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"Merge Dynamics"
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Corvis7 57 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-15, 03:46 PM (EST)
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"Merge Dynamics"
I've been looking at the dynamics of the tribes and how it might all come together at the merge.

We know Dan, Mike and Kelly are tight. We know that Rodney is pissed off and will want another option.

Sierra is a total free agent. She voted with Dan and Mike last time, but there's no doubt she doesn't want to be in an alliance with them if there's a better option.

On the other side, you have Hali, Jenn and Joe. Will is with them unless a better option comes along. Carolyn will likely stick with them because she's certainly not going to go with Shirin.

Tyler is a free agent with a tie to Carolyn. Shirin is a free agent with ties to, literally, no one.

So let’s say Carolyn pulls Tyler into her new alliance with the No Collars. That’s six people and they just need one more to have the majority. Sierra is there for the pickin’. They could even grab Shirin, who has nowhere else to go. Or they could exploit Rodney’s anger, though I think this is less likely as Rodney’s personality will likely turn off this group.

On the other side, you have a weak four person alliance with Dan-Mike-Kelly-Rodney. They need three people to get the magic number of seven. Who are they going to pull in? Shirin? Seems unlikely just based on personality. Sierra can’t stand them and would love to have a better option. And I think she’d fit in well with the No Collars as well as Carolyn. Can Rodney pull Tyler in? If I were Tyler, I’d go with Carolyn over Rodney any day. And maybe Tyler can help pull Rodney into the alliance with Carolyn.

I really think the alliance of Dan, Mike, and Kelly is in serious trouble at the merge. And Mike seems the most likely target now that individual immunity is in play. Or I suppose Rodney if he doesn’t work himself into the opposing alliance.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Merge Dynamics dabo 03-26-15 1
   RE: Merge Dynamics Jims03 03-26-15 2
       RE: Merge Dynamics PepeLePew13 03-27-15 7
 RE: Merge Dynamics michel2 03-26-15 3
   RE: Merge Dynamics Flowerpower1 03-27-15 4
       RE: Merge Dynamics suzzee 03-27-15 5
           RE: Merge Dynamics Georganna 03-29-15 11
 RE: Merge Dynamics coldbrewer 03-27-15 6
   RE: Merge Dynamics Round Robin 03-28-15 8
   RE: Merge Dynamics Outsider32 03-29-15 9
       ? michel2 03-29-15 10
           RE: ? Outsider32 04-01-15 13
               RE: ? Outsider32 04-02-15 14
                   RE: ? Round Robin 04-02-15 15
                   RE: ? Georganna 04-02-15 16
                   RE: ? mimo 04-03-15 20
               RE: ? Flowerpower1 04-02-15 17
                   RE: ? Outsider32 04-03-15 19
               RE: ? michel2 04-02-15 18
       RE: Merge Dynamics dabo 03-29-15 12
 Insight from RHAP Flowerpower1 04-03-15 21
   RE: Insight from RHAP coldbrewer 04-03-15 22
       RE: Insight from RHAP tribephyl 04-04-15 23
           RE: Insight from RHAP CTgirl 04-04-15 24
 RE: Merge Dynamics Corvis7 04-17-15 25
   RE: Merge Dynamics Brownroach 04-17-15 26
 Carolyn Outsider32 05-09-15 27

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dabo 26885 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-15, 04:44 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
Good stuff, many thanks. Yes, Mike may well regret sparing Rodney to oust Joaquin simply on the numbers game.

Old Blues: dysfunctional
Dan, Mike ally
Kelly, Mike ally
Mike, focus
Rodney, wildcard, anti Mike, anti Sierra
Sierra, wildcard, anti Dan, anti Mike, anti Rodney

Old Nos: odds against
Hali, Jenn ally
Jenn, focus
Joe, Jenn ally
Will, potential loose cannon

Old Whites: shattered
Carolyn, ally with Tyler, anti Shirin
Shirin, loose cannon
Tyler, ally with Carolyn

Dan, Kelly, Mike
Hali, Jenn, Joe
Carolyn, Tyler
Rodney
Sierra
Shirin
Will

It all comes down to who Jenn and Mike and their allies can influence.

