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"S29 Confessionals Tracker"
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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-14, 09:09 PM (EST)
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"S29 Confessionals Tracker"
LAST EDITED ON 09-29-14 AT 09:11 PM (EST)

The thread for all things confessionals! And tracking. And once again no main title credits for all those unimportant cast members.

Since they are doing couples crash and burn again this season:

COUPLES TRACKER

Alec/Drew
Baylor/Missy
Dale/Kelley
Jaclyn/Jon
Jeremy/Val
John/Julie
Josh/Reed
Keith/Wes
Nadiya/Natalie

This season the intro (day 0) of episode 1 is counted separately from the rest of episode 1.


episode 0 | total
Alec C 1 | 1
Baylor C 1 | 1
Dale C 1 | 1
Drew H 1 | 1
Jaclyn C 1 | 1
Jeremy H 1 | 1
John C 1 | 1
Jon H 1 | 1
Josh C 1 | 1
Julie H 1 | 1
Keith H 1 | 1
Kelley H 1 | 1
Missy H 1 | 1
Nadiya C 1 | 1
Natalie H 1 | 1
Reed H 1 | 1
Val C 1 | 1
Wes C 1 | 1

TOTEM POLE

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S29 Confessionals Tracker CTgirl 09-29-14 1
   RE: S29 Confessionals Tracker dabo 09-29-14 3
       RE: S29 Confessionals Tracker CTgirl 09-29-14 4
 Week 1 dabo 09-29-14 2
   RE: Week 1 dabo 09-30-14 5
 Week 2 dabo 10-02-14 6
 Week 3 dabo 10-09-14 7
   RE: Week 3 Georganna 10-09-14 8
       RE: Week 3 Flowerpower1 10-09-14 9
           RE: Week 3 dabo 10-09-14 10
               RE: Week 3 Outsider32 10-10-14 12
       RE: Week 3 dabo 10-09-14 11
 Week 4 dabo 10-20-14 13
   RE: Week 4 dabo 10-22-14 14
       RE: Week 4 Sheldor 10-22-14 16
   RE: Week 4 Flowerpower1 10-22-14 15
 Week 5 dabo 10-23-14 17
 Week 6 dabo 10-30-14 18
 Week 7 dabo 11-11-14 19
   RE: Week 7 Flowerpower1 11-11-14 20
       RE: Week 7 michel2 11-11-14 21
           RE: Week 7 Sheldor 11-11-14 22
               RE: Week 7 dabo 11-11-14 24
       RE: Week 7 dabo 11-11-14 23
 Week 8 dabo 11-14-14 25
 Week 9 dabo 11-21-14 26
   RE: Week 9 Brownroach 11-21-14 27
       RE: Week 9 Georganna 11-21-14 28
           RE: Week 9 Sheldor 11-21-14 30
       RE: Week 9 kingfish 11-21-14 29
   RE: Week 9 Flowerpower1 11-21-14 31
       RE: Week 9 dabo 11-21-14 32
           RE: Week 9 Sheldor 11-26-14 33
 Week 10 dabo 12-02-14 34
   RE: Week 10 Flowerpower1 12-02-14 35
       RE: Week 10 dabo 12-02-14 38
   RE: Week 10 Flowerpower1 12-02-14 36
       RE: Week 10 kingfish 12-02-14 37
 Ep11 / Ep12 dabo 12-04-14 39
   RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Flowerpower1 12-04-14 40
       RE: Ep11 / Ep12 dabo 12-05-14 41
           RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Brownroach 12-05-14 42
               RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Flowerpower1 12-05-14 43
                   RE: Ep11 / Ep12 suzzee 12-05-14 44
                       RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Brownroach 12-05-14 45
                           RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Murphy3126 12-05-14 46
                   RE: Ep11 / Ep12 dabo 12-06-14 47
                       RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Brownroach 12-06-14 49
               RE: Ep11 / Ep12 michel2 12-06-14 48
                   RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Flowerpower1 12-06-14 50
                       RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Sheldor 12-09-14 54
                           RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Sheldor 12-09-14 55
                           RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Flowerpower1 12-10-14 57
                   RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Brownroach 12-09-14 51
                       RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Murphy3126 12-09-14 52
                       RE: Ep11 / Ep12 michel2 12-09-14 53
                           RE: Ep11 / Ep12 Brownroach 12-09-14 56
 Ep 13 dabo 12-12-14 58

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CTgirl 7265 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-14, 09:15 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: S29 Confessionals Tracker"
Thanks for doing this again this season Dabo.

Seriously? Everyone had a Day 0 confessional and one other? That is different! Things will probably settle into usual patterns next week. We need some help to figure out this season CBS!

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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-14, 09:27 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: S29 Confessionals Tracker"
HI! Sorry to be confusing, everyone had a day 0 confessional each for a total of 1 after day 0. The rest of the premiere is in the week 1 post.
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CTgirl 7265 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-14, 11:53 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: S29 Confessionals Tracker"

Ha! I posted too early! Thanks again.
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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-14, 09:24 PM (EST)
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2. "Week 1"
LAST EDITED ON 09-29-14 AT 09:28 PM (EST)

Jump for joy! The old men take the lead on the totem pole! Things are actually fairly reasonably well spread, no one really jumping out yet, nice pack. Typically the editors find it easy to focus on mantalk and let the cameras find the eye candy girls.

COUPLES TRACKER

Alec/Drew
Baylor/Missy
Dale/Kelley
Jaclyn/Jon
Jeremy/Val
John/Julie
Josh/Reed
Keith/Wes
boot1/Natalie


episode 0 1 | total
Alec C 1 1 | 2
Baylor C 1 3 | 4
Dale C 1 5 | 6
Drew H 1 1 | 2
Jaclyn C 1 0 | 1
Jeremy H 1 4 | 5
John C 1 2 | 3
Jon H 1 1 | 2
Josh C 1 4 | 5
Julie H 1 1 | 2
Keith H 1 5 | 6
Kelley H 1 0 | 1
Missy H 1 2 | 3
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4 X
Natalie H 1 1 | 2
Reed H 1 1 | 2
Val C 1 3 | 4
Wes C 1 2 | 3

TOTEM POLE
Dale 6
Keith 6
Jeremy 5
Josh 5
Baylor 4
Val 4
John 3
Missy 3
Wes 3
Alec 2
Drew 2
Jon 2
Julie 2
Natalie 2
Reed 2
Jaclyn 1
Kelley 1

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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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09-30-14, 11:56 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Week 1"
hm...

Jeremy 5 Val 4 9
Keith 6 Wes 3 9
Baylor 4 Missy 3 7
Dale 6 Kelley 1 7
Josh 5 Reed 2 7
John 3 Julie 2 5
Alec 2 Drew 2 4
Jaclyn 1 Jon 2 3

Natalie 2
Nadiya (4)

Tribal boot strategy early in the previous BvW edition included booting someone regardless of individual merit in order to specifically target/upset someone on the other tribe. Could some version of that be coming again?

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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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10-02-14, 12:01 PM (EST)
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6. "Week 2"
And everybody knew ya didn't give no lip to Big John, Big Bad John

This was a very bad week for John. Got beat by a gurl. Went to Exile with Jeremy. The past caught up with him some more. Got beat by Jon. Couldn't logic out how to save Val though it was simply a matter of not voting for her! But he did find the HII.

