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"1st Boot Speculation"
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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-13, 05:07 AM (EST)
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"1st Boot Speculation"
*Please, no sourced material allowed.*
The 1.5 hour premiere is less than a week away and I think we need to start figuring out who's gonna go first.

This is actually my 3rd attempt at compiling info but due to a recurring comp glitch all the work was lost twice and frankly I'm over it.
However, it must be noted that the Water Challenge is for Reward.

And according to vidcaps so far both sides are seen cheering, so I have NO idea who wins it. Actually, I'm leaning towards a GOTA win because of these shots...


Now, onto the IC.

The Immunity challenge (as confirmed by JP and Lisa via the TVGuide preview) is the land challenge.

JP explaining challenge...

with Idol under wraps...

It begins with 2 survivors from each tribe running, climbing and clambering up the large structure to one of 4 levels. Grab the crates on that level and throw them over smashing the crates on the ground below. Within the crates are sandbags.

Once all four levels have been reached, their crates smashed below and the survivors returned to their tribal mats, the final pair grabs a duo of baskets, races to lift the lid of the game board and then locates sandbags within the smashed crates. Once they've found some the run back to a tossing line and begin trying to fill the 6 empty holes in their gameboard.

I will attempt an ordered version.

Leading us off for this challenge and for the first level is...

Bikal: Phillip and Cochran
Gota: Allie and Laura

Phillip returning


2nd Level
Gota: Hope and Michael

Bikal: Francesca (and Corrine?)


3rd Level
Gota: Julia (and Matt?)

Bikal: Erik and Brenda


Top Level
Gota: Sherri and Eddie

Bikal: Brandon (and Andrea?)


And for the sandbag tossing portion we have...
Dawn and Malcolm for Bikal. They're ahead of GOTA at this moment.


Gota: Reynold and Shamar for GOTA


And we witness the moment where Gota overtakes Bikal.

Now, look at these caps...

Looks like Michael, Laura, Hope and Eddie are very happy!

I'm calling a GOTA win for the first IC1.

Which means we now have to look at Bikal for the first Boot.
Phillip and Brandon should definitely be nervous, but I also sense that those guys will both be integral puzzle pieces for these early boots. Moreso as deflectional targets.
Dawn, Cochran, Erik, Andrea and even Brenda should be safe. Andrea is EVERYWHERE during the caps, talking with all sorts of groups of people. Brenda and Erik seem inseparable.
Really, this leaves Corrine, Francesca and Malcolm as suspects and I could find reasons for them all to be first with this particular group of "favs". But will history be repeated or does the bit(h get it?

Thoughts?


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: 1st Boot Speculation michel 02-09-13 1
 GOTA Idol? tribephyl 02-09-13 2
   RE: GOTA Idol? Flowerpower 02-09-13 3
       RE: GOTA Idol? tribephyl 02-10-13 4
           RE: GOTA Idol? Flowerpower 02-10-13 5
               RE: GOTA Idol? Round Robin 02-10-13 6
               RE: GOTA Idol? PepeLePew13 02-10-13 7
               RE: GOTA Idol? michel 02-10-13 8
   RE: GOTA Idol? tribephyl 02-13-13 19
 Easy Estee 02-10-13 9
 RE: 1st Boot Speculation crispy06 02-11-13 10
   Question? Flowerpower 02-11-13 11
       RE: Question? crispy06 02-11-13 12
       RE: Question? tribephyl 02-11-13 13
           RE: Question? Flowerpower 02-12-13 15
               RE: Question? tribephyl 02-12-13 16
                   Reward at Bikal tribephyl 02-13-13 18
                       RE: Reward at Bikal Flowerpower 02-13-13 20
 RE: 1st Boot Speculation Bebo 02-11-13 14
 IC challenge per Kirhoffer tribephyl 02-12-13 17
 RE: 1st Boot Speculation Scarlett O Hara 02-13-13 21

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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-13, 02:09 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: 1st Boot Speculation"
Great work Tribe. You have me convinced that it will be a Bikalamity in episode 1. Then, I've already said who I think goes home, the one that is sure doesn't have a target on her back:


It would mean that all 3 returning Gabon players would have been eliminated at the first occasion.

Myself, I would love to see Francesquaw go home only to be able to call her the anti-Sandra: Two-time first boot.

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-13, 10:14 PM (EST)
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2. "GOTA Idol?"
Compare...

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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-13, 10:31 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: GOTA Idol?"
Great work, Tribe! You have solved the TRIBE question. Awesome work! I am in, Gota wins the IC.

Now for first boot spec: Why don't you think Cochran could be the first boot? He's useless at challenges, and he's a traitor. I would want him gone asap. Remember, these peeps are supposed to be students of the game, and shouldn't they target the weakest members at the immunity challenge tables?

Just sayin'.

Corrine and Francesquaw are both viable options for me as well.

I would also like to argue ( that Malcolm will be safe as well. He's the charismatic strong guy on the tribe, and they will need him till about merge time, imho.

I think Brandon will survive the first boot as well, as he's pretty strong in "strength" challenges.

So, my choices are: Cochroach, Francesquaw, or Corrine.

