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"S29 | State Of The Spoiling | The Merge and Beyond..."
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Original message

Flowerpower1 572 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

11-05-14, 12:51 PM (EST)
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"S29 | State Of The Spoiling | The Merge and Beyond..."
Welcome to the State Of The Spoiling!



This is the thread that will contain the Weekly SOTS and Hindsight topics. The SOTS, for those unaware, is a weekly compilation of evidence from various places, presented in a somewhat clearer and solitary topic. These presentations will typically get done on Tuesday evenings but no real life-or-death promises.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Doll... Flowerpower1 11-05-14 1
   RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Doll... tribephyl 11-05-14 2
       RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Doll... Flowerpower1 11-05-14 4
   RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Doll... Sheldor 11-05-14 3
       RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Doll... Flowerpower1 11-06-14 6
           RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Doll... Brownroach 11-06-14 7
               RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Doll... dabo 11-06-14 8
   RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Doll... CTgirl 11-06-14 5
 SOTS | Episode 8 tribephyl 11-12-14 9
   RE: SOTS | Episode 8 suzzee 11-12-14 10
   RE: SOTS | Episode 8 Brownroach 11-12-14 11
       RE: SOTS | Episode 8 tribephyl 11-12-14 12
   RE: SOTS | Episode 8 Sheldor 11-12-14 13
       RE: SOTS | Episode 8 tribephyl 11-12-14 15
           RE: SOTS | Episode 8 Sheldor 11-12-14 21
   RE: SOTS | Episode 8 Flowerpower1 11-12-14 14
       RE: SOTS | Episode 8 tribephyl 11-12-14 16
           RE: SOTS | Episode 8 Sheldor 11-12-14 23
       RE: SOTS | Episode 8 Brownroach 11-12-14 17
           I am totally down with Alec.... Flowerpower1 11-12-14 20
   RE: SOTS | Episode 8 michel2 11-12-14 18
       RE: SOTS | Episode 8 tribephyl 11-12-14 19
           RE: SOTS | Episode 8 michel2 11-12-14 24
   RE: SOTS | Episode 8 CTgirl 11-12-14 22
 SOTS | Episode 9 tribephyl 11-17-14 25
   RE: SOTS | Episode 9 Rembrandt 11-17-14 26
   RE: SOTS | Episode 9 Flowerpower1 11-18-14 27
       RE: SOTS | Episode 9 tribephyl 11-18-14 28
   RE: SOTS | Episode 9 michel2 11-18-14 29
       RE: SOTS | Episode 9 CTgirl 11-18-14 30
           RE: SOTS | Episode 9 tribephyl 11-18-14 31
               RE: SOTS | Episode 9 Brownroach 11-18-14 32
   Hindsight | Episode 9 tribephyl 11-20-14 33
       RE: Hindsight | Episode 9 Sheldor 11-20-14 34
           RE: Hindsight | Episode 9 suzzee 11-20-14 35
       RE: Hindsight | Episode 9 Brownroach 11-20-14 36
           RE: Hindsight | Episode 9 tribephyl 11-20-14 37
               RE: Hindsight | Episode 9 suzzee 11-21-14 42
               RE: Hindsight | Episode 9 Brownroach 11-21-14 44
           RE: Hindsight | Episode 9 PepeLePew13 11-21-14 39
       RE: Hindsight | Episode 9 Flowerpower1 11-21-14 38
       Pick Me! Pick Me! Georganna 11-21-14 40
           RE: Pick Me! Pick Me! kingfish 11-21-14 41
               Goody! Georganna 11-21-14 43
                   RE: Goody! kingfish 11-21-14 45
                       Comin' Clean Georganna 11-22-14 46
                           RE: Comin' Clean tribephyl 11-23-14 47
                               RE: Comin' Clean Georganna 11-23-14 48
 SOTS | Episode 10 tribephyl 11-25-14 49
   RE: SOTS | Episode 10 michel2 11-25-14 50
   RE: SOTS | Episode 10 Brownroach 11-25-14 51
       RE: SOTS | Episode 10 michel2 11-26-14 54
   RE: SOTS | Episode 10 Sheldor 11-26-14 52
       RE: SOTS | Episode 10 michel2 11-26-14 53
   RE: SOTS | Episode 10 suzzee 11-26-14 55
       RE: SOTS | Episode 10 Tungusta 11-26-14 56
 SOTS | Episode 11 tribephyl 12-02-14 57
   Well Done! Flowerpower1 12-02-14 58
   RE: SOTS | Episode 11 CTgirl 12-02-14 59
   RE: SOTS | Episode 11 michel2 12-02-14 60
       RE: SOTS | Episode 11 tribephyl 12-02-14 61
           RE: SOTS | Episode 11 Flowerpower1 12-03-14 62
               RE: SOTS | Episode 11 tribephyl 12-03-14 63
                   RE: SOTS | Episode 11 michel2 12-03-14 68
   RE: SOTS | Episode 11 PepeLePew13 12-03-14 64
       RE: SOTS | Episode 11 Brownroach 12-03-14 66
           RE: SOTS | Episode 11 PepeLePew13 12-03-14 69
               RE: SOTS | Episode 11 Brownroach 12-03-14 70
       RE: SOTS | Episode 11 Sheldor 12-03-14 67
   RE: SOTS | Episode 11 Murphy3126 12-03-14 65
   Hindsight | Episode 11 tribephyl 12-04-14 72
       RE: Hindsight | Episode 11 CTgirl 12-04-14 73
           RE: Hindsight | Episode 11 Murphy3126 12-04-14 74
               RE: Hindsight | Episode 11 tribephyl 12-04-14 75
           RE: Hindsight | Episode 11 Brownroach 12-04-14 76
               RE: Hindsight | Episode 11 Flowerpower1 12-05-14 77
 Possible spoiler Outsider32 12-04-14 71
 Not sure if he's right Outsider32 12-09-14 78
   RE: Not sure if he's right Brownroach 12-09-14 79
 SOTS | Episode 13 tribephyl 12-10-14 80
   RE: SOTS | Episode 13 suzzee 12-10-14 81
   RE: SOTS | Episode 13 Georganna 12-10-14 82
   RE: SOTS | Episode 13 kingfish 12-10-14 83
   RE: SOTS | Episode 13 michel2 12-10-14 84
   RE: SOTS | Episode 13 Tercel 12-10-14 85
       RE: SOTS | Episode 13 Outsider32 12-10-14 88
   WOOOOHOOOOOOO! Flowerpower1 12-10-14 86
       RE: WOOOOHOOOOOOO! tribephyl 12-11-14 89
           RE: WOOOOHOOOOOOO! Flowerpower1 12-11-14 91
           PAIGING....Mr. Tribephyl Flowerpower1 12-15-14 94
       RE: WOOOOHOOOOOOO! PepeLePew13 12-11-14 90
   RE: SOTS | Episode 13 Sheldor 12-10-14 87
 Keith's brother Outsider32 12-14-14 92
   RE: Keith's brother PepeLePew13 12-14-14 93
 FINALE... Flowerpower1 12-17-14 95
   RE: FINALE... Brownroach 12-17-14 96
   RE: FINALE... kingfish 12-17-14 97
   He Said... tribephyl 12-17-14 98
       RE: He Said... CTgirl 12-17-14 99
       FP and Tribe ... Georganna 12-17-14 100
       RE: He Said... Rembrandt 12-17-14 101
       RE: He Said... Flowerpower1 12-17-14 104
   RE: FINALE... Tercel 12-17-14 102
   RE: FINALE... chemig902 12-17-14 103
   RE: FINALE... michel2 12-17-14 105
 RE: S29 | State Of The Spoiling | T... Outsider32 12-17-14 106
   RE: S29 | State Of The Spoiling | T... Georganna 12-18-14 107
 SOTS | PostShow Hindsight tribephyl 12-18-14 108

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Flowerpower1 572 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-14, 04:46 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Dollar Question"

Million Dollar Decision

Welcome to the episode 7, State of the Spoiling, the one stop shop for collecting the consensus across the boards as to the events of the episode. Just a quick reminder that it's a great time for all of us here at Blows to go back and give our guidelines
the once over, they really are the reason we all have such a fun, exciting, and CIVIL board. As in the immortal words of S1, Colleen,

Be nice and play fair!

Last weeks episode is documented in blow by blow fashion here in the East Coast Update thread. The tribes were shuffled to have 3 couples plus Keith, and a starving tribe of 1 couple and the rest singles. The power couple went with the couple best suited for them Missy/Baylor. At the RC, Baylor lost but Missy told us she was in good hands with Natalie at EI, because Missy knows that she “has Natalie, that she is with me”. Forshadowing for the merge perhaps...Missy + Natalie. Next we have Jeremy making snarky comments about the brainiacs in his tribe that traded in the tarp for more rice...then we see them feasting on their shish-ka-bobs...then we see the miserable Julie suffering and threatening to quit with the horrendous rain storm. This means that choosing the food over the tarp was a dumb move because you will lose one of your own because of it...foreshadowing that Julie is toast, imo. Then, Dale made the play with his fake idol, but in the end, Dale went home, while safe votes were thrown at Keith. Dale follows Kelly to loser lodge.

Million Dollar Decision

Our title, Million Dollar Decision, could and most likely is the big question of the episode. Some think that it refers to Julie, who some spec may quit this episode. We see Jiffy at Camp Coyopa, the sun is setting over the west...Here he is noting...”You just lost a member”...

Note that Jiffy is wearing the same outfit...(again!).

Who can tell...Jiffy wears the same outfit every freakin' 3 days!

We know with the promos later in the week that Julie is sneaking something in her bag and the tribe is onto her...more on that later. Another possibility is that we find out that Wes has cut his foot open...here. This leads us to consider that Wes may be a medivac down the road? I don’t know though, if this ends up leading to a medivac I would suspect that they would have not cut this from the show footage...?

Misdirection Clues, Tweets, and
Press

1.The pressure of the game forces one castaway to consider throwing in the towel Clearly this is Julie. Last week she told us that “I can’t handle another night like that!”

2. One move will really annoy most of our audience and most of the players

Funny thing is, this also sounds like Julie. Clearly she is hoarding or sneaking something from the rest of the tribe, and they think it’s the most selfish move one could make in Survivor...it will make them MAD!

*I also want to plant a seed that it could be Keith. Keith was heard saying in the preseason promo after episode one saying he had done the worst thing in Survivor history...could Keith have planted something in Julie's bag? It crossed my mind! Also, we have this suspicious vidcap of Keith right smack in the middle of a promo...

Squeezed in between the words "SCANDAL" and "What's in the bag?"....hmmmmm? Ole Keith!

3. alliances start to crumble with the impending merge

This is a fun one. Let’s look at the alliances so far.

Jon/Jack + Missy/Baylor + Keith.

I lump Keith with them...he does not seem too concerned about getting votes thrown his way. I believe he indeed trusts Missy, but, blood is blood, will he dictate that Wes go with him, or will he defer to Wes and go with Wes/Josh/Reed, or will they each vote with their own friends? HMMMMM?

Jeremy/Natalie + Julie

Wes/Alec + Josh/Reed

We hear Josh counting his chickens before they are hatched in the promo...Josh plus Reed, plus Wes and Alec, plus Keith most likely, that’s 5. But, the tease tells us that alliances will start to crumble. While the first ep post swap showed us that Jacklyn didn’t know which couple to go with, Baylor, whom she didn’t trust, or Dale, who had never done anything to her, clearly it was Jon that tilted them to stay with Missy and Baylor. The alliance not seen is really Missy + Jon. Kelly told us in post show interviews that they are very close, like mother and son. We can also see that Missy and Keith are very close. Missy does seem to be the glue that is holding them altogether. We also know that Missy thinks “Natalie is with me”. That is a big foreshadowing clue. Michel agrees.

I think Missy will be the key. Also, remember that we have another clue confessional from Baylor...

Baylor: <camera confessional>: Thank you so much for helping me. Now I have to vote you out.

I do think this confessional is regarding her relationship with Josh...She latched onto Josh from the beginning, but after he wrote her name down at 2 different TC’s, she admitted that she thought he was sketchy...I think she will defer to her mother, Missy, and have to end up voting against Josh. This is a big clue....a clue if Julie quits, and they do go to TC, most likely the votes could go to Josh...so, Josh most likely will not win the IC...it all hinges on if you believe this confessional is before or after the IC. I am leaning on it being after the IC...fwiw.
So, with the merge they could have new alliances that could end up like this:
Missy/Baylor, Jon/Jacklyn, *Keith/(Wes - he has options)*, Jeremy/Natalie, + Julie
Vs.
Josh/Reed, Alec, Wes/Keith

*Keith and Wes are the question. WE see Keith talking to most likely Josh...

I think this is indeed Keith talking to Josh(but, maybe not, someone also suggested it could be Missy, but her hair is longer and not layered?). Most likely post IC drama, when Josh makes his plea with Wes to vote with them against Jeremy. Keith is repeating Josh's words here...I think this could be misdirection, in that Keith could be saying this, but still planning on voting with Missy and company, OR, he could be with Wes, Josh/Reed, Alex. If he is, them planting something in Julie's bag could be genius to try and get her as the boot target. If she doesn't quit, I think Josh will be going, if she does...then they may defer TC?

4. one castaway commits the ultimate sin
Again, I think this is also referring to the person that does something that really annoys the audience and the tribes...most likely Julie stealing/hoarding food...

Here is the verbiage of the first promo:

Jeff Probst:  Next time on Survivor...
Baylor:  The Merge!!!
Probst:  ...blood and water finally merge...
Natalie <camera confessional>:  Everybody knows now, it's game on.
Probst:  ...and nobody is safe.
Baylor: <camera confessional>:  Thank you so much for helping me.  Now I have to vote you out.
Keith <talking in the shelter>:  He's gonna be coming after every one of us.
Jeremy <camera confessional>:  If you take him out, it's over.
Josh <camera confessional>:  I will go out swinging and fighting.
This promo depicts a rivalry and possible square off between Jeremy (singles), vs Josh (couples)

Later the promo’s subject matter shifts:

Announcer:  What's...
<Julie putting something in her bag>
Jon <camera confessional>:  If I can't trust somebody in my alliance, it's ridiculous!
Announcer:  ...in...
Jaclyn:  If you take something and hide it, it makes people mad.
Announcer:  ...the bag?
...instead of Jeremy vs. Josh, now it’s about Julie stealing or hoarding something...Jon is noting that she is in his alliance and he can’t trust her, and Jacklyn notes that people know what she did and they are mad! This must be referring to the annoying move that really gets the audience and the players mad, but could it also possibly be the ultimate sin? Or, will Keith commit that later?

Then, the next promo expands on the smuggled something in the bag...

Announcer:  A tribe merge celebration leads to a Survivor Scandal and it's all because of...
Announcer:  What's...
<Julie putting something in her bag>
Jon <camera confessional>:  If I can't trust somebody in my alliance, it's ridiculous!
Announcer:  ...in...
Jaclyn:  If you take something and hide it, it makes people mad.
Announcer:  ...the bag
Jon:  Where's Julie? <snoops in Julie's bag>  Ohhhh, you gotta be kidding me!

...we see Jon going in to have a look. We see that Natalie, Jacklyn, and Josh are all there lying around the shelter...

Whatever it is that is in that bag they are finding out one way or the other. I do think that Jon finds something and let’s them all know, and here is Josh’s reaction to what Jon found...Jon says this after finding it...Ohhhh, you gotta be kidding me!

Later Jon has a conf about it: If I can't trust somebody in my alliance, it's ridiculous!

Reward Duel

Most likely the Reward Duel will be waived for the Merge feast. Here is my spec on the timeline:

The tribes will wake up early par usual and find treemail...

Natalie reads: “Gather your valued belongings and follow this map to the headland trail. Continue to the top of the hill where you will receive further instructions.”

Both tribes gather their stuff and hike to the top of the hill dividing the two camps...thanks Tribe for this pic.

Note that Josh, Alec, and Wes (his foot), are all seen reacting to the merge news, they had been resting together - watch who people sleep next to!