Lot of zeroes this week, we'll see who continues their streaks next week. Front runner pack breaking away a bit.

COUPLES TRACKER

Alec/Drew
Baylor/Missy
Dale/Kelley
Jaclyn/Jon
John/Julie
Josh/Reed
Keith/Wes
boot1/Natalie
Jeremy/boot2


episode 0 1 2 | total
Alec C 1 1 0 | 2
Baylor C 1 3 1 | 5
Dale C 1 5 1 | 7
Drew H 1 1 0 | 2
Jaclyn C 1 0 0 | 1
Jeremy H 1 4 2 | 7
John C 1 2 2 | 5
Jon H 1 1 2 | 3
Josh C 1 4 3 | 8
Julie H 1 1 0 | 2
Keith H 1 5 0 | 6
Kelley H 1 0 1 | 2
Missy H 1 2 1 | 4
Natalie H 1 1 1 | 3
Reed H 1 1 0 | 2
Val C 1 3 3 | 7 X
Wes C 1 2 0 | 3

Eliminated
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE
Josh 8 ^
Dale 7
Jeremy 7 ^
Keith 6
Baylor 5
John 5
Missy 4
Jon 3 ^
Natalie 3 ^
Wes 3
Alec 2
Drew 2
Julie 2
Kelley 2 ^
Reed 2
Jaclyn 1

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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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10-09-14, 01:11 PM (EST)
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7. "Week 3"
We had a-shakin' up this week. Things are looking bad for the remaining Copoya, Big John kept switching from the Incredible Hulk to Mr. Hyde, and Drew discovered how exhausting weaving can be. Asleep at the game you might say.

Zeroes this week were Dale, Jaclyn (who hasn't had a confessional since the intro), Jon, Kelley (hitting a low pattern), and Reed (second in a row). Josh surged ahead with a high count this week (doubled his count!), splitting the honors for second were boot John, alternate Baylor, and Keith. Keith? Josh and Keith took turns at Exile. Jeremy, Josh and Keith reach double-digits. Baylor almost made it.

COUPLES TRACKER

Alec/Drew
Baylor/Missy
Dale/Kelley
Jaclyn/Jon
Josh/Reed
Keith/Wes

boot1/Natalie
Jeremy/boot2
boot3/Julie


episode 0 1 2 3 | total
Alec C 1 1 0 2 | 4
Baylor C 1 3 1 4 | 9
Dale C 1 5 1 0 | 7
Drew H 1 1 0 1 | 3
Jaclyn C 1 0 0 0 | 1
Jeremy H 1 4 2 3 | 10
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9 X
Jon H 1 1 2 0 | 3
Josh C 1 4 3 8 | 16
Julie H 1 1 0 1 | 3
Keith H 1 5 0 4 | 10
Kelley H 1 0 1 0 | 2
Missy H 1 2 1 1 | 5
Natalie H 1 1 1 2 | 5
Reed H 1 1 0 0 | 2
Wes C 1 2 0 1 | 4
Eliminated
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE
Josh 16
Jeremy 10 ^
Keith 10 ^
Baylor 9 ^
Dale 7
Missy 5
Natalie 5 ^
Alec 4 ^
Wes 4
Drew 3 ^
Jon 3
Julie 3 ^
Kelley 2
Reed 2
Jaclyn 1

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Georganna 327 desperate attention whore postings
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10-09-14, 02:23 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Week 3"
LAST EDITED ON 10-09-14 AT 04:52 PM (EST)

Keith?

I think that Keith may well win this Game.

And, if he does, I'll offer this as the Winning Quote:

Give me a day or two and we’ll figure all this out ...
... see what happens.

And thank you, once again this Season, for the
Confessional thread.

Edited to complete and correct quote and to
add: One comparison - the unflappable Sandra.


G

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Flowerpower1 533 desperate attention whore postings
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10-09-14, 02:54 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Week 3"
Hiya G! I don't know if our red flaggie problem is solved yet or not so I am responding to your post in the thread, sorry! Could you please post that quote of Keith's in the editing thread as well, because this week really brought a lot to my attention with the editing and Keith, being one of the very most likable guys in this season really is starting to stand out a bit more each week, imo...thanks! I have a lot more to respond to regarding it, but should do it in that thread. Thanks, and THANK YOU, dabo, for doing and maintaining this thread. I may not always post in here, but I ALWAYS read it!

~FloPo


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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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10-09-14, 10:20 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Week 3"
I would say the signs are turning against Hunahpu now, if only temporarily. Drew the Yawn has now become the prospective quit. Whether that results in a two-boot week or a quit week with no boot (since they had to drop a 10th and 2-female couple right before the start of the game for medical reasons), prospective future episode airing would favor a quit only week.

That said, Drew quitting at the Arena would make for a meh week.

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Outsider32 182 desperate attention whore postings
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10-10-14, 02:40 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Week 3"
Someone said over at Sucks they didn't think Drew would quit because of his brother holding it over his head the rest of his life if he did.
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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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10-09-14, 10:22 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Week 3"
YW. And oh yeh Sandra is th' one I luv th' most.
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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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10-20-14, 12:36 PM (EST)
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13. "Week 4"
The boot story dominated the confessionals, but at least it was a hilarious boot story of how to gufu up your own game and taunt the spirit of Survivor hubris. Zeroes this week were Josh (surprising, alarming?), Missy, Reed (three in a row), and Wes. With the boot focus this week going H Reed's continued silence may be a bad omen; couple Josh/Reed having mutual zeroes could be a big red flag. With the switch-up coming can we expect another high boot story confessional count? Breaking double-digits this week: Baylor. Top 5 on the totem pole retain their spots.

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Dale/Kelley
Jaclyn/Jon
Josh/Reed
Keith/Wes

boot1/Natalie
Jeremy/boot2
boot3/Julie
Alec/boot4


episode 0 1 2 3 4 | total
Alec C 1 1 0 2 2 | 6
Baylor C 1 3 1 4 2 | 11
Dale C 1 5 1 0 1 | 8
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11 X
Jaclyn C 1 0 0 0 1 | 2
Jeremy H 1 4 2 3 3 | 13
Jon H 1 1 2 0 2 | 5
Josh C 1 4 3 8 0 | 16
Julie H 1 1 0 1 1 | 4
Keith H 1 5 0 4 2 | 12
Kelley H 1 0 1 0 2 | 4
Missy H 1 2 1 1 0 | 5
Natalie H 1 1 1 2 1 | 6
Reed H 1 1 0 0 0 | 2
Wes C 1 2 0 1 0 | 4
Eliminated
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4


TOTEM POLE

Josh 16
Jeremy 13
Keith 12
Baylor 11
Dale 8
Alec 6 ^
Natalie 6 ^
Jon 5 ^
Missy 5
Julie 4
Kelley 4 ^
Wes 4
Jaclyn 2 ^
Reed 2

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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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10-22-14, 01:41 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Week 4"
So, according to the press release this week, after the swap three blood pairs are reunited on one tribe with a misfit. That means the other two remaining blood pairs are on the other tribe, or one on the other tribe and one remaining divided.

So, given that two remaining blood pairs on new tribes of seven could combine forces to control the next vote-out, either both tribes have at least two blood pairs, or only one has three blood pairs with the other having one and the remaining blood pair still being separated? What can we discern from confessional counts if anything?

