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"S30 Confessionals Tracker"
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Original message

dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-15, 03:05 PM (EST)
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"S30 Confessionals Tracker"
The thread for all things confessionals! And tracking. And, hey, if you think of something I might have missed, clue me in. I'm not anarchy, I'm the greater good!

Just for shucks, which of these quotes may have come from our eventual winner this season?

Class has nothing to do with it, it's Survivor warfare. (Carolyn)

The hard part is not the juggling, the hard part is not looking at your hands when you're juggling. (Dan)

We're not in the individual game, we're doing the best for us as a crew. (Jenn)

Now it's game on! (uncredited female voice-over, damn His Jiffiness!)

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Week 1 dabo 03-03-15 1
   RE: Week 1 michel2 03-03-15 2
       RE: Week 1 dabo 03-04-15 3
           RE: Week 1 michel2 03-04-15 4
               RE: Week 1 dabo 03-05-15 5
 Week 2 dabo 03-05-15 6
   RE: Week 2 michel2 03-05-15 7
       RE: Week 2 dabo 03-05-15 8
           RE: Week 2 michel2 03-05-15 9
 Week 3 dabo 03-16-15 10
   RE: Week 3 michel2 03-16-15 11
       RE: Week 3 CTgirl 03-16-15 12
           RE: Week 3 michel2 03-16-15 14
       RE: Week 3 Sheldor 03-16-15 13
           RE: Week 3 michel2 03-16-15 15
               RE: Week 3 dabo 03-17-15 16
 Week 4 dabo 03-19-15 17
 Week 5 dabo 03-20-15 18
   Week 5 Evals dabo 03-21-15 19
       RE: Week 5 Evals michel2 03-21-15 20
           RE: Week 5 Evals dabo 03-21-15 21
               RE: Week 5 Evals michel2 03-22-15 22
       RE: Week 5 Evals Flowerpower1 03-22-15 23
           RE: Week 5 Evals dabo 03-22-15 24
 Week 6 dabo 03-30-15 25
   RE: Week 6 Flowerpower1 03-30-15 26
       RE: Week 6 dabo 03-30-15 27
       RE: Week 6 michel2 03-30-15 28
           RE: Week 6 Flowerpower1 03-31-15 29
           RE: Week 6 suzzee 03-31-15 30
               RE: Week 6 dabo 03-31-15 31
 Week 7 dabo 04-07-15 32
   RE: Week 7 Flowerpower1 04-07-15 33
       RE: Week 7 dabo 04-08-15 34
 Week 8 dabo 04-10-15 35
   RE: Week 8 CTgirl 04-10-15 36
       RE: Week 8 dabo 04-10-15 37
       RE: Week 8 Flowerpower1 04-11-15 38
 Week 9 dabo 04-16-15 39
   RE: Week 9 michel2 04-16-15 40
       RE: Week 9 dabo 04-16-15 41
           RE: Week 9 Corvis7 04-17-15 42
               RE: Week 9 SuperGr0ver 04-17-15 43
   RE: Week 9 Flowerpower1 04-17-15 44
       I third tribephyl 04-17-15 45
           RE: I 4th CTgirl 04-18-15 46
 Week 10 dabo 04-23-15 47
   RE: Week 10 michel2 04-23-15 48
   RE: Week 10 Flowerpower1 04-23-15 49
 Week 11 dabo 05-01-15 50
 Week 12 dabo 05-08-15 51
 Week 13 dabo 05-18-15 52

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-15, 03:16 PM (EST)
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1. "Week 1"
The week in which no one lands in zeroville.


episode 1 | total
Carolyn M 7 | 7
Dan E 4 | 4
Hali N 2 | 2
Jenn N 7 | 7
Joaquin M 3 | 3
Joe N 3 | 3
Kelly E 1 | 1
Lindsey E 2 | 2
Max M 3 | 3
Mike E 2 | 2
Nina N 1 | 1
Rodney E 3 | 3
Shirin M 2 | 2
Sierra E 1 | 1
So M 6 | 6 X
Tyler M 3 | 3
Vince N 5 | 5
Will N 2 | 2

TOTEM POLE
Carolyn M 7
Jenn N 7
Vince N 5
Dan E 4
Joaquin M 3
Joe N 3
Max M 3
Rodney E 3
Tyler M 3
Hali N 2
Lindsey E 2
Mike E 2
Shirin M 2
Will N 2
Kelly E 1
Nina N 1
Sierra E 1

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-15, 06:46 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Week 1"
Everyone with at least one confessional: That's the beauty of the 90 minute premiere.

Considering that Max, Joaquin and Tyler each had three confessionals, I think it's a great sign for Joe and Rodney who also had that many confessionals, The didn't go to TC yet they weren't forgotten.

I believe this must be the first time that a premiere sees two women sit at the very top of the totem pole (I even had them at 8 while Vince and Dan were at 6. All other numbers match). Carolyn and especially Jenn who didn't even go to TC, are on a trajectory that only male stars usually have. It's doubtful that they can keep that momentum very long but where will that leave them?

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-15, 11:02 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Week 1"
LAST EDITED ON 03-05-15 AT 12:22 PM (EST)

Yes, love that the premiere was long enough to give everyone some me time, especially since we have all-new untested contestants! (On the meh side of the equation, this "Collars" thing in some ways is already starting to seem a redo of Brawn v Brain v Beauty.)

It is unique that we have two strong females sharing the top spots on the totem pole. We should pay attention to the movements on the totem pole this early in things, as the tribe which goes to TC tends to get sole focus after IC. Hm, just occurred to me, here might be an interesting way to break it down per episode for awhile:

PLAYER/TRIBE STATS WEEK 1

Carolyn M 5+2
(So M 4+2)
Joaquin M 3+0
Max M 2+1
Tyler M 2+1
Shirin M 2+0
18+6

Jenn N 7
Vince N 5
Joe N 3
Hali N 2
Will N 2
Nina N 1
20

Dan E 4
Rodney E 3
Lindsey E 2
Mike E 2
Kelly E 1
Sierra E 1
13

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-15, 05:24 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Week 1"
Yes, breaking it down by tribe could work but I think the best barometer would be to count and compare everyone's confessionals before the IC. The post-IC confessionals for the tribe going to TC could then be added in parentheses.
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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-15, 01:14 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Week 1"
Altered Masaya counts per suggestion.
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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-15, 12:21 PM (EST)
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6. "Week 2"
Vince reaches double digits this week, and then flames out! Not that unusual for this early in the game, really, he was in #3 on the totem pole last week. (That doesn't mean #4 through #17 automatically climb on the totem pole, though, as it is simply a weekly device ranking the players still in the game after each episode.)