Carolyn and Jenn have HIIs. An HII remains to be found at Escameca. Escameca will most likely be the merge camp.

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Jims03 101 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-15, 07:46 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
LAST EDITED ON 03-26-15 AT 07:51 PM (EST)

I'm wondering if the Kelly connection with the No Collars and the Joe connection with the Blue Collars could merge the groups together. My first instinct would be like the above two analysis, that the core Blues are going to go against the Core Reds.

But considering that Mike/Dan/Sierra just scrambled to save Joe, maybe Joe pulls them over to join up with Jenn and Hali? This alliance setup would potentially be ridiculously gigantic, as it would include Will and Carolyn (and possibly Tyler by extension?) as well. Such a setup would basically only leave out Rodney and Shirin (or Tyler) as the easy merge boot.

It seems unlikely, though, that a line wouldn't get drawn almost down the middle like in most merges. It's kind of rare for one giant super-alliance to form. The only example I can think of where this happened was Micronesia, where Eliza and Jason were at the bottom and had nowhere to go. Amazon is another example (Roger and Dave), so maybe it is possible, since both of those were swap seasons. You could also argue Tocantins, so maybe it's not that rare after all.

I feel like, in general, Joe is more likely to go back to Jenn/Hali/Will because of past voting history. There weren't any rumbling from Will during the swap, so I'm guessing he's content to stay. Carolyn has no real reason to go over to the Blues. Especially if they see the writing on the wall of Rodney and Tyler flipping to them, they may as well start dismantling Blue while they still can.

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PepeLePew13 25675 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-15, 08:46 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
LAST EDITED ON 03-27-15 AT 08:47 PM (EST)

Joaquin just confirmed in all of his exit interviews that Mike and Joe got really tight with each other (he called them the "other bromance"), so I have no doubt that Mike is joining in with the three No Collars + Kelly for at least the next couple of episodes, probably with Dan and Sierra in tow as well.

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michel2 852 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-15, 08:07 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
Mike just saved Joe so there's a natural Blue Collar - No collar alliance building especially since we know Hali and Jenn really like Kelly.

Mike, Kelly, Dan, Sierra, Joe, Hali and Jenn should take over for now with Tyler and Rodney being in immdiate danger.

Shrin's role will come later. I think she has a very interesting role to play down the line like the animal imagery sggested.

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03-27-15, 09:42 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
Thanks for posting, Corvis....boy, it seems like everyone of us has a different vantage point! WOW, judging just from our answers it's going to be totally up in the air. Here is my 2 cents....

People that are solidly together:

Joe ~ Hali ~ Jenn ~ Will ~ Carolyn ~ Shirin.....Shirin will stay with the only people she has an affiliation with, I think.

Mike ~ Dan ~ Kelly ~ Sierra (she has no other real connection with anyone, and she made her choice last ep. She threw in with the blues and she will stay there until a better option presents)

The Free Agents:

Tyler ~ Will run to Carolyn/Shirin...could be really interesting, because Tyler made a vote against Joe last ep, wouldn't be surprised if he were targeted this week. But, Carolyn threw in with the no collars and voted out Max, so Jenn/Hali may agree to keep Tyler with them....for now.
Rodney ~ He will most likely stay with the blues as well, but he is a scary dude at this point.

*Joe does have a tie now with Mike and Dan, so he could spare them with the next vote....who's left to target? Rodney and Kelly
*Joe could be sitting in the very best spot, with affiliations to both sides, but could be a dangerous position as well

*Last week Carolyn made a really bad move by chastising Shirin. Shirin became an outsider, and outlier last week, and Carolyn should have kissed her a$$, and worked hard to bring her closer. Now, Shirin will be a free agent and can do what she wants, she will also be a "no threat", and could come back to bite Carolyn and the others later.



