this episode. Not a good sign, I don't think. For now, this is her prior pattern. I think for now she is safe, but we will watch her in the next weeks.

Joe has settled down from the peak a few episodes ago. I think that he's safe for now, but clearly, he's in his final story arc. As his confessionals are the same as last week, and they are in reference to finding the HI, and then about the benefits of getting the reward. I think he is SAFE this week. Abi also told us that Joe is just going to win that IN forever....as soon as he doesn't, wham bam. Let's hope he has a spike or a dip in the prior episode to give us a hint.

Ciera has also started her final arc, I think. She had a two week peak and now she's got a small dip, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see her really peak in her boot episode, and it could be next week, or it could be two weeks, or it could be in 3 or 4 weeks. She's at risk.

As for Kimmi and Keith, the remaining 2 daws. It's easy to see that they are not a big part of the second chance story. Funny, ever since they got on the same tribe, and Kimmi was trying to do something with the water and fire, and Keith scolded her, they have been associated together. Bringing and reading treemail, sharing rewards, etc, etc. Look to see in vidcaps how ofter they are right next to each other. It's comical!

Kimmi has one confessional for the past two weeks. This could be her baseline until her boot episode. I don't see her in danger this week however, but I have to say I didn't see Kelly in danger last week either! SAFE

Keith: Falls under the radar but he has been associated with Joe, and it seems that everyone that hangs with Joe gets the boot when Joe wins immunity. However, I see bigger fish to fry and bigger fish making waves than Keith so I think Keith is safe

This weeks prediction looks a lot like last weeks...

High Risk: Stephen
At Risk: Ciera, Kelley


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11-24-15, 04:55 PM (EST)
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38. "Nice observations FP"
I enjoy your posts.

Something interesting (not that it means anything just interesting) is there are 3 people who have had at least 1 confessional in every episode.

Spencer, Jeremy and Kelley.

So if one of these 3 do not make the final 3 (making the assumption that there is a final 3) which one would it be?

Also, Stephen had a spike last week and stayed up this week. Does he go? I think that makes him at risk.

Jeremy is also up this week. It will be interesting to see if he stays up and if that puts him at risk.

Dusty

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11-28-15, 05:06 PM (EST)
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39. "Week 10"
First of all, what GREAT back to back episodes! I was riveted! I am going to separate the two episodes, so first off we have confessionals for episode 10...

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10|total
Spencer T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 31
Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 26
Jeremy B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 22
Kelley T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21
Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X
Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 17
Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17
Tasha B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 2 | 16
Kimmi B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8
Keith B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2$| 7


Eliminated
F20 Vytas T | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/T | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
F10 Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X

A few things to note. 3 stars of the show, Ciera, our boot, Stephen, the intended target, and Spencer who was seen working hard to get Stephen out, but failed because Jeremy played his idol. In retrospect we can see that Ciera was in her final arc for the past 5 episodes. As one of the witches that had prayed for miracles and received them, her time had run out. In contrast, Stephen was blindsided, but spared. Still easy to see that his arc is indeed at the top and must come down soon, we saw it come to an end in episode 11, where he was blindsided again, even with his advantage.

With Spencer having a huge spike, we may presume this is the start of his final arc. He's playing the game hard, and at first he had to play to assimilate, and we saw him let others drive the bus, but now, he's getting in the front seat and starting to grab the steering wheel, but do the others want to go where he wants to lead? That's going to be interesting to see! If we didn't know the outcome to episode 11, I may had said that he was at risk, with such a significant spike.

Jeremy came back down from his spike last week but still very present with 3 confessionals, and Kelley settles down to 3...safe. Abi stays the same, Abi could be in her final arc, and she could have a big spike in her boot episode.

Joe has an increase in confessionals, starting his final arc?
Kimmi and Keith, both with 2 confessionals, both okay for now, Keith had a very meaty million dollar quote....They are talking about food and cold, but I am here to win a million dollars cut and dry, I ainít starving to death, yeah, Iíll make it out, this is day 25, 35, hell, we are two weeks out, hell Iíll make it 50 days for a million dollars! Shoot, when do you get a second chance for something like this?....hahahhaha! I think with the way Keith picked it up and went on a little immunity run at the last season he played, this could be the editors giving us cause to NOT rule Keith out just yet, and perhaps intimating that Keith could do the same!

