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"S28 | State Of The Spoiling | F8 to the end..."
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tribephyl 10710 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

04-18-14, 02:47 AM (EST)
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"S28 | State Of The Spoiling | F8 to the end..."
LAST EDITED ON 04-18-14 AT 02:52 AM (EST)

Before I let loose the compilation for the current week, let me use this introductory space to familiarize ourselves with the general flow of the State Of The Spoiling.

The intention of this thread is to give weekly compilations of spoiling materials to help predict the outcome of the show, it's rewards, idols, immunities and bootees.
How we get there is usually by gleaning information from the mouth of JP, other castaways, vidcaps, editing, tweets, whatever it takes, trying to lay it out in a sensible manner and then quickly turn around and post a Hindsight topic to help figure out where we went so wrong. This is something we've had to do A LOT this season. So there's plenty of work to be done.

To begin that work, I suggest another visit to some of the links below. All curated by devoted folks who love nothing more than some attention.
* If you don't want to know, don't go, but it's still Bootlist-free... S28 Sources Thread
* A one-stop for all things confessional... Dabo's Confessionals Tracker
* If the editing is your gig... michel's Characters and Stories
* Seek out some postulations on future images... FloPo's VidCap Re-examination
* Look to the expertise of Astrological comparisons in Georj's Signs of Survival

Along with the DAWS above, we also have a dedicated cadre or is that posse, that get things done to help build this one.
* Be sure to make your hunches heard in the weekly VidCap Analysis and Title, Tweets and Teases threads.
* Don't forget to visit the Time to Vote thread. It's been a great season for doling out the congratulations for the great picks.
* Make sure to catch the ECST. It's my one-stop, 3 hours before the show.

Thank you in advance for breathing life into the SOTS this season.
The season itself has been very enjoyable without a true Source, I hope this trend continues.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Spy Sh... tribephyl 04-23-14 1
   RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Sp... Outsider32 04-23-14 2
   RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Sp... suzzee 04-23-14 3
       Chick Corea? suzzee 04-23-14 5
   RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Sp... __Corea 04-23-14 4
       RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Sp... suzzee 04-23-14 6
   RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Sp... Flowerpower1 04-23-14 7
       RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Sp... CTgirl 04-23-14 8
   Retrospect... Flowerpower1 04-24-14 10
       RE: Retrospect... CTgirl 04-24-14 11
       RE: Retrospect... suzzee 04-24-14 12
 RE: S28 | State Of The Spoiling | F... RachelOH1 04-23-14 9
 Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Friend tribephyl 04-29-14 13
   RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Fri... QuickBen 04-29-14 14
       RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Fri... Murphy3126 04-29-14 15
           RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Fri... QuickBen 04-29-14 16
           RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Fri... Georganna 04-29-14 18
   RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Fri... CTgirl 04-29-14 17
       RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Fri... tribephyl 04-30-14 19
   Retrospect Flowerpower1 05-01-14 20
       RE: Retrospect Murphy3126 05-01-14 21
           RE: Retrospect PepeLePew13 05-01-14 22
               RE: Retrospect Flowerpower1 05-01-14 24
                   RE: Retrospect Brownroach 05-01-14 28
       RE: Retrospect CTgirl 05-01-14 23
           RE: Retrospect dabo 05-01-14 25
               RE: Retrospect Brownroach 05-01-14 26
               RE: Retrospect Murphy3126 05-01-14 27
       Ep 10 Retrospect tribephyl 05-01-14 29
           RE: Ep 10 Retrospect QuickBen 05-02-14 30
 Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak tribephyl 05-06-14 31
   RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak Outsider32 05-06-14 32
       RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak Murphy3126 05-06-14 33
           RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak Outsider32 05-06-14 34
               RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak Murphy3126 05-06-14 35
                   RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak Outsider32 05-07-14 36
   RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak Murphy3126 05-07-14 37
   RE: Ep. 11 Retrospect suzzee 05-08-14 38
       RE: Ep. 11 Retrospect tribephyl 05-09-14 39
 Ep. 12 | SOTS | Straw That Broke Th... tribephyl 05-13-14 40
 Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die tribephyl 05-20-14 41
   RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die mimo 05-20-14 42
   RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die suzzee 05-21-14 43
   RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die personofinterest 05-21-14 44
   RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die Brownroach 05-21-14 45
       RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die PepeLePew13 05-21-14 46
   RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die CTgirl 05-21-14 47
   RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die Outsider32 05-22-14 48

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tribephyl 10710 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-14, 00:16 AM (EST)
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1. "Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Spy Shack"
Ep9 Evidence
Title:
Sitting in my Spy Shack

Next time on Survivor...

Teases:
* Homesick castaways are granted a brief reprieve with letters from home.
* One castaway secretly embarks on a stakeout to gather intel from the competition.
* Another castaway falls hard while attempting to collect coconuts papayas from the treetops.

JP hype:
Yes, Woo takes a fall… and could a letter from home change the game?

So from these alone; Looks like Woo falls out of a tree. It also is just a red herring to make people believe he might be med-evac'd out. He's not. He's a ninja. And falling 9 feet down into semi-lush (non-spiky) flora means he's just fine. Bruised ego perhaps, but only temporary.
Besides, a rapper recently chopped his ... thing ... off, then jumped out of window over 20 feet to a cement landing below and ...he survived. So trust me, Woo will be fine.

RC:
With no vidcap confirmation...
Team challenge run with 2 teams of 4.
Gender split on each team is 2 men and 2 women per team. Whether random or whatever, a spoiler (and some deductive reasoning) indicates that a 4 person team with 2 women and 2 men win the reward to Callao Caves. And if 2 men and 2 women were on the winning team, then 2 men and 2 women would also have to be on the losing team.

What's most interesting, at least from the tease and the blurb, is that some of the castaways receive letters from home.
I'm thinking, these letters will most likely be delivered at the caves.

Figuring out the RC win, for me, depended solely upon my memories of tweets. Ones which I DIDN'T add to the sources thread simply because, like the boot-lists (and we saw how those turned out), wouldn't amount to anything.
However, the farther we get into the game the more I regret not keeping some sort of record of actual tweets and dates.

Synopses....
* Jeremiah's cousin (male) has feelings about Morgan. Bad feelings. Tweeted something about Morgan, which got retweeted and liked by Jeremiah. The cousin, also, does not like Kass.
* Jeremiah ends up friending Spencer's sister. Spencer approves. So does his sister. His sister is not a friend of Kass.
* Tasha's cousin/sister seems to be particularly verbose.

Now, all of these little tid-bits of non-descript fluff don't mean a hill a beans unless real family members are involved. And wouldn't you know it, we're entering the family letters (soon to be visit) stage. It could be that all of them win the actual family visit or that all of them win letters from home. Regardless, all of them (Spencer, Tasha and Jeremiah) make it to (and most likely through) this episode. Possibly, with 2 of the 3 making F6.

From there, regarding the 2 women on the RCteam I don't remember any other tweets and I can't recall if any family members have jumped in.
Anyways...
So who knows what the teams will be. And at this moment we don't even know what the RC will be.
But rest assured, the Reward winners (2 males / 2 females) will get letters from home, and they'll most likely enjoy them at Callao Caves.

Onto the Individual IC:
Balancing a ball while balancing yourself.

Survivor Order (L to R): Jefra ~ Kass ~ Woo ~ Jeremiah ~ Tasha ~ Spencer ~ Tony ~ Trish

Each survivor starts at the top area of their personal ramp. In one of their hands they hold a pedestal with a ball on it. Keeping the ball on the pedestal is the goal. Once every 15 or 30 minutes (or less), the survivors will step farther down their ramp where the foot area is drastically reduced from previously. The final survivor with their ball still balanced on the pedestal, and without falling off their own ramp, will win immunity.


