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"State of the Spoiling Episode 13, My word is my bond"
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Flowerpower1 777 desperate attention whore postings
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05-12-15, 08:25 PM (EST)
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"State of the Spoiling Episode 13, My word is my bond"
LAST EDITED ON 05-13-15 AT 08:23 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 05-12-15 AT 08:44PM (EST)

Welcome to the SOTS, the State of the Spoiling, where we try to compile a one stop shop with all the facts delivered through the week, so we can make the most accurate prediction as to the unfolding events of the current episode. In the immortal words of Colleen Haskel, Season One, "Be nice and play fair"!

This week our title for episode 13 is:

My Word is My Bond

This could be Mike, but it could also be Rodney as he tries to outwit some of his five...We still have a few surprises left this season....will Mike lose the IC?, will Dan play his vote doubler?, will Carolyn play her HII?, and finally will Rodney ever go on reward? So, to start the episode, let's examine the teases....

MISDIRECTION CLUES

First of all, in the Title, tweets, and teases thread, located here, CTGirl has posted a lot of Jiffy quotes. To sum it up, Jiffy says that Mike has nothing to lose and so he goes hog wild pitting them all against each other, while the alliance of 5 plays defensively, not offensively.

Georgianna ponders if ANOTHER HII will be found by Mike?

The official teases by CBS are:

1. With only six castaways left in the game, immunity is more important than ever. uh.....DUH! Especially for Mike.


2. castaways are puzzled at a tough reward challenge.

The RC has a puzzle in it.

3. A strong alliance begins to crumble. But, in the preview promo, Dan tells us that the alliance always knew that eventually they would turn on each other. Jiffy confirms it: the majority alliance crumbles. The way I see it....in order for the alliance of 5 to crumble, then Mike needs to win immunity.


4. Mike see's an opportunity. Mike creates havoc pitting them all against each other. Dan doesn't buy Mike's bill of sale at all, now that we know he is one of Rodney's chosen ones. But, Sierra and Carolyn are a different story?

Vidcaps

The preview promo spells it out...there are shots of Dan/Rodney/Will, then we hear Dan note that they always knew the alliance would turn on each other, followed by a picture of Sierra and Carolyn. IT's not hard to see where they will probably side.

Then we see Mike telling Dan his alliance is gunning for him, but he's not falling for it, he knows he's in the numbers with Rodney and Will. Then, we see Mike telling Carolyn and Sierra that he is positive, one millionth percent, that Dan is voting for one of them with the boys.

Let's try to put the vidcaps in some kind of order for a time line:

Mike at the start of the episode, in the AM, telling it like it is:

I've got to win immunity to stay in the game!

Dan confirms it....The alliance wants Mike gone!

Reward Challenge

Here is the video of the reward challenge:

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/aDMbjHPNY3MPzQXw7yirwbBdOshkySAM/survivor-behind-the-scenes-challenge-preview/


Down netting, up a wooden frame, down the wash boards, to the draw bridge, to untie, then chop rope to get dozens of wooden pieces dropped, 23 of which have a letter, then unscramble the 23 letters to solve a word puzzle.

With Carolyn and Mike on the same team, I am solidly with them winning the RC. Here they are scrambling though....look pretty even with the 2 big guys on different teams...

Mike chopping the rope to get the pieces released...

The most important pic for me is this one, when they are lined up at the start. Note Carolyn's hair is in a pony tail, not one braid, and Sierra's hair is in two braids.

Immunity Challenge

Now, the IC. This involves using I think some kind of grappling hook to hook and reel in 3 sets of bags. Once you have your bags, most likely containing a ball in each bag, you race to the other side where there is a balancing maze. You must take a ball and get it without falling in to a pit, to the exit point in the middle of the board. I don't know where the three bags of balls come in, perhaps the first one to get all 3 through the maze will win?

Please note that Mike has the buff on his head, Carolyn now has the back braid, wearing her bathing suit, and Sierra is now wearing her hair pulled up high on her head in a high pony.

Clearly, it comes down to Sierra with the blue table, and Mike with the green board...

JP: We are neck and neck right now!





So, the question is, how many balls do they have to sink?

So, where do the other pictures fit in on the time line?

This picture in the hammock with Rodney is close to the RC, most likely the morning of the RC, Sierra is under a blanket....***CORRECTION: On further review this picture is AFTER the RC, you can still see the blue fabric on Sierra's left wrist that she wore as part of the blue team in the RC. This is two of the losers who are back at camp while the winners, Carolyn/Mike/Will are off on reward.

Next, I think this picture is the morning of the IC, note Rodney is wearing his long sleeved shirt, hair is similar to how the girls wear it in the IC...

These shots are most likely after the IC....Mike with buff on head....then below, Carolyn with braid and Sierra with high ponytail...