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11-28-15, 05:45 PM (EST)
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40. "Episode 11"
LAST EDITED ON 12-01-15 AT 02:47 PM (EST)

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10| 11|total
Spencer T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 35
Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 32X
Kelley T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 26
Jeremy B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 23
Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20
Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20
Tasha B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 2 | . | 16
Kimmi B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 8
Keith B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2$| . | 7


Eliminated
F20 Vytas T | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/T | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
F10 Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X
F 9 Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 32X

There were 3 stars of the show. Stephen, with his being blindsided but then saved by Jeremy, then with winning the RC, and deciding to share information about his advantages to 3 people, his trusted allies, and then wanting Joe out. We see that he was feeling too comfortable with his advantage, and he told the person that he thought he could trust, that was out to get him, Spencer. This inevitably led to his demise, and Joe outlasts Stephen. But, with all conflicts that are paramount in the seasons story, we have to wonder once the conflict is resolved, will the other person be soon to follow?

The next star of the show was Spencer. He told us that he felt he had been lied to and that maybe he should jump ship with others that wanted to jump ship! He also told us that the knowingest know it all made a questionable decision with who he chose for reward, that they, Tasha, Jeremy, Stephen, were tighter with each other than they were with him, and maybe he needed to do something about it. Then we see him do just that. He spear heads to quest to take Stephen out, and has it all arranged, and then Stephen tells him about the advantage, leaving Spencer enough time to manage the numbers. Well done, Spencer. You ARE a player! Spencer is getting what he wants and is still a star in this show. He jumped from working with Jeremy/Stephen to working with Kelley. He's SAFE!

The final star of the show with 5 confessionals was Kelley. The first 3 confessionals were ALL about her finding the HI clue, then reading the clue, then going about and getting the HI. The next 2 confessionals were about the core 4, Kimmi, Stephen, Tasha, and Jeremy think that Joe is going home, but I have 5, so it's not going to happen....and we see she is firm, but if there is anything "fishy" at TC, she will play her idol! With an idol in her pocket, despite the big spike, Kelley is SAFE for next week.

The "Others" :

Jeremy: Falls from 3 to 1 confessional, I think that he's safe, stays away from the drama and we know he still has another HI. He's SAFE for the week.

Joe: Joe is stable with 3 confessionals. But, we note that Joe's counts have gone from 1's, to 4, to 2's, to 3's....he's a steady presence, but his arc is underway in a slower, more drawn out way. Joe triumphed over Stephen tonight, and he told us that it was a test, that he had to rely on his social game and let's see if it's better than the last time. So with that, Joe outlasting, and not being voted off when he doesn't win immunity is a nod from the editors, yes, you did have more social game than the last time! But, the thing is, it was really Spencer and Kelley that drove the strategy tp get out Fish. With his arc going slow and steady up, I would say that Joe is ripe for a crash and burn, the conflict with Stephen is over. At Risk!

Abi: She had an uptick from 1 to 3 confessionals, which is indeed suspect. And her confessionals were throwing shade on Stephen and on Joe, and even Spencer. She went with the plan, but they are talking about her...Kelley, Spencer, Stephen, they all were. That's a bad sign. I would say with the sudden spike, she's at risk.

Tasha, Keith, Kimmi: All back under the radar, insignificant for now, I say they are all safe!

At risk: Joe, Abi
At slight risk: With 0 confessionals this week, there is always a possibility of a "hidden boot" with a spike in their boot episode, so there fore at slight risk are Tasha, Kimmi, Keith.

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Flowerpower1 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-15, 07:16 PM (EST)
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41. "Episode 12"
episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12|total
Spencer T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5$| 40
Kelley T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 29
Jeremy B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 27
Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 21
Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23X
Tasha B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 2 | . | 3 | 19
Kimmi B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 2 | 10
Keith B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2$| . | 1 | 8


Eliminated
F20 Vytas T | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/T | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
F10 Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X
F 9 Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 32X
F 8 Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23X

Things to note: Joe ended with a slow and steady arc, an ever present character.
There was one star of this show and it was Spencer. He told us that even though he had blindsided Jeremy by taking out Stephen, and even though Jeremy was not someone he wanted to go to the end with, he still did not want to become a gamebot and treat people like pawns, so he needed to keep a relationship with Jeremy. Then his confessionals were personal, about a struggle in his life to tell people he loved them, then we see him do it, then we hear later how it was the most heartache he'd ever felt, but, there is no option for me at this point but for me to get my head back in the game and for me to win. YES, folks, that IS a winning or a million dollar quote. Better late than never!