I'd love to give you my opinion as to the winner but at this moment (after having gone through so many storyline wins and eventual losses) I really don't think it matters this week.
Perhaps Tony? I don't know how, but he seems to be the most in need at the moment.
I CAN say that Kass WON'T win. And that's something you can take to the bank.


TC Strategies:
Without making too huge of a nod to the mis-spelling...
The mis-spelling was bugging me on a strange level. I've never understood why we change it from 'verbal' to 'verbiage' in the first place. Where in the fuick did the extra i come from?

But anyways...


Tony: I couldn't tell you about LJ and...
Jefra: Can you tell me I'm on the bottom of the alliance?


Tony: I came up with the idea to make a spy shack where I can hide and I'm gonna hear everything.
Tony: Right now, my red flag is raised because I blindsided LJ. I'm in trouble, so I'm gonna have to do something to get myself out of it. Most people, including myself, we go all the way to the water well because it's a bit further away from camp where people can't hear you and that's where they talk strategy. So, I started working on some blueprints to make a nice little shack around the water well. The water well is 'here', there's a tree 'there', and I put some bushes and some shrubs and some broken branches where I can hide right in there and I'm within five feet away. That's where I'll be the most patient, when I'm sitting in my spy shack.


Tony: Today, I'm on a mission.


Jefra: You know, he lied to my face.
Jefra: I'm sorry but I don't want to be fooled by Tony.
Jefra: I don't trust Tony. I'm okay with getting him out.


Jefra: I don't feel safe with Tony.



Tony: I'm in trouble.

Tony is indeed in trouble.
However, the main protangonist in this situation seems to be Jefra.
Trish may be pissed about losing LJ. But my thought is that she isn't the one who starts the conversation between her and Jefra.
My read, from the verbiage provided, sounds like Jefra just unloads. Perhaps it's venting. Which in my book is necessary to a modern, civilized society. Sadly for her, the target can hear what she says... every word.
Maybe even Trish is saavy enough to know Tony could be listening, but my read is that Trish is just listening.
Regardless, Jefra WILL be in the crosshairs.

At this moment, Tony could have Woo, Spencer and Jeremiah... without question. Which means that Trish, Jefra, Kass and Tasha have to sway one of the boys to get the Tony snuffing done.

Intoto:
#1: I'm sticking by my thoughts that the F5 torches image is probably F5... but could be F6 or even F7. This could be my undoing. It would not be the first time.
Intoto, meaning that at least 2 brawn, 2 beauty and 1 brain make it to F7.
Which if brought down to numbers means, with only 2 beauties remaining, Jefra and Jeremiah both make, at worst, F7.
Of the 3 brains, 2 of them are in great danger of not making F5/F7.

#2: JP notes that the end-game is replete with "winning" players. He alludes that the idea that the finalists are all people that, at the least, expressed a desire for winning and have made the moves necessary to be perceived that way, by the general public. IOW, We could indeed be rooting, personally, for all 5 finalists.

To me that means the F5 (the finale episode) are all players who have expressed a desire to win. And have been playing.
To me: Tony, Trish, Spencer and Kass are the only ones to have expressed a real desire to win and have made the decisions/adapting necessary to do so. Tasha could be included in the group above only because while she hasn't had the gameplay she certainly seems to be shown as a player. Meanwhile, Jefra, Jeremiah and Woo don't seem to be long-term (or perhaps they're Journey) players.

Okay....now comes the time to credit some sources.
Simply because of this and even though none of the following is concrete... plug your ears and hide your eyes for the next paragraph-ish.

* A black female and a thin older female make late game... (makes F5)
* Tasha claims to be a victim of late 'game' changes. (Tasha is F3 bootee)
* Spencer is resentful of a lack of knowledge about the TPI. (Spencer is F4 bootee)
* A male and a female are F2. (That kinda leaves Trish and Tony? Jefra and Jeremiah? Kass and Woo?)


Survivors In Danger for Ep9:
I hate to be the first to predict it... but this episode is going to be sooooo unpredicatable that I stiiiiill have to give precautionary clauses. I absolutely positively have sucked beyond belief when predicting this season. Almost as bad at predicting as kingfish. And I swear, he's trying for baaad. I personally believe, at least this season to the nth degree, that I have NO idea what's going to happen. But I continue to try, and for this week, my bootee predictions are...

Kass ~ Spencer ~ Tasha ~ Woo

Kass: No better moment to latch on to the current theme of large 'winner' story and dump the 'has-been' plotline. We've seen a great lull in confessionals Kass and her editorial distance from the storyline will eventually lead to a boot. If nothing else, the theme of confessionals this season has been.... Big beginning... lull...bootation. Sarah suffered, Morgan suffered, LJ suffered. Time for Kass to suffer. No longer her story line. Good player though. Or at least memorable.

Woo: Aside from Jeremiah, Woo stands as the 2nd least develeoped character in Cagayan. JP states that Woo is playing the Fabio game. Well? So far, he's playing the entertainment angle. A glaring a truth of this weeks batch of ads is that the fall out of a tree is mis-direction, its clear that Woo does not suffer bodily damage. However, does he have the backing to last through TC?
Falling out of a tree could truly be his undoing, symbolically and realistically.

My Vote:


RC: Jefra, Jeremiah, Spencer and Tasha


IC: ???
*because it doesn't matter


Bootee: A Brawn (Or a Brain)
Woo (or Kass)



This week? Dedicated to __Corea.

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Outsider32 61 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-14, 01:55 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Spy Shack"
Kass has been a centerpoint the whole game though so I find it hard to see her voted out this early. She's been more emphasised than Tasha and even Trish. Tony has more airtime than her, but not Spencer. I just don't see it. But if Spencer and Jeremiah team up with Tony again Kass could go to calm Jefra down. I just hope not. And Tony isnt voting out Woo.
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suzzee 5417 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-14, 10:36 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Spy Shack"
This made me LOL. I adore the both of you <3

I absolutely positively have sucked beyond belief when predicting this season. Almost as bad at predicting as kingfish.

All that aside you do a stellar job of SOTS and bad record or not the clues support everything you've besotted us with.

The more of this season's edit I see the more I think that they have stopped playing to the hardcore speculators & dissectors and are trying to draw in the masses who like their edits of the pablum variety. Easy to swallow, nothing to chew on and sometimes pretty bland.

As for any opinions I have, I seem to do much better with WAG's (wild a$$ guesses) made at the last possible second, right between my second and third cocktail.



Corrupting teenage boys since, well,
none of your business how long...

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suzzee 5417 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-14, 10:42 AM (EST)
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5. "Chick Corea?"
Just curious. And just in case

Armando's Rhumba

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__Corea 9 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-14, 10:39 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Spy Shack"
Great post. Thanks for compiling all the family Twitter drama. I haven't paid much attention to it, but you make a good point about family visits coming soon. Perhaps there is more relevance than I initially thought.

I can't imagine Kass going this week. I would think the two alliances would target each other while each tries to scramble for Jefra and Kass's vote. Also, I think her "has-been" plotline will most likely come roaring back when her oft-ridiculed comment about it being too early for Tony to flip turns out to be accurate foreshadowing. (But, I'm a Kass fan, what can I say.)

That being said, I do think Woo will go this week. His fall in the promo, his threat perception in immunity challenges, and the brains wanting to cut down Tony without risking him playing an idol... I think all point to Woo. But, I've been wrong every episode this season.