Josh(16)/Reed(2) 18
Baylor(11)/Missy(5) 16
Keith(12)/Wes(4) 16
Dale(8)/Kelley(4) 12
Jaclyn(2)/Jon(5) 7

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Sheldor 550 desperate attention whore postings
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10-22-14, 03:37 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Week 4"
Dabo I think you mean "Pairs of Loved Ones" not "Blood Pairs"

Press Release
"one castaway is stranded on a tribe with three pairs of loved ones"

So yes, there are 5 pairs of Loved Ones but only 3 Blood Pairs (Baylor/Missy, Keith/Wes, and Dale/Kelley)

Interesting to see their combined confessional counts.

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10-22-14, 07:58 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Week 4"
Here is how I see the confessionals at this point in the game...

Alec's arc has begun. I am sure it was fueled by his brothers impending boot. Right now it is stable...safe.
Baylor has been consistently heard from in every episode, clearly signifying she is either a longer term player, or, her arc is early in the season. If it were to be early in the season arc, she could have a peak like last week, followed by a sharp decline or boot. But, couple her confessionals with her story line, (about to be re-coupled with her positively edited mom), and it's more apparent that Baylor is a long term player...safe.
Dale: Dale had a strong first episode, but he triumphed and started the fire, while getting in the majority alliance. He flew under the radar with the Rocker drama now he eases back in...couple that with his only confessional last week being about how he could be toast. This could be the beginning of the end for Dale, or not. *He is a boot candidate.
Drew: The classic under the radar till his boot episode, aka the hidden boot.
(This could be what Dale's arc may look like as well if he were to go this ep).
Jacklyn: She really has had no story yet, but she has been present in vidcaps. She got one conf last ep re: EI. This is either the beginning of her story arc, or she could be out and insignificant to the story...So, she could be a possible boot candidate as well.
Jeremy: Clearly, as Baylor is, he's consistent and part of the overall story. He looks like a long term player to me, significant to the story. If he were to dip below the radar suddenly, or have a big spike, it could either be due to his pertinence to the action, or signal his boot. I think Jeremy is in good standing.
Jon: Jon has had a subtle consistant edit. He dipped under the radar for the Rocker episode, then when the action was at Hunahpu he resurfaced. Could be a beginning of an arc, or he's staying consistent? I don't look at him flying under the radar then coming back with 2 confessionals as a spike, it's consistent with his previous edit. Safe.
Josh: Josh is another player that has been vital to the beginning of this story. He was integral to the beginning episodes for his tribe. After the Rocker vote out, he dips way down, under the radar. We know that his tribe will not go to TC next week, and he'll be reunited with his partner. We'll see what happens to Josh, but I see him as a more meaty character of the season. There is always a chance he may not be, and instead could be a meaty character to the beginning of the story...time will tell. We know he's safe for the next episode.
Julie: She is very consistent with a subtle presence throughout the story. No change, on the IC winning tribe, safe.
Keith: Keith has been consistently present, falling under the radar in the episode he did not go to EI. He's important to the story, has the HII. I see him as a longer term player at this point as well. He has a dip in his confessionals which could signal trouble, I am sure as the only single at NuCoyopa he will be in the spotlight a bit. I expect to see a spike this episode. This dip before the next episode could spell trouble, however. So, I will put him as a candidate for the boot.
Kelly: Kelly has a consistent edit, but had a small spike in the last one. She could be in trouble...she's all over the promos, she had a small spike, which could signal her arc has begun. I see her as a boot candidate.
Missy: Consistant edit, under the radar with confessionals last ep but strong presence, safe.
Natalie: Consistant, safe.
Reed: Consistant, safe. I see him as insignificant to the story thus far, if nuHunahpu were to go to TC, he could be at risk.
Wes: Has a consistent edit so far, safe.

At risk for boot: Dale, Kelly, Jacklyn, Keith. (Ok, it's the majority of tribe! ;-/


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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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10-23-14, 10:22 AM (EST)
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17. "Week 5"
Swap time, and things got tricky for both tribes. Josh shot down hopes of gay porn sneaking out of the Survivor footage this season with his conservative abstinence until marriage talk, but on the plus side J&J heated things up at Coyopa with Jaclyn honestly openly excited about getting to sleep with pumped up Jon. Surprisingly little movement on the totem pole, though, and Reed even managed to maintain parity with Jaclyn as the bottom-feeders. Natalie is our lone zero of the week, as Dale reaches double digits.

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Jaclyn/Jon
Josh/Reed
Keith/Wes

boot1/Natalie
Jeremy/boot2
boot3/Julie
Alec/boot4
Dale/boot5


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 | total
Alec CH 1 1 0 2 2 2 | 8
Baylor CC 1 3 1 4 2 2 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 | 10
Jaclyn CC 1 0 0 0 1 2 | 4
Jeremy HH 1 4 2 3 3 4 | 17
Jon HC 1 1 2 0 2 4 | 9
Josh CH 1 4 3 8 0 3 | 19
Julie HH 1 1 0 1 1 1 | 5
Keith HC 1 5 0 4 2 2 | 14
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6 X
Missy HC 1 2 1 1 0 1 | 6
Natalie HH 1 1 1 2 1 0 | 6
Reed HH 1 1 0 0 0 2 | 4
Wes CH 1 2 0 1 0 1 | 5
Eliminated
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Josh 19
Jeremy 17
Keith 14
Baylor 13
Dale 10
Jon 9 ^
Alec 8
Missy 6 ^
Natalie 6
Julie 5
Wes 5
Jaclyn 4
Reed 4

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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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10-30-14, 04:11 PM (EST)
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18. "Week 6"
LAST EDITED ON 10-30-14 AT 04:16 PM (EST)

No status change on the couple tracker this week. At least Dale and Kelley get to spend some quality time together on an all expense paid Survivor Vacation to like Cuba or EPMB's private island.

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Jaclyn/Jon
Josh/Reed
Keith/Wes

boot1/Natalie
Jeremy/boot2
boot3/Julie
Alec/boot4
boot6/boot5

Jon replaces Dale in double-digit land this week. Totem Pole movement has Jeremy taking over top spot, Julie bumping up slightly, Reward champ Reed leaving Jaclyn alone at the bottom, and Missy making a big jump (two weeks of upward mobility). Natalie nearly zeroed but got some DAW time for volunteering herself to Exile, while Jaclyn, Baylor and Wes zeroed out. I think if we added up all the words and camera hogging this time the Probster actually got the biggest chunk of it all. Did you notice how all the others had to keep quiet during the RC while JP prompted the runners as much as he wanted, I mean it was sooooo obvious.


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 | total
Alec CH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 | 9
Baylor CC 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13 X
Jaclyn CC 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 | 4
Jeremy HH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 | 22
Jon HC 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 | 12
Josh CH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 | 20
Julie HH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 | 7
Keith HC 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 | 15
Missy HC 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 | 9
Natalie HH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 | 7
Reed HH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 | 5
Wes CH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 | 5
Eliminated
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Jeremy 22 ^
Josh 20
Keith 15
Baylor 13
Jon 12
Alec 9
Missy 9 ^
Julie 7 ^
Natalie 7
Reed 5 ^
Wes 5
Jaclyn 4

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11-11-14, 10:55 AM (EST)
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19. "Week 7"
Huyopa! It's an old and revered name, it means: I see dumb people.