While gathering their belongings, and packing up, we get this critical vidcap...

and then this confessional from Josh, “We got our treemail that basically said we were merged. It was a mixed emotion feeling at that point, because we needed to get rid of Jeremy, and we didn't do it when we had the chance, because we've not gone to tribal with this full tribe. So, now it makes it a little more precarious to get Jeremy out, but we can do this.”

Then Josh and Reed go off to count their chickens, “Alec and Wes are with us, and Keith would totally come over...”
This is countered by Jeremy’s confessional:

“At Hunahpu Reed and Josh were in charge, and they ran it, and I took a backseat. That's alright, you know. You guys have your fun.” See Josh/Reed kissing, then he continues: “But it's merge time, now it's time to go, and I want to crush them.”

Stage is set, it’s Josh vs Jeremy. Cut to the tribes arriving at the merge feast:
Julie really seems to be the odd women out...look how she’s on the perimeter or isolated within the group...






They go to Camp Coyopa, they manage the merge drama. I think the Julie hoarding/stashing something in her bag drama occurs prior to the IC. Whatever they suspect she is doing, Jon does go look in her bag to see what’s there, and clearly he finds something. He tells the others there, and it’s a mortal Survivor sin...the most selfish thing, that makes them all mad!
Then, cut to the IC...

Immunity Challenge

The immunity challenge vidcaps are all
located in our Vidcap Thread,
here, and the name of the challenge is “Take the Reigns”. We can see the challenge, here.

The challenge is set in stages...first stage is closest to the base, shortest reigns, and it’s endurance as well. WE see that the ones that make it to the last stage are:



Jacklyn, Jon, Keith, Natalie, Wes, Josh. Tribe notes that it goes from sunny to cloudy over time. The ones with cloud cover could be toward the end of the challenge...but, we really have no way of knowing. However, the cloudy ones still left include: Keith, Natalie, Wes, and Josh, but Natalie looks like she is just about out, leaving our winner as either Keith, Wes, and Josh.

The timeline continues..after the IC, we get drama back at camp...Julie knows she is in trouble...we hear her comment on it, she’s not in the best place. Here is Jiffy...wearing the exact outfit as he wore at the IC, and he’s at Coyopa saying, “you just lost a member”.

So, the million dollar question for us is...will she quit? I am leaning toward no...we know that Jiffy wears that outfit every 3 days. We know that Josh is going for Jeremy and vice versa. But, the worst thing ever that makes them all mad is going to be an easy choice to boot this week. I think she will make it to TC, and be voted out. This is saving the removal of someone for later in the season....will it be Wes? Will his sting or wound get infected???

Results

RC: No one, Merge Feast instead
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE WINNER: Wes, Keith, or could be Josh
BOOT: Julie, one way or the other, by quit or boot, she’s toast!
]

But, if she quits and they continue on to TC, then I think it will be one of these two, most likely Josh...

*See the Media thread, located here,


Dabo’s Confessionals Thread.

michel’s the Characters and their Stories.

Last, but not least, go and
VOTE!


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tribephyl 11154 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-14, 07:15 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Dollar Question"
Thank you, FP!!!

I know that the current finale date has us speculating that we will encounter a double boot at some point and I think it may indeed be this week. I doubt that Wes is med-Evac'd as I wholeheartedly believe production would have inserted it into the storyline so we aren't surprised at an infected cut taking Wes out.
To that end, I'm thinking the shot of the helicopter is part of a reward, not a med-evac.

I also harken back to JP's assessment that for every Jeremy/Josh there is a Drew/Keith around to screw everything up for them.
My guess is this is Keith's week to screw up Josh's plans.

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Flowerpower1 572 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-14, 09:00 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Dollar Question"
Yes, I wouldn't be surprised either way, Tribe. My gut was that she wouldn't quit, but it wouldn't surprise me to see her quit either!

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11-05-14, 08:21 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Dollar Question"
Great SOTS FP! SO much to think about this week!

Note: Josh only voted for Baylor once (Ep1) not twice)

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Flowerpower1 572 desperate attention whore postings
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11-06-14, 08:09 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Dollar Question"
Thanks, but didn't she get votes thrown at her in the first two TC's....?
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11-06-14, 12:09 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Dollar Question"
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-14 AT 12:17 PM (EST)

She did: four on the first vote, two of which came from Rocker and Val. On the revote Jaclyn voted for Baylor, and we can assume she also did the first time. We don't know who cast the preliminary fourth vote for Baylor. It could have been Josh, or not.

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11-06-14, 12:54 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Dollar Question"
At the first TC Josh alone voted for Baylor, it was a rogue vote that he later sold her a yarn about.

At the second TC Baylor received votes from Alec (per Wiki), Jaclyn, John and Val. On the revote she received one vote from Jaclyn.

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11-06-14, 00:06 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: S29 | SOTS | Ep 7, Million Dollar Question"
Great SOTS FloPo! It takes so much work to do these - thanks!
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11-12-14, 02:38 PM (EST)
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9. "SOTS | Episode 8"
Before I begin let me first ask for a rousing round of applause for Flowerpower.
Her efforts for the last 2 weeks have not only been concise, inclusive and thourough, she was also dead on with her synopses.
Chalk up 2 points for her and a big fat zero for me.
So as I head into this weeks State of the Spoiling, let me warn you all, again, I suck at this and my track record kind of proves it.
Alas, I love doing it anyways, so on with the SOTS...

Title: Wrinkle In The Plan

This actually was noted earlier by Missy during episode 7. As a result of Julie being forced into quitting by a love-loss of her BF and a swift a conclusive synopsis from JP, Jeremy's Alliance will have their plans wrinkled. The JP lecture was all about it and I can bet that the wrinkled plan will not get ironed out.
JPTease:
Julie's quit really throws a wrench into things. There are so many levels of game play — it is imperative that you see everything. If your vision becomes too focused you're done. The best players will prove themselves through their ability to play this game not based on history, but on what is in front of them in any given moment.

And what WAS the clash of Josh VS Jeremy, will take a back seat to what is currently in front of them. *wrinkle*
Battle of the Sexes...

Misdirection:
1. The claws are out when two parents protect their children in a heated exchange.
2. Also, the castaways reap the rewards of a Taco Bar after exiling one of their own

Since the reward challenge will be first, we'll begin with that. And get to the parental-conference misdirection in a moment.


Reward Challenge:
First off, it's apparent that the Hero Challenge no longer exists and is being replaced by a team Reward Challenge.
My guess is that Exile Island will be changed as well to accomodate only 1 exilee per cycle.

It appears the reward challenge may begin as a "Schoolyard Pick'em" styled team distribution. With this image of Baylor and Reed, I believe we'll see the last two choices ...

Team Yellow gets Reed, Keith, Wes, Natalie and Jeremy
Team Teal (aka The Color of Losers) gets Baylor, Jon, Jaclyn, Josh, Alec
This also means that Missy sits-out the challenge.


The challenge itself will involve moving heavy puzzle pieces from a pile on the beach to a puzzle solving area via a doubled railed pushing platform.

On paper this game belongs to Team Yellow. Their brute strength will allow them to get a remarkable lead ahead of Team Teal before the puzzle stage and truly their smarts will also help keep them ahead.
And before they receive their Taco Bar Reward, they will have to exile someone from the losing tribe first.

Exile Island:
The entrance to the Immunity challenge is where we will begin our look for our exilee. And it was said best by our own Flowerpower: "*Long story short = You NAILED it, Sheldor! :-D But, the tease says, they exile ONE of their own. The only room for another in the approaching line up, imo, would be behind Reed...Could Jon be the only one exiled....if Alec is behind Reed in the line up, Jon would be the most out of place. You can clearly see in the line up pic arriving that he is NOT behind Jacklyn, but Alec could possibly be present hidden behind Reed?"
Baylor, Natalie, Missy, Keith, Wes, Josh, Jeremy, Jaclyn, Reed (and probably Alec)


Following the order of their stance at the immunity challenge mat. With Jon filling in the space between Reed and Jaclyn.

Jon spends 2 days away, allowing for the guys to really get under the ladies skins.
Alec calls out Baylor and Missy tells Baylor to suck it up.
Keith calls out Baylor and Missy and him have a vocal pissing-fight.
Do they bury the hatchet? In each other's backs? Could be. *wrinkle*
But first, the immunity challenge.

Immunity Challenge:

As Estee coined many many seasons ago for BigBrother, "the Booths-Of-Doom" show up in Nicaragua and the survivors are tasked with remembering a series of symbols and recalling them in order from their own personal hexagons.

Call it a hunch but I believe one of Jaclyn, Missy or Keith wins this Immunity.
And to give some extra weight to Jaclyn's pleas to Jon, I'm gonna give it to her.


Tribal Council:
Past JP notation about Jon/Jaclyn: "They're young and loving, bBut what's interesting is watching their relationship play out. They're a couple and they love each other, but this game is hard. And, give people enough time together on Survivor, they will argue, no matter how much you love each other. There's an honesty to watching their relationship that I don't recall us ever doing before."
From the time allowed for Jaclyn to get to Jon about her change of heart regarding their change of strategy for the LAST TC, which they never got to, another wrinkle in the plan is formed.


Jaclyn: Jon just doesn't care.
Jon: Jaclyn is not on the same page as I am.
Jaclyn: Somebody is not going to be happy.

If things stayed status quo...
Team Josh: Josh/Reed/Alec/Wes/Keith with Jon/Jaclyn
Versus Team Jeremy: Jeremy/Natalie/Missy/Baylor
But Jaclyn no longer wants to support the lengthening of Alec's game. However, her crossing sides alone will not change any TC voting outcome, so it is imperative she get herself and Jon to act together to make the move.
Can she get him to side with her?

As stated, oh so elloquently, by millions of happy husbands across the world, "A Happy Wife means a Happy Life."
If he knows what's good for him, Jon WILL side with Jaclyn. Even if it means his "game" may falter because of it.
And considering the two of them are currently planning on validating their relationship with proposed nuptials, I dare say Jon is indeed allowing Jaclyn her desires.


SOTS Bullet list

*Reward Challenge: Team Yellow (Jeremy ~ Keith ~ Natalie ~ Wes ~ Reed)

*Exile: Jon

*Immunity Challenge: Jaclyn

*Tribal Council: Wes/Keith/Alec/Reed/Josh vote for Jeremy (because they aren't adjusting their strategies and remain focused on Jeremy)
Jon/Jaclyn/Baylor/Missy/Natalie/Jeremy vote for Alec.

*Bootee: Alec



* I apologize for the lateness. It was my original intention to dedicate this SOTS to the theme of A Wrinkle In Time.
It got too late to do any real cross-referencing and creating, so... Quotes it is!
“Life, with its rules, its obligations, and its freedoms, is like a sonnet: You're given the form, but you have to write the sonnet yourself.” - Mrs. Whatsit
“Only a fool is not afraid.” - IT
“Don't try to comprehend with your mind. Your minds are very limited. Use your intuition.” - Madeleine L'Engle
“Thinking I'm a moron gives people something to feel smug about, why should I disillusion them?” - Charles Wallace
"Lie on your back, bare your belly, and make the twerps think they are dominant. They'll love you." - Dean Koontz

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11-12-14, 05:04 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Nice job Tribe! Yeah, I think Jon will let Jaclyn have this one. She should enjoy the "win" on this one, I don't think it will happen again. And I vote Alec off as well, he should be proud to be just as douche-y as his brother. Way to go Alec.


I should be watched....closely.

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11-12-14, 05:23 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Nice SOTS, Tribe. Hmm, I may have to change my vote. I could see Jon and Jaclyn being able to put this vote on whomever they want, since Jeremy needs them. So if Jaclyn pushes for Alec, Jeremy would do well to (grudgingly) oblige.

I still think it's better to get rid of Josh first, but booting Alec would put Josh/Reed at a huge disadvantage for next time.

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11-12-14, 05:34 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Josh was going to be my alternate until I saw the title for next week. I think both Jeremy and Josh will skate through this episode, just so they BOTH can get down to "Crunch Time" next ep.
Where one, or the other, will ultimately see their hopes "crunched".
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11-12-14, 05:35 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Great SOTS tribephyl!

Comments...

"It appears the reward challenge may begin as a "Schoolyard Pick'em" styled team distribution. With this image of Baylor and Reed, I believe we'll see the last two choices ..."

I kind of doubt Reed would be chosen last after Natalie (unless Natalie is the captain). Maybe Baylor and Reed are the captains. Also interesting that it was Baylor vs Reed at the last Reward Duel.

The wording of this tease is interesting:

"Also, the castaways reap the rewards of a Taco Bar after exiling one of their own"

This sounds like the Reward Winning Team gets to eat Tacos AFTER they exile one of their own.

Everyone from Team Yellow: Reed, Keith, Wes, Natalie and Jeremy is seen walking into the IC so NONE of them were sent to Exile Island.

Sit out (often sent to Exile Island in the past) Missy is seen walking into the IC as is Baylor, Josh, and Jaclyn.

Only Alec and Jon are not seen walking into the IC though either could be occluded or off screen.

So maybe Team Teal actually WON the Reward Challenge (solve the puzzle faster with Josh's help?) and they had to "exile one of their own" and sent either Jon or Alec (most likely Jon) to Exile Island (neither Jon nor Alec has been there). Seems more likely Jon so that Jaclyn gets upset with the chauvinistic behavior while Jon is away at Exile Island.


"Call it a hunch but I believe one of Jaclyn, Missy or Keith wins this Immunity."

Well Missy has a different symbol than Jaclyn and Keith so either Missy is out or Jaclyn & Keith is out on this symbol.

Promos/Previews seem to be screaming Alec like they were for Drew. Jeremy would want Josh out first but Jeremy also sided with Natalie, Missy, Kelley, and Julie to vote out Drew so maybe he sides with Missy/Baylor, Natalie, and Jaclyn to vote out Alec to appease the women.

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11-12-14, 05:59 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Well Missy has a different symbol than Jaclyn and Keith so either Missy is out or Jaclyn & Keith is out on this symbol.
They actually ARE the same symbol.
Missy's looks different only because her symbols are done in a dark paint, whereas Keith and Jaclyn's are done in white paint. Regardless, this cap alone doesn't show anything other than either all three of them are wrong or all three of them are right.
My choice solely came because there is a cap of Alec, Jon, Reed with no block visible, hints that they don't win. Whereas the cap of Keith, Jaclyn, Missy hints that one of them might.
I could see Missy winning, but that would put Keith in trouble. I could see Keith wining but that would put Missy in trouble.
I do know it's not Jeremy winning.
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11-12-14, 08:34 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
tribephyl thanks for the correction. I see it now!
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11-12-14, 05:36 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Tribe! I LVOE it! You are the master at these things, and don't you forget it! You got it all down. Thanks for using my bullseye... Just want you to know that I purchased a photoshop this week! Finally broke down, so look out! No more improvising for me!

I am really torn here. I don't see Jeremy losing focus from getting out Josh. So, the only way I see Alec as the boot is if Josh wins the IC, and let's face it, he's bright so he could...if Josh doesn't win the IC, I think he's toast...I dunno! I do know that I <3 you! xoxo Thanks for ALL that you do around here!


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11-12-14, 06:09 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
I don't see Jeremy losing focus from getting out Josh.

Just like he didn't lose focus when he wanted Keith out? And voted with the women, who wanted to boot Drew instead?

We know Missy targets those whom target her daughter. Alec and Baylor are NOT getting along. Alec's demeanor will not sit well with the ladies in general and Jaclyn won't want to reward him by sticking with voting out Jeremy. Jeremy will want to stick with Josh but I know that he knows that it's better to stick with the majority.

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11-12-14, 08:42 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
"Alec and Baylor are NOT getting along."

Alec and Baylor have a strange relationship

They seem to have fun together...


But Alec seems to have a chip on his shoulder due to how Drew treated him and so he enjoys bossing around Baylor as if she was his younger sister...

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11-12-14, 06:11 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Actually that's an interesting point too, FloPo. Jeremy really does want Josh out, but if Josh wins the IC, would he automatically flip the vote to Reed? Maybe not, if he regards Reed as less of a threat and his troops are marshaling around the annoyance factor attached to Alec.
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11-12-14, 07:47 PM (EST)
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20. "I am totally down with Alec...."
No doubt it WILL be Alec IF Josh doesn't win immunity. You are right about Missy, Tribe, but from the promos it's more Keith that is crossing the line with Missy, I think. And, she will rear her parental dander up, no doubts.