**Also, I just noticed the week's dedication in your signature. I am assuming you are referring to the horrible tragedy. Thank you for the nod. It is a very sad time over here.

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suzzee 5417 desperate attention whore postings
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04-23-14, 10:46 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Spy Shack"
Leap of thought, I hope I didn't offend. I'm not sure what is being referred to here but I hope that as time passes all will heal. S

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04-23-14, 12:21 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Spy Shack"
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-14 AT 12:27 PM (EST)


Great job, Tribe! You have given me a lot to digest here....where shall I start?

I want to also say that with out you, our boards are barren! I love you and you are so good at all of this stuff and I agree, your assessments are very well grounded and logical to boot. You are the bomb! I hope that dang TORCH pic does indeed spell out the F5! But, I have to admit, I like suzzee's WAG theory!!!

First of all, there are shots of Trish, Tony, and Kass at camp when the "others' could be away on reward? Spec that perhaps Jefra, Tasha, and 2 of Jeremiah/Spencer/Woo win the RC.

Regarding the tweets: Jeremiah's cousin did not like Morgan....we know that Morgan did not make the family visit, therefore, his cousin also does not like Kass, so we cannot assume that Kass makes the family visit either...?

Regarding Spencer's sister and Jeremiah....I can buy that one. That they both make the family visit, F6.

Regarding the IC winner: Agreed, too little to go on. Woo could win, Trish, Tony, Tasha? Who knows?

Next, regarding Jefra. Clearly, it's Jefra calling out Tony. He lied to her face and she knows it. He identifies that getting rid of LJ makes him the bad guy within his alliance, so he needs to do something. That something is spying on his own alliance, which then confirms to him that he is indeed in trouble. He can do 2 things that I see. He can do damage control with Jefra and convince her that she is safe and still in the alliance, therefore the target would be one of Spencer/Jeremiah/Tasha, OR, he can get rid of Jefra.

If he chooses to prove to Jefra that she is still good with him, his target should be one of Spencer/Jeremiah/Tasha, but it doesn't appear that any of them are in trouble this week. The only ones that appear to be in trouble in my opinion from the promos are either Tony or Jefra. Guess who I think will outlast who?

Regarding this scenario: At this moment, Tony could have Woo, Spencer and Jeremiah... without question. Which means that Trish, Jefra, Kass and Tasha have to sway one of the boys to get the Tony snuffing done.

Agreed that Tony COULD have Woo, Spencer, Jeremiah, and Tasha. (I think Tasha will stick with Spencer and Jeremiah). Without question he has Woo. I think he will also still have Trish. Trish is his numero uno. But, the problem is I think Spencer, Jeremiah would much rather take out a BIG fish like Tony than a little fish like Jefra. If Kass makes the proposal, but I don't know if she will...yet. So, I could see Tony pulling in Woo, Jeremiah, Spencer, Tasha to vote out one of Jefra/Trish/Kass. I do not think his target is Trish at all. I don't think he thinks Kass is threatening at this point either. So I believe he will set his target as Jefra.

Next week there will be chaos when the power shifts from one former alliance to another.

Regarding the F5 Torches. With the boot of LJ last week I don't see it coming to fruition. I think there must be fallen torches on the ground when that picture was taken. We all saw what happened when Tony threw his torch at the tree....they all fell down.

I am buying into our own editing thread...Spencer stands to win it all. There is a seemingly reliable source saying that Trish and Tasha are end game. Already, there are 2 brains. I think Jeremiah's position in the game has gone up considerably after last week. Spencer is dragging him with him. I think Tony will also be there before Woo is there.

I also want to consider Jiffy's statement that the end gamers are all who have played the game...

Spec F5: Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Tony/?Kass - ?Jeremiah

This leaves Woo, Jefra and ?Kass/Jeremiah to be the next ones to go, for me.

This week with the vidcaps it is either going to be Tony or Jefra. My money is on Jefra for boot.

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04-23-14, 12:43 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Ep. 9 | SOTS | Sitting in my Spy Shack"
Again, I want to thank you Tribe for singlehandedly keeping Blows in business. Also thanks to the rest of you who post and add information. We are a shadow of our former self but we are still here and I still come here first for info!

I agree with FloPo that the torch photo is posed and not indicative of the F5 or 6.

I posted in the voting thread that I think its Jefra vs. Tony and that Tony will still have more sway with the other Survivors and Jefra gets the boot.

Rumor has it that next week's title is "Chaos is my friend." Jim Early posted it on FB but I haven't seen it anywhere else yet. It makes total sense. With a Jefra boot it would be 3 vs 3 and Kass is the swing vote again.

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04-24-14, 07:02 AM (EST)
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10. "Retrospect..."
Really, I don't think we were that far off.

We knew that the whole question of the episode would be resting on Tony. Either he worked to pull Jefra back into the alliance, and would target one of Spencer/Jeremiah/Tasha, OR, he would vote out Jefra.

He did do that. We just all thought it would be easier for him to get Jefra. But, he told us the week before that he wanted to get out LJ then go back to the old alliance. Spencer told us best..."Tony's not so predictable!" Ha!

Regarding the boot Jeremiah and the promos. Absolutely hidden. Did not appear in any of the promos. NO WHERE! With confessionals, he really had no rise or fall from previous weeks....he just had one in the week before his boot. Not atypical of his pattern all along.

This would qualify, for me, as a totally hidden boot.

This definitively puts to rest our torch theory...

Now the "villain" has the TPI! This is going to be fun!

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04-24-14, 08:57 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Retrospect..."
Maybe this pic was supposed to be our clue!

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04-24-14, 10:01 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Retrospect..."
It's like watching promo's for some other show entirely. I have to laugh at some of the suvk's speculators though, some of them have been saying Jeremiah for weeks LOL.

Agree with FP, totally hidden boot, well at least it's something different. As for Tony finding the League of Justice HII, somehow I'm not surprised.

Will Spencer's comment about voting for Tony if he's left at the end wake some of these people up?


Just call me Woo Hoo


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04-23-14, 04:33 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: S28 | State Of The Spoiling | F8 to the end..."
Thanks for the SOTS! I've just read them now....hours after I posted in the F5 torches re-examination thread. Your SOTS and the comments here contain similar tweet spoilers, etc. as I mentioned...and as I'd said there, I have been trying to reconcile those F5 torches for days... I think the only answer is the F5 torches aren't the F5 torches! Especially since so many Brains seem to make it so far... Obviously, if Jefra goes tonight, we'll know for sure.
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13. "Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Friend"
Ep10 Evidence
Title:
Chaos is My Friend

Next time on Survivor... While everyone else's mind is on the auction, Spencer uses his brain to change the game.

Teases:
* One castaway’s bidding strategy at the Survivor auction could pay off for them.
* Meanwhile, castaways draw rocks for a huge advantage in the game,
* and another castaway decides to show off his idol in an attempt to ensure his safety.

JP hype:
OH MY — one of the greatest moments in an auction — ever. And it’s another Survivor first!!

So from these alone; It appears the RC/Auction is where most of our storyline is being grabbed from. That Spencer uses his "brain" to cause paranoia with Tony, and that Tony shows off his powerful idol.

RC:

Survivor Auctions have no winner. But more often than not they do tend to karmically 'pay-off' for everyone. My guess is that Kass does poorly, while Jefra, Woo and Trish pig out. Meanwhile, Spencer bides his time and a "bidding strategy" pays off for a castaway.

Onto the Individual IC:

Inside Track is the name of it.
Castaways will start by digging in the sand to retreive a ball on a rope.
By pulling on the rope it will lead the players to additional balls buried in the sand. Once all 5 balls have been dug up the survivors will run to a table maze. The first to adjust the angle of the table maze in order to get all 5 balls to the opposite end and resting in their little "cups", wins immunity.