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suzzee 5772 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-15, 11:15 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
I definitely see Shirin going with White Collars or more specifically wherever Hali goes. This link is a secret scene where Hali and Shirin have a heart to heart. Hali does a great job of comforting, understanding and giving Shirin some insights on how others perceive her in the game. Shirin gives a bit of background on herself and how it effects her behavior. Great little clip.

In essence Hali looks like she made a solid bond with Shirin by just being straight forward without criticism. Something that Shirin really needed and it looks like Shirin could back Hali all the way.

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/03/25/survivor-host-jeff-probst-why-players-no-longer-get-drunk


I should be watched....closely.

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Georganna 438 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-15, 07:54 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-15 AT 08:40 AM (EST)

I agree!

Sometimes the instinctively 'maternal' members of a group are not only not old, they are sometimes also not women:

Hali is - like Danni, JT, Cirie, Sophie, Danny (GC), Alexis, Jimmy (Johnson), Sandy, Rita, David (Murphy), Benry, Jaime and Josh - a Cancer.

And, of course, the 'maternal' instinct is not always selfless. Or benign. Or eternally welcome.

Shirin is - like Sugar, Bob, Gillian, Brian (Heidik), Jason, Ibrehem, Anthony, Misty, Jonathan (Penner), Yve, Alina, Phillip, Ciera and Woo - a Pisces:

Intuitively responsive to a nurturing hand but sometimes also quite capable of nipping the hand that nurtures ...

G

Note: Carolyn is a Libra. Sometimes conciliatory. Sometimes diplomatic. Always manipulative. Usually judgemental. Often more nagging conscience than soothing comfort.

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coldbrewer 148 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-15, 02:26 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
I was reading through the social media posts here at this site. I recall a post saying Tyler, Sierra, & Mike were visiting Dan's home in Maine. If they're going out of the way to do that, me thinks they bonded in jury. For that to happen, I would speculate that Hali, Jenn, Carolyn, Joe, and Will - along with the free agents of Rodney and Tyler would take out the blue collar 5.


thanks Agman!

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Round Robin 2799 desperate attention whore postings
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03-28-15, 01:36 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
As p1ssed off as Rodney was over Joaquin getting axed, I find it a little difficult to believe that he won't become obnoxious enough to get himself axed. There may be some others planning to use him as a finals goat, but I would not be shocked that enough people got sick of him in the next episode or 2 to boot him instead.
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Outsider32 325 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-15, 02:45 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
I don't think Carolyn and Tyler are working with the No Collar four at all and they know they are dangerous because three are younger. I can see Carolyn and Tyler working deals and making a alliance with Mike because one, those three are older and a little bit more wiser to the game. I mean Jenn and crew basically teamed up against the older people on No Collar. It was almost like the pretty people alliance on Caramoan or Ozzy's two original four person alliances on Micronesia and South Pacific. And Micro had someone named Cirie who infiltrated that and SoPa had Jim that wanted Elyse out as Ozzy's main ally to give Jim a f4 opening(Cochran took care of that though).
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michel2 852 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-15, 02:54 AM (EST)
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10. "?"
What?
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Outsider32 325 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-15, 07:45 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: ?"
On Caramoan there was an alliance of Reynold, Eddie, Hope, and Ally and that annoyed Sherri and Laura. On SoPa there was an alliance of Ozzy, Keith, Whitney, Elyse and while he was a fifth it annoyed Jim. And he worked with Cochran, Dawn, Keith, and Whitney to vote Elyse out. And now I learn hearing him on RHAP he planned to get Ozzy out. In Micronesia there was an alliance with Ozzy, Amanda, Parvati, and James and the swap split them up and Cirie got in with the women and got Parvati to vote Ozzy out.