Our first zeroes of the season include Carolyn, biggest drop, who is no longer tied for #1 on the totem pole, settling in at #2. Dan also zeroed, as did tied bottom-dwellers Sierra and Kelly (well, duh, it's a Kelly).


episode 1 2 | total
Carolyn M 7 0 | 7
Dan E 4 0 | 4
Hali N 2 2 | 4
Jenn N 7 2 | 9
Joaquin M 3 1 | 4
Joe N 3 2 | 5
Kelly E 1 0 | 1
Lindsey E 2 1 | 3
Max M 3 2 | 5
Mike E 2 2 | 4
Nina N 1 2 | 3
Rodney E 3 2 | 5
Shirin M 2 1 | 3
Sierra E 1 0 | 1
Tyler M 3 1 | 4
Vince N 5 6 | 11 x
Will N 2 4 | 6
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6

TOTEM POLE
Jenn N 9 ^
Carolyn M 7
Will N 6 ^
Joe N 5 ^
Max M 5 ^
Rodney E 5 ^
Dan E 4
Hali N 4 ^
Joaquin M 4 ^
Mike E 4 ^
Tyler M 4 ^
Lindsey E 3
Nina N 3 ^
Shirin M 3
Kelly E 1
Sierra E 1

PLAYER/TRIBE STATS WEEK 2

(Vince N 3+3=6)
Will N 2+2=4
Hali N 1+1=2
Jenn N 2+0=2
Joe N 1+1=2
Nina N 1+1=2
10+8=18

Max M 2
Joaquin M 1
Shirin M 1
Tyler M 1
Carolyn M 0
5

Mike E 2
Rodney E 2
Lindsey E 1
Dan E 0
Kelly E 0
Sierra E 0
5

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-15, 04:56 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Week 2"
Thank you very much for dividing the confessionals for the TC tribe. I haven't rewatched the episode yet so I wasn't sure if Jennn had a confessional after the IC loss. Since her name was on the chopping block, that puts a big question mark on her chances.
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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-15, 05:14 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Week 2"
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-15 AT 05:44 PM (EST)

YW. Too early to call a pattern (and no spoiling help anyway), but So had the post-IC confessional going into commercial break last week, Vince had it this week.

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-15, 10:51 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Week 2"
LAST EDITED ON 03-05-15 AT 10:53 PM (EST)

Yes, it's the kiss-of-death placement for the big blindside. It's very formulaic but I guess they haven't caught on that they spoil the outcome this way.

ETA: I've finished taking my notes and I must say that, even without a confessional, Jenn had a very strong presence after the IC. She was the one that talked about eliminating Vince and her banter with Jeff was something special.

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-15, 12:00 PM (EST)
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10. "Week 3"
Jenn reaches double digits this week and is securely atop the totem pole. Carolyn continues to lose ground as it is now a four-way tie for the number two position. Sierra zeroed and just owns the bottom spot. Max zeroed as well but got a blur spot over his mouth (his mouth?) when he saw the new nocollar Vinceless tribe: Should I count that as an anti-confessional?

Time to start looking for patterns.


episode 1 2 3 | total
Carolyn M 7 0 2 | 9
Dan E 4 0 1 | 5
Hali N 2 2 2 | 6
Jenn N 7 2 4 | 13
Joaquin M 3 1 2 | 6
Joe N 3 2 4 | 9
Kelly E 1 0 1 | 2
Lindsey E 2 1 3 | 6
Max M 3 2 0 | 5
Mike E 2 2 3 | 7
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6 X
Rodney E 3 2 4 | 9
Shirin M 2 1 2 | 5
Sierra E 1 0 0 | 1
Tyler M 3 1 2 | 6
Will N 2 4 3 | 9
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11

TOTEM POLE

Jenn N 13
Carolyn M 9
Joe N 9 ^
Rodney E 9 ^
Will N 9 ^
Mike E 7 ^
Hali N 6 ^
Joaquin M 6 ^
Lindsey E 6 ^
Tyler M 6 ^
Dan E 5
Max M 5
Shirin M 5 ^
Kelly E 2 ^
Sierra E 1

PLAYER/TRIBE STATS WEEK 3

Jenn N 3+1=4
Joe N 3+1=4
(Nina N 2+1=3)
Will N 1+2=3
Hali N 1+1=2
10+6+16

Rodney E 4
Lindsey E 3
Mike E 3
Dan E 1
Kelly E 1
Sierra E 0
12

Carolyn M 2
Joaquin M 2
Shirin M 2
Tyler M 2
Max M 0
8

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-15, 04:51 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Week 3"
I'm impressed with Hali's consistency. Being a non-strategic, quiet woman, she could be right there with Sierra and Kelly but, instead, she sits right in the middle of the totem, a place where many winners have sat at this stage of the game.

Carolyn is mostly about the idol. She should play it favorably at some point but after that?

I don't see a useful pattern yet just that, as expected, the boottee gets a lot of airtime. It must be noted that both Vince and Nina were potrayed as not fitting in the episode preceding their exit. The votes didn't come out of nowhere. Of course, in this season of oddballs, this doesn't help much. Sorry Pepe...

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03-16-15, 04:54 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Week 3"
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-15 AT 04:56 PM (EST)

Any ideas from past year's confessional patterns who might be the post-swap boot?

(Probably someone from the bottom half?)

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-15, 08:12 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Week 3"
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-15 AT 08:21 PM (EST)

S29 = Kelley: UTR
S28 = Cliff: Star Character
S27 = Kat: UTR
S26 = Matt: Big Character
S25 = Dana: (Quit) Invisible
S24 = Monica: UTR
S21 = Tyrone: Big Character
S17 = Jacquie and Marcus: UTR and Big Character

No real patterns unless you want to say that it's practically alternating between UTR and Big Characters. Of course, that would mean production interference and no one believes that happens...

NB. Some seasons aren't listed because they had no swaps

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Sheldor 702 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-15, 07:37 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Week 3"
michel wrote "It must be noted that both Vince and Nina were potrayed as not fitting in the episode preceding their exit."

So in the Previous Episode (3) the players portrayed as not fitting in for each Tribe were:

Blue Collar: Mike, Dan
White Collar: Shirin
Red Collar: n/a (perhaps Will)

but vidcaps show Shirin safe in Episode 5 so maybe Dan or Mike?