Immediately I insert the tease about "castaways drawing rocks for an advantage".
Does 1 player start with a 1 ball advantage? Is that really an advantage?


TC Strategies:

The ladies are trashing the guys.

Spencer is throwing a girl under the bus.

Tony Counts 4-3...

but then he counts 4-2...


Intoto:
What Tony needs to do is scare people into NOT voting for him. Which is easily done with his TPI. Regardless of the "numbers" he uses on his fingers, Tony will be in the majority.

Rest assured neither Spencer nor Tasha are part of that majority. For that matter, neither is Jefra.

Survivors In Danger for Ep10:
For this week, my bootee predictions are...

Kass ~ Jefra ~ Spencer ~ Tasha

Kass: She's been on this short list for a loooong time now. Always seemingly close to being booted, but somehow stays UTR when it comes to actual vote-targeting. Her personal story has been extra lite lately so really any moment could be good to get rid of her. However... When taking into consideration the title for Ep11 "Havoc to Wreak" I harken back to an insider clip where Kass admitted that she "wreaked havoc" prior and will again "wreak havoc" some time around F5. (Or so she says). Long story short, Kass stays alive to potentially wreak havoc in Ep 11.

Jefra: Spencer is throwing one of the women under the bus. It could be Kass, it could be Tasha, but my money is on it being Jefra. Jefra had considered siding with the brains before the last TC but went back to the brawns claiming she didn't think it would be good for her game to switch at this time. Tony is already aware that Jefra would vote for him. Is he sure she won't actually do so this week?

Spencer: Definitely on the wrong end of the numbers. And now that everyone knows he no longer has an idol, he will be a target. Now... the storyline this week seems to be Spencer-centric. He's a smarty that could possibly get Tony to over-react this week. Simply by throwing one of the girls under the bus. If it works, then Spencer lasts at least one more episode. The one thing going for him is that he is playing very hard. And the supposed finale will be full of "rootable" players. He is certainly worth the praise.

Tasha: Also on the wrong side of the numbers. She's the one heard expressing the idea of an all woman's alliance. This could be a ploy to get one of the women to openly claim an interest in targetting Tony, but Trish, Kass and Jefra seem unresponsive. Also...what if Spencer is actually tossing Tasha's name out to Tony? I doubt it but I've been surprised before. The one thing going for her is that she has proven to be a major challenge threat. Could she win the necklace this week?


My Vote:


RC: Spencer (for the strategic bidding?)


IC: Spencer, Tasha or Tony
(or moreso NOT Kass, Jefra or Trish)


Bootee:

I can't. I just can't. My brain hurts, my heart hurts, my gut hurts. I've made my predictions since the beginning and have been correct 2 out of 11 times.
However, I DO know that it WON'T be Tony or Trish.



nothing funny or interesting to add...
Oh wait...The finale blurb states that it'll begin with an F4.

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04-29-14, 05:48 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Friend"
Awesome job, as always, Tribephyl. Thank you for your time and insights.

The "drawing rocks" thing we're supposed to see this week has me thinking it must be at the auction. Perhaps two players (among, Spencer, Tasha, and Tony?) save all of their money for the "advantage" and bid simultaneously?

One thing, your post makes me feel better about my Jefra pick this week. This season, my picks have been poor here and in the long-time friends league I'm in.

But it's been a fun season to watch! And I've certainly enjoyed joining this community.

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04-29-14, 06:39 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Friend"
I agree. Spencer probably comes up with the idea of him & Tasha holding out until the final item & simultaneously bidding $500 for the advantage item along with Tony. This results in drawing rocks as Jeff can't discern who the 1st bidder was.

I'm inclined to think Spencer wins IC as these kids seem to have great focus from years of playing video games, & that is what they'll need to get the balls in place on the board.

Tony probably takes flak for his "fake idol" at last TC, & reveals it is real. I doubt he reveals the idol's "Special Powers" or he lies about it.

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16. "RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Friend"
"Tony probably takes flak for his "fake idol" at last TC, & reveals it is real. I doubt he reveals the idol's "Special Powers" or he lies about it."

Great point.

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18. "RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Friend"
takes flak


...

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17. "RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Friend"
I know. My head hurts too trying to second guess the gremlins at CBS. They have upped their game this season.

I am resigned to a Spencer boot. Tony may deserve to win but his edit is too manic and it doesn't sit right with me. They have got some major redemption to do! I am hoping something crazy happens!

However, how awesome would it be if they put 3 votes on Tony to flush the idol and 2 on Spencer/Tasha and 2 on Jefra/Woo. Tony would have to play his idol and then there would be a revote. I doubt it would get down to drawing rocks though. (This idea totally stolen from Rob. C. and Eliza Orlins on RHAP.)

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19. "RE: Ep. 10 | SOTS | Chaos is My Friend"

*crosses fingers for the RobC/Eliza theory.
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05-01-14, 07:44 AM (EST)
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20. "Retrospect"
Well, congrats to those who called it with the Jefra boot. But, frankly I was SHOCKED that Tony would be that dumb. Spencer is surely the threat while Jefra is a pawn who is not threatening at all. Clearly shows his paranoia in the game. But, I suppose with 2 idols, one of which is the TPI, he is running rampant and most likely thinks he's unbeatable. Arrogance and invincibility....still hope for Spencer.

He is playing illogically now to me. Is this his fatal flaw in the game, or does he have too much in his arsenal to lose?

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05-01-14, 10:27 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Retrospect"
LAST EDITED ON 05-01-14 AT 12:09 PM (EST)

I didn't think voting out Jeffra was dumb, Tony knew Jeffra wanted Tony out & Tony doesn't trust Kass. Not telling Trish was the bad move. She has been with him from the start. He could have lied if Trish wouldn't go along & then later said he changed his mind & didn't have time to tell both her & Woo.

I thought Kass not going with a women's alliance was dumb. Trish, Kass & Jeffra would have controlled the game. Take out Woo or Spencer, then split votes next week, voting out Spencer/Woo while forcing Tony to play the known idol, then non IC winner of Tasha or Tony. Kass has to know she can't beat Tasha, and might not beat Tony or Spencer, but Kass likely thinks she can out-talk & argue Trish, Jeffra & Woo at final TC. Kass needed 4 at F7 or F6, & Tony took away one of her 4.

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22. "RE: Retrospect"
I didn't have a problem with the Jefra boot - she's got too many Beauty friends on the jury (Tony in particular has people on the jury he's rubbed the wrong way) and she's a lone wolf in terms of original tribe mates. She wasn't wishy washy like Christy in a similar position between original alliances but she did express her disappointment with not being in the loop with the Jeremiah boot, so she could easily have become a wild card.
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24. "RE: Retrospect"
I don't think the Jefra boot was "dumb" either, but when Spencer was available as a choice, it didn't make sense to me.

Jefra made another commitment to the alliance of 5 last week. He could have had Trish flesh out any insecurities in her. But, he constantly discounts Trish and keeps her out of the loop, while Woo is seemingly in the loop. We know that Trish and Tony must talk. The girls will be so much easier to beat when it comes to final challenges, imho, at least most of them (except Tasha!).

Yes, the girls could have gone with the "all girl" alliance and taken control. I agree that was a valid option they ignored. They clearly don't trust each other enough to do it. Jefra/Kass/Trish don't trust Tasha enough, nor does Tasha trust them enough. They all know that Tasha's closest ally in the game is Spencer, therefore it's understandable why it wasn't taken seriously.