Merge Week! The week in which Jeremy did not complain about having to haul all the reward goodies up a steep trail, and in which Keith won an Individual Immunity but was denied the experience of sitting at Tribal with everyone knowing for a change that he had individual immunity.

Things have shaped up nicely for a clash at the top of the totem pole. Natalie zeroed this week, as did Alec but he really got going with his hate-on boorish side. Baylor again loses ground to Missy. Double digits: Missy, quitter.

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Jaclyn/Jon
Josh/Reed
Keith/Wes

boot1/Natalie
Jeremy/boot2
Alec/boot4
boot3/quit7
boot6/boot5


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 | total
Alec CHH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 | 9
Baylor CCH 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 1 | 14
Jaclyn CCH 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 | 6
Jeremy HHH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 6 | 28
Jon HCH 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 4 | 16
Josh CHH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 7 | 27
Julie HHH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 6 | 13 Q
Keith HCH 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 4 | 19
Missy HCH 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 3 | 12
Natalie HHH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 | 7
Reed HHH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 | 6
Wes CHH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 | 7
Eliminated
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Jeremy 28
Josh 27
Keith 19
Jon 16
Baylor 14
Missy 12 ^
Alec 9
Natalie 7
Wes 7 ^
Jaclyn 6 ^
Reed 6

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11-11-14, 06:33 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Week 7"
Thanks for posting this, dabo! Gosh this is a tough one. I am sold on the boot being either Alec or Josh, and both would fit the bill. Josh had a huge spike in confessionals last ep, and that could indeed signify his impending boot, while Alec went under the radar with a zip last ep, which could make him a "surprise" boot. Tough call!

Interesting to note that Keith and Wes both nad spikes in their confessionals, and Jeremy as well, but not by much. Jeremy's arc is in full swing, I think. We'll see! Thanks!


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11-11-14, 07:16 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Week 7"
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-14 AT 07:17 PM (EST)

First of all, thank you for compiling this, Dabo. It's a very nice tool to have.

I noticed that the spike in confessional isn't really useful this season because the peak happens in the last episode. Only Dale had more confessionals in an earlier episode but that was well before his boot. Many players had only 2 confessionals in their ext to last episode.

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11-11-14, 07:58 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Week 7"
Instead of Spikes we can look at the confessional count trend for the prior 2 episodes before they were voted off:

2 Previous Episode Confessional Counts before being voted off

x->1 +1 Nadiya
1->3 +2 Val
2->2 +0 John
0->1 +1 Drew
0->2 +2 Kelley
1->2 +1 Dale
1->2 +1 Julie

2 Previous Episode Confessional Counts +0, +1, or +2

0->1 +1 Baylor
0->2 +2 Jaclyn
5->6 +1 Jeremy
3->4 +1 Jon
3->3 +0 Missy
1->1 +0 Reed
0->2 +2 Wes

2 Previous Episode Confessional Counts Outside Normal Boot Trend

1->0 -1 Alec
1->7 +6 Josh
1->4 +3 Keith
1->0 -1 Natalie
Not sure this is useful stats though.

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11-11-14, 11:07 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Week 7"
Thanks, some interesting factors here to consider. Natalie seems to have been moved to the back burner, she would have been a +0 this time had she not gone to Exile last time.
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11-11-14, 11:03 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Week 7"
You are welcome. I would not read anything into the Keith and Wes bumps this time. They were the last pair finally reunited, Wes had a birthday, and Keith won II in this episode, so it would have been curious had they not gotten the attention.

Speaking of lack of attention, Alec getting a zero stands out for me. He got his hate on and needled Julie like a juvenile passive-aggressive bully, surely he had a few colorful comments in his confessionals. But they only showed as much of him as was necessary to the Julie narrative.

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11-14-14, 01:54 PM (EST)
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25. "Week 8"
Well, the predicted clash at the top of the totem pole happened, should have listened to myself on that one. No zeroes this week, but some telling movement on the totem pole. Josh achieved parity with Jeremy on his way to the Ponderosa; Jon achieves parity with Keith; and Jaclyn leaves Reed alone on the bottom, skipping over Natalie and Wes: That is pair J&J in motion, in other words (and it appears they have once again managed to not intentionally "winkwink" place themselves in swing vote position). Baylor and Missy match and put more distance between themselves and the single digits. Alec hits double digits, Alec hits double digits!

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Jaclyn/Jon
Keith/Wes

jury8/Reed

boot1/Natalie
Jeremy/boot2
Alec/boot4
boot3/quit7
boot6/boot5


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 | total Sheldorscore
Alec CHH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 | 10 +1
Baylor CCH 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 1 3 | 17 +2
Jaclyn CCH 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 | 9 +1
Jeremy HHH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 6 3 | 31 -3
Jon HCH 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 4 4 | 20 +0
Josh CHH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 7 4 | 31 X
Keith HCH 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 4 1 | 20 -3
Missy HCH 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 3 3 | 15 +0
Natalie HHH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 | 8 +1
Reed HHH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 | 6 +0
Wes CHH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 | 7 -1
Jury
Eliminated
Julie HHH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 6 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Jeremy 31
Jon 20 ^
Keith 20
Baylor 17
Missy 15
Alec 10
Jaclyn 9 ^
Natalie 8
Wes 7
Reed 6

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11-21-14, 11:27 AM (EST)
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26. "Week 9"
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-14 AT 12:28 PM (EST)

Wow, a couple of Survivor firsts this week, WOW!

FIRST FIRST! DECAPITATION! The two players who dominated the pre-jury confessionals became the first and second members of the jury! As best as I can remember the closest we've seen to this before was in Marquesas when Boston Rob was the merge boot and then Crying John became the first juror. Does this mean we should be looking for a hidden low-key boring winner to wreck this season? Should we be looking toward the bottom of the totem pole?

SECOND FIRST! OUTRIGHT THEFT! Isn't it a rule, one of the few absolutes in Survivor, that that which is in a player's personal bag is absolutely that player's personal property and cannot be stolen? Reed swiped the HII clue from Keith's bag!!! Can we say rookie mistake, doesn't this mean automatic expulsion??? It seems not. Bummer. But at least it pulled him out of the basement.

Other interesting things that happened this week. J&J succesfully Cesternino'd again! And they are now the only J's left. Meanwhile, we once again got to see Natalie's sacrificial strategy, but this time it backfired and she lost her "Survivor Twinnie"! Will this light a fire under her butt to get her game in gear? Will J&J Cesternino her into the JennaM Zone?

No one reached double digits this week as Alec and Jaclyn zeroed. Jon takes over the top of the totem pole with the most confessionals this week, with Keith and Reed making a good show, and Baylor and Missy matching as well. Sheldorscore went negative for the first time this season.

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Jaclyn/Jon
Keith/Wes

jury8/Reed

jury9/boot2

boot1/Natalie
Alec/boot4
boot3/quit7
boot6/boot5


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 | total Sheldorscore
Alec CHH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 | 10 -1
Baylor CCH 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 1 3 2 | 19 -1
Jaclyn CCH 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 0 | 9 -3
Jeremy HHH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 6 3 4 | 35 X
Jon HCH 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 4 4 5 | 25 +1
Keith HCH 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 4 1 3 | 23 +2
Missy HCH 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 3 3 2 | 17 -1
Natalie HHH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 | 9 +1
Reed HHH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 3 | 9 +2
Wes CHH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 | 8 +0
Jury
Josh CHH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 7 4 | 31
Eliminated
Julie HHH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 6 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Jon 25 ^
Keith 23
Baylor 19
Missy 17
Alec 10
Jaclyn 9
Natalie 9 ^
Reed 9 ^
Wes 8

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11-21-14, 01:09 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Week 9"
Isn't it a rule, one of the few absolutes in Survivor, that that which is in a player's personal bag is absolutely that player's personal property and cannot be stolen? Reed swiped the HII clue from Keith's bag!!! Can we say rookie mistake, doesn't this mean automatic expulsion???