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-15, 08:14 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Week 3"
We should add Rodney and Lindsey in that list because they were involved in the arguments just like Mike and Dan. That would leave 5 boot candiates which isn't exactly spoiling anything!

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-15, 10:39 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Week 3"
Agree. The dynamics at Blue Collar are somewhat fascinating but very erratic. Rodney really jumped into center stage with his mile a minute verbal diarrhea in this episode, and Lindsey is quick on the draw ready to jump to conclusions (right, wrong, we just don't know, she's quick!). Consistency is a good confessionals trait, but in this tribe you want to keep your head down.
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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-19-15, 10:15 PM (EST)
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17. "Week 4"
Joe, Max and Tyler zero this week; double zeroes for Blurmouth Max, might be a bad sign . Jenn once again stays on top of the totem pole. Rodney and Will reach double digits and move ahead of Carolyn, who also reached double digits. Mike at double digits also is now tied with Carolyn for the fourth spot. Hali's steady 2 2 2 is now 2 2 2 1, still very steady. Blue Kelly and Blue Sierra finally get more airtime as their tribe finally goes to TC, doubling their previous totals.


episode 1 2 3 4 | total
Carolyn M 7 0 2 1 | 10
Dan E 4 0 1 1 | 6
Hali N 2 2 2 1 | 7
Jenn N 7 2 4 2 | 15
Joaquin M 3 1 2 1 | 7
Joe N 3 2 4 0 | 9
Kelly E 1 0 1 2 | 4
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7 X
Max M 3 2 0 0 | 5
Mike E 2 2 3 3 | 10
Rodney E 3 2 4 3 | 12
Shirin M 2 1 2 1 | 6
Sierra E 1 0 0 1 | 2
Tyler M 3 1 2 0 | 6
Will N 2 4 3 2 | 11
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6

TOTEM POLE

Jenn N 15
Rodney E 12 ^
Will N 11 ^
Carolyn M 10
Mike E 10 ^
Joe N 9
Hali N 7
Joaquin M 7
Dan E 6 ^
Shirin M 6 ^
Tyler M 6
Max M 5
Kelly E 4
Sierra E 2

PLAYER/TRIBE STATS WEEK 4

Mike E 2+1=3
Rodney E 2+1=3
Kelly E 0+2=2
Dan E 0+1=1
(Lindsey E 1+0=1)
Sierra E 0+1=1
5+6=11

Jenn N 2
Will N 2
Hali N 1
Joe N 0
5

Carolyn M 1
Joaquin M 1
Shirin M 1
Max M 0
Tyler M 0
3

This last feature has outlived itself, being as next week they will swap to two tribes. Low totals this week were also influenced by the reintroduction of separate Reward and Immunity challenges.

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-20-15, 12:08 PM (EST)
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18. "Week 5"

episode 1 2 3 4 5 | total
Carolyn MN 7 0 2 1 3 | 13
Dan EE 4 0 1 1 1 | 7
Hali NN 2 2 2 1 3 | 10 dd*
Jenn NN 7 2 4 2 4 | 19
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 | 8
Joe NE 3 2 4 0 0 | 9
Kelly EN 1 0 1 2 3 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9 x
Mike EE 2 2 3 3 5 | 15
Rodney EE 3 2 4 3 1 | 13
Shirin MN 2 1 2 1 3 | 9
Sierra EE 1 0 0 1 4 | 6
Tyler ME 3 1 2 0 1 | 7
Will NN 2 4 3 2 1 | 12
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7

TOTEM POLE

Jenn NN 19
Mike EE 15 ^
Carolyn MN 13 ^
Rodney EE 13
Will NN 12
Hali NN 10 ^
Joe NE 9
Shirin MN 9 ^
Joaquin ME 8
Dan EE 7
Kelly EN 7 ^
Tyler ME 7
Sierra EE 6

Back later with some evaluations.

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-15, 00:28 AM (EST)
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19. "Week 5 Evals"
NAGAROTE total confessionals 21.

Max from Nagarote was our boot this week.
His pattern is 3 2 0 0 4 | 9 and will now fall out.
Notably, he scored a high 4 confessionals after a 0 0. Booties getting a high confessional count on the way out isn't unusual. Vanishing for two episodes prior is not unknown but doesn't happen all that often.
Max was a classic case of a lot of book smarts meets real world completely unprepared. But if he did one good thing for his new tribe it was to warn them away from thinking poorly of themselves, they are not misfits. So thank you, Max. They may think of themselves as underdogs, but in Survivor underdogs have a fighting chance.

Jenn also had a high 4, her pattern is 7 2 4 2 4 | 19.
Up and down. But she has been atop the totem pole from the outset and appears to be in no danger for now.
However, she appears to be the sort who occupies the natural center of gravity in any group, the rest orbit around her, which could spell disaster after the merge.
It also remains to be seen if she can adapt to the individual gang as she instinctively runs with the pack.
It should also be kept in mind she possesses an HII.

Carolyn's pattern is 7 0 2 1 3 | 13 ^.
She shared the top of the totem pole with Jenn at first, lost ground after, but this week she surged back up to a tie for the third position. The zero in this pattern indicates we should look for her to try to stabilize her pattern. She seems ready for the individual game and has shown an ability to scramble.
It should also be kept in mind she possesses an HII.

Hali's pattern is 2 2 2 1 3 | 10 ^.
Very stable and she was the only player to hit double digits this week. She has found a nice central position for herself and will continue to ride that wave.

Shirin's pattern is 2 1 2 1 3 | 9.
I have to admit I have kind of enjoyed watching her, she has character whereas Max had attitude. And who knows, maybe she's a normal back on whatever planet she's from. Shirin is not long for this game. Nothing in her confessionals pattern really stands out, she is just not long for this game.

Kelly's pattern is 1 0 1 2 3 | 7 ^.
Low key, she has hovered at or near the bottom of the totem pole and it took a tribal swap to bring out her game. That surge to 3 came at just the right moment for her, and we now know she has been playing undercover cop and it all makes sense.

Will's pattern is 2 4 3 2 1 | 12.
Will's name has come up at every TC he has attended, accounting for his counts in week's 2 and 3, so his one confessional this week is not a good sign. He is along for the ride.

ESCAMECA total confessionals 13.

Mike's pattern is 2 2 3 3 5 | 15 ^.
Very steady, surging at the swap is a good sign. Mike is the most level-headed player this season, in fact one of the most level-headed players that has ever played the game. This week he bumped up into the number two spot on the totem pole, the only member of Escameca to bump up. His surge had it been larger might have been alarming, though, something to keep in mind.