Tony is bent on getting people out that in his view are not playing the game. He called Jefra a goat to her face last night. Clearly, Jefra did not read the writing on the wall, which should have been enough for Tony to prioritize Spencer over Jefra as well.

Just isn't logical thinking to me. I agree with CTGirl, Tony's mania is running circles around everyone else, but will it be his demise in the game as well?

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28. "RE: Retrospect"
It seemed logical to me. Tony was worried about what would happen after Spencer was gone. That was the 4-2 scene from the previews. Tasha would have no allies, Jefra was already more or less alone -- it was legitimate, imo, to be concerned that a women's alliance would coalesce at that point.

With Jefra gone, theoretically Tony would be able to rally back Trish and Kass and along with Woo the four of them could vote out Spencer or Tasha next. It probably won't happen that way though.

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23. "RE: Retrospect"
Tony's idols expire before the final. He has a huge target on his back. I'm looking forward to seeing how he navigates the vote when he is not protected. I've thought for the past two weeks that he is too manic (and I do think that will be his fatal flaw).


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25. "RE: Retrospect"
His big decision (oh no, Tony has to think about something!) is whether to give the regular idol to someone else to play, and who. How will he screw up that move?

Fortunately, the HII+ is non-transferable, meaning he might as well hold onto it until after the votes have been read and play it for himself only if absolutely necessary.

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26. "RE: Retrospect"
Do we know if the idols are good until Final 4? (Occasionally they've expired at F5.) If they can be used at F4, Tony has to play them at two of the next 3 TCs. He may need to play the regular HII for himself next week.
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27. "RE: Retrospect"
Tony is guaranteed a path to F4. He's too paranoid & untrusting to give the HII away unless he wins immunity. Tony can take his chances next week with the HII+ & do giveaway the following week. We may see a 3 way tie next week to force Tony to play an idol.

Can't wait to see who goes next & whether both Trish & Woo go along with Kass, or just one or none. I think things are shaping up for a boot of the non-IC winner of Spencer/Tasha or maybe a Woo blindside. Woo is an IC threat. Woo seems unlikely to like or go with Kass, but might go along with a move to force Tony to play his idol. They could even forewarn Tony, since they don't know about Tony having the HII+, which eliminates his need to play the HII.

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29. "Ep 10 Retrospect"
I have to start with... aside from kingfish and myself, Jefra was my 3rd in line thought of bootee this week. But truthfully, I was swayed by this...

So, it's 1 for "Spangle", 7 for tribe, 9 for kingfish and 1 for Jefra.
Obviously waaaaay outside the box.
(What? You were expecting something? Some nugget of wisdom? I ain't got it. No real revelation whatsoever. Just one of the three (gut/heart/mind) taking a chance at speaking out and one of the other, possibly both, squashed it.)

and had to follow suit. Plus, I was finally too tired of being wrong. Of course, those ems the breaks when you don't actually make your voice heard. Coulda, shoulda only if I woulda?
Which really, is a cry for more lurkers to actually chime in as well. Go ahead, make your first post. You've been following the activity for seasons go ahead and speak your mind. Soapbox away!
Anyways...

Parsing the language:
"Chaos is My Friend" was uttered by Tony. Edited in late episode. Had NOTHING to do with #ChaosKass. And REALLY has more to do with what is upcoming for him. He is about to see some chaos after once again not informing Trish of his flip-flopping.

Next time on Survivor... While everyone else's mind is on the auction, Spencer uses his brain to change the game.
The auction-minded folks ran from MalnuTrish to Spencer and Tony (and Tasha, who it seems was waiting for one last auction item to bid on.) IWO those who weren't worried about an advantage were worried about food and on the other end of the spectrum... the exact opposite.

Tony Teases:
* One castaway Tony’s bidding strategy at the Survivor auction could does pay off for them him.
* MeanwhileThe part we just teased leads to ... castaways Tony and Spencer draw rocks for a huge advantage in the game.
* and another castaway hidden idol is decides to shown off by Tony his idol in an attempt to ensure his safety. Done via a bidding strategy that led to a drawing of rocks AND led to a well placed GIANT WHITE TREE with ANOTHER hidden idol within scratching distance of the surface dirt...then going to each member of his "alliance" with his NEW hidden idol that he just found around his neck.

JP hype:
OH MY — one of the greatest moments in an auction — ever. And it’s another Survivor first!!

I poop on almost everything above. The "survivor first" being a survivor producer first attempt at adding a new twist to an auction bidding strategy. Sadly, even the survivors are beyond aware.
Next time, producers, try mixing up the order of auction items.
So far, they all start with a middling to low prize with a mid-range bid winning. It inevitably ends with the "advantage". Mix it up a bit. Try giving away the prize a bit earlier and watch the amount of "Tasha"s rise. Waiting for something even BETTER to come along.

I have PLENTY of ideas for producers if they are interested.

Dissecting the caps:


Tony's 4 Vs 3 and 4 Vs 2 finger counting was pre and post counting of the men IF the women actually get together.


The girl's talking in the water was not only doomed because it was shown but ended up being the catalyst for the events to follow.


Spencer DOES thrown Jefra under the bus.
Spencer is throwing one of the women under the bus. It could be Kass, it could be Tasha, but my money is on it being Jefra. Jefra had considered siding with the brains before the last TC but went back to the brawns claiming she didn't think it would be good for her game to switch at this time. Tony is already aware that Jefra would vote for him. Is he sure she won't actually do so this week?

And with Spencer doing the dirty work this week, the last beauty is sent to the jury.

Revealing the path forward:

* SeeBS absolute. You can't rely on "could", "meanwhile" or "another castaway" as meaning a spit of anything EVER again.

* JP is full of the biggest amount of "caca" when it comes to "firsts". (See: Lindsey quits because of potential "loss of control". Both Spencer and Tony fall for a really sketchy tie-break rule regarding the annual "last item", the "advantage". (Game OR Challenge advantage TBD)

* Spangles away! Speak your mind, regardless of how truly stoopid you think it might be. At this moment I have been wrong almost all season and still feel like king of the Losers.

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30. "RE: Ep 10 Retrospect"
LAST EDITED ON 05-02-14 AT 10:37 AM (EST)

I'm sold on michel's line of reasoning. The editors certainly seem to want us to root for Spencer, first, and Tasha, second. Tony is made to seem like a fun, manic player who will screw himself over.
Trish is the sneaky assassin, but one who follows orders blindly. Woo is just woooo! Kass is the bitchy, self-absorbed lawyer who thinks she is better/smarter than everyone she's ever met and wonders why she has no close friends. Does she cry herself to sleep at night or has her heart become too hardened? She seems like the type who could be a psychopath with people chained up in her basement. Okay, maybe I'm going a little too far with the Kass hate.

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31. "Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak"
Ep11 Evidence
Title:
Havoc to Wreak

Next time on Survivor... Next time on Survivor everyone is tired of Tony's antics even his closest ally.

Teases:
* During an intense challenge, castaways attempt to crack the code and earn a spot in the final five.
* Additionally, one castaway’s paranoia threatens another’s stake in the game
* and Tony’s closest confidant is wooed by another alliance

JP hype:
With only a few people living at one camp, there’s nowhere to hide and it’s so easy to be overheard.

So from these alone; Woo, Tony's closest ally and confidant is tired of his antics and is "wooed" by Spencer and Tasha.

And of note, going into this episode, Kass herself has stated that she has wreaked havoc before and she will wreak havoc in her future. Now, is her future...