What I didn't understand is, why was Reed surprised to find the idol clue in Keith's bag? When Keith found the clue he was on EI with Josh, and shared the clue with Josh. It's reasonable to assume that Josh would have mentioned this to Reed later. Was Reed just acting, for the benefit of the others?

As for the theft, I think they are lax about what happens to the idol clues, since they are shareable anyway. (Remember when Na'onka grabbed the clue away from Kelly.) If Reed had taken the idol itself, that would have been a problem, I think.

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11-21-14, 01:29 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Week 9"
If I understood it all correctly, it was not the 'clue' to finding the HII, but rather the instructions for its use that are wrapped with the Idol itself that Reed took from Keith's bag.

So, he knew that Keith had an HII. In fact, according to Keith's Confessional later, the Idol was also in the bag.

G

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11-21-14, 04:08 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Week 9"
Georganna wrote: If I understood it all correctly, it was not the 'clue' to finding the HII, but rather the instructions for its use that are wrapped with the Idol itself that Reed took from Keith's bag.

That's correct. You can see the instructions here:

Dabo wrote: SECOND FIRST! OUTRIGHT THEFT! Isn't it a rule, one of the few absolutes in Survivor, that that which is in a player's personal bag is absolutely that player's personal property and cannot be stolen?

No. The rules do not state anything about the personal bag nor that the contents of the personal bag is private/personal property.

The original rules in 2010 said:

http://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/2010/05/survivor-rule-book/


    B. The Survivor Experience

    1. Allocation and Provisions

    (vi) The only property which will be considered private and belonging to any individual Contestant will be that individual's luxury item, if any, and personal clothing and any items given specifically to him or her by the production team. Private items may not be taken or removed except by permission of the owner-Contestant.

No mention of the Contestants bags being private property nor the contents of the bag (which players have been going through all the way back to Season 2 Outback when they went through Kel's bag looking for beef jerky).

Later we learned that the Hidden Immunity Idol is also considered private property and can not be stolen even if you find it where the Contestant hid it. It must be explicitly given away by the Contestant.

Of course several players have destroyed or damaged other player's personal clothing without being penalized...

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11-21-14, 01:41 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Week 9"
It does seem that the producers could/should tighten up on that kind of thievery a little bit. Certainly they should resist expulsion, but maybe Probst could at least out the thief at TC in front of all survivors and jury members.

They could say it's not illegal to go thru someone else's bag without their consent, but it comes with a price. And if you take anything from the bag, even food stashed from a reward, there is an additional price.

And Reed was doing a lot of play acting, such as when he acted offended at TC about the transparency of the attempts by Jeremy and Nat to gain favor when they gave up their rewards. I mean, how can one complain about the transparency of an enemy’s strategic move? Or would it be better in his view if they tried to hide their stratagems from him? One should be grateful for whatever transparency of motives that one can get of opposing players strategic moves.

Reed is right in thinking that (IMO) that he is in a desperate situation. He will be next to go, I think.

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11-21-14, 04:17 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Week 9"
Thanks dabo for the running totals each and every week! This week, Jaclyn and Reed's confessionals jump out at me...fwiw. Every one else looks stable, Natalie seems to have begun her arc, perhaps?

What is Sheldor's score? Thanks

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11-21-14, 08:50 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Week 9"
(change in) 2 Previous Episode Confessional Counts before being voted off

http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=8240&forum=DCForumID2&omm=22

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11-26-14, 08:32 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Week 9"
You can stop keeping track of the confessionals in the Previous 2 Episodes before the boot. It was pretty consistent through Julie

x->1 +1 Nadiya
1->3 +2 Val
2->2 +0 John
0->1 +1 Drew
0->2 +2 Kelley
1->2 +1 Dale
1->2 +1 Julie

But now it was +6 for Josh and -3 for Jeremy

1->7 +6 Josh
6->3 -3 Jeremy

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12-02-14, 01:32 AM (EST)
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34. "Week 10"
And boot Wes is our lone zero this week: yes he got his donut-bugger, and we all got to learn about his nugget champeenship. Yawn. And Probst's bacon!!!

Meanwhile, everyone else on the bottom of the pole finally made it to double digits.. barely.. In Idol Tales!

Two HIIs were smartly played correctly, but a third was found and smartly kept unplayed. What a great week!

This coming week has two episodes, two boots, so the confessional tracker has probably reached the end of it's usefulness for this season, at least for boots. As for potential season winner, we seem to be looking at the lower end of things this time. Jaclyn is back on the bottom and probably has no chance, but Reed and Natalie and even Alec (though his confessional seemed somewhat pointless) are in the running.

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Jaclyn/Jon

Keith/jury10
jury8/Reed

jury9/boot2

boot1/Natalie
Alec/boot4
boot3/quit7
boot6/boot5


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 | total
Alec CHH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 | 11
Baylor CCH 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 1 3 2 1 | 20
Jaclyn CCH 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 0 1 | 10
Jon HCH 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 4 4 5 2 | 27
Keith HCH 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 4 1 3 2 | 25
Missy HCH 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 3 3 2 1 | 18
Natalie HHH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 | 12
Reed HHH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 3 5 | 14
Wes CHH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 | 8 X
Jury
Jeremy HHH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 6 3 4 | 35
Josh CHH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 7 4 | 31
Eliminated
Julie HHH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 6 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Jon 27
Keith 25
Baylor 20
Missy 18
Reed 14 ^
Natalie 12 ^
Alec 11 ^
Jaclyn 10

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12-02-14, 08:27 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Week 10"
Sure looks like Reed is a goner with the confessional tracker as well. Natalie's arc has definitely begun...

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12-02-14, 02:36 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Week 10"
Agree about Natalie's arc, she is pretty much on a hidden winner/Vecepia track. Which is rare (but her HII makes a big difference). Her best bet for winning is now to end up at F3/F2 with Baylor and/or Jaclyn and/or Missy. Alec or Keith could potentially serve as goats, but she absolutely has to boot Jon and Reed, eliminate the players.
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12-02-14, 10:03 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: Week 10"
LAST EDITED ON 12-02-14 AT 10:51 AM (EST)

Thought it would be interesting to put stats up to compare prior seasons regarding confessional counts. All of the comparisons below are done at week 10.