I don't know....this is a challenge that Josh could win, and if he does, I am SOLD on Alec....

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11-12-14, 06:32 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
What do you mean when you say you suck at these? Your SOTS are always great. This is the "State of the Spoiling" so you quite nicely gave us a rundown of the spoiling done this week. It's not your fault that WE are not sure of what happens.
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11-12-14, 06:57 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Personal goals unachieved and a bit of inherent DAWness leaking out, I suppose.
Validation being achieved when I perhaps get one of these weeks correct.
It's comforting to know that others are having trouble deciding as well.
I started this week thinking, it's gotta be Josh. The wrinkle is ironed out and the normal targets rear their ugly-mugs again.
Then came the Jon/Jaclyn thing, the Battle of the sexes thing and the parents fight over their offspring thing which led me down another path.
So I just kinda switched to Alec.
Lot's of reasons why, but still a difference in my previous thoughts always breeds a bit of trepidation and unease with posting something that has been wrong so many times before.
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11-12-14, 08:43 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
I understand, you're at Playboy Centerfold level afterall!


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11-12-14, 08:36 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: SOTS | Episode 8"
Well you know what they say, "practice makes perfect!"

I have been going Josh, no Reed, no Alec, no Josh, no Alec all week... Thanks for the summary! I kind of hope it's anyone but Alec and that CBS is not just serving up the boot every week!

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11-17-14, 11:10 PM (EST)
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25. "SOTS | Episode 9"

a.k.a. How I learned to embrace my flailing inner-booby and take hold of my destiny.
a.a.k.a. I'm always wrong, should this week be any different?

Title: "Getting to Crunch Time"
Sounds a bit like Jeremy is feeling the pinch of the numbers game.
That Reed is beyond desperate enough to do everything he can to stay in it.
and...
It also sounds like a possibly regretful decision "needs" to be made.

JPTease:
Next week features a brand new challenge – something we’ve never done before that I think people will get a kick out of it. There’s a clue in that answer… and Reed is definitely gonna do whatever it takes to stay in this game

Misdirection:
1. Two reward winners trade their spots to prove their loyalty.
2. An idol paper trail causes chaos at camp
3. One castaway plays dirty when his life in the game is threatened

Reward Challenge:
Split into 2 teams of 5.
Team Yellow: Alec ~ Baylor ~ Jeremy ~ Natalie ~ Reed
Team Teal: Jaclyn ~ Jon ~ Keith ~ Missy ~ Wes
1 member from each team will face of against each other while balancing over a mud pit on a hanging plank.
Using their own weight and balance to move the plank in order to get their opponent to lose their balance and fall off into the mud.
Whats interesting about the challenge is it looks like it might be a best out of 3 for each face-off. As multiple castaways are seen with increing amounts of mud on them. As well, I believe previous face-offs will have to repeat their rounds. With 5 people, I'm thinking first team to 5 wins reward.
We also know that as a result of the win, 2 members will forego their reward to show loyalty.

Round 1: Reed Vs. Wes (wes point?) Y-0/T-1
Round 2: Natalie Vs. Jaclyn (natalie point) Y-1/T-1
Round 3: Jeremy Vs. Jon (jeremy win?) Y-2/T-1
Round 4: Baylor Vs. Missy (baylor point!) Y-3/T-1
Round 5: Alec Vs. Keith (keith win?) Y-3/T-2


From the picture immediately above, you can see Missy and Baylor facing-off (while Keith is muddy and Jaclyn is more muddy than she is just a bit earlier.) in a second round. But I'm guessing that Reed/Wes, Jaclyn/Natalie and Jeremy/Jon went a second time as well.
Round 6: Reed Vs. Wes (wes point?) Y-3/T-3
Round 7: Natalie Vs. Jaclyn (natalie point) Y-4/T-3
Round 8: Jeremy Vs. Jon (jon win?) Y-4/T-4
Round 7: Baylor Vs. Missy (baylor wins) Y-5/T-4

Yellow wins and from these caps...

Natalie, post-challenge (not wearing yellow band), is giving her reward away.
What's interesting is the shot of Jaclyn (possibly post-challenge) seemingly giving an "awww thats so nice of you" look.

Considering there are two winners that give up their rewards, I'm guessing the other one is Baylor and she gives hers to her mom, Missy. Or Natalie could give it to Missy and Baylor could give it to Jaclyn, both would be attempts at showing loyalty. That, and I really can't think of a reason for Natalie to pick Jaclyn.

Enjoying the reward... Jeremy, Alec, Reed, Missy and Jaclyn. Giving time for Reed to wriggle in with Missy/Jaclyn.

At camp... Keith, Wes, Baylor and Natalie. Allowing time for Natalie to discuss strategy to Keith and Wes.

Exile Island:
As a product of Yellow's win, they also get to pick an exilee. With Missy and Jaclyn kinda out of the running, Jeremy/Natalie/Baylor/Reed and Alec would have to choose between Keith, Wes or Jon.
I would then take out Keith and Wes as they are seen at camp with Natalie...


Notice Natalie's and Wes's hair. It looks like their hair is still drying out. I'm guessing that after the reward challenge they take a dip and clean off all the mud. So if Natalie is in camp after the reward challenge and Wes and Keith are with her... that leaves Jon as our exilee once again.


Immunity Challenge:
This challenge will have the castaways using their feet only.

First they must undo a looped rope that will lower some puzzle pieces down into a basket.
Then they have to transfer the pieces from the basket to their lazy-susan solving table.
Where they assemble their puzzles.

Keith/Jeremy/Wes/Alec/Reed/Jaclyn/Missy
If ever a challenge was made for Reed... he's in need and he's got some amazingly adept dancer's feet.
Alec, Reed and Missy appear to have more puzzle pieces in place. Jaclyn's basket still has many pieces visible inside.
Add to this the tease from JP that "Reed is definitely gonna do whatever it takes to stay in this game". Sounds to me like Reed wins and then proceeds to figuratively burn the camp down.

Tribal Council:
Simple answer, created a day after last episode...
Missy/Baylor, Natalie/Jeremy, Jon/Jaclyn get to choose between Keith, Wes, Alec or Reed for bootation.
Because of Reed's exposure of Keith's HI, it will become necessary to either split the vote OR vote for someone who doesn't have an idol. For instance, Reed.

Then came the slew of new promos that inevitably led me down a few different paths.
To the point were I am so confused, I'm ready to throw in the towel.
But then I'm reminded that somehow this SOTS is not necessarily meant to be the truth but what the perception of truth might be.
And really there are many perceptions and many more questions that need to be answered...
Can Reed buy himself 3 more days?
If Keith gets wind of the new HI knowledge can he successfully bounce someone else out?
Is Natalie truly Jeremy's only ally?
Why is Jon so worried about being perceived as a liar?
Does Missy rock the boat and lose someone?
Where did Alec disappear to?

To help sort some of it out, I went back and copied all of the sound-bites available from the contestants for this episode.
Reed (camera confessional): I will light this camp on fire on my way out.
Reed (camera confessional): Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Jon (camera confessional): I need to change the course of the game.
Jon (camera confessional): People are gonna think I was lying this whole time.

Missy (camera confessional): We rock the boat too hard, one of us is gonna fall out.

Jeremy (camera confessional): I wanna make a move they don't expect.
Jeremy (talking to Natalie): You're the only one I trust. I don't trust nobody else.

Keith (camera confessional): I've had it with Jon. I've had it with Missy.

Reed (talking to Missy and Jaclyn): Keith's bag had the clue to the Hidden Immunity Idol in it.
Jaclyn (talking to Jon): Keith has an idol.
Jon: What?
Baylor: You know Keith has an idol?
Reed: Yeah.
Baylor (camera confessional): It's about to get crazy.

Wes (talking to Natalie): I just don't wanna get #blindsided.

And of course, the Voice Over claims quite obviously that we are about to witness the Biggest. Blindside. Yet.

So I'm gonna inhabit this from a deductive perspective and offer up some alternatives.

* The Bootee isn't Reed. It's too obvious and it's clear he's capable of staying in the game. Even JP thinks so.
* It won't be Keith or Wes either. Really, we see Wes claim to not want to be blindsided and he's blindsided? Perhaps. But I doubt it. Because other than this proclamtion it wouldn't be a surprise if Wes was booted. Certainly not the biggest blindside yet. Keith and the revelation of his idol will get back to him. If the majority alliance is proposing a splitting of the vote 3 and 3 then they HAVE to be aware that the remaining 4 would nullify their votes. They CANNOT split their votes. So they kinda have to go all in on Keith and pray he doesn't use his idol Or all in on someone else who they know doesn't have an idol.
* It shouldn't be Alec because that would not be a blindside, from any angle AND he is virtually invisible from all vidcaps and action.

So the blindside HAS to happen to someone from the majority alliance.

IMO, one of Natalie/Jeremy, Jon/Jaclyn or Missy/Baylor are in danger of being split up this episode.

Keith is focusing on Missy and Jon and has vowed to not work with them anymore.
Jeremy is stating that only Natalie is deserving of his trust AND that he wants to make a move that "they" won't expect.
Meanwhile, Jon is worried about being called a liar and Missy is afraid of rocking the boat.

It sounds to me like Jon and Missy are considering dumping Jeremy.
Jon was close to that point last week (and the week before) but was prevented from doing so because of Julie's quit and then Jeremy winning the immunity.
But Jeremy without an immunity necklace might just be too much to ask for.

Then we have Jeremy stating that he is gonna do something they wouldn't expect (like aligning with Keith) And Natalie discussing strategy with Keith and Wes.
Speculatively I'm thinking that Missy/Baylor and Jon/Jaclyn will think they have Reed and will believe they can keep Jeremy in the dark about their targeting him. They are hoping for a 5 against 2 against 3.

However, I believe it will end up being Keith/Wes/Alec with Natalie/Jeremy and Reed against one of Jon/Jaclyn or Baylor/Missy.

Honestly, I'm leaning towards a Jon/Jaclyn bootation solely because of the voice over claiming Biggest Blindside Yet.
Missy would be a big blindside, but with all the energy that both Jeremy and Natalie have put into keeping Missy close, I doubt they would target her. And Baylor has received votes but I don't think anyone truly believes she's a threat.
On the other hand...
Jon/Jaclyn have been ultra-highlighted as the power couple for many many cycles now. Somehow the two of them fall into the swing vote role by no fault or doing of their own. So, even though they aren't real game players they have indeed been making the decisions.
Well, I think some folks are ready to dump the power.

Whether that be Jeremy (who doesn't really have any power) or Jon (who has been given power by others) or even Jaclyn (who's only power is her hold over Jon), one of these three is my main suspect for "biggest blindside yet".


SOTS Bullet list

*Reward Challenge: Team Yellow wins (Jeremy ~ Baylor ~ Natalie ~ Alec ~ Reed)
However, Jaclyn and Missy enjoy the reward given to them from Natalie and Baylor.

*Exile: Jon

*Immunity Challenge: Reed

*Tribal Council: 8 Vs 2 | Jon Vs Jeremy

*Bootee: Jon

(It must be noted that the original name in the bootee spot was Reed. I somehow got talked out of my first impressions yet again.)


* YMMV
* If nothing else you can take it to the bank that I am NOT correct a majority of the time.
* Actually every time.

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11-17-14, 11:50 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: SOTS | Episode 9"
I could actually seeing it being Jon. Jeremy would be too obvious of a boot for the promo.

Next episode is called "This is where we build trust." Makes me believe Jeremy/Natalie team up with the 4 guys and they build trust the next episode.

Keith saying what he said about Jon and Missy and Jeremy saying he want to make a move they won't expect could be a hint.

Also Jeremy telling Nat that she's the only 1 he trust and Nat talking to Keith and Wes could be a start of a new alliance.

If Jeremy goes then who have to build trust next episode?

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11-18-14, 10:28 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: SOTS | Episode 9"
LAST EDITED ON 11-19-14 AT 08:27 AM (EST)


To help sort some of it out, I went back and copied all of the sound-bites available from the contestants for this episode. Great idea, Tribe!
Reed: I might have to stir up a little bit of chaos.
Reed (camera confessional): Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Reed (camera confessional): I will light this camp on fire on my way out.
Reed (talking to Missy and Jaclyn): Keith's bag had the clue to the Hidden Immunity Idol in it.

Reed sets out to cause chaos at camp, getting revenge for the Josh boot, and avoiding the target for himself...he digs in the bag and he immediately goes to tell Jeremy and company to put the target on someone else's back, not his....

We know that Jaclyn tells Jon that Keith has an idol. So it confirms that Jeremy doesn't have one. Then, Jeremy does not win the IC, and we know that Jon has Jeremy on his radar big time.

Jon (camera confessional): I need to change the course of the game.
But, then we have this:

Jon: People are gonna think I was lying this whole time. What could people think he was lying about....his loyalties? Did he tell them someone else had the idol? It could be him having remorse about voting out Josh with Jeremy and company....I don't know? This is perplexing, what does anyone else think the above statement means?

An unprotected Jeremy will be too tempting to resist, so Jon targets Jeremy. He tells Missy and Baylor. But Missy reacts:

Missy (camera confessional): We rock the boat too hard, one of us is gonna fall out. This sounds like she is having second thoughts about turning on Jeremy at this point? But Baylor tells us...
Baylor: Camera confessional: It's about to get crazy! Sounds like Missy and Baylor are on board with making a move against one of their own.

Then we have Jeremy:
Jeremy (talking to Natalie: You're the only one I trust. I don't trust nobody else.
Jeremy (camera confessional): I wanna make a move they don't expect.
So Jeremy does NOT trust Baylor/Missy, Jon/Jaclyn.....sounds like he wants one of them out...Couple this last statement with these:

Keith (camera confessional): I've had it with Jon. I've had it with Missy.
Wes (talking to Natalie): I just don't wanna get #blindsided.

We see Natalie trying to get Keith and Wes on board...she probably says we need you guys to vote for "X", but Wes expresses doubt, I am definitely on board but I just hope and pray you are not leading me down the garden path because I just don't want to get blindsided.
Keith saying, he's had it with Jon and he's had it with Missy sounds like he is saying this in a confessional after the plan has been proposed to him....I can't help but feel they are cutting it short before a big BUT...?

VO: Get ready for the Biggest.Blindside.Yet.

Someone is going to get blindsided, we know. We can deduce that Jeremy is gunning for the middle man, Jon, and Jon is aiming for the biggest threat to him, Jeremy. At the end of the day, we cannot dismiss that Jon has an HI, and he can play it. So if he feels things are going south in TC, he could play it and someone would indeed be blindsided.

I also can't help but wonder about who Reed, Keith, Wes, and Alec see as the bigger threat to win the game....Jeremy or Jon. Jon seems immature, goofy, and under Missy's spell, while Jeremy seems more focused, in charge, and more threatening in challenges? (He just won the last one...).

I also see that Wes could be blindsided, we know how EPMB loves irony, and Reed could be as well...

Ps. I am really looking forward to this episode! I agree the girls are not seen as threats here...the strong guys are posturing.... Thanks, Tribe!

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11-18-14, 02:36 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: SOTS | Episode 9"
Jon: People are gonna think I was lying this whole time.
What could people think he was lying about....his loyalties? Did he tell them someone else had the idol? It could be him having remorse about voting out Josh with Jeremy and company....I don't know? This is perplexing, what does anyone else think the above statement means?

I immediately thought of Jon's not-so-apparent swing last vote.
When the tribes merged, Jeremy said Jon was first on his list to connect with. Ever since then Jon has been, at least outwardly, aligned with Jeremy.
(Jons original plan being thwarted by Julie's quit and the disrespect shown towards his girlfriend.)
So, if Jeremy is indeed Jon's target this week, then the lies told to Jeremy and Natalie will just add to the lies that he already told to Keith/Wes and company. Therefore, everyone will think of him as a liar.