Sierra's pattern is 1 0 0 1 4 | 6.
Looks bad but it isn't, at least for now. Sierra has been at the bottom of the totem pole all season, still is, but her surge this week allowed her to make up a lot of ground. As the only woman in a tribe where a male/female conflict continues, her story getting underway is a normal thing.

Rodney's pattern is 3 2 4 3 1 | 13.
Bad news. As a central figure in the male/female conflict in Escameca his drop to one confessional this week means he could be in grave danger next week should this tribe go to TC.

Joaquin's pattern is 3 1 2 1 1 | 8.
Nothing really stands out here.

Dan's pattern is 4 0 1 1 1 | 7.
It doesn't look good for Dan in the long run, his steady 1 pattern after the first two weeks is just to remind us he is there.

Tyler's pattern is 3 1 2 0 1 | 7.
Nothing really stands out here.

Joe's pattern is 3 2 4 0 0 | 9.
Not good, his game has stalled out. Killing a chicken last week, becoming the only free spirit in a workaholic tribe this week, we hear not one word about what is going on in his head? Joe could be a sacrificial nobody next week in a rare repeat hidden boot 0 0 move by the editors. Probably not. But his game still is going nowhere.

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-15, 04:28 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Week 5 Evals"
I like your analysis, Dabo. It's interesting that by looking at the containers (the number of confessionals), you get pretty much the same observation as I do looking at the content of those confessionals.

I'm puzzled at Dan's number of confessionals though. He is a huge character but he has very few confessionals. Strange. He runs his mouth in public which is not good game play at all!

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03-21-15, 09:36 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Week 5 Evals"
LAST EDITED ON 03-21-15 AT 09:37 PM (EST)

Dan is a bit perplexing. He's a character, he's amusing. He aggravates other players, unwittingly sticks his foot in his mouth. This last episode he was comedy relief, epic fail at apology and utterly clueless. In ep. 4 he emerged as a condescending chauvinist; even when what he said made perfect sense when it came to execution he was a pathetic fool.

I think we are supposed to like Dan and enjoy his act, but perhaps the editors think he is too rough around the edges so they don't want to ever let us see the whole picture.

Or not.

Rodney's edit is somewhat the opposite, they don't care if we love or loathe him, Rodney is what he is, a stereotype. But at the same time they realize too much Rodney might hurt the show, turn off some viewers so that they might not even tune in next week to see if he finally gets what's coming to him. Y'know?

I honestly have no clue what the "higher standard" stuff was about. Rodney gets to judge everyone but you are on your own trying to figure out what will make you worthy or unworthy.

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03-22-15, 02:07 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Week 5 Evals"
I think I can help you with Rodney's higher standards for women: He was saying that it's OK for guys to sleep with every woman they meet but that women should all be virgins.
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03-22-15, 09:40 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Week 5 Evals"
Thanks for your assessments above, dabo!

Since we are making assessments, I'll add a few as well...

Max: HIs boot was perfect. Goes to show you what a little arrogance can lead to in this show. Shirin and Max were seriously riding high, a perfect set up for a very big fall. The look on Shirin's face = priceless.

Jenn: So far one of the major players of the early game. Rational, smart, able to make a good read on others, and seemingly gets her way. I really like her, and she has an idol!
I think her confessional history is rock stable at this point, her spike was related to her finding the idol, and then directing the boot choice last week. I expect her to be around for a long while.

Carolyn: She is another favorable player imo. She navigated the WC tribe well and is not riding on the fence. And, she has an idol. She's a player. I expect her to make it through to the next phase of the game.

Hali: Agreed....stable. I think she Jenn and Carolyn will make a formidable trio....

Shirin: Totally agree, she's expendable. And, looking at the makeup of the tribes, I feel like she will be gone sooner rather than later. She got her spot light early and it did make her a character, but she failed at the social game.

Kelly: I think she too is expendable. She wasn't in the mix in the early game, she stayed under the radar, but since the BC went to TC, she has had to make a stand. Since then her arc is in full swing, with the head bop, and the swap. Her instincts were to go with Max and Shirin....uh??? Kelly's arc is up and running and will peter out soon, imo.

Will: He's also gotten by, by the skin of his teeth. But, every round you make it through with people bonds you more and more. While expendable to the girls, he will be the last one to go, if they go to TC every time from here on out. If he makes it to individual, he could last a while as a non threat...

Mike: Yes, he's a player, no doubt. He has a good read on people and knows how to treat them, but let's face it, he has a flaw, and that is around his unrelenting work ethic. It's annoying to many. Could be his fatal flaw. He may come across as too much of a dominant alpha type, and may be pegged as the one to take down....He does apparently understand the game of Survivor. But, the conditions do have a way of bringing out your true colors.

Sierra is somewhat like Kelly, in that she was under the radar as well, until her BFF gets booted out, and then the swap. She is the only woman on an all male tribe, fortunately the odds are in her favor that her tribe will win challenges. It will be really interesting to see if she can navigate the game with all these bros. Clearly, she is at odds with Rodney. I think she's a pretty cool cookie, and I really like her.

Rodney: Well, he's clearly the one who socially is the misfit. Now that he is finding another buddy, he could be in trouble, and by his dip in confessionals, I would say that is exactly how it appears.

Joaquin: He seemingly keeps making bad choices. First he got So to take the clue instead of the big bag which led to her demise, now he's bonding with the troll, Rodney. He won't be going, but it seems like he is the kiss of death.

Dan is Mike's back pocket boy. He'll be around until he's either replaced or he does something that spoils trust. He's seriously expendable.

Tyler and Joe: I think these two are the ones to watch. Tyler has kept a very low profile. Carolyn confided in him re: her idol. He's flying low, but seemingly very observant, will be a force in challenges, and he's likable. Same could be said for Joe. Joe has had a bit more to navigate in his first tribe with Vince, but he's not always on the same page as his tribe mates. Will he learn from his mistakes? I think he will be a good force in the challenges, and therefore may become more of a target once the game goes individual. He's going to need some allies. He's very likable as well. I think him going under the radar at a time when there is a mix up is more of a good sign....?



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03-22-15, 10:15 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Week 5 Evals"
Thanks, always good to get more perspective. Big yes about Dan, very good point. He will follow Mike's lead even if he does mess it up somehow, whereas Rodney is headstrong and seemingly believes he can control the game by force of personality. (If he was a bit more Boston Rob and had a tribe of Ometepes that might work.)