But first...
RC:
Run with two teams of 3;

Purple: Tony, Trish and Tasha
Orange: Spencer, Kass, Woo


The challenge objective being to use the sand bags to topple your opponents wall of painted blocks. The winning trio, I'm thinking, receive an off-camp reward and probably leave directly from the challenge site to enjoy it.

Meanwhile, the losers (Kass, Woo and Spencer) are sent back to camp to commiserate, plot and plan.

This gives them the opportunity to "woo" Woo and get him to notice how dangerous and untrustworthy (and potentially game crashing) Tony is.
Apparently, he's in agreement...

Woo: At this point in the game, if I've got to make a big move, I'll definitely do it.

Onto the Individual IC:
To lead us off we have...During an intense challenge, castaways attempt to crack the code and earn a spot in the final five.
Castaways will start at their Code-Boxes and upon go will sprint towards a series of Items;



Making sure to accurately count each of the items and then sprint back to transpose those numbers into the Code-Box. (Of note, each of the code boxes are arranged differently. With the items listed on the side in a different order from each other player).
Some will do one item at a time, others may try to get multiple items committed to memory before running back.
Regardless, this challenge seems to highlight the abilities of a couple of Survivors.


Studying the comparisons between Spencer's CodeBox Pre-Challenge and the cap of him at the Code-Box reveals he has changed 3 item numbers at this point in the challenge. Fish Traps, Rocks and Masks.

And here's Tasha... the accountant...

some statistical stuff...
Originating Code-Box Numbers... (and used as NOT the actual code numbers but are 2 spaces away from the REAL number code.)
Bouys: 17 | Rocks: 26 | Crabs: 22 | Masks: 23 | Fish Traps:13 | Bamboo: 33

Tasha/Spencer Code-Box Comparison. *changed by survivor
Spencer's Code-Box: Fish Traps: *15 | Rocks: *24 | Crabs: 22 | Masks: *24 | Bamboo: 33 | Bouys: 17
Tasha's Code-Box: Bouys: 17 | Fish Traps: 13 | Rocks: *23 | Crabs: 22 | Masks: 23 | Bamboo: 33

From the caps above; Tasha has changed 1 of her code-counts, while Spencer has changed 3.
Regardless I have confidence that Tasha could indeed win again.

TC Strategies:

The biggest thing we know of is the fight between Kass and Tony, where Tony 'reveals' his idol and dares Kass to go ahead and vote for him.
We also saw Spencer and Kass wooing Woo (sorry I can't get enough of it.) and heard Woo say "I'm in" supposedly in regards to an attempt at voting out Tony.


Intoto:
Where does Trish stand? How about Tasha?

And where oh where is Tony getting his information from?
With only a few people living at one camp, there’s nowhere to hide and it’s so easy to be overheard. ~ JP

Tony 'overhears' something. It certainly isn't the OPEN arguement between Tony and Kass. However, it could be that he overhears Woo discussing his need to make a "big move". This usually send waves of panic in Tony (and Kass) and could result in Tony making a counter move against his own "closest ally".

Irregardless of whomever ends up voting for Tony, his idols will protect him.


Survivors In Danger for Ep11:
For this week, my thoughts going into bootee predictions are tainted a bit by the title for next week... "Straw That Broke The Camel's Back".
That particular straw is whats known as the LAST straw and is usually reserved for the person who has been duped for a second or third time. The only dupees have been Kass and Tony. Both have strayed from their alliances and backstabbed someone in their own alliance. While as a result of the backstabbing Kass absorbed herself into a new alliance, after Tony has done some backstabbing he continues to go back to the same alliance. Therefore, my thought is that THIS episode must result in someone from the Majority alliance getting booted. And as a result of either Tony or Kass switching things up.

Kass ~ Spencer ~ Tasha ~ Woo

Kass: I'd remove her but I don't want to be surprised. Instead I will cross off her name. She has some Havoc to Wreak and I, for one, look forward to the outcome.

Spencer: This kid has lots of lives. He's not really been the target in many TCs and when he was, a bigger target suddenly appeared. No reason to believe it won't happen again. His editing is painting a VERY resonant "winner" angle on him, but his own activity POST-game leads to a bitter-er end.

Tasha: No reason to believe that she won't win another Immunity Necklace. Specially when the IC itself is a study in her own chosen field of expertise. ALTHOUGH, I wouldn't be surprised if everything about the mis-direction of wooing Woo, KaosKass and Tony's Idols, leads us back to an opportunity to dump the current challenge whore. Tasha without Immunity is doomed.

Woo: Telling the camera that your vote is the most important or that your next move is critical is "usually" a sign that you've grown to big for your britches. However, as the current editing is showing, it's those that aren't playing the game that are getting targeted. Take too long and your opening might be removed completely. So IF he stands up to Tony, Woo will survive, but if he waffles, he's a goner.


My Vote:


RC: Team T ~ Tasha, Tony and Trish


IC: Tasha (alt. Spencer)


Bootee: Woo



Next week... Trish's Camelback is broken by a last straw.

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05-06-14, 07:00 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak"
Everyone's saying Woo. If Kass gets her way, I could see Trish. It is all up to if Spencer and Tasha want to allow her back in again.
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05-06-14, 07:29 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak"
Per Jeffra interview, Kass & Trish had a F3 alliance. Plus, until Spencer/Tasha have superior #'s, they'll take whomever they can get that keeps them in the game another round. Up til now, its been Tony, but they'll align with Kass, or at least vote with her for a TC, if it keeps them in the game.
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05-06-14, 09:35 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak"
That F3 alliance has not been revealed on the show. Was it her, Trish, and Woo? And the whole Twitter stuff......well I'm just wondering how that came about. Do people really hate Kass that much because of her personality?
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05-06-14, 11:26 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak"
May have been with LJ as the 3rd. Jeffra rattled off several alliances, I think Woo was in one.

Videos are on CBS.com where you can watch the Ponderosa video of Jury as each member voted off & "Survivor Live Replay" section with a 25 min. or so interview between Parvarti & latest contestant voted off:

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/

I watch partially because Parvarti is cute & occasionally has some wicked insight into the show!

I don't Twitter, but it seems like I've read on the Board, this or Sucks, that Twitter feud started several episodes in, perhaps something Kass said in Tweets, rather than from show.

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05-07-14, 01:35 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak"
Idk, Tony was telling Kass to find "someone else to play with" before the season started. Trish had beef with Kass after first episode about J'Tia and said the game is over and be real. Kass was being bashed between then and the J'Tia vote by Tony. Trish has retweeted and agreed with everything Tony has said about Kass. Now Tony is attacking Kass after a while suddenly which is ironic given the upcoming episode.
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05-07-14, 05:39 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Ep. 11 | SOTS | Havoc to Wreak"
Saw this on Sucks:

I can feel the energy coming.. Heading to the Survivor party soon.. Yahoooo.
— Trish Hegarty (@TrishHegarty) May 7, 2014

Sounds like it's down to Spencer or Woo. (Not going to L.A. today)

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05-08-14, 10:45 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: Ep. 11 Retrospect"
We're watching some other show's Next Times and promo's. All bets are off. Lead astray. Bamboozled. No rhyme or reason involved. Misdirection of misdirection. It's all rather fun.


I should be watched....closely.

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05-09-14, 00:52 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Ep. 11 Retrospect"
My sentiments exactly.
I was gonna strike-out a bullet-list of things we were led astray on, but then realized the whole dang shebang would have had one-long-line going throughout it.
The only thing I got right was...
ALTHOUGH, I wouldn't be surprised if everything about the mis-direction of wooing Woo, KaosKass and Tony's Idols, leads us back to an opportunity to dump the current challenge whore. Tasha without Immunity is doomed.