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11-18-14, 05:36 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: SOTS | Episode 9"
That's a big leap to go for Jon but I like it. It's funny that we are considering Jeremy and Jon for this week's boot. Quite a change from last week.
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30. "RE: SOTS | Episode 9"
I agree, I thought it was a big leap at first, but biggest.blindside.yet implies that its someone from the majority alliance going home. My first inclination was Jeremy. I do think Jeremy wants to break up another pair and it would make sense for him target Jon. Then we have two HIIs that could come into play, and if that's the case, the idol bounce would make anyone a blindside!

I'm afraid though that the guessing what's going to happen is going to be more interesting than the actual show. Hashtag trail mix anyone?!

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11-18-14, 08:11 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: SOTS | Episode 9"
I know, and I was all set on making a much less intricate SOTS this week, only to end up falling prey to the hype...again. #trailmix indeed.
Regarding #blindside...
Wes, Alec, Keith and Reed all should be very worried. And showing arrogance or appearing comfortable is usually the death knell. But blindsides usually only happen to those in the majority alliance. None of these peeps, apart from Reeds desperation, appear to be nearing the arrogance stage.
But both Jeremy and Jon appear to be in need of making a big move and while that doesn't speak exactly to comfort or arrogance, it certainly points to a sort of revolt against complacency. Neither of them wants the game to continue on the way it is going. That speaks to a bit comfort in Jon or Jeremy that is not present in Reed, for instance.
If it is Reed or Wes that goes, than I will be disappointed in the hype factor.

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11-18-14, 11:45 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: SOTS | Episode 9"
LAST EDITED ON 11-18-14 AT 11:47 PM (EST)

If it is Reed or Wes that goes, than I will be disappointed in the hype factor.

Post-ep disappointment in the hype factor is always a consideration, imo. That's why I feel Reed could be a blindside candidate, if he really thinks he's persuaded everyone to move along to his machinations, only to be thwarted. Wes, I'm not feeling as a blindside boot at all. He's been too much of a Keith-harangued nonentity thus far. Neither do I think Alec will be the boot.

Once again you've produced a stellar SOTS, tribe. Aside from Reed, I would pick Keith, Jeremy, or Jon/Jaclyn as the most logical blindside candidates. Keith and Jeremy have obvious reasons to get votes this week (Keith in particular because of Reed's imminent revelation of his idol clue). A Jon or Jaclyn boot would be a bit more twisty, but not outside the range of credibility.

Thinking...

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11-20-14, 01:46 PM (EST)
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33. "Hindsight | Episode 9"
More an expression of fatigue.

It was there. The whole time. *sigh*
I'm glad a majority of peeps nabbed the bootee despite my SOTS.
And while I'm not giving up, I am interested in fielding alternate writers in hopes of regaining some credibility for the State Of The Spoiling.
Soon to be known as the State Of Tribe's Spuriousness.

Anyone wanna take a stab?

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11-20-14, 04:43 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 9"
tribephyl your SOTS was great this week! You even called Natalie giving up Reward (and I figured Jeremy was the other one).

Note: Natalie now has volunteered to go to EI instead of Julie and gave up Reward.

And then you listed these insightful points about the boot/blindside

    * The Bootee isn't Reed. It's too obvious and it's clear he's capable of staying in the game. Even JP thinks so.
    * It won't be Keith or Wes either. Really, we see Wes claim to not want to be blindsided and he's blindsided? Perhaps. But I doubt it. Because other than this proclamtion it wouldn't be a surprise if Wes was booted. Certainly not the biggest blindside yet. Keith and the revelation of his idol will get back to him. If the majority alliance is proposing a splitting of the vote 3 and 3 then they HAVE to be aware that the remaining 4 would nullify their votes. They CANNOT split their votes. So they kinda have to go all in on Keith and pray he doesn't use his idol Or all in on someone else who they know doesn't have an idol.
    * It shouldn't be Alec because that would not be a blindside, from any angle AND he is virtually invisible from all vidcaps and action.

    So the blindside HAS to happen to someone from the majority alliance.

    IMO, one of Natalie/Jeremy, Jon/Jaclyn or Missy/Baylor are in danger of being split up this episode.

    It sounds to me like Jon and Missy are considering dumping Jeremy.
    Jon was close to that point last week (and the week before) but was prevented from doing so because of Julie's quit and then Jeremy winning the immunity.
    But Jeremy without an immunity necklace might just be too much to ask for.

    On the other hand...
    Jon/Jaclyn have been ultra-highlighted as the power couple for many many cycles now. Somehow the two of them fall into the swing vote role by no fault or doing of their own. So, even though they aren't real game players they have indeed been making the decisions.
    Well, I think some folks are ready to dump the power.

    Whether that be Jeremy (who doesn't really have any power) or Jon (who has been given power by others) or even Jaclyn (who's only power is her hold over Jon), one of these three is my main suspect for "biggest blindside yet".

All of that helped me choose Jeremy this week!

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11-20-14, 05:23 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 9"
You get quite a bit correct actually. I love your SOTS <3


I should be watched....closely.

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11-20-14, 06:43 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 9"
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-14 AT 06:48 PM (EST)

I think your SOTS's rock, tribe.

But here's a question (actually I've been wondering about this for quite awhile):

Why must the SOTS writer make a boot pick? Or pick challenge winners? The original point of having a State Of The Spoiling thread, as I recall, was to collect all the spoilage for the current episode in one place, so that anyone who didn't have time to read all the threads could get caught up quickly. And then further pre-episode discussion was conducted in the SOTS thread.

There was no bootee pick in the early ones. All picks were posted in the vote thread. (You've been here longer than me, so I'm sure you remember that.) Somewhere along the way it changed. But I submit that it isn't necessary for the SOTS writer to always feel obliged to include an "official" boot pick; that was never the point of the thread.

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11-20-14, 08:57 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 9"
There was no bootee pick in the early ones. All picks were posted in the vote thread. (You've been here longer than me, so I'm sure you remember that.)
This is true.

Somewhere along the way it changed.
I don't remember exactly but by season 9/10 I feel like I remember seeking it out because it's where we would also compile other sites picks; Snewser, ACME, EBT, MESS, TDT, etc. But I do think that part of it was to wade through the mess of stuff and relay it in the most logical sense. And while this doesn't mean that it has to have each event correct to the nth degree, but it shouldn't be misleading either.

But I submit that it isn't necessary for the SOTS writer to always feel obliged to include an "official" boot pick; that was never the point of the thread.
You're correct. I wouldn't want to be the voice of Blows and truth be told, most (if not all) of my early SOTS attempts were much more nebulous and story oriented. Sadly, the bullet list probably started with me when the SOTS went undone for a couple of seasons and I took the reins. And all of that starting because I loved making the graphic. And doing photochops for Scarlett and Flowerpower. Plus we've had so many rampant sources in the past it became EASY to bullet-list the high-points.

Now, don't get me wrong.
I couldn't stop doing SOTS if I tried.
However, you have brought to light something that may indeed bring in some new blood to the writing staff.
It DOESN'T need to be an 'official' boot pick!



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11-21-14, 11:06 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 9"
Interesting. I always thought Jiffy made the boot list.


I should be watched....closely.

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11-21-14, 11:47 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 9"
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-14 AT 11:47 AM (EST)

The picks from the other sites used to be in a thread called "Across The Board Picks", which was posted late the afternoon of the show (usually by scarlett o'hara, I think). It may have gotten added to the SOTS thread later on, I don't really remember. Webby used to post an Official Survivor Blows Pick based on the vote thread.

Anyway, I only suggested it because a) it wasn't part of the original purpose of the thread and b) it takes addtional pressure off the SOTS writer, who may not have decided yet who he/she is going to vote for at the time the SOTS gets posted. If the writer wants to make a pick, I've no objection --I just don't feel it's required.

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11-21-14, 01:45 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 9"
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-14 AT 02:01 AM (EST)

That's a good question. Not sure when it began where we started posting our boot predictions in the SOTS, but I got a wee bit nostalgic earlier and decided to look up some of my old SOTS threads:

From season 4 in the Marquesas:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2828&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes
(no boot pick)

From season 13 in Cook Islands:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=6551&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes
(boot pick listed)

From season 16 for Fans vs. Faves:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=6978&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes
(boot pick listed)

I didn't get around to checking some of the early seasons yet, but I did notice KOBrienFan posting a bootee pick in her SOTS in season 10 in Palau. So... picking the bootee in the SOTS has been around for at least 20 seasons now.

ETA: Seems pretty clear that naming the bootee in the SOTS started during the 10th season in Palau.

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11-21-14, 01:19 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 9"
Tribe....you do a phenomenal job! It's ALL good. Especially those green eyes!


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11-21-14, 02:30 AM (EST)
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40. "Pick Me! Pick Me!"
There! That should scare you into penning another ten Seasons or so of your very informative - and wonderfully entertaining - SOTS ...


G

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11-21-14, 09:33 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Pick Me! Pick Me!"
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-14 AT 09:42 AM (EST)

I pick Georganna.

I don't know how one could write a SOTS and review the clues without forming an opinion. So why not take a stab at connecting the dots?

Either way, you do really really really raunchy (Sorry, that's just finger memory) graphic-chopping, spycrafting and wordsmithing, Tribe.

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11-21-14, 11:24 AM (EST)
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43. "Goody!"
THE SOTS IN RETROSPECT

Whaddaya think?

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11-21-14, 12:33 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Goody!"
Give it a go.
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11-22-14, 02:12 PM (EST)
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46. "Comin' Clean"
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-14 AT 02:47 PM (EST)


Poor joke.

I volunteered to do a SOTS once. In fact, what I finished of it (the graphics) are still in my computer.

But, for a reason that I can't remember now (they're right, short-term memory goes first), I didn't post anything. At all.

I do, however, remember that I was very ashamed of myself. And I don't think that I ever managed to apologize to the Board.

So, I'll leave the SOTS to the grownups in the Forum. They all - and most especially Tribe - do a great job. Before showtime.

ETA (This Is Where We Build Trust ...):


G

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11-23-14, 01:00 AM (EST)
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47. "RE: Comin' Clean"
I am a firm believer in giving second chances. In fact I wouldn't be here at all if not taking that second chance.
If you're up for it, I say try try again.
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11-23-14, 04:04 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: Comin' Clean"
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-14 AT 04:39 AM (EST)

Thank you, Tribe. You're a very kind and generous man. But I enjoy the SOTS much too much to ever attempt to do one again.

Besides, I started a thread this Season that I'd really like to see through to the Finale. If I can still find it.

Note: I'd also forgotten that the Season of my discontent (and, it would seem, a nasty little case of food poisoning) was Nicaragua until I went looking for those graphics. And there we are again in more ways than geographic. So, I couldn't resist posting a few of them for nostalgia's sake and as proof that I really did start my one and only SOTS four years ago.

Now. I've dropped my last 'g' for a while and you have work to do ...

G

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11-25-14, 10:02 PM (EST)
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49. "SOTS | Episode 10"
Without further ado...

Title: "This Is Where We Build Trust"
Having a little fun with anagramming...
"Bed Leisure With Wits Hurts"
"Whew, Uh... Redistributes List"
"Sir Wildebeest, Thru With Us"
"Sleuth Wish... Twist Reburied"
Let's see which one of these comes true.

JPTease:
1. Alliances are definitely "up for grabs"
2. the immunity challenge demonstrates how incredibly demanding this game is on the mind, body, and soul.


Misdirection:
1. Another castaway trades their reward for security in the game.
2. Also, the first idol of the season comes into play during a chaotic Tribal Council


Before getting into the play-by-play it is apparent that the loss of Jeremy will rock the alliances to the core, suggesting that multiple combinations are now prevalent that were NOT there before.
We're also teased with a particularly grueling Immunity Challenge as well as a chaotic Tribal Council, complete with idol reveal.
But of note... not one mention of a blindside.

The show itself will begin with the post-TC fallout from voting out Jeremy.
The "majority" alliance went behind the back of their fellow allies and voted out a serious threat, in a 5-3-2 vote. It's clear that the majority did their best to insure they controlled the vote even when they were knowingly not going to use an equal number of voters. They needed a majority so informed Keith to vote for Reed and told Natalie they were voting for Keith. Meanwhile Missy/Baylor, Jon/Jaclyn and Reed... voted out Jeremy.
A move that even a sloth can appreciate...

So, knowing he got votes, Reed will try to do some damage control by stating that the guys must stick together.

Then Alec notes they just need one more number. (Wow, he CAN count.)

So for the rest of the episode it appears as if both Alec and Reed will do what they can to get that extra number (OR they both will flee to a more stable scenario).

Cue also the conversation that takes place between Natalie and Missy (and Jaclyn), where she openly wonders if she can trust them.

Missy will also run a fair amount of damage control and her best bet is to place the blame directly with Jon.
This is most likely why Natalie later notes that she want's Jon to get a taste of his own medicine.
To begin the scare, Natalie looks to be using the last clue she and Baylor received to once more check the camp for an idol.
Some have suggested that she indeed finds the idol. I am on the fence about it. Of course, if a clue was given, then production MUST hide it where hinted at, so it's completely possible. But in order for Natalie to give Jon a taste of his own medicine, she won't need one.
Besides, as much as she is NOT on the same page as Jon, it is my belief that Missy/Baylor and Jaclyn will convince her that focusing on Jon is not the right move right now.

But before we get into the potential targets/strategies we have some events to cover...

Reward Challenge:
Because we have 9 peeps, the Survivors will be split into 2 teams of 4 with 1 sit-out.
Having only 1 confirmation as to team placement, the rest of the members and which team wins will have to be deduced through various other clues.
With having an odd number of castaways, I believe another pick-'em style choice will ensue. And dependant on whom is leading us out with the picking will determine how the teams will lie. Missy was unchosen last time, I doubt that happens again.
Team Yellow: Jon ~ yellow 2 ~ yellow 3 ~ yellow 4
Team Teal: teal 1 ~ teal 2 ~ teal 3 ~ teal 4
Sit-Out: member 1

What is noted is that one of the winning team's members will forgoe their reward and offer it to someone else.
I know Natalie has learned her lesson, she won't be doing that again. I also know that no one will be trading their spot for Jon or Jaclyn.
I doubt Keith, Wes or Alec would be on either the giving or the receiving end of this reward swap.
Reed noted that he knew it was a good move but would he do the same thing the following episode? Possibly.
However, I think the probable outcome is either Missy or Baylor (or perhaps even Jaclyn/Jon) consider giving their reward to Natalie.


Exile Island:
I doubt Jon will be sent again. With Jeremy's revelation that sending him to EI was kinda moot, considering Jon already had the idol, it will be clear that whichever team wins they will send either Keith, Wes, Alec or Reed. To tire them out before the IC.
At the moment, I'm leaning towards Reed. but if we are to look at the IC mat placement...

It appears as if Wes, Keith and Alec look the MOST tired. There is no way the exilee is one of the women and sending Jon again seems like something no one would consider smart.
Everyone has brought their water canteens. Wes, Missy, Baylor and either Reed or Natalie are the only ones to have brought their bags.

Immunity Challenge:
This challenge will have the castaways ... enduring mind, body, soul and temptations to win.
While this challenge again seems fit for a Reed win, it should be noted that those that "seem" best suited to particular challenges end up failing at them. Also that in a couple of the promos we get shots of 8 of the 9 castaways at Tribal Council.
So, barring the use of an ImmunityNecklace-O-Matic, it appears as if the unseen castaway is our Immunity Necklace winner.
Congrats, Wes.


Tribal Council:
As we see it:
Jon/Jaclyn and Missy/Baylor are a strong 4. Adding Natalie to that insures a 5 person majority. So in all honesty, nothing else needs to be done to insure that one of "the guys" gets the boot. I try not to think to far ahead nor use strategies that seems to be too brilliant for these castaways, so the addition of 1 or possibly 2 more "numbers" doesn't really need to happen. However, we see some "alliance shifting" going on anyways.
Natalie may want to teach Jon a lesson but it won't happen.
Reed and Alec are searching for their extra number/safety net but who are they talking to and can they trust them.
Plus, we were teased with the "an idol comes into play during a chaotic TC" blurb. I think it's possible that someone plays their idol, but I also think that while some are having a difficult time figuring out what's going to happen, is because no one told them what to do. While the idol may get played, it won't effect the majority negatively. So the only chaos is the chaos that "the boys" go through because they can't stick together, nor find anyone else to vote with them.