I would point out only that Kelly thought initially she should side with the white collar thinkers (inclusive of Carolyn) rather than the no collar go with the flow crowd. And Shirin, at least, was under-estimating her. When Carolyn broke ranks Kelly correctly assessed the situation and realigned with the numbers.

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03-30-15, 01:28 PM (EST)
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25. "Week 6"
Sorry this took so long. On top of everything else, the governor set off a major political disaster around here last week.

Anyway, with the pending merge a lot of recalculations become necessary, factors like youth and athleticism go from plus factors to target factors. It was a fabulous cycle for Nagarote, Escameca continued into the weird. Joe and Shirin reach double digits this week. Tyler and Will zeroed, Dan continued his run of 1. Rodney bumped up on the totem pole, now #3 no longer tied for #3 with Carolyn who loses ground again. Shirin bumps up on the totem pole with a whole new resurrection story. Sierra bumps up! Tyler is now the bottom dweller.


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 | total
Carolyn MN 7 0 2 1 3 1 | 14
Dan EE 4 0 1 1 1 1 | 8
Hali NN 2 2 2 1 3 1 | 11
Jenn NN 7 2 4 2 4 1 | 20
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10 X
Joe NE 3 2 4 0 0 1 | 10
Kelly EN 1 0 1 2 3 1 | 8
Mike EE 2 2 3 3 5 2 | 17
Rodney EE 3 2 4 3 1 3 | 16
Shirin MN 2 1 2 1 3 3 | 12
Sierra EE 1 0 0 1 4 2 | 8
Tyler ME 3 1 2 0 1 0 | 7
Will NN 2 4 3 2 1 0 | 12
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9

TOTEM POLE

Jenn NN 20
Mike EE 17
Rodney EE 16 ^
Carolyn MN 14
Shirin MN 12 ^
Will NN 12
Hali NN 11
Joe NE 10
Dan EE 8
Kelly EN 8
Sierra EE 8 ^
Tyler ME 7

ESCAMECA total confessionals 11

Rodney EE 3 2 4 3 1 3
(Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2)
Mike EE 2 2 3 3 5 2
Sierra EE 1 0 0 1 4 2
Dan EE 4 0 1 1 1 1
Joe NE 3 2 4 0 0 1
Tyler ME 3 1 2 0 1 0

NAGAROTE total confessional 7

Shirin MN 2 1 2 1 3 3
Carolyn MN 7 0 2 1 3 1
Hali NN 2 2 2 1 3 1
Jenn NN 7 2 4 2 4 1
Kelly EN 1 0 1 2 3 1
Will NN 2 4 3 2 1 0

BLUE COLLAR TOTEM POLE

Mike EE 17
Rodney EE 16
Dan EE 8
Kelly EN 8
Sierra EE 8

NO COLLAR TOTEM POLE

Jenn NN 20
Will NN 12
Hali NN 11
Joe NE 10

WHITE COLLAR TOTEM POLE

Carolyn MN 14
Shirin MN 12
Tyler ME 7

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03-30-15, 03:50 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Week 6"
Okay, I am going to jump in on these confessionals...

There are some that I think will now fly under the radar at merge, as lesser threats, and therefore could last a while....All should be considered safe for the next episode...

Carolyn and Hali: Almost identical patterns, both should be safe
Will: Flew under the radar last ep, and should be good at this point
Shirin: Narrowly escaped 2 eps ago, and declared her commitment to adapt, to change, to fit in, and now that it's merge time, she should be good for a bit....
Sierra: She had a peak in her edit with the post Lindsay drama, she should settle down at this point.
Dan: His edit is stable and should remain that way
Mike: He is seemingly one of the stars of the season, he had a spike in his edit when they voted Lindsay out, and he's managed to keep himself afloat. He's settled down now, and I expect he will be safe for this episode.

Those of interest:

Joe: His edit simmered down quite a bit, despite him being a boot choice last week. I expect his edit could start to pick up, as he's a prime physical male that could be a threat. If he doesn't win immunity, he could be a target, but he does have some friends to reunite with....should be safe. At a slight risk.

Jenn: Her edit went from 4 to 1, a big dip, and now we are merging. She is all over the vidcaps, she could be an under the radar target, but I think she will be safe. At slight risk.

Kelly: She was under the radar and then had a nice little spike to her edit. She has settled down once again, but that kind of a dip for her could spell a hidden boot. She's Mike's right hand woman, and we know that Rodney is out for revenge. If he does to Mike, what Mike did to him, Kelly could be toast. At Risk.

Rodney: He's a character for sure. He has been steady throughout the story, but he dipped down and now re-emerged with the last episode. Coming off the Joaquin blindside, I expect him to be in the spotlight....will he crash and burn? He could. At risk.

Tyler: He on the other hand has not had much of a story, but he dipped under the radar last week, and was duped as much as Joaquin was. He's a buff athletic male, he could be in trouble. At risk.


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03-30-15, 04:14 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Week 6"
Thanks for the food for thought.

Totally agree about Shirin. She has a new story going. Not a winner story but a story that will allow her to walk away from this without a permanent reputation as the Girl From Planet Bottomless. She is safe for now.

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03-30-15, 05:20 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Week 6"
Thank you Dabo for continuing to compile the confessionals. Great work. (Which governor made a mess?)

I read your comments FP and I completely agree, especially with the three at risk. Just one thing though: Rodney thinks he's got an alliance with Kelly so if he wants to repay the "favor", he could go after Dan. I think Kelly's in trouble if the others find out that the challenge was thrown to save her.

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03-31-15, 09:07 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Week 6"

Rodney thinks he's got an alliance with Kelly so if he wants to repay the "favor", he could go after Dan. I think Kelly's in trouble if the others find out that the challenge was thrown to save her.

Agree. I thought about Dan too, but these remarks were based solely on the confessional analysis, and Dan is rock steady. Which made me think he will be safe this week.

Kelly, otoh, I think could indeed be in trouble. I agree that someone suspects that they threw it, and hopefully it will come out and impact their decisions. It could impact Tyler the most, who is seen weighing whether to go with the BC's or the NoC's. There is one person that knows definitively that they threw it....Rodney. And, he's set on revenge.


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03-31-15, 10:54 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Week 6"
Dabo, are you from Indiana?


Bring on the carnage.