S29 Bl v W:
Jon: 27
Keith: 25
Baylor: 20
Missy: 18
Reed: 14
Natalie: 12
Jaclyn: 10

S28 BvBvB:
Tony: 52 - Winner
Woo: 14 - 2nd Place
Kass: 26 - 3rd
Spencer: 39 - 4th
Trish: 18
Tasha: 21
Jefra: 12
Jeremiah: 11

S27 Bl v Water:
Tyson: 26 - Winner
Monica: 19 - 2nd
Gervase: 10 - 3rd
Tina: 11
Ciera: 21
Hayden: 14
Laura M: 15

S26 Caramoan:
Cochran: 33 - Winner
Dawn: 18 - 2nd
Sherri: 12 - 3rd
Reynold: 28
Malcolm: 20
Andrea: 16
Eddie: 13
Brenda: 2

S25 Philippines:
Denise: 23 - Winner
Skupin: 18 - 2nd
Lisa: 25 - 3rd
Malcolm: 36
Jonathan: 34
Abi Maria: 12
Carter: 6

S24 One World:
Kim: 22 - Winner
Chelsea: 19 - 2nd
Christina: 9 - 3rd
Troyzan: 30
Sabrina: 24
Alicia: 21
Tarzan: 10
Kat: 7

S23: South Pacific
Sophie: 11 - Winner
Coach: 39 - 2nd
Albert: 9 - 3rd
Cochran: 33
Ozzy: 30
Brandon: 22
Dawn: 15
Edna: 9
Rick: 4

S22 Redemption Island:
Rob: 43 - Winner
Phillip: 32 - 2nd
Natalie: 4 - 3rd
Matt: 21
Andrea: 11
Ashley: 9
Grant: 7

*It's clear to see in seasons where there are returners, there are favorites and "stars" of the season. So, I bolded the non-returners season.
*I also put in Italics the other Bl. v. Water season for comparison as well.
*In 4 of the seasons, the winner had the most numbers of confessionals at wk 10.
*Looking at South Pacific the winner, Sophie was really hidden, with 11 confessionals at ep 10, while Coach, Ozzy, Brandon H, and Cochran had far more, but clearly they were big personalities, favored by the producers, and stars of their show. I don't think the current season really has a big star. But, they do have a celebrity, Natalie.
*I think if there is a star of this season, it could be Keith? At least he's a featured "character"

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12-02-14, 12:00 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Week 10"
Great work FP. And very interesting.

Since there are no returning stars, Jon's position is a very positive indication of success. I think Keith (spit) is just an interesting character, and no matter how many confessionals he has, he has only an outside chance of being in F2 or F3. I would predict that he goes at F4, unless somehow he wins immunity at that IC.

The strong alliance is at the point to where someone who considers him or herself to be #5 in the alliance (maybe Nat?) could really begin to consider getting rid of one of their own. Of course, if someone did that they would blow up the alliance, and if the others caught on before the vote, he/she would be in danger, and Jeff will be asking his usual probing questions. Risky, but Nat does have a HI, so she might give it a shot.

I'm beginning to consider a Nat boot. Especially if she fumbles and her attempt to double deal is revealed. Risky, but maybe worth a try, because she has to be aware that the worst case would be a 4-4 vote, probably between her and Jon which she could win, and best case would be a Jon boot if her present alliance could somehow be persuaded to split their vote.

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12-04-14, 12:07 PM (EST)
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39. "Ep11 / Ep12"
There are few ways to do this week except to throw out the stats and let them say what they say. Heading into the penultimate episode of the season, Jon has a good chance of winning should he make F3, Natalie is coming on strong and has a good chance of winning should she pull off her big move of eliminating Jon, and if Keith gets to F3 against the odds he has a Keith-friendly jury (though he is not perceived as all that smart at the game). Jaclyn is perceived as an emotional diva but she has Jon wimpy towards her in her favor. Baylor is perceived as a brat, Missy as an older brat who cannot get along with men.

* * *

EP11

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Jaclyn/Jon

Keith/jury10

jury8/jury11
jury9/boot2

boot1/Natalie
Alec/boot4
boot3/quit7
boot6/boot5


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 | total
Alec CHH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 2 | 13
Baylor CCH 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 1 3 2 1 2 | 22
Jaclyn CCH 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 0 1 7 | 17
Jon HCH 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 4 4 5 2 5 | 32
Keith HCH 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 4 1 3 2 1 | 26
Missy HCH 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 3 3 2 1 3 | 21
Natalie HHH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 5 | 17
Reed HHH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 3 5 4 | 18 X

Jury
Wes CHH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 | 8
Jeremy HHH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 6 3 4 | 35
Josh CHH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 7 4 | 31
Eliminated
Julie HHH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 6 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Jon 32
Keith 26
Baylor 22
Missy 21
Jaclyn 17 ^
Natalie 17
Alec 13

* * *

EP12

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy
Jaclyn/Jon

Keith/jury10

jury8/jury11
jury9/boot2
jury12/boot4

boot1/Natalie
boot3/quit7
boot6/boot5


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 | total
Alec CHH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 2 2 | 15 X
Baylor CCH 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 1 3 2 1 2 4 | 26
Jaclyn CCH 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 0 1 7 3 | 20
Jon HCH 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 4 4 5 2 5 6 | 38
Keith HCH 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 4 1 3 2 1 2 | 28
Missy HCH 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 3 3 2 1 3 1 | 22
Natalie HHH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 5 8 | 25

Jury
Reed HHH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 3 5 4 | 18
Wes CHH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 | 8
Jeremy HHH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 6 3 4 | 35
Josh CHH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 7 4 | 31
Eliminated
Julie HHH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 6 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Jon 38
Keith 28
Baylor 26
Natalie 25 ^
Missy 22
Jaclyn 20

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Flowerpower1 533 desperate attention whore postings
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12-04-14, 01:39 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
WOW, these are getting good!

Jaclyn with a huge spike in ep 11, clearly the start of her arc, down to 3 in ep 12, which is still more than her norm.

More impressive is Natalie's arc that started in ep 10, first she had a spike with 3, then 5 in ep 11, then 8 in ep 12. Quickly becoming one of the stars at this point. Clearly, the conflict between Jon and Natalie is in full swing. Jon also has a spike in the arc to, with 5 confessionals in ep 11, 6 in ep 12. One of these two will outlast the other...
Clear that Jon is getting the hero edit, but does that mean he will fall short? Or, will he win?

Baylor also has a slight rise as well, up to 4. Keith and Missy are steady.

I would say the next boot will be one of Jaclyn, Jon, or Natalie. More inclined for one of the girls...fwiw. Since Jon and Nat have idols, it could possibly be Jac. Except if there is a Missy medivac?


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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-14, 00:52 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
Agree, Natalie is finishing strong no matter how things turn out for her, she will go down fighting or scrap her way to the end. As well, her determination to "get revenge" for the Jeremy blindside is not being portrayed as a negative, it is simply a motive behind her strategy.

Jaclyn did surge impressively in ep 11, but again the portrayal shows her as having game awareness. She knows she isn't in everyone's F3 plan and wants to punch her ticket to Final Tribal. But she also wants to be perceived as an equal partner with Jon, not an Amber.

Unfortunately for her, and for Baylor, they cut all ties to their original Coyopa tribemates Josh and Wes and Alec, which also distances them from Reed. Of those four Alec alone might be willing to forgive and forget.

I don't think Jon is getting quite the hero edit, more the good guy edit because in some ways he is smart and in other ways just naive.

Anyway, factors you bring up .. Let's do the math.

Numbers now do not favor splitting the vote. For all we know Day 36, the next TC, is the last time that HII's can be played for immunity. In which case anyone holding onto one might as well play it. Natalie really has no reason to play hers for anyone but herself unless she thinks she is absolutely safe, has II. Jon could play his for himself or for Jaclyn, if he thinks that gesture will help him. If Jon has II he might as well play his for Jaclyn. Keith is clearly still in the game for one reason only, to win the next IC or somehow make certain Jon does not.