Doing the deducing again...
Safe
Missy: Missy is in the power position now. This allows her to make the final vote and to keep her daughter safe at the same time.
Baylor: Baylor is quickly becoming the best goat for quite a few people. I think she'll have a pretty easy ride to the finals from here on out.
Wes: He is wearing the immunity necklace. No better way to be safe.
Jaclyn: Her partner is a MUCH bigger target, so if he goes then she might be in danger in the future but for this week, it's just not feasible to dump her as a number and embitter her idol-wielding boyfriend... yet.

Semi-non-safe
Jon: Since there is no blindside, I'm thinking he is just fine. BUT it must be noted that he is now Public Enemy #1. Would it be possible to blindside him? It could, but not this week.
Natalie: Same would go for Natalie, BUT considering that she was tied to Jeremy, it is possible she sabotages her own chances by playing too hard, becoming a nightmare to be around or otherwise messing up other people's games. Which from the sounds of it, the only person she's trying to mess with is Jon.
Keith: It could be Keith. However, if he honestly felt like people were ready to let him go, he'd use his idol. Successfully bouncing someone else out. He has certainly played his cards close to his chest, but he has also entered each TC with the advise of a little bird. "Whew, I tell you what. Tribal, that was a biggie tonight. Reed was going home. That's the last word I got. I even voted for Reed."
However, that little bird lied to him last time and I'm doubting that he will believe the twitter from here on out. The question now becomes will he use his idol on someone else? Perhaps his son, Wes. But Wes does not need it this round.

In danger
Alec: What's most interesting about both of these last two guys is they are both seen making inroads/deals with people outside their original alliance. Alec goes so far as to openly commit to Reed, then openly commit to Jon/Missy.
Reed: Reed, as well, cross-aligns with the majority AND vows to stay firm with "the boys". His confessional..."I'm trying to decide how I can go deeper into this game right now, whether it's sticking to the Jon type group and just picking off the people who are in my alliance, or taking out Jon. That would be a really great play because Jon thinks he's alpha male here."...really lends itself to be seen as the flighty person he has the reputation of being. Plus, he won't be able to target Jon and since that won't happen, I'm thinking the others will want to rid themselves of him first.

SOTS Bullet list
"Some problems in the world are not bullet-izable." -H.R. McMaster
"Real courage is when you know you're licked before you begin, but you begin anyway and see it through no matter what." -Harper Lee

*Reward Challenge: Yellow team wins and Baylor gives her reward to Natalie.

*Exile: Reed

*Immunity Challenge: Wes

*Tribal Council: I doubt "the guys" will end up voting for each other, but I also doubt the women will be getting rid of Jon.

*Bootee: Reed



* “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” -Winston S. Churchill

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11-25-14, 11:07 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: SOTS | Episode 10"
Congratulations on an excellent SOTS, Tribe. I guess I should give you a cigar.

But I think Alec goes!!

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51. "RE: SOTS | Episode 10"
LAST EDITED ON 11-25-14 AT 11:31 PM (EST)

Stellar SOTS, tribe.

I feel like Natalie is playing a somewhat Sandra-like game (and getting a corresponding edit), and at this point she is my pick to win.

My take on the rest: both Reed and Alec realize separately that getting in with the majority alliance is now a good idea -- whether they approach the alliance themselves or get approached. The only reason I could see Jon approaching either of them is if he feels unsure of Natalie, which the teasers are giving the impression that he ought to be. But I'm more thinking that Reed, at least, makes overtures first. Maybe Alec does too. But ultimately I think Reed is viewed as a strategist that needs to be taken out now. An Alec boot makes no sense to me; he's not a primary threat, and the removal of primary threats has been the priority since the merge.

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11-26-14, 09:00 AM (EST)
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54. "RE: SOTS | Episode 10"
What if the priority since the merge was simply to get rid of the guys?
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52. "RE: SOTS | Episode 10"
Outstanding SOTS! Thanks Tribephyl!


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11-26-14, 08:57 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: SOTS | Episode 10"
Yes, Happy Thanksgiving to all of you.

Here's an easy prediction: There are quite a few birds that won't make it.

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55. "RE: SOTS | Episode 10"
Lovely SOTS Tribe, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here and passing through. If you travel be safe if you're hosting have a drink and enjoy because in reality, you don't have to take off your slippers.


I should be watched....closely.

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56. "RE: SOTS | Episode 10"
I'll drink to that!
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57. "SOTS | Episode 11"
LAST EDITED ON 12-02-14 AT 10:31 PM (EST)

a.k.a. 2 hour show with 2 back-to-back episodes.
a.a.k.a. Episode 11

1st hour Title: "Kind of Like Cream Cheese"
2nd hour Title: "Still Holdin’ On"

JPTease:
1. No hype? Hmmm...

Misdirection:
1. After 30 grueling days, the remaining castaways battle for a spot in the final six.
2. Also, for the first time ever, castaways give up their chance at Reward in the middle of a challenge
3. and one castaway seeking revenge sets their sights on the game’s strongest player

1st Reward Challenge:
Good Ol'Fashuned Coconut Chop! Gosh, I love these alliance revealing chalenges. The results of which carry on through the tribal council debates and usually serve to wake up someone who may be on the bottom of a totem pole.
From the looks of things, and using FloPo's wonderful deductions; Alec, Baylor, Reed and Keith do NOT win the reward challenge.
Going further...

...it looks like Jaclyn still has not received a single chop, where Jon has received 1 and Missy has received 2.
Now, please note in the next cap, JP is standing behind Missy.

He is usually standing at the opposite end from the survivors during the challenge. My thought is she wins the RC, or is chosen to go along on the Reward with the winner. This is when she "attacks" Reed. Probably because Reed is making her feel badly for not picking him (since he did just pass along his last reward win to Missy) or some other event that has Missy going on reward and Reed missing out on reward.

1st Exile Island:
As noted by FloPo, it appears as if Jon has a sooty face, not only at the IC line-up...

but later on during his fight with Jaclyn as well...

My thought is that he is sent to exile. Probably in hopes that he finds another idol and can further protect the majority group.

1st Immunity Challenge:
Castaways stand in front of a box with a paddle balanced on a pole and ball. Using a ball they must roll onto the paddle and get it to balance within 1 of 6 notches/divots. Repeating with more balls until all 6 divots are full.

The last balancing challenge had Keith as the winner. My guess is he does it again.

1st Tribal Council:
Now, there was a small promo that aired during the football game which stated that there would be a purple rock situation.
Let it be known that this ad used clips from BvW1.
We have been treated to a similar "during football promo".
For Ep3, the promo touted 'two shocking Survivor firsts' . The footage being from BvW1 and highlighting the sumo match between sibiling brothers Aras and Vytas. While episode 3 did have a Rocker boot, it did not contain 2 survivor firsts.
Therefore, it is more likely that the production *whizkid* for CBS sponser-time during the football games is about as cued in to whats really happening as Drew was. The tapes say "Blood VS. Water" and "Blood Vs Water II" and the dumb-dumbs pushing buttons and inserting tapes aren't bright enough to figure out the difference.
Therefore, no purple rock.
So...
Natalie despises Jon (but was able to shelve her feelings for a stint in order to deplete minority numbers.) She got him to play his idol and now knows that he won't have another one. (Or does he?)
Missy is teed-off at Reed. NO ONE makes jokes at her daughters expense and this will cause Reed to climb to the top of Missy's hit-list.
Jon and Jaclyn fight, right before tribal council. If Jon plays like he has, he will bend to Jaclyn's will.

The Boot Deduction:
Safe

Using the future challenge promo to help us out, it's clear that Jon, Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor and Natalie ALL make it to hour 2.
Missy: Missy, with both Baylor and Natalie in her back pocket looks to be a lock for F6.
Baylor: Baylor, mostly thanks to her mother's protection, will not be in danger of bootation.
Natalie: Natalie not only has an idol but also has a bit of a buffer with Baylor and Missy. In order for her to go, Baylor and Missy would have to blindside her and with all of the other targets available, I doubt she'll be booted.
Jaclyn: Because of their fight, I do believe that both her and Jon will temporarily take their eyes off the prize and may end up getting the snuff from more industrious castaways who've taken advantage of their split. While I can't see her as target #1 of the two of them, it might be due to the hitch that Jon is immune or has an idol.
Jon: Jon is supposedly Public Enemy #1. Or at least that's what the last promo promised. The current hype is that "one castaway seeking revenge sets their sights on the game’s strongest player", well of those left Jon certainly appears to be the strongest player remaining. Will the sights actually focus in on him? More importantly, will Natalie be able to get both Missy and Baylor to dump him now, or does Natalie follow through with her tease that she "could" change the game by siding with the guys.

Semi-non-safe
Keith: If the majority is still interested in removing the opposing minority and one of Alec or Reed wins Immunity, it may very well be Keith next. But I doubt it. Because the immunity looks to be a strong point in Keith's past.
Alec: As part of the minority group, Alec straddles a sort of boot-barrier where he is not seen as a threat but it's nearing time for him to go as a non-majority member. I do believe he has a couple of people in that minority that are bigger targets, so he should be safe at least for one more episode/hour.

In danger
Reed: It really does look like his time to go, excepting an immunity win.



2nd hour Title: "Still Holdin’ On"

Using this cap as reference...

2nd Reward Challenge:
Another endurance challenge that has the castaways standing on a small wooden block and holding on to a pair of handles above their heads.
The last endurance challenge was similar, so I imagine there may be an additional aspect I'm missing.
However, Reed and Natalie were the best last time so I'd give it to Natalie this time.

2nd Exile Island:
No Idea.

2nd Immunity Challenge:
Originally played during the first Blood vs Water (Tyson won) the challenge will have the castaways holding on to a rope attached to an unbalanced table to keep the table level. They would stand a wooden block on end and have to hold on to the rope to keep the block upright. They would then retrieve one of nine wooden blocks from three stations while keeping all the blocks on the table upright. Once the block was retrieved, the castaway would have to stack the block on the table and retrieve the other blocks. Should any of the the blocks fall, the castaway would have to return to the table and restack the blocks. The first castaway to have all ten blocks standing for a three count would win.
The only table visible is Jaclyn's table and she has 7 blocks placed, is heading back with the eighth and she has lost balance of her table so she will have to rebalance all 8 blocks. You can see three blocks still on an opponents table to her right, as well we can see Missy heading back, to her left.
No call as to who might win (although I doubt it's Jaclyn) and who they share it with, as well the exilee choice is beyond my pondering. Something to consider though is the tease about...castaways give up their chance at Reward in the middle of a challenge.
This isn't a super rough challenge but it's possible that some of them might "give-up" their chances, specially when the balancing act gets difficult.

2nd Tribal Council:
Getting a little ahead of myself... Traditionally, the family visit happens some time around the F6/F7 and since this is a double episode, I'm doubting that family visit will happen during hour two, specially without any tease about visits from loved ones in the promos.
So, it appears as if the 12th episode will be our F6 and might indeed be the time to have the family visit this season.
With the info from our dear friend TeamJoisey to consider, it was stated that Jaclyn just misses this family visit. Which under these circumstances would mean that she is booted at F7.
Also of note, the "majority" can indeed safely slay one of their numbers and still retain majority after the dust settles. So if ever a time was ripe to flip-flop again, this is it...

The Boot Deduction:
Safe
Missy: Prancing her way into the finals.
Baylor: Following momma duck into the finals.
Natalie: This girl's still got an idol.

Semi-non-safe
Keith: My thoughts are that Keith is the target, without an idol he will indeed be in danger. BUT, does he somehow get involved in a coup that severs the power couple in half?
Alec: If all else fails; Keith wins immunity, Baylor/Missy and Natalie decide to stay with their majority, only then is Alec in true danger.

In danger
Jaclyn: Team Joisey says it's so. Or at least that she goes right before family visit. If Family visit is at F5, then she's safe for the second hour.
Jon: By far the strongest player left. Do the others think he might have another idol?


tribe's Bullet list
Hour 1

*Reward Challenge 1: Missy, Natalie or Jaclyn

*Exile 1: Jon

*Immunity Challenge 1: Keith wins

*Tribal Council 1: Majority+ against Reed.

*Bootee 1: Reed

Hour 2

*Reward Challenge 2: Natalie

*Exile 2: I doubt they'd make Jon go again, but then again, maybe they would.

*Immunity Challenge 2: Total stab in the dark...Natalie?

*Tribal Council 2: The alliances shift and Jon/Jaclyn become big targets.

*Bootee 2: Jaclyn



* Sorry, no mid-show SOTS for me. I got some 'other' work to do.


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58. "Well Done!"
Tribe, well done, my man! Awesome work. I was hoping you would remember the Team Joisey spoiler...it's not often that one of our own comes up with one, lol! I do believe that most times the Family visit is at F6, which would be next week. So, Jaclyn could kiss it goodbye this week. But, I am still having a hard time believing there is a family visit on a season of B v W.

If Keith and Alec survive Jaclyn it would sure be enlightening for Jon...but, with what happened last week, you would think he'd be in tune to what's going on or at stake. If they get out Jaclyn before Jon, then Jon is tipped....I think Natalie's plan would be foiled if Jac goes first.

We'll see! Thanks so much for an excellent job!

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59. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
Woot Woot! Nice summary Tribe! DH is traveling tomorrow night and I will happily settle into watching the 2 episodes in my jammies with a glass of wine (or two)!
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12-02-14, 08:48 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
Great job, Tribe. I don't think Jaclyn will be voted out this early though. I don't know what to make of that spoiler though. Maybe all the family visits were cancelled at the last minute. It has happened before.

If Reed isn't voted out in the first hour, will you reconsider doing a SOTS in the ECST?!

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12-02-14, 10:38 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
Maybe all the family visits were cancelled at the last minute. It has happened before.

You are correct. During Fiji, the Family Visit was canceled. But that was because of a governmental coup that took place during filming and for safety's sake all additional travel arrangements were scrapped.
I too find it difficult to swallow that a Family visit would happen during a Blood V Water season, but I also trust Team Joisey.

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12-03-14, 12:24 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
I have to say I was having a very difficult time pondering a Jaclyn boot before this morning, when we got the sneak peek with the origins of the fight. It really is coming altogether for me now and I think you are right, Tribe!

The thing with the Team Joisey spoiler is that I too totally credit him/her as a credible source. I don't know or not if there is a family visit. If there is, it is usually at F6, right? Also, the thing I do take away from it is that Jon outlasts her. This argument, now that we know what it is, is the catalyst, I think. They fight for over 3 days....that's ridiculous. And, it seems that she is too blinded to me. Let's face it, she does seem a bit "high maintenance", and I really don't like to use that term about anyone! It's ALL about her....it should be about them as a team. This is a breakdown in their "team".

Clearly, Natalie we know has plans to exact revenge on Jon for Jeremy. She will seize this opportunity to tear J/J apart, hopefully getting out Jon. Jon will either go, or not. Will Missy intervene? Will Jon play an idol? It appears that we may be getting something big tonight! Can only hope it compares to the last 2 episodes! Hopes are high!


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12-03-14, 03:38 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
I have serious doubts too. I mean, I trust TJ but at the same time, logistically, if Jaclyn is to go it would seem to me to be probable only during the first hour when Natalie can join with the guys and force a tie where a purple rock is used, or upon revote wherein someone like Missy changes her mind and joins Nat and the guys.
But at F7, with one of the guys gone, having Natalie trade sides doesn't make sense. 3 against 4 just won't work.
Unless she can manage to talk Missy AND Baylor into targeting Jon/Jaclyn and only then if they split votes, and again only if Jon uses a possibly newly found idol and Jaclyn is bounced OR if they somehow plan to heap the numbers on Jaclyn. Which to me seems somewhat counter-intuative to "targeting the strongest player". (But at the same time, I can see Baylor and Missy having no regrets about dumping Jaclyn.)

I have been surprised at the veritable cluster-fudge in voting strategies this season so I guess it's not completely out-of-the-realm, but I feel we've already learned the lesson of over-thinking what these people are capable of doing.
Complicated/convoluted strategies are just NOT used.