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-13, 01:20 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: GOTA Idol?"
With regards to Malcolm, I can think of a thousand reasons to keep him and I have complete faith in his ability to turn it around for himself, however, he is an "unknown" on Bikal. Pretty much everyone else, dependent upon their post-show involvement, is a known factor. For this reason alone do I even consider putting Malcolm in the pile of possibilities.

Now as to Cochran...
You obviously have a personal feeling about him and that shouldn't cloud your judgment.
I just don't see the other survivors looking at Cochran with as much distaste. More often they have spoken of him as ally-able.

Anyways, knowing these attributes about Cochran means had he arrived on a tribe of newbs, then YES, he would be immediately targeted for his past betrayal, his lack of challenge ability and basically "bringing nothing to the table".
However, with returnees, there are more than one of them thinking they can use him as a shield and a vote for MANY TCs to come. IOW, they think they know who he is, what to watch out for and feel as if they can always get rid of Cochran later on.

So, for your sake, I hope Cochran either changes his game plan completely, which it sounds like he has the intention of doing. OR well, there isn't really anything else he can do. You'll have to keep your fingers crossed peeps play the way you want them to.

Personally, since we've already gone there. I don't mind Cochran at all and without scratching the bully-scab, my thoughts on Jim and Whitney are much worse.

Anyways, I'm pretty confident that the first boot will NOT be a tribe splitting vote so it has to be someone that the returnees feel LEAST comfortable with. And the only unknowns this season on Bikal are Francesca, Malcolm and Corrine.


And on Gota: From the caps it's becoming quite clear that Eddie, Hope, Reynold and Michael have formed an early alliance.

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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-13, 08:50 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: GOTA Idol?"

Thanks for the perspective, Tribe. You could be right...

Regarding Malcolm, I think back to the only other player that I can think of that returnees didn't know, RussHell, and I can't remember them trying to get him out right off the bat. But, look how that turned out, so perhaps these people have learned? But, the reason I see Malcolm not going, and Cochran perhaps getting the first boot does boil down to who is able to really help win challenges. We all know it's a game of numbers and if they don't stay on top of the numbers they could be in trouble. And, the only way to achieve that from the start is to win challenges.

Cockroach is not good in challenges, plain and simple. He's even admitted multiple times that he's not good with puzzles either. So, on this premise alone, I could argue for his boot. But, I suppose I should consider if there is anyone else out there that could possibly be worse at challenges than Cochran. Perhaps one of the girls...Francesquaw or Corrine. I think Corrine will be ok, I don't recall her being bad at them?

You did note: More often they have spoken of him as ally-able.

Cochran does have a few friends out there on his tribe, namely Dawn and Brandon. That alone could save him...I would be curious though to know where others have spoken of him as ally-able? I haven't been reading too much so I am out of the loop, again!

We all know that Philip will be gunning for Francesca, at least I think he will. And, Francesca will most likely be gunning for Philip. I do not see this conflict resolving anytime soon unless one of them were to be booted asap. This would be an "easy" conflict to resolve.

I agree that there are some peeps because of their past that I can see being saved as they could be great shields for later...Philip, Brandon. Maybe Cockroach, maybe Corrine. I just don't know.

I will admit, this is a hard one to call for me.

I do want to keep an open mind, but, let's just say it's going to be hard.



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Round Robin 2243 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-13, 10:04 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: GOTA Idol?"
In the absence of solid evidence to the contrary, I will probably vote Franceska when the vote thread is posted. Franceska flat out sucks at Survivor, and that old conflict with Philip is also a factor. I think she goes very early, maybe first. Easy boot.
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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-13, 11:04 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: GOTA Idol?"
Corrine has said she wouldn't mind working with Cochran in her pre-game interview with Gordon Holmes - she said she wants to group herself with someone that she "needs" and with someone who "needs her". Erik seems to admire Cochran, saying he thought it was shameful what Cochran had to go through and hopes he does better this time around.

I think the key is that Phillip and Francheesa have not let go of their spat and we see that in some of the interviews and in some of the early vidcaps. I think Bikal will just say "there's some animosity there so let's get rid of that animosity" and make it an easy vote. There's only one spot of animosity that is clearly present that early on in the game - the others haven't had time to annoy each other yet with an intro of the tribes and two challenges to eat up early camp time. I'm going with the Occam's Razor principle here and will look at Francheesa as the first boot prospect from that tribe.

For the near future, I'd keep an eye on Malcolm. He's an unknown to the others, so they won't trust him. Also, in his interviews, Malcolm doesn't trust or think highly of Brandon, Phillip and Cochran. If he can get in with the ladies, he'll be safe, but if not, then...

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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-13, 02:08 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: GOTA Idol?"
In Savaii, Cochran found a tribe much like Goata: The young, athletic popular kids. That's a nerd's worst nightmare and he couldn't find his footing.

Bikalamity is an older tribe, one that suits the paranoid weakling much more. Give Cochran an alliance and who does he become? Todd! A smart, game savvy munchkin.