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03-31-15, 11:03 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Week 6"
I'm from Illinois. But I have lived in Indiana since 1999. And the way things have been going recently I'd rather Rupert Boneham was our governor.
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04-07-15, 11:52 AM (EST)
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32. "Week 7"
Well, the merge happened, and the new tribe name is MRKU and if you don't know who he is his other tetragrammaton is EPMB!

Anyway, this week Mike surged! He is now sharing the top of the totem pole with Jenn. Whichever of them prevails over the other will be our likely winner.

Dan reached double digits this week and broke his low reminder pattern. That is good news for Dan. It is better news for Mike.

Sierra once again occupies the bottom dweller position having zeroed. Her story is over. She still has a chance of making it to the end but she will not win. She and Tyler still have yet to reach double digits so count him out too.


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 | total
Carolyn MNM 7 0 2 1 3 1 3 | 17
Dan EEM 4 0 1 1 1 1 3 | 11
Hali NNM 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 | 13
Jenn NNM 7 2 4 2 4 1 3 | 23
Joe NEM 3 2 4 0 0 1 1 | 11
Kelly ENM 1 0 1 2 3 1 3 | 11 X
Mike EEM 2 2 3 3 5 2 6 | 23
Rodney EEM 3 2 4 3 1 3 4 | 20
Shirin MNM 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 | 14
Sierra EEM 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 | 8
Tyler MEM 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 | 9
Will NNM 2 4 3 2 1 0 1 | 13
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10

TOTEM POLE

Jenn NNM 23
Mike EEM 23 ^
Rodney EEM 20
Carolyn MNM 17
Shirin MNM 14
Hali NNM 13 ^
Will NNM 13
Dan EEM 11 ^
Joe NEM 11
Tyler MEM 9 ^
Sierra EEM 8

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04-07-15, 01:52 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Week 7"
Last week I thought the confessionals led to an accurate assessment of the boot and boot decoys. Let's see if they can flesh them out this week...

I try to do this by mostly taking into consideration confessional patterns alone... As we well know, sometimes the confessionals indeed point to the boot....

Shirin is solid still. Couple with her being the self proclaimed newest member of the old no collar tribe, she's not threatening at this point and not part of a "power couple". Safe.

Will has emerged from a zero count but in a consistent way; he does not appear to be in danger this week. Safe.

Interesting to note that Carolyn, Hali, and now Jenn have very similar confessional patterns. They dip under the radar, then immediately have a spike in the next ep, and the pattern repeats. They are consistent, so, judging by confessional patterns alone, I would be led to believe that they are all safe this week? It will be interesting to see if they are!

Joe: Also consistant, with neither a spike or a dip, so I would say safe this episode?

Rodney: Rodney is a character and has a lot of confessionals, he's one of the stars this season. I think his pattern appears stable. He's safe this week.

Sierra had a slight story arc when her BFF was voted out and she was in a power position, but now, she's settled back down under the radar. She does not appear to be at risk at this point, but when one flies under the radar with a zero, they are primed to be a "hidden" boot. Slight risk.

Tyler has a spike of 2 confessionals after none the week before, so he could be at slight risk, or the beginning of his story arc has begun. We'll have to watch him. Slight risk.

Mike has his biggest episode to date with a spike from 2 confessionals to 6. While it appears that Mike is coming up with the numbers that kind of spike does put him as one to watch. At risk.

Dan: He has been solidly steady for weeks with one confessional and at the merge he has a spike of 3 confessionals. I would think he would be safe, being on the side of the numbers, but by confessional patterns alone, he's at risk this week also. One also has to note in a season of targeting power couples, he now appears to be Mike's new BFF, since Kelly was booted last week? At risk.

Now, we'll see what happens this episode. Could be quite telling. I have grave doubts that the confessionals will lead us to the boot this week, if they don't, it's got to be a "hidden" boot. Food for thought!


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04-08-15, 12:47 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Week 7"
Owing to Jenn's successful HII play and Kelly's boot, shifting merge dynamics carry over into this next episode. Making interpretations of these stats this week very difficult.

Carolyn 7 0 2 1 3 1 3: Carolyn is a very important player, her pattern indicates that she still needs to achieve equilibrium. Her decisions are paramount at this point.

Dan 4 0 1 1 1 1 3: Dan is breaking out, he has significance.

Hali 2 2 2 1 3 1 2: Very stable, still in a sweet spot.

Jenn 7 2 4 2 4 1 3: Critical mass. Her play gave her side and herself a little bit more breathing room. Things could still turn her way.

Joe 3 2 4 0 0 1 1: Pawn.

Mike 2 2 3 3 5 2 6: Critical mass. If he can gain control this time he is heading for a win. Up in the air.

Rodney 3 2 4 3 1 3 4: Stable wildcard. He cannot win but he does not know that so he will keep trying to jockey for position.

Shirin 2 1 2 1 3 3 2: Difficult to read because her story shifted from freak to redemption. Indicators are that she will achieve redemption.

Sierra 1 0 0 1 4 2 0: Insignificant.

Tyler 3 1 2 0 1 0 2: Insignificant at this point except as paired with Carolyn, a sidekick.

Will 2 4 3 2 1 0 1: Dynamically in a great position for the moment, but ultimately insignificant.

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04-10-15, 12:30 PM (EST)
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35. "Week 8"
Well, they got me this week, I honestly thought Hali was good to ride that sweet wave another episode or two. And she was virtually purple in her own boot episode. Mike takes over the top of the totem pole this week as Jenn's game takes a dramatic drop.

Got to hand it to Mike, though, some interesting moves this week. Convincing everyone that Joe had the HII left him free to go on his own hunt. Risky, though, as it was his own alliance folks who relaxed, Joe knew he didn't have the thing.

Tyler hits double digits, can he get enough traction to get himself into this game? Will zeroed. Tyler and Joe and Shirin are rising, will one of them manage to underdog this thing to the end? Carolyn is still unstable.

Rodney stabilizes, and once again he opened his mouth and his brain spilled out. Dan is making waves, Shanini ought to slap his mouth. (Actually, I hate to point it out, but that was a major missed opportunity on her part.)