My gut and heart have made my brain feel dumb, my brain and gut have made my heart break, my heart and brain have punched me in the gut multiple times.
Yet, each one of them (even when they are right) has been beat down by the new "survivor illogic".

Which, aside from the bruised ego, has been fun.

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05-13-14, 04:28 PM (EST)
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40. "Ep. 12 | SOTS | Straw That Broke The Camel's Back"
Ep12 Evidence
Title:
Straw That Broke The Camel's Back

Next time on Survivor... Chaos Kass is back but this time she's met her match.

Teases:
* Castaways scale new heights as they battle for a guaranteed spot in the final four.
* Meanwhile, friends become enemies when one castaway overhears plans for her eviction,
* and Tony comes up with a strategy for his special Immunity idol

JP hype:
We have a handful of players each with a shot to win it. Immunity will be ESSENTIAL. Who you leave in the game is as important as who you put on the jury. This is it...

So from these alone; ChaosKass is revealed as a "backstabber" as Trish finds out that Kass was spearheading a Trish boot before the latest TC. Putting the 2 ladies at odds with each other. And Tony plays with his idols in order to get his chosen ally a step further as well.
BUT is this rift/idolizing misdirection to keep us from recognizing Spencer's position in the game?

RC:

The famed "mud-slinging" comes from the decidely NON-mud-slinging but moreso mud-CLINGING and Scraping challenge.

The playing field is a mud pit.

Each survivor has a bucket.

Their bodys will act as the "mud-sponge".

They fill their bucket with as much mud their bodies can carry before the timer goes off.

Once the timer goes off, JP will have someone else carry the buckets of mud to his weigh-station.

The castaway with the biggest total poundage of mud wins.

As far as I can tell, the reward winner doesn't really have anything to do with the storyline.
Also, there are way too many combinations of folks at Camp to difinitively state that so & so win reward.
BUT, 1 person wins and probably gets to take 1, possibly 2, people on reward. With only 5 people left it's pretty much whatever combination, for whatever reason.
Could be a good Bonus Question, right?


Onto the Individual IC:
Castaways scale new heights as they battle for a guaranteed spot in the final four.

A series of "obstacles" await the castaways as they make their way through...
1. Untangling ropes to release a key

2. Unlocking a chest and using the pieces inside to build a ladder

3. Once they reach the top of the ladder, they'll use the pile of planks to create a staircase

4. Once atop the staircase, they'll finally have to solve a SurvivorLogo slider puzzle


As stated by JP, "Immunity will be ESSENTIAL." And for this to be an essential Immunity, Spencer HAS to win it.
He's the only one who absolutely needs it.

TC Strategies:

Secret scene preview from SurvivorLive has Woo spilling the beans to Tony about Spencer and Kass's deception before the last TC.
Woo: "Spencer was like, we were gonna vote for you (Tony). That was his game plan. Kass was in on it. She even told me, 'Hey, I think it would be better if we win top three.' Me, Kass and Spencer. Whew. Tell me about it."

Tony's thoughts now? The kid (Woo) is genuine and it just tears me apart that I'm gonna have to eventually blindside him. You don't want to take someone like Woo to the end, because he might have a shot at getting a few votes. He might get a lot of votes.


So... Kass is exposed, Spencer is thrown under the bus and Tony has 2 idols to strategize with in order to insure his choice of ally (aka trish) makes it to F4.


Intoto/Futurism:
Granted, reaching into the past isn't the best way to predict the future but it is a way of judging our trajectory towards the future. And for further hooey I re-present JP's "pre-season" assumptions on the players who remain...
about *Tony: I like Tony but I don't think Tony can win this game. Because I don't think Tony's gonna be able to relate to people in the way they need to be related to.
about *Trish: I really like Trish, she'll tell you her story it's not been an easy one. But she's taught her kids never give up on your dreams.
about *Woo: I can't figure out if that's all there is to Woo is what you see or if there's a lot more going on that he hasn't shown. Woo could be Fabio. He could be a new version of the young kid who ends up in the end and you go, HUH?
about *Spencer: Spencer has zero chance of winning this game. He's waiting to be blindsided. He's so unaware of how he comes across. He's young, arrogant, thinks he's the smartest guy to ever walk the face of the planet. Spencer needs to spend less time thinking about how right he is and spend more time trying to understand why the other guy doesn't think he's right.
about *Kass: Kass is another question mark for me. I don't think Kass knows who she's gonna be in this game and we're getting dangerously close to starting so she needs to figure it out. If Kass comes out and tries to be the clever one or tries to be the villain, it's not gonna work.

Boy, that Host guy is TERRIBLE at assessing the castaways.
But I, myself, haven't proven to be a good reader of motivations this season either.
However, I can't stop now...

tribe's assessments:
about *Tony: This guy will not only make it through this TC, he will use his idols to take along Trish. He 'could' bite it at F4 TC, though. No promise for the finals. But the outlook does appear good for him to make it to the end.
about *Spencer: This guy absolutely would win IF he gets into the finals. No one else wants this to happen.
about *Woo: Major Yawn. Proactive coat-tail riding is indeed a strategy but it leads to an Amber situation. Which to me, is a major yawn. Lucky for me, Tony recognizes Woo's potential juror advantage and won't let him near the F3.
about *Trish: I've always liked Trish. I do find offense in some of her chosen outbursts but I can see her being a worthy finalist. To be truthful, I have thought she was going to be the winner since the very get-go.
about *Kass: I am in a major minority by openly claiming that I like Kass. The other players deserve every last little tidbit of choas she dishes out. She can't possibly win with this jury but I would love the opportunity to see her try to sway said jury with her statements and retorts.


Survivors In Danger for Ep12:
Tony is IN F4. So this TC really depends on who Tony thinks he can beat in the finale.
And right now, Trish may be the only one (aside from Kass) he wants to keep safe.

Kass ~ Spencer ~ Woo

Kass: Okay, time to uncross her name off. She is a "great goat". A player that anyone left would be crazy to not want as a finalist to ensure their win against her. But she also is an absolute thorn in everyone's side. Most will want to remove the thorn long before the finale though.

Spencer: More in danger now than ever before. The bigger targets are getting fewer and fewer until all that's left is him. Although, that's just what he's hoping for. BUT, as I snuck into the final sentence for Tasha last week, the disclaimer for Spencer is... without Immunity, this guy is doomed.

Woo: Tony recognizes that Woo is a juror favorite. But is this week Woo's week to go? If Spencer wins immunity, it is.


My Vote:


RC: Me.
I love mud. It's actually kinda erotic for me. TMI, sorry.

IC: Spencer

Bootee: Woo



Next week... The finale!!!

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05-20-14, 07:16 PM (EST)
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41. "Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die"
A proviso before jumping on in to my finale SOTS.
Do NOT trust anything I've written below. I completely missed the bootee last week. I mean, e.n.t.i.r.e.l.y. wrong. Not only was I wrong about the bootee and ALL of the machinations used to get to the real bootee, but desperately misguided by the nature of people and their motivations going into the finals. The spoils this season have been at once and all scarce and contradictory, so everything below is my best attempt at "speculation", providing the clues presented.

Ep13 Evidence
Title:
It's Do or Die

Next time on (the 2 hour Season Finale of) Survivor... the road to the end is never easy.

Pre-Show Buzz:
*

* As for the finale itself, still more surprises to come regarding how it finishes and two of the most exciting challenges of any finale.

* via reddit...
Jragyn: Budgetary concerns are usually a sign of impending doom for any show. Please tell me budget wasn't a factor in not having a loved ones visit this season.
JeffProbstHere: Ah so glad you asked this.... do you know what happens when you assume -- remember that one? You make an ass... well my friend and I mean that lovingly--- the season is not yet over is it? Ah thee of so little faith!