Finally, we have these pictures from the TC:

Shirin and Tyler. Clearly, they like what has happened! Is Shirin happy to see Mike wearing the IN, or perhaps after the vote, when someone from the 5 goes home? Both Tyler and Shirin are happy!

Then we have this picture of Jiffy, as he says: It is anybody's game to win.

RESULTS

RC Winners: Rodney strikes out AGAIN! Winners are Mike, Carolyn, and Will

IC Winner: Mike

Boot:

Rodney

In order for it to be "anybody's game", SOMEBODY has to go. I think the 2 that best qualify as somebody are Mike and Rodney. Mike because he's been the "biggest threat" to win the game since Joe left, and Rodney because he's been in charge of "the alliance".

~My 2 cents: Don't know if Dan will play the doubler or not, but I think he will, and I think that Carolyn will also play her HII, which nullifies all of Dan/Rodney/Will's votes. Whoever Mike/Carolyn/Sierra vote for will lose. I think it's Rodney, but it could be Dan too.

*Just read this quote by Michel: Jeff usually says it's anybody's game after a blindside.

If that is the case, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dan go either. He's my second choice for boot....


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 1... michel2 05-12-15 1
 RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 1... tribephyl 05-13-15 2
 RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 1... Scarlett O Hara 05-13-15 3
 Bravo! suzzee 05-13-15 4
 RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 1... CTgirl 05-13-15 5
   Social media.... Flowerpower1 05-13-15 7
 RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 1... kingfish 05-13-15 6

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michel2 862 desperate attention whore postings
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05-12-15, 10:05 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 13, My word is my bond"
That was excellent detective work with the women's hair style, FP. If Sierra and Carolyn are even talking to Mike AFTER the IC then it almost has to mean he has won it. If he hadn't, the five would all be happy just sitting together...Unless Carolyn overhears Rodney, Will and Dan. That's what I'd want to see, that's what could turn the whole game around.

Rodney or Dan? Unless Carolyn tells Mike and Sierra the nature of the advantage, they will assume he has an immunity idol, maybe even Tony's super idol so they won't dare vote against him. I'd go for Rodney also.

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tribephyl 11508 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-15, 02:12 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 13, My word is my bond"
Standing "O"!
Expert sleuthing and a truly wonderful read.
IF Mike wins immunity...Carolyn is target #1. The boys (D/R/W) will foment their alliance of 3 by ridding the game of Mama C. (Dirty reward keeper she is.)
Mike can focus the target on boys versus girls, Dan will be forced to use his advantage "to insure" he has numbers and Mama C would be stupid to NOT play her idol. I think JP's comment about it being anyone's game comes from the advantage and the hidden idol being used resulting in a blindside. Everyone, from this point forward, is on "even" ground.

RC Winner: Carolyn ~ Mike ~ Will
IC Winner: Mike
Bootee: Rodney
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Scarlett O Hara 3339 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-15, 08:12 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 13, My word is my bond"
Well done, my sweet! Frankly, it's about time one of Rodney or Dan goes home. I think along with Will, the three qualify for the most disliked, disgusting Survivor contestants ever. I would literally STOP watching the show if those three made it to the end together.

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suzzee 5781 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-15, 12:06 PM (EST)
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4. "Bravo!"
Wonderful SOTS FP, thank you for all the effort. I would love to see Rodney go out with a bada boom. As for Dan's advantage I keep hearing Jiffy say "it works out beautifully", I think he uses it and saves himself. Should be an interesting night.


Ladies and Gentlemen, David Bowie <2015>

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CTgirl 7432 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-15, 12:26 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 13, My word is my bond"
Great job FloPo!! You had so little to work with (CBS certainly has been miserly this year with their clues and promos!) We've been waiting so long for this game to break open, I hope that it happens this week (because if it doesn't, I'm going to have a hard time watching the finale!!)

Here's a little social media to back up a Rodney boot. Jenn had said earlier in her interviews that she liked Rodney so they had time to bond at Ponderosa. Now Shirin is saying positive things about Rodney in her RHAP interview campaigning for Survivor 31 to the point where she called Rodney and asked for some impressions to use on the podcast. They clearly had time to become friends at Ponderosa. Also yesterday Rodney tweeted that if he gets 200 retweets, he'll release some new impressions. Sounds like a swan song to me!

Thanks for all your sleuthing FP, you rock!


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Flowerpower1 777 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-15, 02:42 PM (EST)
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7. "Social media...."
Ohhhhh thanks for all that social media scoop, CTGirl! All good to know, sure sounds like they did have a few days to bond at ponderosa!


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kingfish 18285 desperate attention whore postings
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05-13-15, 12:29 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: State of the Spoiling Episode 13, My word is my bond"
LAST EDITED ON 05-13-15 AT 12:30 PM (EST)

Nicely done, FP, entertaining and intelligently deduced.

That's Old School SOTSing.

And did I hear the wind sighing...Scarlett?

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