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 | total
Carolyn MNM 7 0 2 1 3 1 3 1 | 18
Dan EEM 4 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 | 13
Hali NNM 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 | 14 X
Jenn NNM 7 2 4 2 4 1 3 1 | 24
Joe NEM 3 2 4 0 0 1 1 4 | 15
Mike EEM 2 2 3 3 5 2 6 6 | 29
Rodney EEM 3 2 4 3 1 3 4 3 | 23
Shirin MNM 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 | 17
Sierra EEM 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 1 | 9
Tyler MEM 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 3 | 12
Will NNM 2 4 3 2 1 0 1 0 | 13
Jury
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10
Kelly ENM 1 0 1 2 3 1 3 | 11

TOTEM POLE

Mike EEM 29 ^
Jenn NNM 24
Rodney EEM 23
Carolyn MNM 18
Shirin MNM 17
Joe NEM 15 ^
Dan EEM 13 ^
Will NNM 13
Tyler MEM 12
Sierra EEM 9

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04-10-15, 02:54 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Week 8"
LAST EDITED ON 04-10-15 AT 02:56 PM (EST)

Oh no, Joe got a big uptick in confessionals this week. He could be toast.

ETA: I still think Hali was being edited to return for Survivor 31. Joe possibly too.

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04-10-15, 10:13 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Week 8"
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-15 AT 09:07 AM (EST)

I think it is very safe to say that Jenn and Joe are the most at risk players at this point. Her game fizzled out but he has to win immunity or he goes next. Joe may have some interesting prospects should he survive another week

Will and Sierra are pretty irrelevant right now. Carolyn and Shirin are trying to hang on and get their games on, and with Tyler getting his game running lately perhaps the white collars will be able to shake things up.

Mike and Rodney will continue the drama of which will prevail until one is eliminated, who will it be?

Dan is comic relief, the big old foot-in-mouth male chauvinist pig.
Goat?

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04-11-15, 05:15 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Week 8"
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-15 AT 05:17 PM (EST)

Yes, Joe did get a spike in confessionals and it could precede his boot episode, or it could be a start to a story arc. It could indeed be the start of his last swan song, but maybe not. We can't forget that Joe, the jeweler, is going to make a fake idol next ep. I bet his will be better than Bob's, and I hope that it will be far better than Jason's!

I also felt that Jenn's confessional of despair was also misdirection. So, let's humor ourselves and entertain someone else's demise...

Shirin. She is in full swing of an arc...it could come crashing to a hault next week.

Dan, his current arc is receding... Would love for it to crash and burn. He's also part of a power couple...?

Tyler. His arc is also ripe for a crash?

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04-16-15, 06:31 PM (EST)
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39. "Week 9"
The week of zeroes! Four of them this week and they should all be considered out of the running, Carolyn, Dan, Tyler and Will. One of them could make it to FTC as a goat. Really, this late in the game this many zeroes in one week is a bit surprising, but they have to be regarded as unimportant voices. (Well, Carolyn isn't entirely out of it as she still has a good spot on the totem pole, but her pattern break this week is a very bad sign.)

Sierra got one confessional this week to finally reach double digits, she's on a run of 1's now! (And please tell me all that chocolate wasn't made with California water.) Rodney dropped slightly with only two confessionals this week. Front-runner Mike dropped down to four, but that's good because otherwise the good ol' Christian would have been on number of the beast run (666). Eeek!

Jenn got back into the thick of things this week with four confessionals. Should we count her out? Or consider that she may just have some bizarre new no collar underdog strategy? Let everyone else play the game while she glides disregarded to the end where she will pull off an amazing FTC performance for the win? Probably not, but that would be spectacular.

Joe scored five confessionals on his way to the boot. And Shirin -- Shirin! -- got the high of the week with six! She has the only motion on the totem pole this week, joining the potential winner group. (Of course that is also a big spotlight bump, she is not out of danger.)


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 | total
Carolyn MNM 7 0 2 1 3 1 3 1 0 | 18
Dan EEM 4 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 0 | 13
Jenn NNM 7 2 4 2 4 1 3 1 4 | 28
Joe NEM 3 2 4 0 0 1 1 4 5 | 20 X
Mike EEM 2 2 3 3 5 2 6 6 4 | 33
Rodney EEM 3 2 4 3 1 3 4 3 2 | 25
Shirin MNM 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 | 23
Sierra EEM 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 1 1 | 10
Tyler MEM 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 3 0 | 12
Will NNM 2 4 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 | 13
Jury
Hali NNM 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 | 14
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10
Kelly ENM 1 0 1 2 3 1 3 | 11

TOTEM POLE

Mike EEM 33
Jenn NNM 28
Rodney EEM 25
Shirin MNM 23 ^
Carolyn MNM 18
Dan EEM 13
Will NNM 13
Tyler MEM 12
Sierra EEM 10

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-15, 08:48 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Week 9"
Notice that Rodney's three amigos all got zeros. That doesn,t sound good for that alliance. Mike's allies are also fairly neglected though but that was before he got Shirin on his side.
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04-16-15, 09:57 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Week 9"
Yeah, and since Rodney doesn't appear to be heading for a win that leaves a vacuum, his team is going to fail.
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04-17-15, 10:33 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: Week 9"
I think we're going to see Mike, Sierra and Shirin in the final three.
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04-17-15, 04:11 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Week 9"
I agree. Or maybe Mike, Sierra and Jenn. Imagine if Jenn is in the finals despite WANTING to be out of the game. She doesn't have THAT many friends in the jury--Joe and Hali of course, but who else would vote for her? We know that Shirin isn't really with her anymore.
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04-17-15, 06:01 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: Week 9"
Yes, you guys have nailed it ~ #predictable.

Shirin choosing to flip to Mike, will mean that one of the zeros ~ Carolyn, Dan, Tyler, or Will will go packing. Most likely Dan will be with Mike, so let's exclude him.

I also agree with Corvis. F3: Mike, Sierra, Shirin


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04-17-15, 10:59 PM (EST)
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45. "I third"
I also agree with Corvis. AND FP. And I'm sure many to follow...
(with a slight adjustment) F3: Mike ~ Shirin ~ Sierra
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04-18-15, 01:37 AM (EST)
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46. "RE: I 4th"
And with Shirin getting 2nd place - Hali votes for her.

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-15, 08:10 PM (EST)
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47. "Week 10"
The Mike Show pulls way out ahead of the rest in the counts, while they booted the only remaining player with a grip on sanity.This season has turned mean and rotten, corruption is bad and promising to become worse.

No zeroes this time, and Dan has the only motion on the totem pole by pulling away from being tied with Will. Both pull further away from bottom-dwellers Tyler and Sierra, coming up on Carolyn's heels. (I'm going to have recheck the Shirin count, her 1 does not reflect how much she was central in this episode.)