* Eyeing a spot in the final three, one castaway pulls one of the greatest comebacks in Survivor history, and the final castaways face a bitter jury when pleading their case for the $1 million prize.

So from these alone;
Three tribal councils. (If one of them has to be Final Tribal Council, that means there are 2 other TCs and 2 MORE castaways leaving before Final Tribal Council.)
F2 it is. But they have to face a bitter jury.
With 3 TC's we'll have to boot two players which means two immunity challenges must be played.
Two of the most exciting challenges of any finale. (Means 3 challenges with one of them being boring OR just 2 exciting challenges both for immunity.)
One of the castaways pulls off an historic comeback. (My bet is it's the Charlie Brown.)

Here are press images of the 2 exciting challenges...

Now, initially I had written an EXTREMELY lengthy diatribe manifesto about so-n-sos journey to end game. Calculating each move through all of the possibilities with what remains of our choices for Sole Survivor. It was extremly long as noted above. In fact three different addendums were used to drive home points about what MAY end up happening.
Phew...it was exhaustive, compiling confessional counts, past F4/F3 challenges, past F3/F2 finales, extra finale challenges, disciplinary actions for each of the past challenges, times a boat was seen, times survivors got congratulatory feasts, fallen comrades memorials, editing tricks, tweets, ponderosa promises, SurvivorLive leaks and the plethora of end game options brought about by all of them.

I scrapped it all for a semi-fan-fictitous segment, reminescent of my past efforts at Spoiling the spoilers, titled 'The Men who Glare at the Goat', slightly mirroring the the eventual outcomes with those related to the movie.

Of course, in the movie, one of the men ended up killing a goat by staring at it. My story ended similarly.
Granted the premise for my little scenario was about as exciting as watching a staring contest. So, it too was scrapped.

However, the story from above does have alternate endings. Endings which I will present to you all. It will be for you to decide which one you want to see.
F4 Starting Point:
Kass ~ Spencer ~ Tony ~ Woo

The immunity challenge is a smaller scaled super-challenge, wherein the survivors will need balance, athleticism and puzzle solving abilities. Luckily, they will all have a cheerleader.

F3 Option #1: Spencer wins F4 IC
a. Woo Booted | Kass ~ Spencer ~ Tony to F3
b. Kass Booted | Spencer ~ Tony ~ Woo to F3
c. Tony Booted | Kass ~ Spencer ~ Woo to F3

F3 Option #2: Woo wins F4 IC
a. Spencer Booted | Kass ~ Tony ~ Woo to F3
b. Kass Booted | Spencer ~ Tony ~ Woo to F3
c. Tony Booted | Kass ~ Spencer ~ Woo to F3

F3 Option #3: Tony wins F4 IC
a. Spencer Booted | Kass ~ Tony ~ Woo to F3
b. Kass Booted | Spencer ~ Tony ~ Woo to F3
c. Woo Booted | Kass ~ Spencer ~ Tony to F3

Kass winning an immunity challenge is NOT an option.
Adding only the thoughts that the idle idol lie will help Tony through to F3.
Means, to me, that one of Spencer OR Woo win the F4 immunity and the other one is the bootee.
Of course, it could also be Kass' turn to go.


F3 Starting Point:
Option #1: Spencer ~ Tony ~ Woo
Option #2: Kass ~ Spencer ~ Tony
Option #3: Kass ~ Tony ~ Woo

The immunity challenge is a sort of Super-Challenge combining a lot of athleticism with a fair amount of puzzling as well.

F2 Option #1: Woo wins F3 IC
Woo will have to choose between Spencer and Tony as F2 OR Kass and Tony for F2.
a. Spencer Booted | Tony ~ Woo to F2
b. Tony Booted | Spencer ~ Woo to F2
c. Spencer Booted | Kass ~ Woo to F2
d. Kass Booted | Tony ~ Woo to F2

F2 Option #2: Tony wins F3 IC
A plethora of options for him but I believe his only real shot at securing a win is with Kass as his F2.
a. Woo Booted | Tony ~ Kass to F2
b. Spencer Booted | Tony ~ Kass to F2

F2 Option #3: Spencer wins F3 IC (What an amazing comeback!)
Depending on which option from above got him here, Spencer would MOST likely choose to boot either Woo or Tony. Kass is almost an imperative if Spencer makes F2.
a. Woo Booted | Kass ~ Spencer to F2
b. Tony Booted | Kass Spencer to F2
c. Kass Booted | Unlikely to Happen

F2 Option #4: Kass wins F3 IC!
...
...
...
Sorry, I just passed out.
But IF she did, she'd probably want to take Tony.


F2 Starting Point

Winner Option #1: Spencer Wins!
a. Kass VS Spencer | Spencer Gets Majority Votes!
b. Spencer VS Tony | Spencer Gets Majority Votes!
c. Spencer VS Woo | Unlikely to Happen


Winner Option #2: Woo Wins!
a. Kass VS Woo | Woo Gets Majority Votes!
b. Tony VS Woo | Won't Happen

Winner Option #3 & #4: Kass or Tony Win.
a. Kass VS Tony


My journey through the options?
Considering the tease that a comeback is acheived, that we will see a bitter jury and that it's not how you start it's how you finish, all mean 1 of 2 things to me...
The 2 remaining 'brains', Kass and Spencer make F2.

My path?... I began with F3 Option #1 a. Spencer wins the F4 IC and Woo is booted.
I then went with F2 Option #3 b. Spencer wins the F3 IC as well and Tony is booted.
I finally landed at the most logical ending considering the previous options I chose.
For the finale reveal I went with Winner Option #1 a. Spencer handily wins over Kass.


I wish you good luck with your chosen paths.

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05-20-14, 11:05 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die"
Tribe! Just wanted to give a big THANK YOU!! for all your work on these SOTS. It's been a fun ride and I've appreciated all your insight. Looking forward to the Finale!!


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05-21-14, 09:51 AM (EST)
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43. "RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die"
Here's to you dear Tribe. We all need one after this insanity.
Thank you for keeping up with the SOTS this season, now go relax sweetie <3

I can't forget your faithful pups who probably watched you bang your head more than once. Good doggies!


Corrupting teenage boys since, well,
none of your business how long...

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05-21-14, 10:38 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die"
Love your picture of The Goat. I have enjoyed the SOTS all season. Thanks for that!
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05-21-14, 11:58 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die"
Thanks, Tribe, for doing these each week.

I just want to point out that, as written, the comeback clue implies only that the person gets into the Final 3 against the previous odds of that happening. I don't read it as meaning any more than that.

Also, I don't see how anyone on the jury could be bitter toward Spencer. That clue points to a Kass/Tony F2, imo.

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05-21-14, 11:59 AM (EST)
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46. "RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die"
LAST EDITED ON 05-21-14 AT 12:00 PM (EST)

They'd be really bitter for a Tony/Woo F2 as well with Kass sniping as only she can and Spencer angry about the F4 sHII bluff (I don't doubt that Tony will gloat about it in some way, making the jury aware of it).

Oh, and of course! A fantastic job to Tribe for everything he's done this season to keep the place humming. You deserve all the drinks and treats on the house as a reward!

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05-21-14, 12:42 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die"
Thanks for all your hard work this season Tribe! You were figuratively carrying us on your back this season!

Loved the goat pic too!

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05-22-14, 10:32 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Ep. 13 | SOTS | It's Do or Die"
LAST EDITED ON 05-22-14 AT 10:32 PM (EST)

Well Kass did win the f4 immunity lol.

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