Spencer's next two confessionals were about needing to get Joe when he could, and then needing to squash the girls before they get started.

I did feel early on that Spencer was the journey character and that his journey was about a coming of age and maturation one, growing socially....recognizing that relationships get you farther in the game of life than strategy. With him telling his girlfriend that he loves her this ep, his story is coming to fruition. BUT!!! With that that $ quote, his conviction to now win, it gives me pause. He's still a candidate for winning, perhaps! Spencer had a spike in his confessionals, and he's come full circle with the "I love you's", I think Spencer is at SLIGHT RISK.

Jeremy had 4 confessionals. He tells us how he felt when Stephen left, he's having a son that he doesn't want to tell anyone about, he was planning to vote out Joe but then Tasha tells them about a girls alliance, and If those girls take over this game he and Spencer are done, games over, so having Tasha on his side is crucial. Pretty straight forward narration from his perspective. A good showing with 4, and the start of an arc.

Spencer told us that he doesn't want to go to the end with Jeremy, BUT, with the arrival of the girls alliance, it may bond Spencer closer to Jeremy. While another one of Jeremy's shields is gone, he still has an HII in his pocket, Jeremy is SAFE for this week.

Kelley had three confessionals. The first one telling us about the all girls alliance, second one telling about how excited everyone was to be there(on reward), and the third one was about how hard Joe was playing and he had to go so the girls could win this game. She's buying into the all girls alliance, which was steered by Kimmi. She is telling us her plan. A strong presence especially since she not only won the reward, but the IC as well. Just gives me pause that it wasn't her plan originally. But, with an HII in her pocket, I do believe Kelley is SAFE for this week.

Clearly, the three stars of the show, Spencer, Jeremy, and Kelley have all now started their final arcs, so the only question is, who will crash and burn BEFORE the final, and who's will be the decided winners arc?

Tasha gets an uptick, going from 0 to 3, because she is the one riding both alliances, both options. Because she has options she is SAFE for the next week.

Kimmi has an uptick as well, 0 to 2. And, it's her idea, she's pitching the all girls alliance. We see her get Kelley on board then go to all the others, she's getting the credit for the plan. I think because it is her plan, and we saw this plan FAIL when Monica proposed it, AND, because Kimmi goes from 0 to 2, and that is the most confessionals she's ever had in one episode, I think that Kimmi is at SLIGHT RISK.

Keith also goes from 0 to 1, he got to see Big D. Comic relief, Big D was the ultimate prize. Keith had one insignificant confessional, he could be ripe for a hidden boot, especially since he took down Joey Amazing in the IC this week. At RISK.

Abi, otoh, goes down with her confessional count from 3 to 1. Her confessional was gloating about Joe losing to a 52 year old man, and how that was awesome. Abi is becoming the witch in the witches coven. She exemplifies what Joe pointed out to Jeremy this week, that everyone wants to go to the end with her. I do NOT see her as a winner contender. Abi was the secondary target this week, and people are starting to get her on their radar. She could be a "surprise" boot but dropping down in confessionals this week, for next week. Going down in confessionals while getting noticed puts Abi as ripe. She's AT RISK

At SLIGHT RISK: Spencer, Kimmi
At RISK: Keith, Abi

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SquidProQuo 2316 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"

12-06-15, 06:14 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Episode 12"
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-15 AT 06:14 PM (EST)

FloPo, thanks so much for doing this every week -- very helpful! I'm blown away by how few confessionals Keith and Kimmi have hadÖ..and how the 3 editing stars are the only ones with a confessional every episode.

Given Keith's "spike" (if you can call it that, ha) and the fact that he's the only left in the F7 NOT to have a confessional in the season opener 9-min. introductory segment, I'm leaning toward him going next. Plus Abi's presumed "Villians have more fun" title seems to imply that she might get her way this week.