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 x | total
Carolyn MNM 7 0 2 1 3 1 3 1 0 1 | 19
Dan EEM 4 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 0 4 | 17
Jenn NNM 7 2 4 2 4 1 3 1 4 2 | 30 X
Mike EEM 2 2 3 3 5 2 6 6 4 8 | 41
Rodney EEM 3 2 4 3 1 3 4 3 2 2 | 27
Shirin MNM 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 1 | 24
Sierra EEM 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 1 1 1 | 11
Tyler MEM 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 3 0 1 | 13
Will NNM 2 4 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 | 16
Jury
Hali NNM 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 | 14
Joe NEM 3 2 4 0 0 1 1 4 5 | 20
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10
Kelly ENM 1 0 1 2 3 1 3 | 11

TOTEM POLE

Mike EEM 41
Rodney EEM 27
Shirin MNM 24
Carolyn MNM 19
Dan EEM 17 ^
Will NNM 16
Tyler MEM 13
Sierra EEM 11

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michel2 884 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-15, 09:40 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Week 10"
I think she only had the one confessional. I've only rewatched up to Dan's confessional after reading the advantage and Shirin hasn't said anything yet. Her presence was in the recap, after being attacked by Will where she had one confessional and then at TC.

BTW, did you ever see how Warrior used to count visibility over at Sucks? He used a complicated point system that gave pretty interesting results.

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04-23-15, 09:48 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Week 10"
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-15 AT 03:39 PM (EST)

Regarding Shirin, she's a dead girl walking. We didn't think they would go for Jenn, and look what happened. Is there any reason to think that Shirin will not be booted next? The pagonging is almost complete. #boring. We know it will not be Mike.

But, I am hoping she makes it!



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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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05-01-15, 11:28 AM (EST)
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50. "Week 11"
Hamburger, check. Cheese, check. Bacon, not Survivor bacon that's for sure.

This was the story of Teflon Mike and Pavlov Shirin. In which Tyler became the big threat out of nowhere, and accidentally spilled the beans to Dan about the plan to not boot Mike out before it was time, and raided Dan's bag, got repeatedly named, and yet still remains a virtual nonentity. Because Dan wanted to score sympathy points for having no blood.

Dan scored the big 4 this week, and again has the only motion this week on the totem pole, now tied with Carolyn. Shirin picked up 3 on her way to the Ponderosa. Everyone else deuced except Will, the big fat zero, which was probably for the best.

Dan seems to be on a roll. Big drop for Mike. Rodney seems due for a bump. Carolyn is hanging in there. Sierra and Tyler are emerging, may be worth watching but unless they suddenly burst into some personality their games still seem hopeless.


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 x e | total
Carolyn MNM 7 0 2 1 3 1 3 1 0 1 2 | 21
Dan EEM 4 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 0 4 4 | 21
Mike EEM 2 2 3 3 5 2 6 6 4 8 2 | 43
Rodney EEM 3 2 4 3 1 3 4 3 2 2 2 | 29
Shirin MNM 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 1 3 | 27 X
Sierra EEM 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 1 1 1 2 | 13
Tyler MEM 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 3 0 1 2 | 15
Will NNM 2 4 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 | 16
Jury
Hali NNM 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 | 14
Joe NEM 3 2 4 0 0 1 1 4 5 | 20
Jenn NNM 7 2 4 2 4 1 3 1 4 2 | 30
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10
Kelly ENM 1 0 1 2 3 1 3 | 11

TOTEM POLE

Mike EEM 43
Rodney EEM 29
Carolyn MNM 21
Dan EEM 21 ^
Will NNM 16
Tyler MEM 15
Sierra EEM 13

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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05-08-15, 09:52 AM (EST)
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51. "Week 12"
This week Bagman Tyler totaled 5 on his way to the boot. Benedict Mama C scored a high 5 as well, a significant bump, breaking her tie with Supervote Dan who is running steady 4's. Bumping up slightly with 4 each were Psycho Rod and King Mike -- What are the chances their power struggle will finally produce an interesting result? ... Yeah, that's what I thought. Holding onto the bottom spots with 1 each are Sincerely Will, who is on and off, and Cowgirl Sierra, who is slow but sure.

episode     1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 x e w | total
Carolyn MNM 7 0 2 1 3 1 3 1 0 1 2 5 | 26
Dan EEM 4 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 0 4 4 4 | 25
Mike EEM 2 2 3 3 5 2 6 6 4 8 2 4 | 47
Rodney EEM 3 2 4 3 1 3 4 3 2 2 2 4 | 33
Sierra EEM 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 1 1 1 2 1 | 14
Tyler MEM 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 3 0 1 2 5 | 20 X
Will NNM 2 4 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 | 17
Jury
Hali NNM 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 | 14
Joe NEM 3 2 4 0 0 1 1 4 5 | 20
Jenn NNM 7 2 4 2 4 1 3 1 4 2 | 30
Shirin MNM 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 1 3 | 27
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10
Kelly ENM 1 0 1 2 3 1 3 | 11

TOTEM POLE

Mike EEM 47
Rodney EEM 33
Carolyn MNM 26 ^
Dan EEM 25
Will NNM 17
Sierra EEM 14

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dabo 26895 desperate attention whore postings
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05-18-15, 02:46 PM (EST)
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52. "Week 13"
Well, the penultimate week of the season came and went, and the confessional numbers pretty much tell us the story of the season. Dan racked up 5 confessionals on his way out the door, third behind Mike with 7 and Carolyn with 6. Our winner and runner up. Who will come in second runner-up? Hard to say as Rodney and Sierra and Will each racked up only two confessionals each this time. No motion on the totem pole, though Carolyn is closer to a tie with Rodney.


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 x e w p | total
Carolyn MNM 7 0 2 1 3 1 3 1 0 1 2 5 6 | 32
Mike EEM 2 2 3 3 5 2 6 6 4 8 2 4 7 | 54
Rodney EEM 3 2 4 3 1 3 4 3 2 2 2 4 2 | 34
Sierra EEM 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 | 16
Will NNM 2 4 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 2 | 19
Jury
Hali NNM 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 | 14
Joe NEM 3 2 4 0 0 1 1 4 5 | 20
Jenn NNM 7 2 4 2 4 1 3 1 4 2 | 30
Shirin MNM 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 1 3 | 27
Tyler MEM 3 1 2 0 1 0 2 3 0 1 2 5 | 20
Dan EEM 4 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 0 4 4 4 5 | 30
Eliminated
So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10

TOTEM POLE

Mike EEM 54
Rodney EEM 34
Carolyn MNM 32
Will NNM 19
Sierra EEM 16

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