The Favorites(?) will certainly worry about Malcolm. He had to do something big to get invited back and they won't risk paying to find out what it was. Also, from what I heard, Malcolm wasn't exactly the "nice guy" the Philippines depicted. Apparently, he had a lot of snark that wasn't shown. If that comes out again then they'll have to get rid of him as soon as they get ahead of Goata.

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-13, 01:56 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: GOTA Idol?"
Just adding more confirmation the line-ups for Gota tribe pre-challenge and Post-Challenge are indeed different. With cleaner cap and complete tribe.

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Estee 55194 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-13, 02:57 PM (EST)
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9. "Easy"
Whoever gives Brandon the most ongodly temptation to sin.
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crispy06 102 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-13, 10:28 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: 1st Boot Speculation"
I agree with the others that it looks like a Bikal RC win and a Gota IC win. So looking at the potential targets on Bikal for the first boot what immediately sticks out to me is the weak people like Cochran/Francesca/maybe Corrine? or they could try to get rid of unknown threats like Malcolm or a liability like Brandon/Phillip. It just depends on who aligns with who in this tribe of goons. I think it will be a unpredictable first boot but i'm leaning towards a woman.
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02-11-13, 11:22 AM (EST)
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11. "Question?"
Clearly the Gota's win the first IC, Tribe has found the celebratory shots and then one with them with the idol. The first IC is the running one where they climb to smash boxes, then get sandbags to throw into targets.

So, is the other challenge that's seen, the water challenge where they fight for the ring, is that an RC in the first episode, OR, is it an RC in episode 2?

Usually the first episode doesn't have an RC. Any spec regarding this?

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crispy06 102 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-13, 01:39 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Question?"
Everyone says it's the episode one RC because all the players are there. Or could there be two IC in one episode? For an epic double boot? That would be unprecedented.
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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-13, 02:24 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Question?"
Aside from the fact that all 20 are accounted for during BOTH challenges, JP himself noted that this season they have the survivors get right into a challenge. (Which is not necessarily true as the tribes arrive, meet, go back to camp and then meet up the next day for their first challenge (for reward).
But I can guarantee that there are 2 challenges in ep 1 and they both aren't for immunity.
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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-13, 03:59 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Question?"
LAST EDITED ON 02-13-13 AT 07:40 AM (EST)

Thanks, Tribe! So who wins the water challenge then? Do we have spec on that?

ETA: Thanks as well, Crispy!



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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-13, 06:33 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Question?"
Spec on the water challenge winner is still open.
These are the caps which point to "possible" post-challenge cheering.
Bikal:


Gota:



The reward itself is a jug (of rice?)

I have been scouring the caps of the campsites looking for something similar.
Sadly, the obstacle to nailing THAT down became harder because it's known that each camp is given a similarly sized jug upon first arrival at camp.

I "thought" I might have seen the reward jug at Bikal, then noticed that it has the same handles as the jugs originally given.
(seen in the shelter behind the area of Cochran's head)

So, truthfully, I have no idea.
I keep looking for confirmation of a "Reward" jug at either camp.

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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02-13-13, 01:52 AM (EST)
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18. "Reward at Bikal"
Look what showed up behind Cochran...

I see two jugs. 1 resembling the one the tribe was initially given and another one that resembles the jug available at the RC.


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02-13-13, 07:48 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Reward at Bikal"
OMG, Tribe! You are a one man spoiling machine so far this season! Without you, we'd be LOST! Thanks for all the hard work! Much appreciated...



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02-11-13, 05:42 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: 1st Boot Speculation"
I'm going to try to avoid overthinking this season (mainly because the, ahem, favorites aren't worth the brain time, oops, this isn't Bashers).

We're shown the IC winner and know that Bikal is going to hear the fire is life speech in the first TC. The episode title is She Annoys Me Greatly. Which is more likely - that two of the returnees would develop a new hatred during the first three days, or that an existing bad relationship stays bad? The more likely is that it's an existing bad relationship. That points directly to Francesca and Philip, and the she in the title means the female is the one in peril.

Bye, Francesca.


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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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02-12-13, 06:55 PM (EST)
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17. "IC challenge per Kirhoffer"
"It's a Long Way to the Top."

John Kirhoffer: Guys on "go" you're going to, in pairs, race down to the ladder in front, and then go to the balconies. At each balcony there are three crates. Grab your crates and throw them into the corral. They will smash. Then you come back. Second pair goes up to the second floor, throws their three crates off. Smash, smash, smash, smash, smash. Third floor, fourth floor, okay? Come back, two people race out, they go into the pit. Grab your basket, fill it up with all your sandbags. Bring them back, throw your sandbags. Once you hit all six targets, a flag goes up, you are victorious.


In the dreamteam rehearsal, Bikal wins. Hmmmmm...

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02-13-13, 09:46 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: 1st Boot Speculation"
Well done Tribe - you are a seasoned Spoiler!

You have given us solid evidence we can sink our teeth into. I have read that Phillip and Francesca just plain do NOT get along. The Favs will need Phillip's strength in challenges. Franseca is mouthy and expendable. Therefore, I'm going with Francesca as the first boot and Michel can have is way - Franscesca will be the Anti-Sandra, the first player ever to be the first boot twice! Although, in my heart of hearts, I wish the first boot would be Cochran ...


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