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12-03-14, 06:10 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
If there is a move against J/J I think it really can only be at F7 after Reed goes. Natalie, Missy, Baylor and Keith could be the ones to flip the game in their favor. I think that these 4 will make a F4 deal and only an immunity run by Jon or an idol could change that.
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64. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
Nice job with the SOTS, very through!

I'm going to partially dispute TeamJoisey's spoiler - I believe TJ when he says he's learned that Jaclyn goes right before a family visit (I believe she goes in tonight's second hour) ... but with regard to the suggestion that Jon is in the F3 because they might be expecting a big windfall in December, don't forget that even if they both do leave the game earlier than the F3, they still don't get paid until after the finale has aired and they can't make any plans on a house or other big expenses until they do get their money. Both of them in the F7 means they'll get decent enough money for a down payment or for other big money plans. A bank isn't going to approve a mortgage based on a future down payment centered around what you'll be getting in 3 months ahead.

At the very least, the two of them together should be getting about $60,000 for 7th and 8th places combined, going up to about $105,000 if one goes at 4th place (70K) and the other is booted tonight in 7th place (35K). IIRC, each contestant gets $10K for appearing at the reunion, so that's another $20K for these two to be applied to a down payment.

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12-03-14, 05:53 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
LAST EDITED ON 12-03-14 AT 05:53 PM (EST)

At the very least, the two of them together should be getting about $60,000 for 7th and 8th places combined, going up to about $105,000 if one goes at 4th place (70K) and the other is booted tonight in 7th place (35K). IIRC, each contestant gets $10K for appearing at the reunion, so that's another $20K for these two to be applied to a down payment.

But if one of them wins $1,000,000, it could affect what size/type of house they eventually look for, and in what neighborhoods they look, and how large of a wedding they plan. That was my takeaway on the "let's wait and see" factor. TJ clarified that the impression he got is that something is going to happen in December that influences their plans.

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69. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
There's the key wording: "Something is going to happen in December that influences their plans" ... indeed, that's when they will actually get paid.

Plenty could be done with $80,000-to-125,000 (minus taxes) and they could very well have been told by Survivor to not reveal what they're planning so they don't tip anyone off as to their final placings. Not saying that Jon doesn't make F3, but I don't think we should be making any conclusions when the wording could be interpreted in different ways.

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12-03-14, 06:48 PM (EST)
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70. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
LAST EDITED ON 12-03-14 AT 06:54 PM (EST)

Sorry, I should have quoted TJ exactly:

My impression from the comments was that the couple wants to buy a house (forgot to mention that) and get married. Something unpredictable in December will have a big impact on that decision.

He does admit that it's inconclusive, and we don't know the verbatim language the source used, and what relationship the source has to J&J. And maybe J&J were just playing coy. But TJ apparently got the sense that they were waiting to find out something that they wouldn't know until December before they make their plans.

ETA: In any event I do feel like Jon has been getting a finalist edit, regardless of this spoiler.

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12-03-14, 05:53 PM (EST)
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67. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
Speaking of Prize Money. If the Prize Money is indeed

$1,000,000 1st
$ 100,000 2nd
$ 85,000 3rd
$ 70,000 4th

And a couple makes it to Final 4 (assuming a Final 3) their options are:

Both Go to Final 3
$1,100,000 1st & 2nd
$1,085,000 1st & 3rd
$ 185,000 2nd & 3rd

One Drops Out at Final 4
$1,070,000 1st & 4th
$ 170,000 2nd & 4th
$ 155,000 3rd & 4th

Only 1 shot at making more money if you drop out that your partner has to win the $1,000,000; otherwise you should both stay in the game and you'll get at least $185,000.

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12-03-14, 05:33 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: SOTS | Episode 11"
I don't know if this goes in "Title, Tweets and Teases *No Sources*" or here, but I may have to change my vote from Jon to Jaclyn!

Jaclyn Schultz @JaclynMSchultz

YES! Finally getting my hair done! @LuigiBruniSalon Miss Michigan sponsors are the best!!

12:16 PM - 3 Dec 2014

Could be on her way to LA

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12-04-14, 06:51 PM (EST)
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72. "Hindsight | Episode 11"
Well, Hour 1 went extremely well and as predicted.
Hour 2 though... It was fairly clear that Alec or Keith were most in danger and that was indeed the case, however, the decision came down to Team Joisey's spoiler regarding Jaclyn and the Family visit.
I did some research into the Family Visits (and subsequently trashed all that info after arriving at the Ep11 SOTS.) and while F6 is the "normal" time to have a family visit, there have been instances also of the Family Visit happening at F7 as well as F5 and even more often than that at F4. So, it's not out of the realm of possibility for us to STILL have family members show up on the island. In either Ep13 or even on finale night.

And with the current spate of previews for Ep13, it appears as if family members again don't show up. So, it's still completely possible that Jaclyn is booted at F6 or F5.

Of course, it's also possible that TJ was served bad information and there is no Family Visit this season.
But my gut thought is that Jaclyn is NOT in the F3 and she IS booted at either F6 or F5.

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12-04-14, 08:15 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 11"

I can't help but think with all Jon's talk about his dad and making him proud, that his dad comes out for the family visit. Was his dad healthy enough? I believe that he is still alive but I'm not sure. I wouldn't be thinking this though if we didn't have The TJ spoiler about a family visit.
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12-04-14, 08:30 PM (EST)
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74. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 11"
If Jon's father is well enough to travel, could that be another explanation for Jaclyn's family member not coming? Jon's father allowed to serve as "Family" for either Jon or Jacyln?
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12-04-14, 09:44 PM (EST)
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75. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 11"
I doubt it. Why would Jon's father be considered Jaclyn's loved one? They're not related at all.
Are you saying that Jon's father's trip is canceled as well?
The spoiler states that Jaclyn's father does not make the trip, I don't get how Jon's father would be considered a substitute.
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12-04-14, 11:53 PM (EST)
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76. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 11"
Jon's visitor could be a sibling, relative, or friend who can tell Jon about Dad's condition. They are definitely making a big deal about it. I am half-wondering if Missy exaggerates her head-bang injury to try to one-up Jon in the Personal Tragedy department.
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12-05-14, 08:13 AM (EST)
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77. "RE: Hindsight | Episode 11"
I am half-wondering if Missy exaggerates her head-bang injury to try to one-up Jon in the Personal Tragedy department.

BHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA. BR, you are on a roll!


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12-04-14, 02:39 AM (EST)
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71. "Possible spoiler"
Over a month ago a poster posted at Sucks about the helicopter shot in the "Quit/Helicopter" thread in the spoilers section. He also made up blurry images to be Jon. After Julie quit we thought this was false and then a reputably well known source who has spoiled accurately in the past(not Kass in the finals but that could be because of the F2 not F3) says that the helicopter medevac is true. I wanted to believe it but was not sure, now this preview of Missy getting hurt has lead me to post something here that may have more clarification.
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12-09-14, 10:22 PM (EST)
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78. "Not sure if he's right"
Jim Early(Misyae) said last week Nat comes in fourth according to someone on Sucks Mess Hall Solving Riddles thread. Now people have been blocking him left and right and he even has made up fake spoilers already this season but I have to wonder if this one has any merit. Nat and Keith both have that fourth place edit. Fourth placers usually are fallen heros, older people, minorities(Cirie and Taj), and the isolated one left. Last four fourth placers were Spencer(fallen hero, isolated), Tina(older woman, isolated), Eddie(isolated), and Malcom(fallen hero).

Idk if it is even concrete though that she finishes fourth. And there doesn't appear to be any proof.

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12-09-14, 11:35 PM (EST)
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79. "RE: Not sure if he's right"
Well, I currently expect that Natalie will either make F3 (and probably win) or otherwise get taken out at F4. So, sure, this is definitely possible, imo.
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12-10-14, 02:55 PM (EST)
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80. "SOTS | Episode 13"
Title: "Let's Make a Move"

JPTease:
1. Ah, next week holds a special place in my heart because we have a challenge that was created and designed by a very special challenge producer. Austin Russell is a thirteen year old from Texas who made a visit to location through our friends at Make-A-Wish. His big dream was to contribute a challenge that would end up getting used on the show and boy did he deliver! Not only is it a cool challenge involving a huge teeter-totter and buckets of water, but it ends up creating unexpected reality on the show. That is always the hope of a challenge — that it changes the game in some way. This is definitely game changing for one player. Read into that whatever you want: It’s gonna be fun!

Misdirection:
1. A shocking tribal council leads to one of the biggest blindsides of the season. (as compared to John and Jeremy)
2. Also, a sudden ankle injury could lead to a medevac just days before the game ends ("could" means won't, but...)


To begin, we have the fallout from the last TC.
People are inquiring as to Natalie's intentions...

She tries her hardest to alleviate any fears by claiming a mis-communication occured.
Natalie: Just the way Tribal went, I knew I had to pretend to mess up and accidentally vote out Alec instead of Keith, and act my ass off to convince them that it was a mistake.

And Baylor is in the know.

Baylor: It's hilarious watching Natalie be an actress toward Jon and Jaclyn tonight. If they were smart, they would know Natalie knew exactly what she was doing.
It appears as if her excuse is effective.

Jon: That tribal was a little bit of a debacle. I guess we didn't talk enough going into it, and Natalie didn't fully understand who she was voting for. It's unfortunate that it happened here because Keith really is a threat in immunity challenges. I mean, that's a big, big deal. That potentially could screw up a lot of plans.

The next morning we'll probably have an inserted conversation between Natalie, Baylor and Missy wherein Baylor and Natalie inform Missy of their intentions to vote out Jon.

But guess what, those conversations happened roughly 9 days prior.
The episode where two idols were played at TC and Wes was bounced out. There were votes for Jon-from the guys, and the majority split their votes between Wes and Keith.
Missy squashed the hopes of Baylor and Natalie and the girls saw to it that they stuck to the plan.
By warning Jon (and Keith) to use his idol.
But 3 cycles later, is Missy still feeling the same way? We'll see...

Reward Challenge:


JP: "Not only is it a cool challenge involving a huge teeter-totter and buckets of water, but it ends up creating unexpected reality on the show. That is always the hope of a challenge — that it changes the game in some way. This is definitely game changing for one player.

This quote sets the tone for the game changing aspect for one of the castaways.
Game changing would tend to lean towards a huge step forward or backward for a player, so we need to keep our eyes on those players whom could stand to make a remarkable move that will either spell their doom OR help them get into the F3.
But before that happens, Our teams are...
Team Teal: Jon ~ Keith ~ Missy
VS
Team Yellow: Baylor ~ Jaclyn ~ Natalie

Tethered together the teams race through an obstacle course; haypile, over/under hurdles, water buckets, rope teeter-totter, waterbucket lever, gate to puzzle area.
It appears that right off the bat, the 3 young ladies get off to a great start.
More likely due to Missy's lack of coordination, and because of this I'm guessing that the 3 younger ladies win the RC.

However, and as hinted at earlier, someone makes some sort of move that either benefits them greatly or ruins their game completely.

This is also where my story starts to diverge... into the veritable pother of tid-bits from every corner of the spoiling universe.
Buy a ticket, strap in safely and let's take the ride!


Exile Island:
First thought is that it has got to be one of the guys going to exile. They should be on the losing end of things and while the choice for exilee can be "anyone", my bet is that appearances need to be maintained within the alliance, so... Keith should be spending the next few days at Exile Island.

However, it's also possible, since looking at this image of Natalie, that somehow she either choose to go to exile or is chosen to go to exile. At the IC lineup...

She's looking a bit sooty (much like Jon last week) and a bit bedraggled (like everyone whose ever been to exile).
I'd like to point out that IF it is indeed Natalie that goes to exile, I'm pretty sure it's her that volunteers to go. She has an idol and has been more than willing to pass off her rewards to others or volunteer for exile before. (Could this be the change in game?)

Immunity Challenge:

Balancing on a teeter-totter keeping steady a heavy cone. If the cone leans to hard in one or the other direction it will fall and the survivor will lose.
As noticed, the apparatus looks very much like a patented ankle-wrencher. I'm surprised that even more people aren't complaining about all sorts of twists and turns to their ankles.
Alas, it is just Missy. She definitely hurts her ankle.
She cries and a medic is sent for.
They do some initial examinations but state that a true diagnosis will have to wait until they can get an X-ray. In order to get that X-ray, Missy will have to quit the game.
If Missy has hurt her ankle, she is pretty much out of the running for any future win of any challenge... Missy does not win Immunity.

And while pre-game teases state that Missy will either have to stab her own child in the back OR fall on her own sword, it's very clear that Missy is not going to let anything get in her way of reaching the F3, including a twisted ankle.
IOW, she stays. She works through the pain, refuses an x-ray and continues on.
And just to let you know, She's doing fine now...

even her Dr. says it's okay. This shot is from her twitter account back in October. Full mobility 2 months after the incident does not bespeak of a broken anything.
When I broke my metatarsal bone in my foot I was in a cast and unable to work for nearly 4 months. Full mobility didn't occur for another 2 to 4 months. And if I'm correct, a foot heal is much easier than an ankle heal.
Regardless, she doesn't win immunity.

If Jon is a possibility for bootation, then... Jon does not win Immunity.

If Keith had immunity then we would NEVER receive a confessional where Jon says he trusts his alliance, as the alliance would HAVE to devour itself... Keith does not win Immunity.

Of the three remaining ladies; Natalie, Baylor and Jaclyn, I seriously doubt Jaclyn is capable of winning, which leaves Baylor and Natalie.
Between these two ladies, normally, I'd give the edge to Natalie. In fact, she may do it. But if she does indeed end up going to exile, then she will be depleated energy-wise.
So, for this week, I'd give the edge to Baylor. More just a feeling than any hard proof, but I think the layout of the rest of the episode hinges on Natalie, Jon and Keith without Immunity.

Tribal Council:
Baylor is Immune and not going anywhere. Now, her and her mother are the power couple.
Missy wants to keep Jon.
Baylor wants to keep Natalie.
Jon/Jaclyn want to boot Keith.
Baylor/Natalie wants to boot Jon
BUT, what does Keith want?

Some have speculated many various and intricate idol plays and voting scenarios and while it's definitely a possibility, I've learned throughout the many past seasons and especially this season that the survivors themselves DON'T like scenarios that are too complicated.
The fact that Natalie had to answer for her vote at the last tribal council, when really either choice between Alec or Keith was fine, proves that they don't feel comfortable making decisions based on a lot of little intricasies taking place. Too many things can go wrong.
So, I'm guessing that no one plays an idol. Both Natalie and Jon will feel confident enough going into TC, that neither one will feel the need to play their idols. Saving them, instead, for the F5 when they HAVE to use them.
But before we get to the deductions it must be noted that CBS is touting a blindside at TC.
JP even goes so far as to restate the tagline..."Outwit, Outlast, Outplay" and then adds... "this game is wide open!"

I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it again... in order for the game to go from fairly predictable to wide open, one of the power-players will have to be leaving at F6.
Our current power-players are Jon and Natalie (and some have said Jaclyn as well. I don't see it but I may as well include her as she is tied to a powerful player.)
But since I'm in a fighting mood, let me just say a few things about Jaclyn.
The TJ spoiler states that Jaclyn's father was asked NOT to make the flight to Nicaragua, at the last moment. While Family visits have happened at any moment from F7 to F4, the overwhelming majority of them happened at F6. Since Jaclyn was not booted at F7, it's still possible that this spoiler is true. However, the statistics for Family Visit are as so... F6 is at about 75%, F4 is at about 15%, F5 and F7 are about 5% and not at all is also at 5%. So my thought is that Jaclyn is booted at F5 (which makes sense with the amount of possible idol play that has to happen then.)
However, IF idols are played and Jaclyn is somehow bounced out, the mere lack of idols would indeed cause JP to state the game is wide open. Everyone is on an even playing field, so to speak.
But anyways...

The Boot Deduction:
Safe
Missy: She'll be riding the sympathy wave into the finals. PLUS, she's got her hand in everyone's pocket. Everyone left in the game at this point is there because Missy wants them there... excepting Jaclyn.
Baylor: Baylor's standing with the majority of jurors bespeaks of someone who did not have the time to soften the edges of her gameplay. Because of this, everyone left in the game wants to bring her to the finals to insure a win against her.