When an alliance of Joe, Jenn, and Hali is that obvious someone is gonna figure something out and realize they cannot coast to the end. And the blue collar side is easier to break up. Mike, Kelly, and Dan are not so solid. Mike can turn on Dan, he's not his main ally. Sierra has no allegiance to any of them and neither does Rodney. So when it comes down to them, Sierra and Rodney will be battling with the other three for Tyler and Carolyn's allegiance. And if they chose Mike, Kelly, and Dan, Carolyn has the idol she can play at the perfect time to get rid of Dan or maybe Kelly if she has to. Considering Carolyn many times has been considered in exit interviews to be a smart player, she should be able to figure this out that the bc route is better than the nc route.

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Outsider32 325 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-15, 01:12 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: ?"
And based on that first vote, I was indeed spot on. NC was targeted but idol saved them.

Now the person to watch out for is Rodney but I think Dan will end up being a scapegoat to get out and that will force Mike to I believe play a role of kiss-up.

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Round Robin 2799 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-15, 01:24 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: ?"
Rodney isn't anybody to watch out for. He's another d-bag who thinks his sh1t doesn't stink and the rest of the cast owes him an unimpeded path to the win. Can't wait to hear his rat and snake speech when he's serving on the jury at the final TC. WAAAAAH!!!!!
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Georganna 438 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-15, 07:30 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: ?"
LAST EDITED ON 04-02-15 AT 07:31 AM (EST)

Outsider,

Watching the show last night, I just knew that I'd read the script earlier... somewhere.

Congratulations!

G

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mimo 563 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-15, 10:50 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: ?"
Good call Outsider32!! Now the real question for me is whether Jenn just got lucky when she played her idol or whether she suspected she was the target. And if she did suspect she was the target, was it because Will told her they were going for her since he thought they were actually going for Hali (and thus his vote.) Now Will knows he was lied to and his former NoCollars tribemates know they can't trust him and that Tyler and Caroline went with Blues. It will be interesting to see what Jenn/Joe/Hali/Shirin do next. Can they exploit this knowledge or not.


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Flowerpower1 770 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-15, 09:08 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: ?"
Outsider: What you say above makes absolutely no sense to me. When you weigh the two sides, 2 girls and Joe look far easier to beat in the long run than the BC's. And, as you note, Carolyn has an idol as well.

Joe is not going to win every immunity challenge from here on out.

Bogus.

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Outsider32 325 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-15, 00:55 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: ?"
Its not easier to go with NC, especially with a tight three like that. Rodney also already went to Carolyn and unveiled his final four plan to her making it obvious the blues were not tight.
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michel2 852 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-15, 06:35 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: ?"
I wasn't questioning your plan, just your syntax.
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dabo 26885 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-15, 10:10 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
The big question re the White Collars is whether Carolyn can put the past behind her and ally with Shirin. Shirin has few options, without a lifeline from Carolyn she aligns with the No Collars.
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Flowerpower1 770 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-15, 02:56 PM (EST)
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21. "Insight from RHAP"
Listened to RHAP this AM and Kelly was interviewed. Shirin has told us in an EW interview that she and Hali and Jenn had an agreement to take out Kelly next. Well, Kelly says that she was aligned with Carolyn and Will on the old Nagarote. So, Joe would have been a swing vote.

That's why Carolyn probably went with Kelly and Will to join BC, Mike and Rodney. Kelly said that Carolyn knew Kelly had Mike in her back pocket and Kelly knew that Carolyn had Tyler.

Now that Kelly is gone, will anything change? Carolyn had more options with the BC's. Will she weasel into Mike's good graces? Apparently Rodney is working hard to keep Will with him.

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coldbrewer 148 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-15, 04:50 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Insight from RHAP"
I don't think anything will change. I would think Carolyn is working with blue collar because of the age difference. If Rodney can keep Will in the fold, I suspect the days are numbered for Joe, Jenn, & Hali.
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tribephyl 11498 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-15, 02:01 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Insight from RHAP"
If Rodney can keep Will in the fold, I suspect the days are numbered for Joe, Jenn, & Hali.