How would a Missy medivac at this point in the game alter things? Too late in the game for production to do much but cancel the next TC and head right into finale mode, no two-boot ep.

Jury dynamic .. unchanged. If she were to need to be hospitalized she might not be able to do jury duty and the jury could then potentially remain a boys club to the end of the game.

Other factors to bear in mind: Missy knows about Natalie's HII but attributes it to Baylor; Missy knows about Big Moose's HII because Jon is naive.

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Brownroach 14994 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-14, 02:58 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
Everything Missy does and, especially, says, seems to be Baylor-directed. She's made no impression on me as an entity unto herself, let alone one that's trying to win the game.

Of the pairs that made it to the merge intact, each has had a dominant member in the editing, imo. Of Josh/Reed it was Josh. Of Keith/Wes it was Keith. Of Jon/Jaclyn it's Jon. And of Baylor/Missy it's Baylor. I think neither of the subsidiary pair members still there has a chance to win. They've been edited as being in the service of the dominant-in-the-editing game partner, who is supposed to be the focus of interest for the audience.

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Flowerpower1 533 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-14, 08:08 AM (EST)
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43. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
I see eye to eye with BR. Well said, Brownroach!

The thing with Natalie is that she is seemingly more and more focused on Jon, rather than winning the game. It's bothersome. She was negligible in the pre-merge game. Seen but not heard. Her arc is crazy at this point, so I question if she can win the game. As michel has noted, usually the story of the winner is from the beginning of the game and throughout. Natalie's game began when Jeremy was booted. It would be ironic if Natalie was blindsided herself while she's trying so hard to blindside someone else.

When you think about it, there are 2 candidates for a big blindside, the two with the HII's. If they don't play them, they are pretty much bluffing. If some call their bluff, they are out. I am just noting that I think Jon is wary of the others, while I think Nat is too focused on one player and a bit arrogant. I see a chance for Baylor to be the one making the big move.

I also felt during the last show that Natalie and Baylor were devious, almost a villainous edit...just my thoughts. But, Jiffy was right, it was more Natalie driven. With Jiffy's statement that Baylor is playing it great right now, not too close to get "burned", but close enough to Natalie to take some of the credit....makes me think Baylor has a chance to win this thing...wow.



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suzzee 5607 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-14, 09:43 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
Baylor? Stranger things have happened right?

Baylor's comment about Jon being like the men in Missy's life (not such a good thing) and her wanting to protect Missy from the kind of man that will hurt throughout her boot Jon discussions with Natalie was the first sign for me that Baylor was showing more maturity then we have seen so far. It was just such a switch in perception but is that a part of a journey player edit for her? Growth and maturity angle? Or something more substantial.

I really felt Jon is being portrayed as a someone that is unaware of how he appears to others and that can only do well with a mother figures support and validation. First in Missy then Jaclyn and then comment Jaclyn made about Jon always having to get direction from his own mother made me rethink his chances.


I should be watched....closely.

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Brownroach 14994 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-14, 02:36 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
I agree with your assessment of Jon. I think Baylor is an absolute lock for F3 -- I just can't see what combination she could beat, though. Her F3 mates would have to have done something really vile for the jury to give 1 mil to a 20-year old cheerleader who has apparently been a source of annoyance much of the time.

Addressing FloPo's observations about Natalie: she does seem monomaniacally focused on Jon, and getting him out is a good move, but why? is the question. Is it just for revenge on Jeremy as the hype keeps on stressing? That would be a bit short-sighted.

I think the first half was deliberately edited as the Josh and Jeremy show, so I'm not too concerned about any players having taken a back seat there. As Josh and then Jeremy were being taken out, the other players started coming into sharper relief. That was intentional, imo, in light of the way Probst has talked about this season.

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Murphy3126 182 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-14, 04:42 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
LAST EDITED ON 12-05-14 AT 04:50 PM (EST)

and yet Natalie did tell Jon to play his idol. I think Natalie will put her desire to win the million above her desire for revenge, she already has once resulting in Wes out. It does make me wonder why CBS keeps showing her desire for revenge? Maybe it leads to her downfall?

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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-14, 02:19 AM (EST)
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47. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 10:06 AM (EST)

I have to disagree with the Natalie "was negligible in the pre-merge game." Her twin, Nadiya, was the first boot, which threw her some sympathy quite early; even Missy was on board with the "wow, losing your twin like that has got to hurt bad." As well, she was quite vocal when John Rocker's past came out, and succeeded in what could be considered her first revenge move on trash-talking to motivate the John Rocker boot.

Admittedly, though, her story took a backseat after the John boot until after the Jeremy boot. (But as I noted above, Josh and Jeremy dominated the pre-jury game, but then became the first and second juror.)

In any event, I have noted over the years that there are a few things common to how jurors vote at the end for a winner. One of those commonalities is that most jurors tend to favor, given the choice, someone from their original tribe. The major exception to that rule is when the initial tribes are determined by gender, male v. female.

As well, each juror always votes however it makes him or her to feel best to vote. This is an extremely gray area, but if you go through the past and the explanations presented, some jurors prefer to give the nod to whoever they believe beat them at the game, some jurors prefer to give the nod to whoever may have the best sob story, some jurors will give their vote to whoever they like the best or consider the friendliest or whatever.

Very difficult to predict, those jurors.

But I will be amazed if Baylor can overcome her negatives and talk herself into a win at final tribal. That would be amazing and awesome.

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Brownroach 14994 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-14, 04:38 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-14 AT 00:18 AM (EST)

Baylor, not Bailey. If you're going to insult her, please get her name right. (Probably you were a victim of the despised Auto-Correct.)😊

Oh, I see you fixed it.

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michel2 476 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-14, 03:03 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
"Everything Missy does and, especially, says, seems to be Baylor-directed."

I can't agree with that. A big part of Missy's story revolves around Jon and how he sees her as his mom while she sees him as someone she can beat in the finals. Missy also has a strong connection with Natalie while Keith still talks to her.

If Baylor tells her mom about Natalie's plans, Missy will be in a prime position to save her "son" and take him to the F3 where Jon, who is both lazy and entitled, is now certain to lose. Of course, that's if she is tough enough to play with a bum ankle.

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Flowerpower1 533 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-14, 10:35 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
I have always considered the Missy-Jon relationship the important one this season. He is eating out of her hands, literally and physically! Now we got 2 confessionals that spelled it out for us. One from Jon, I'm a momma's boy, and the other from Jaclyn....Missy is that maternal influence on him here, and I am mad about it, as he is telling Missy once again that he has the idol...Loved how Natalie was seen looking behind her, watching her back as she went into the water...she did look vulnerable for once out there!

This is what it will come down to. I think Missy can manipulate Jon more than she can Natalie, and she knows it. She tagged Jon a long time ago...as Michel noted, he's running through people and burning bridges.

Notice that we did not get a confessional after Natalie proposed the F3 with Baylor and Missy from Missy. However we did get one from Natalie, that she'll be a shoe in to win with them!

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Sheldor 550 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 10:34 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
Flowerpower wrote: "Notice that we did not get a confessional after Natalie proposed the F3 with Baylor and Missy from Missy."