Semi-non-safe
Keith: Keith should be dead man walking. BUT he's also an advantageous vote IF the majority alliance is ready to pick off one of their own.
Jaclyn: I put her as semi-non-safe because she has been part-n-parcel to the duo of swing-votes that have shaped the jury. Jon is the power in the power couple, but her bootation would mean idols were played and the once powerful Jon is now singular. However, I also know that all players left know that Jaclyn doesn't stand a chance in the fianl 3 and will probably want to keep her around as another goat.

In danger
Jon: Jon has been riding in the comfortable shade of Missy's protective wing for a few weeks now. He also has an idol and an extra vote in his arm. BUT, he's been in the crosshairs for many many cycles now as well. Is Missy ready to sever the apronstrings? OR does she really still think she can beat him in the finals? Do Baylor and Natalie get their big chance to boot the last remaining obstacle to the finals? *crosses fingers*
Something else about Jon. Considering the up front editing the promos have been for past "blindsides" (John/Jeremy) it's completely possible that it happens yet again. The story isn't how does someone work their way to the finals but moreso who ends up screwing up the plans of those who work to get to the finals.
Natalie: Natalie also has an idol and with a tight relationship between her and Baylor, I believe any plans to boot Natalie would be followed by a strange change in Baylor's personality towards her and that would clue Natalie into playing the idol. It is possible though, that Missy takes the info about wanting to boot Jon to Jon himself, setting up a scenario where they could pretend to stay tight with her but end up voting for her. Leaving Baylor out of the loop with that move. However, I know Jaclyn is aware that "they" might blindside Jon but Jon seems blissfully unaware of Natalie's intentions. I also think that the moves made by Natalie (at and after the RC's) will end up cluing Missy into the fact that Natalie is gaining lots of favor within the jury. This will create a huge target for Natalie. It would sadden me greatly to see Natalie move into the Ponderosa but as one of the last few "deserving" castaways I fear for her longevity.

tribe's Bullet list

*Reward Challenge: Baylor, Jaclyn and Natalie. Natalie gives away her reward AND volunteers for Exile.

*Exile: Natalie (Unless Natalie doesn't volunteer, in that case it's gotta be Keith.)

*Immunity Challenge: Baylor wins

*Tribal Council: A blindside. And most likely somone who is seen as a threat, but feels confident in their alliance.

*Bootee: Natalie



* Can't wait to get the next SOTS done. This has been a difficult season to predict and every subsequent week I have to muster even more reserved enthusiasm for continuing on.
* I do thank you all for your support and kudos, even when I'm almost always wrong in the prediction department.
* However, if I'm right this week, I can almost guarantee that I got the finale episode down as well. I hope I'm right but feel confident I'm wrong.
* Oh, and regarding Missyae. Sadly he's become a victim of the spoiling spoilers machine. He was fed good info for a few seasons but ever since has been spreading an increasing amount of falshoods directed to him because everyone knows he can't keep it to himself.

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12-10-14, 03:28 PM (EST)
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81. "RE: SOTS | Episode 13"
Another Tribe masterpiece, thank you so much for all your time and energy this season.


I should be watched....closely.

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12-10-14, 03:48 PM (EST)
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82. "RE: SOTS | Episode 13"
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-14 AT 03:50 PM (EST)

A great SOTS!

And I will defer to you about ankles. And pretty much anything and everything else about this Season of Survivor.

But I'll offer this slightly contrary view for discussion's sake:

We know that there is a Tribal Council. But that doesn't necessarily mean that Missy stays in the Game.

Perhaps her injury occurs as she is exiting the Challenge. Or, perhaps, the initial injury does occur at the RC and is exacerbated by the IIC before Missy steps down from it. And, in either case, perhaps the medical team is not summoned until the IIC is concluded.

Because, I am beginning to think that a great deal of effort has gone into creating an evacuation that ... never was.

And then there is this:

Note: If you think of publicly-available Facebook entries by Survivors and/or their family members and friends as 'Sourced Spoilers' ...
Stop Here!

And if you believe that the content of my post
should be removed, Tribe, please let me know.

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In view of the fact that this person knows Baylor and her mother well,
I have to think that whether Missy leaves the Game or not,
her injury may not have been insignificant.

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12-10-14, 03:57 PM (EST)
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83. "RE: SOTS | Episode 13"
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-14 AT 03:58 PM (EST)

I am faithful reader of your SOTS, Tribe. Keep it up.

Right or wrong, you are always very logical, and your guesses are reasonable. All one can ask.

As to Missyae. It lessened my enjoyment of Survivor when he would give it away, and no matter how diligent people were, those spoilers always leaked into the non-spoiler threads. I actually started my BTS spoiler thing in a futile attempt to ridicule him.

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12-10-14, 06:32 PM (EST)
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84. "RE: SOTS | Episode 13"
Great job, Tribe. I just have to wonder why the jury members would say that Natalie is a good player if she is booted with an idol in her pocket. Booted at F4 would put her in the company of other good players.
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12-10-14, 07:42 PM (EST)
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85. "RE: SOTS | Episode 13"
Wow, I have been away from this site for so long, I had to re-register. I have missed it.

Anyhow, great SOTS but I hope you are wrong in your boot prediction. Team Natalie all the way.

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12-10-14, 08:24 PM (EST)
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88. "RE: SOTS | Episode 13"
Natalie is doing a lot of retweeting........
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12-10-14, 08:17 PM (EST)
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86. "WOOOOHOOOOOOO! "
A Tribe SOTS NEVER disappoints! I LVOED it! I wouldn't be surprised in the least if this is the way it goes down. Solid, Tribe, totally solid! Hey, if you need any help next week with whatever, whenever, I am here for you! xoxoxox Flo

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12-11-14, 02:50 PM (EST)
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89. "RE: WOOOOHOOOOOOO! "

You have a red flaggy thingy!
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12-11-14, 05:59 PM (EST)
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91. "RE: WOOOOHOOOOOOO! "
I am on it, Tribe! I will be checking my red flag regularly in the next days!
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12-15-14, 01:19 PM (EST)
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94. "PAIGING....Mr. Tribephyl"

I am finished with my assignment...the eagle has landed! Sent it to your pm....let me know that you got it! xoxo

And, may the force be with you!


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90. "RE: WOOOOHOOOOOOO! "
If you need some further help (or even someone to take the load off you), let me know... I'd be happy to help in some way with the SOTS.

My teaching schedule is very light after this week with the holidays approaching.

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87. "RE: SOTS | Episode 13"
GREAT SOTS tribephyl! Thanks!

Of course now I'm only more confused about who to vote for!

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12-14-14, 03:25 AM (EST)
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92. "Keith's brother"
His FB is pretty much public and he's cheering on Keith a lot. He apparently has been kept in the dark, which does make me wonder. If someone did not make ftc would they hold that back returning home?
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93. "RE: Keith's brother"
Yes - they're supposed to hold it back without revealing where they finish, as per their contracts. It's been pretty common in the past for even spouses to say they have no idea where their partners finished on the show. Denise's husband said he didn't know his wife was up against the final jury in the Philippines until the finale was aired, for example.
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12-17-14, 09:59 AM (EST)
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95. "FINALE..."
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-14 AT 10:31 AM (EST)


Tribe and I were going to do a combined SOTS, a veritable "He said: She said:". But, I think Tribe has hit a snag, so until he returns, I thought I would post my part. Hold on to your hats because judging by the vote thread so far, there is a BIG difference in opinions....! YAY! The stellar part of this season, no matter how Jiffy feels about it, has been it's unpredictability. That my friends, is what I find particularly challenging, keeps me coming back for MORE! Bring it!

As I began to scour the evidence with the preview promo, I have been ALL over the place with my conclusions. First of all, I thought Jaclyn could have foreshadowed herself into the F3, when she argued with Jon on the beach and huffed, “well, I’m going to the final 3 then.”

Next, when the promos touted “A final blindside”, I presumed that it really sets up Natalie. She is the one with ALL the power, imo. She is in a solid F3 with Missy and Baylor. Clearly, for it to be a blindside, it must be someone in the power alliance...Natalie, Missy, or Baylor. I certainly favored Natalie.


This is MY Time!!!

The episode begins with the wrath of Jaclyn, calling out Natalie. Arguing, drama, and a renewed commitment to win the game from Jaclyn....she tells us in confessional the next morning...she didn’t come 36 days to be voted out.

...she may be the one that utters our title, This is MY time! She's certainly been solidly seen as a minority partner in the Jon/Jac duo, and now that he's out of the picture?

With the preview vidcaps I suspected we were going to have an RC. Why not? They have one more opportunity to hide another HII. This was confirmed with the press images.

At first I thought the variation of the Simmotion challenge would be for immunity as that's how it was presented. But, it's clear to see that it will be for reward. Here they are at the start of the challenge, note that Nat does not have on her IN:

Then, we also see a shot of Missy in mid-challenge:

Baylor:

And, Keith:

Well, this is a challenge involving balls and manipulating balls, and we all know that Keith has won EVERY challenge that involves balls....the balancing balls in the IC, then the land the ball on the divots RC. So, clearly Keith is my fav to win. But, I also think Keith may win this because he sends Baylor to exile island...

And, that leads to this:

Then this...

We know some of the voices heard from the season preview that was shown after epidsode 2 have not been shown. For example, we never heard Jon exclaim, “Somebody’s got the idol and we’re gonna burn it!” But, seeing Keith smacking himself in the head like the idiot he’s appeared to be this entire game, then thinking back to this statement also uttered in that season promo, “I’ve done the worst thing in Survivor history!” Clearly, this sounds like it’s from a confessional to me. I think that Keith may just win the RC at F5, and send Baylor to EI, not realizing that he is giving her the opportunity to find an HII. He is smacking himself, because he could have sent himself...

It’s a stretch, but it sure fits.

F5 Immunity Challenge:

Onto the F5 IC, Pole Dancing. Here are our F5 lined up on the mat and you can note that Nat is wearing the IN which she will be promptly returning....

John Kirhoffer explains the challenge himself: In this challenge, individual players (5 of them) will have a belt and a bit of rope attached to it. They will have to unspool as much rope as they think they need to make it over this timber bridge, to a table with sandbags. Then they throw sandbags at a series of blocks. The first player to knock OFF all 15 blocks from their table wins Reward. Note, he said it was for reward, but now we know it's for immunity. Here are some glimpses of them at the F5 IC...

Natalie sizing up the challenge at the start....you can see the structures in the background, the teal structure, and she is going to run the purple lane. She is right next to the teal structures...

Here is Natalie at the final leg of this challenge, and note, the teal blue, which clearly is finished with the rope untangling portion is already past this part....can't be Missy's, so must be Keith's area. Keith is most likely in the Teal section.

Since Natalie is still trying, she most be somewhere close to the lead in the competition...

Here are others that we see competing in the tethered challenge/RC:

Baylor (yellow): Baylor is at the second station of the tethered challenge, and note she’s wound the rope over her shoulder?

Here is Jaclyn (red) at the tethered challenge...

She is at the first station of the challenge...

Who do I think wins....not Missy! Nor Jaclyn. Nor Baylor. So it’s down to Nat and Keith. I definitively think that Keith will win this. Untangling those ropes is definitely a skill that Keith has as a fireman. I also think he'll be much better than the girls at throwing bags to knock down a pyramid as well. I think if Keith did NOT win this F5 IC, he'd be toast! Since we know he lives to see the F4 IC, I'll say Keith wins the F5 IC!

FINAL F4 IMMUNITY CHALLENGE:

We knew that Jaclyn and Keith would live to see the F4 IC...here they are with the tall stair structure behind them...


Here is the lay out of the challenge;


With all of these steps it reminds me of the challenge that Boston Rob won at the end of Redemption Island, when he was extremely spent.

This is going to be a very physical challenge, where they run to get bags then run up all the steps, then complete a puzzle of the San Juan Del Sur Emblem....here is Keith toward the end of the challenge:

Keith is well into solving this puzzle...the last leg of the final challenge...

RESULTS:

F5 RC Winner: Keith
Exiled: Baylor
F5 IC Winner: Keith
F5 Tribal Council: Well, we know that Natalie has an HII, Keith will have an IN, and more than likely Baylor will find a HII. That leaves the boot choices of Jaclyn and Missy. Since Jon told us in his exit interviews that Jaclyn would have wanted to have been voted out here to not only vote for Jon to win, but to campaign for him in the jury. Jon was voted out, so now Jaclyn is in. He told us that Baylor had been planning on doing the same thing. But, now that Missy is broken, crying, and she didn't find the HII, I think she will be the one to go to the jury to vote Bay and to campaign for her. SEG will make it LOOK like a blindside. So, this WILL satisfy the "ONE FINAL BLINDSIDE" tout from CBS. It's a blindside because Missy is in the controlling majority alliance left in the game. Missy ~ Baylor ~ Natalie.
Voted out: Missy. She will appear to be blindsided.

F4 IC Winner: I do give the physical edge to completing this challenge the fastest to Keith. However, we see that while the puzzle is not to complicated, it has MANY pieces. We see that Keith is well into that puzzle. However, I do not see Keith beating Natalie at a puzzle. Since this challenge ends with this puzzle, I favor NATALIE as the winner.

F4 Tribal Council: Clearly, Keith will be voted out. He has far too many friends on the jury.

F3: Natalie, Baylor, Jaclyn

Final TC, Jury votes:
Josh: Natalie
Wes: Natalie
Reed: Natalie
Alec: Natalie
Jon: Jaclyn
Missy: Baylor
Keith: Natalie

S29 Winner: Natalie

How fitting! Her sister was the first one voted off, and she was the last one! Whether Natalie states it or not, THIS IS HER TIME!

I will add, if Keith has a great lead over Natalie, then it is possible to entertain that he could pull it out. If he does, then he's our WINNER! But, I am going with Natalie! See you NEXT season!

I would LOVE for Tribe to get here and post a variation to what "she said"! Sure hope all is well, and I apologize Tribe for moving ahead.....xoxo


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12-17-14, 01:14 PM (EST)
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96. "RE: FINALE..."
Great final SOTS, FloPo, but while I am rooting for Natalie to win I have to think it won't happen. The kibosh was put on it when she said she knew she could beat Missy and Baylor.

And I, too, would relish the symmetry of Nadiya going out first and Natalie winning, but, alas, life doesn't often happen symmetrically. 😊

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12-17-14, 02:05 PM (EST)
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97. "RE: FINALE..."
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-14 AT 02:12 PM (EST)

Very nice FP, expertly done, adroitly presented, and intelligently reasoned.

However I am a bit uncomfortable with so many assumptions regarding how Keith will do based solely being a man as well as his presumed ball handling talents based on two other challenges. There is undeniably luck involved in most of those challenges, and winning 3 of 3 when luck is at least partially involved is slightly against the odds, statistically speaking. But there isn't much else to go on, and you have to use what you do have, and I admit you make a good case.

And there would be some lesser B first and M last symmetry (plus a blindside that would not depend on production's slanted idea of blindsiding) in Baylor being booted at F5 TC and Missy winning, a mother heroically making it to the end on a game ankle.

I think the subtle negatives in Nat’s edit (BR mentions one) has set us up for a begrudging acceptance of her defeat. IMO, she has accumulated more of these negatives recently that any of the others. Even Keith (spit). IMO the negative edits, in descending order are Nat, Baylor, Keith (showing his continuous spitting is meant to be a subtle negative, I think), Jac and Missy.

The jury may think differently. And probably will.



Tribe puts me in my happy place.

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12-17-14, 06:00 PM (EST)
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98. "He Said..."
First off, thank you FP; not only for contributing to this final issue but for going ahead with the posting of your thoughts as well. The He Said portion is now in some sort of cyber-stasis floating on some non-cloud in pixel-purgatory.
So the following will have to just be from memory and without graphic representation. I also knew that I wanted to do my version without influence of yours (you are powerfully persuasive) ...alas, that didn't end up happening either.

Secondly, Congrats on a masterful job. I can see what you're saying. I do happen to recall my version was indeed different but I fear I may end up changing a thing or two with my SOTS after reading your SOTS.

Anyways, here we go...