Will has already burned his No-Collar bridges, he will stay with anyone who will keep him. And with Rodney ACTIVELY pursuing Will and keeping him in the loop, then YES, Rodney will keep Will. Will's game, at this moment depends on staying with Rodney.
BUT, while that does speak of some bad times ahead for J/J/H, that actually ALL hinges on Rodney staying with BC.

And THAT, to me, since I know he hangs with Joaquin and NOT Mike, Sierra, Dan, Jenn, Joe and Hali, makes me think Rodney doesn't make it much farther at all.

Conversely, the other side of my brain says... large groups of folks taking selfies together? That seems like Jury behavior.
And if Dan, Mike, Sierra, Jenn, Joe and Hali are 6 of the eight jurors, that leaves... *shiver*

Carolyn, Rodney and Will F3? Someone please talk me off this branch!

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04-04-15, 08:57 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Insight from RHAP"
At least it would be a slam dunk for Carolyn!!

I keep on going back to the boner that Jeff has for this season and figure that a guy must win, specifically Mike or Joe, maybe Tyler. Carolyn, Tyler, Will, Rodney F4? But there was such a lack of development at the White camp pre-merge that I doubt they make it to the end.

I'm rooting for the underdogs though and hope the swingers swing red this week.

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Corvis7 57 desperate attention whore postings
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04-17-15, 10:52 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
Just bumping this to talk a little about the dynamics in the merged tribe. Right now, there are nine remaining Survivors. If Mike is going to make a move to break up his huge alliance, this is the week to do it. You never want to do it with an even number of Survivors, and if he waits til seven, he won't have the numbers, as the likely boots of Jenn and Shirin will be gone.

Mike's best move is for him to get Dan and Sierra to agree to pulling in Shirin and Jenn and targeting one of Rodney, Tyler, Carolyn and Will. (Hopefully Rodney, through strategically, I'd boot Tyler instead.)

The other way I can see this playing out is Jenn gets booted next, Shirin wins immunity at eight remaining players, most vote for Mike but he idols out Rodney (or someone else). Then at seven, Dan, Mike, Sierra and Shirin take over the game.

I suppose I am working from the belief that Mike makes it to the end based on editing and if he's not in the final 3, then all of this is bunk.

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Brownroach 15234 desperate attention whore postings
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04-17-15, 12:47 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Merge Dynamics"
Don't forget that Carolyn has an HII.

Speaking of Mike's HII, the opening recap of the previous Ep stated words to the effect that after Joe got the clue at the reward, he tried to find the idol but Mike "beat him to it". So are we supposed to think the idol Mike found is the merge idol? It sure looked like the blue Escameca idol to me, though Georganna posits that the specifics of where Mike found it have a vague correlation to what was in Joe's clue. I can't believe they wouldn't use a purple idol as the merge idol.

Unless they trotted out the Buff-o-Matic to change the color. (If I were really cynical, I'd say that it's actually the Escameca idol, but production decides to pretend it's the merge idol because they want Mike to win.)

Ideally the others should all see that they need to get rid of Mike pronto or else...

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05-09-15, 11:37 PM (EST)
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27. "Carolyn"
So if Carolyn plays her idol and idols out Dan or Rodney if Dan plays his advantage, can she trust Mike to take her to the end? Mike can beat anyone in FTC but the thing is at F4 if Mike does not win that immunity he is gone. And he probably stands a better chance at winning it without Carolyn there.

With Carolyn on the ballot two things stick out at me.

1.She wins f4 immunity and makes the mistake of taking Mike to the end with her and Sierra. Thus earning her second chances bid.

2.Mike takes her out at f5 because the advantage forced her hand a week too early. Thus earning her second chances bid.

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