Here is an Bonus Video of Missy talking about Natalie and going to the Final 3 with Natalie

Survivor : San Juan Del Sur - She’s A Heck Of A Player
Missy complements one of her tribe mates.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1UauIQVme8


Truly it is interesting to me how you can put your trust in people in this game but the one person that I know, I mean that I REALLY know that has stuck with me through thick and thin is Natalie. We have this amazing relationship and it so cool because she's got this relationship now with my daughter and... That's not going to waver. I mean, the only, the question of are Jon and Jaclyn wavering? I don't know because he has two. Without Natalie having her sister here, it's been such precious moments for she and I. For me to have this middle daughter to come into my life and REALLY believe her. I mean she’s a heck of a player. She’s a heck of an athlete. She like blows me away. I thought I was a strong women... Oh My Gosh! I mean, I'm talking athleticism, self-discipline, mental like push that I've never seen before in my life. She's like a war horse.

I know for a fact that I want to be in the end with Natalie regardless. Um, and for me and Baylor to be there that really was our pipe dream from the beginning. So... it's kind of fun you know. She supports it yet she is also looking out for herself. She wants to win this game too just like I do. I mean I'm not going to be stupid and say: "Oh yeah no she's helping me win" I mean, Come On! We both want to win. Um, and we both have great arguments. And that's cool. It's neat to though have... It's like having your best bud, although we're not the same age but your best friend is playing on your opposing team. You're on the soccer field. You want to cream them! You do! Man you want to get around them and you want to score as many goals as you can score but at the end of the game if she won I would want to high five her! I mean, I'd be her champion and she'd be mine too. So... that's pretty cool.

Going to the end with Baylor would be what we said we were going to do from the start and so you know you finish what you start kind of thing. I never really dreamed it would happen. Man we're close. I mean we're getting there! It's like whew! Shaving off people left and right and we're at seven and that is nuts to me. It's like wow! Pretty cool stuff.

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Sheldor 550 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 10:58 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
Survivor : San Juan Del Sur - Final 3
Baylor talks about her plans for the final 3 people in the game

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxU-xI9I6fo

<...> So over dinner and our amazing food (and me stuffing my face). We talked about going to the top three together, my Mom, me and Natalie and it was freaking cool. Natalie and I obviously started to really trust each other when we found the idol together and dug it together and didn't tell my Mom and all that. So, we came to her while we were having dinner and we ended up telling my Mom about the idol and she freaked out and screamed and we all had a girl scream moment.

So, when we talked about going to the Final 3 at dinner. It was a cheers and it was kind of a pinky promise, hand shake, we are going to try to do this. That doesn't necessarily mean we can because sometimes this game can be completely out of your hands.

So it's going to be risky for me and my Mom to go into the Final 3 together if we can but I'd rather do it with her and Natalie than anybody else.


Survivor : San Juan Del Sur - Our Relationship Is Cool
Baylor talks about her relationship with Natalie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4dZx48mtJQ

Yeah Natalie and I's relationship is really cool at this point in the game because ever since my Mom had to go kind of behind Natalie's back with the Jeremy vote I kind of stepped in was able to be there for her as a sister in a way, or as a twin, because that's the only thing she is used to really. So yeah, I think me and Natalie are kind of Survivor Sisters at this point and we have a really cool trusting relationship. I don't know if she tells me everything that she, you know, does or the way she's playing this game but she tells me a sure heck of a lot more than Jon and Jaclyn do and even my Mom kind of in a way which is interesting but Natalie's really cool. I love playing this game with her. I feel like I can have fun playing this game with her. Whether or not she's really telling me the truth or not I enjoy having her around and being crazy with her.

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Flowerpower1 533 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-14, 00:13 AM (EST)
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57. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
Ohhhhh, this is a great find, Sheldor! Thanks so much for posting! This is exactly how I thought she would talk about her relationship with Natalie. She is very aware of her athletic and mental talents....they are great friends, but I am not convinced that Natalie is a solid F3 partner with Missy. I think Missy has options though, and that is always a great thing. It will be about who she thinks she can beat, and she did tell us that she thought she could be Jon, more or less, as he is plowing through people and burning bridges.

But, at this point he still has a partner in the game, as she notes. Options!


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Brownroach 14994 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 00:57 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 01:23 AM (EST)

she sees him as someone she can beat in the finals

Did Missy actually say this about Jon? Is there a quote somewhere? I don't recall it. Why wouldn't she want to take Jaclyn and Baylor to F3? That would be Missy's best-case scenario.

I suspect she wants to keep Jon around because, to paraphrase Jeremy, she makes bad decisions when it comes to men. Jon is shown as having faults - but he found two HIIs, will have won at least one IC, and is acknowledged by the current jury members to be playing the game hard. In a Jon/Missy/Baylor F3, I think Jon would have to really mess up in front of the jury in order to lose. Which of course is always possible. 😊

ETA: A big part of Missy's story revolves around Jon and how he sees her as his mom

I actually see that as being mostly part of Jon's story.

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Murphy3126 182 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 08:28 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
>"ETA: A big part of Missy's story revolves around Jon and how he sees her as his mom.
>
>I actually see that as being mostly part of Jon's story."
>

I 2nd that. Missy seems to have been a bit of a Mom to many of them, but that's not going to get in the way of her or Baylor's chance of winning the million.

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michel2 476 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 09:00 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 09:00 PM (EST)

>she sees him as someone she
>can beat in the finals

>
>
>Did Missy actually say this about
>Jon? Is there a
>quote somewhere? I don't
>recall it. Why wouldn't
>she want to take Jaclyn
>and Baylor to F3? That
>would be Missy's best-case scenario.

Yes, it was at the end of episode 9, just before the TC where they sent Jeremy packing. She said it about Jon and Jaclyn.

Missy: "...Now may be the time to take out Jeremy but you know, it’s interesting because I watched Jon and Jaclyn barrel through some people so far and they have no problem pissing people off."

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Brownroach 14994 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-14, 11:13 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Ep11 / Ep12"
Fair enough, but that seems like Missy's impression of Jaclyn and Jon at that particular moment. It's not exactly the same as saying she thinks she can beat Jon at F3, imo. Isn't Jaclyn the more beatable of the two? I don't get why she would be so stuck on Jon for strategic reasons.
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dabo 26604 desperate attention whore postings
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12-12-14, 11:55 AM (EST)
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58. "Ep 13"
And once again we see a decapitation of the totem pole, but no motion otherwise. No zeroes, but Jaclyn and Missy each had only 2 confessionals this time.

COUPLES TRACKER

Baylor/Missy

Jaclyn/jury13
Keith/jury10

jury8/jury11
jury9/boot2
jury12/boot4

boot1/Natalie

boot3/quit7
boot6/boot5


episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 | total
Baylor CCH 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 1 3 2 1 2 4 4 | 30
Jaclyn CCH 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 0 1 7 3 2 | 22
Jon HCH 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 4 4 5 2 5 6 4 | 42 X
Keith HCH 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 4 1 3 2 1 2 4 | 32
Missy HCH 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 3 3 2 1 3 1 2 | 24
Natalie HHH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 5 8 4 | 29
Jury
Alec CHH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 2 2 | 15
Reed HHH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 3 5 4 | 18
Wes CHH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 | 8
Jeremy HHH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 6 3 4 | 35
Josh CHH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 7 4 | 31
Eliminated
Julie HHH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 6 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4

TOTEM POLE

Keith 32
Baylor 30
Natalie 29
Missy 24
Jaclyn 22

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