Day 36:
Post TC:
After having it out with Natalie over how Jon really is in life versus how he was in the game, Jaclyn will break the fourth wall by confessing that she didn't get to 36 days just to be voted off.
1st official tangent:
Hmmm... Lot's of things to ponder with this statement. Considering the Final5 plans of Jon/Jaclyn, Missy/Baylor and Natalie was working towards an F3 of Jon, Missy and Natalie, with Baylor and Jaclyn running jury influencing for their respective loved ones. I find it interesting that Jaclyn finally gets some momentum for moving things forward. "This is MY Time", indeed!
Taking into consideration JP's season-long statements regarding players being taken out by adapters leads me to believe as strong as the F5 alliance appeared, they all had different ideas about the F3. Namely Baylor and Jaclyn and their newly-found desires to make it to the end, possibly at the cost of their loved one. But moreso at the hand of those players willing to think outside the box.
JP has gone so far as to describe Baylor as being able to take ownership of those same moves that Natalie has appeared to make, yet avoid the fallout that Natalie will appear to receive.
Add to that JP's early statement about Missy and Baylor and Missy's ultimate choice to either stab her daughter in the back or fall upon the sword herself, leads me to think may things about this episode.
Not too mention...but I'm going to anyways... JP's overall hype for this season has been nowhere near the level of overjoyment teases about previous and recent seasons. Even NEXT season is getting buzzed louder than this season was.
Most would claim that JP likes it when "players" make it to the end and likes it even more when it trends towards male-centric finalists. If JP ain't that excited but has to spread hype regardless...it's why he overly-stresses points where the normal things you look for are NOT there in the current slate of finalists, and overall means that the "more deserving" players are not winners...it's because what he thinks we're hoping for is NOT what actually happens.
IOW, It probably is a MOST unexpected winner.
...end of first tangent.


The survivors are quickly shuttled off to their first challenge. Nope, don't bring your immunity necklace, this challenge is for Reward ...and 1 last chance to find a hidden idol at Exile Island.
Reward Challenge:
As evidenced from FP's caps, all 5 are present yet we only see Keith, Missy and Baylor participating.
I would normally call a winner, and my previous thought was that Missy didn't win, Jaclyn didn't win, and Baylor didn't win. Which leaves Natalie or Keith for the win. It does appear as if the edge should be given to Keith, as his previous prowess with balancing balls is becoming legendary, but also because of the choice for Exilee. Of all the players left, Keith probably cares the least for Baylor. I also think this is a very rash and personal decision that will indeed lead to Keith stating, with a slap to the face, the stupidest thing he has done as he realizes that with one fell swoop, he angered the she-wolf, alienated himself from Natalie and possibly placed a hidden immunity in Baylor's hands.

Day 37:
Reward Feast:

The reward takes place and wouldn't you know it, Keith and ... Missy? .... are finally enjoying a meal together. Perhaps a couple of surprises thrown in to really get the tears a-flowin'.
Exile Island:
Meanwhile, Baylor is at exile and is being led, by the cameraman, to the spot where the last idol is hidden.
@ Camp:
Back at camp, Natalie and Jaclyn are forced to bury hatchets. (Perhaps in each other's backs?)

F5 Immunity Challenge:
All are gathered for line-up. Missy is immobile and begrudingly sits out for the challenge. Of course, JP will question her validity as a player if she isn't participating but really, what can she do?
This is where Natalie has to give up the necklace one last time and the castaways are tethered to a lengthy rope that is wrapped around a large cube. Then they'll have to use poles to build (and rebuild) a horizontal ladder over the next obstacle. Hopefully, they've unraveled a sufficient length of rope or they won't be able to reach the final stage which the castaways will use some sandbags to knock a pyramid of blocks off of a table. This is also where the castaways will be harshly judged on the rope-length, as they may have had enough to reach the table to throw, but do they have enough rope if they miss on a few bags and have to retrieve them? Having to go all the way back, to unravel more rope, will pretty much spell ultimate doom.
We know Missy can't win. We can almost tell that Baylor isn't going to have enough rope length. Jaclyn couldn't possibly come out of nowhere to win and while we're given shots of Natalie at the knock-the-blocks-off stage, I think she'll fall just short. The one who I believe will make the right judgment calls all the way through is Keith.

Tangent #2:
I give the necklace to Keith at this moment because he has remained #1 on the hit-list for many weeks and only an immunity win will save his hide at this time. So if the ladies have to eat themselves it wouldn't be too big of a surprise that they'd pick Jaclyn to go next. However, the community was given a shot of Jaclyn at what could only be the giant JP steps at the final stage for the F4 IC. Speaking of, we have vidcap confirmation that Keith participates in F4 IC as well. So if both of the "outsiders" make it to F4, then one of Missy, Baylor or Natalie gets voted out tonight.
Add into that Natalie's idol play and the potential for Baylor's idol play and we're left with Missy. BUT, with the blindside also comes the level of comfort needed in order to blindside. Which means that Natalie may feel confident enough to keep a souvenir instead. And trusting Baylor to find an idol ... well, I wouldn't bank on it.

F5 Tribal Council:
I hate to say it, but I think this is where our "1 last blindside" happens. Not that the ending won't be surprising, but imagine if it's an F3 where it's a best of the worst voting situation. The hillbilly is safe, the pageant girl is safe and Missy will be suffering the guilty pang of taking someone-more-deserving's spot in the finals.

Day 38:
Post TC:

WOW! is all Baylor can say. She's glad her mother saved her butt but nevertheless foggy about not being told about Natalie's snuffing. Turn about is fair play though and even from behind the support of a crutch, Mommy teaches daughter a valuable lesson.

F4 Immunity Challenge:
The Behemoth. Once again, Missy sits out. Praying that Baylor can somehow swoop down and pull out a win to protect her.
With five different obstacle courses to maneuver through, grabbing a bag from each, running, climbing and finessing up and down the behemoth five different times, it will get exhausting for sure. Yes, on the level of the F4 challenge for Redemption Island. Resulting in a hyper-ventillating Robfadduh too spent to celebrate. On the surface this looks like it has Keith written ALL OVER IT. Well, all except for that puzzle. That puzzle will get the best of Keith and will afford an opportunity for either Jaclyn or Baylor to "steal" the game from the last remaining player.

F4 Tribal Council:
Baylor has earned her way, physically, into the F3. Now comes time to decide whether taking Jaclyn or Keith is better for their final game. And since the only things that have saved Keith these last few times are no longer there... Keith's torch is snuffed.

Tangent #3:
I always hope that the final tribal council somehow works it's way down to the most deserving people. That for the first time ever, the jury will be given the choice of the best of the best. At this very moment of the game, Keith and Natalie are the one's edited as most deserving. Therefore, our choice must be those that are the best of the worst. Working it's way down to an F3 of all females of varying degrees of undeserving. Or at least, that's how JP would perceive it. And, sadly, how it's been edited. The power-players all stand at the top of the confessional piles until they are taken down by the next in line to rise and then fall. It started with Dale, moved into Josh, then Jeremy and finally with Keith. Baylor has always been one-step below Keith the whole way through and I'm letting that influence my ultimate decision. As well, JP's need to make Baylor palatable to viewers by comparing her strategy with Missy's or Natalie's or Josh's. I also think that Jaclyn stands a bit of a chance to be the ultimate usurper if the mother/daughter dynamic splits the votes like I foresee it doing.

Day 39:
F3 day of remembrance, repast and regret.

Baylor, Jaclyn and Missy will be woken up with a visit from JP and a congratulatory basket of F3 brunch items. Each will be seen contemplating their entreaties at Final Tribal Council and their fears about other chances as well. Missy's got to know that while she stands a better chance of winning against either of the younger ladies, she won't be getting Jon, Natalie or Alec's vote. So she has to rely on Jeremy, Josh, Reed, Wes and Keith for a win. But I can also see Keith and Wes voting for Baylor as a tribute to her last ditch effort, her personal "JennaMorasca" moment. She WAS indeed part of all of the big moves, yet somehow kept most of the dirt on others.

Final Tribal Council:
The Jurors are gonna give it baaaad to these final three castaways. On the jury are Josh, Jeremy, Jon, Natalie and Keith. The five biggest players of the season. Not that they'll be bitter but they will definitely have a hard time deciding which of these ladies played the best.
It's one thing to be making the decisions but just being a cog in those decisions and then somehow moving forward is a harder game strategy to base a win out of.
1. Sure, Missy has an amazing social game. She had to with a twisted ankle and it definitely served her well since her name was NEVER written down before. She had lot's of friends on the jury but has backstabbed each and every one of them.
2. Baylor has been close to leaving on a few different occasions but has managed to stay VERY close to the action without suffering the majority of the outcome. She's a flip-flopper, and is seen as very immature. I seriously doubt Baylor will fully develop the chops to sway the majority during Jury Questioning. But leave it up to JP. He's had to remind us of how good she is for some time now.
3. Jaclyn has an automatic vote in Jon but can her and Jon convince anyone else that she deserves a win? Well, she may not have to if Baylor and Missy end up dividing the remaining votes.

tribe's bullet list:
F5 Reward:
Keith wins. Brings Missy along on reward and sends Baylor to Exile Island.

Exile Island: Baylor goes to Exile. Lucky for her it's only 1 day in length, unlucky for her, despite the many attempts by production to get her to locate the HI, she comes back empty handed.

F5 Immunity: Keith wins.

F5 Tribal Council: The ladies will have to eat themselves, but Missy realizes that she and her daughter will have a much easier chance against Jaclyn than they will against Natalie. But this means that Natalie doesn't play her idol. Which seems a sure sign of survivor-ineptitude. But we'll all see it moreso as an ultimate betrayal, versus a good move. Our one-last blindside and Natalie is the victim.

F4 Immunity: I am crossing my fingers for Keith but I think Baylor snags it from his hands.

F4 Tribal Council: Keith is, finally, dead man walking. He is the remaining hope for JP and since he's on the outside (and deserving of a win) he will be ousted. Plus, he hasn't voted the entire jury out and therefore is the biggest threat for the win.

Final Tribal Council: Baylor VS Jaclyn VS Missy

As we try to pass the jujubes, it must be noted that some votes will be automatic.
Jon will vote for Jaclyn.
Alec will vote for Baylor.

The voters up for grabs are Keith, Wes, Natalie, Jeremy, Reed and Josh.
And even though the younger ladies start off with automatic votes, I think Missy may end up with a much more convincing Jury question/answer session.

Jury Votes: 5 for Missy, 2 for Baylor, 1 for Jaclyn


Final Tangent: And now that I'm finished with the 2nd or 3rd version of this final SOTS and I still have yet to post it (And doubtful many will get the chance to read it before the airing) I do hope that we all have a good time regardless of the outcome and that we all promise to be back next season (starting in February). I'll miss you all til then...unless of course we hang out in the off-season.

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12-17-14, 06:20 PM (EST)
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99. "RE: He Said..."
Thanks for all the work you do FloPo and Tribe. You both rock!

I want Natalie to win and I think Natalie wins. I like the way FloPo laid things out so fingers crossed that will happen. I wouldn't be surprised if Keith wins though. But at any rate, the second half of this season has been exciting and unpredictable so I expect the finale to deliver too!

Happy Holidays everyone and see you in February.

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12-17-14, 06:37 PM (EST)
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100. "FP and Tribe ... "
Thank you both!

He and She were great.

G


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12-17-14, 06:39 PM (EST)
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101. "RE: He Said..."
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-14 AT 06:42 PM (EST)

Natalie is shown walking pass the same steps as Jac in the F4 Immunity challenge. I believe Baylor could have said WOW because Natalie flipped and blindsided Missy.

Natalie at the same steps as Jac in this video at the end of it.
http://instagram.com/p/wtl8w9HjtL/

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12-17-14, 08:43 PM (EST)
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104. "RE: He Said..."
Tribe, just returning home now, I LOVE the "He said!", it's wayyyyy out of the park, which is thrilling! At least to me! Thanks so much for all you do, this is going to be a fun one! Good luck!

I just can't get behind a Keith win, and it scares me that he possibly could. After all the years of this show, and all of us that love it so much, can someone that knew nothing about it all year long actually win? For me, they hit the "NALE" on the head last week when Missy had her confessional regarding the "entertainment" of the day...Keith. For me, that's all he's been this entire adventure...the entertainment. He's a good ole' boy for sure, and I do like him and respect him, but I don't favor him as winning a strategic game...

But, he could just possibly. Hoping it's a deserving winner....Nat, and I suppose Missy could fit there too! xoxo Thanks so much, Tribe!

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12-17-14, 07:15 PM (EST)
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102. "RE: FINALE..."
She said!
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12-17-14, 07:21 PM (EST)
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103. "RE: FINALE..."
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-14 AT 07:51 PM (EST)

Great job on the SOTS guys. This has definitely been as a-typical season. I can't wait to see how it all plays out tonight. I also can't wait to see which jury shows up--the one that is nice and pure to each other at Ponderosa or the delusional group that still has issues and axes to grind.

Oh, I just saw on Facebook that Kat is now dating Drew Christy. Why would she ever consider that, he didn't make the jury! 😜

Contemplating a vote change based on the SOTS and two other random reasons. Jim Early seems to be hinting that Natalie could beat anyone if she is in the F3 and that CBS is pimping Nat and Keith as the favorites in the finale because any other outcome would mean lower ratings. AND, a few minutes ago I checked the magic TV listing and Drew's names us gone (it was still listed last week) and has been replaced with Jaclyn Shultz. I am tempted to switch to M/N/K/B/J.

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12-17-14, 08:49 PM (EST)
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105. "RE: FINALE..."
Great job, FP and Tribe.
2 SOTS for the price of none is a tremendous gift.
Thank you.

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12-17-14, 09:14 PM (EST)
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106. "RE: S29 | State Of The Spoiling | The Merge and Beyond..."
A deleted tweet leaked Natalie, Missy, and Jaclyn as the f3.
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12-18-14, 07:24 AM (EST)
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107. "RE: S29 | State Of The Spoiling | The Merge and Beyond..."
LAST EDITED ON 12-18-14 AT 07:42 AM (EST)

Thank you, Outsider, for bringing this to us. And for all of the other information you've shared throughout the course of the Season.

This was, of course, a legitimate spoiler posted at Sucks at 5:58 PM (Eastern Time) yesterday by KingAras.

Evidently, the photograph of the display of San Juan del Sur's fifteen snuffed torches - neatly labeled with the names of their former owners, including Baylor's and Keith's - was posted to the CBS Survivor Twitter Feed at about that same time and deleted soon afterward. Missing from the photo were the still-flaming torches of the three finalists that we would see with them onstage later in the evening ...

G

Note: Just in case the link no longer works, the KingAras thread, titled Could This Be The Final Three?, can be found at Sucks in its Spoiler forum.

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12-18-14, 06:27 PM (EST)
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108. "SOTS | PostShow Hindsight"
Well, a satisfying end was had. It was pretty clear from the Jeremy boot forward that Natalie was going to be a major force for the finals and eventually the win.
JP's comments about someone sneaking into the finals didn't seem to match Natalie's performance but certainly explains Jaclyn's presence in the F3, and to come in second place? Who'da thunk it?
Certainly not Keith, who from the very get-go was near the top of the confessional totem pole and witnessed the confessional hogs come and go, Dale replaced by Josh, replaced by Jeremy, replaced by Jon and finally Keith was in the lead for the finale. Shoulda known that Keith was gonna fall too. Baylor was a close second to Keith for most of the season, while Natalie's started at the bottom and slowly worked her way up.
Often times the blindsides were overhyped and despite being open about the boot story, we were led into believing they wouldn't be that obvious...normally. We were misled. Speaking of being misled... (Granted it was merely presented, we were responsible for our own thoughts regarding its truthiness.)
Dear TJ, it is a bad thing when given bad information.I still adore you. Surely your bases are covered and I encourage anyone with info in the future to share...unfortunately it wasn't correct this season but it could be at some future point.
But aside from the hiccup, the sources remained hidden...even JE was fed (and dispersed) wrong info all season. The spoilers didn't get too much that CBS didn't hand out themselves. Alas, it was CBS that spoiled the F3, 3 hours before airing. But that didn't ruin it for me.

See you all next season for blue.white.no collar, World's Apart!

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