I felt the same way as you did about Spencer's journey edit so far, but then this week his edit was just fabulous, and that one confessional was a big reason. For the record, though, he did have a "winning" quote in Ep1. (didn't mention $1mil, so maybe that's why you or Dabo didn't count it).

Michel mentioned in another thread that winning quotes don't mean much anymore because several people have them, but I still think it's telling that only Jeremy, Spencer and Tasha had a "winning" quote in that opening segment vs. Kelley talked about wanting to play "a better game."

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Flowerpower1 1273 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-15, 10:45 PM (EST)
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43. "Episode 13"
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-15 AT 10:48 PM (EST)

Since it's the last time the confessionals can be used, I thought I would churn them out. After last week, I really believed that Abi would be the next one to go. I let myself be persuaded however by Keith and his challenge prowess...hehhehhehehehe, SPIT! Speaking of Keith, did you notice they zeroed in on him in the promo with a big spit exclamation point?!

Here is the last confessional tracker before the finale:

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12| 13 |total
Spencer T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5$| 4 | 44
Kelley T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 33
Jeremy B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 27
Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25X
Tasha B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 2 | . | 3 | 6 | 25
Keith B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2$| . | 1 | 3 | 11
Kimmi B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 10

Eliminated
F20 Vytas T | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin T | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff T/A | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/T | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
F10 Ciera B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X
F 9 Stephen B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 32X
F 8 Joe B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23X
F 7Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25X


Abi was the classic hidden boot, with a drop in her confessionals last week, then a spike in her boot episode. She did get a very early confessional in her boot episode, which apparently is a big tip to the episode boot. I think the title of the episode was a hint as well, perhaps?

Tasha got a big spike as well going from 3 to 6. Part of that was the drama at the IC with her near drowning, but Tasha expressed that Jeremy needs to let her take her turn to make a big move, but we saw her as fickle. She was dead set on taking out Keith, the big challenge threat with Kimmi, Abi, and Jeremy, but then in the hammock she did a 180, and decided Abi was the bigger threat, because she could flip at any time. We saw her rally her troops, Jeremy and Spencer, but not Kimmi. It was almost comical that at first she wanted Keith, then she says in confessional that the reason that Abi has to go is that she is very volatile. *snort* Tasha was volatile in the episode. The Fox train is leaving the station.

Spencer got the quality confessional with depth at the reward...not only was he blown away by the Cambodian temples and experience, but he reflected on his personal journey, in his second chance game which was to show through this game how much he's changed and to use that change to win this game. Another declaration to win this game. It's just what he needs to get through the last 6 days. Then he talks strategy with Kelley and Keith, then later with Jeremy and Tasha. Spencer was truly the swing vote, and he chose to go with the stronger Jeremy and Tasha to the end, rather than with his "dream goats" Abi and Keith. He's has made his bed. Is this the doubt that will be cast on him as winner?

Keith had his biggest spike yet, up to 3 confessionals. HIs first was about how he wished he'd known about the Joe vote, and that he needed to go talk to "some folks", then a confessional about the reward, then about the near drowning and then reeling Abi in to take out, Tasha, Jeremy, and Kimmi....easy.

Kelley had an uptick by 1, she had 4 confessionals. Kelley talks about her game play, her uncertainty, her wanting to trust in some people, while recognizing she hasn't had a strong alliance the entire game. Then, she admits wanting to get to the end game, she's almost there...then she admits that she JUST wants to get to the F3, that's a goal. Will she get there? I can't help but feel that when a player says they "just" want to do something, then it's a self fulfilling prophecy.

Jeremy had a dip in confessionals. His first confessional was about buyers remorse, should have kept Joe, but let me tell everybody on the jury why I deserve that million dollars, thatís all I want! Another self-fulfilling prophecy? Will he get to tell them all and fall short as well? The other confessionals were about Scorpios, and then entertaining the possibility of Spencer jumping ship.

Kimmi: Nada.

Predictions: Judging by the confessionals, regarding the next boot at F6, I think that Tasha, Keith, and Kimmi are all at risk. Tasha and Keith had confessional spikes while Kimmi dipped down (hidden boot pattern).

If I had to pick a winner for this season on the confessionals alone, I would easily choose Spencer, at this point. The story of the second chance season has really been played out through his second Survivor adventure. He epitomizes that story and I do think he's doing enough to win it. We will see!

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