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"Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
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forehead 928 desperate attention whore postings
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09-06-12, 12:45 PM (EST)
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"Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
*** Do Not Enter if you do not want read source spoilers. ***
*** Do Not Enter if you do not want read source spoilers. ***
*** Do Not Enter if you do not want read source spoilers. ***

Ok, with that out of the way, I wanted to start a thread to combine some of the “inside insights” and try to make some sense of it. I’m no KB, and won’t pretend to. I just always thought his “Spoiling the spoilers” had a nice ring to it.

Beatlebum79 (4/23/12): “Also, please take my spoilers with a grain of salt. They might or might not be true.” Very refreshing to read and important to remember.
Beatlebum79 (5/6/12):
“Matsing’s color is yellow. Tandang’s color is red. Kalabaw’s color is blue.
The merge tribe consisted of 6 Matsing, 2 Tandang, and 4 Kalabaw.”

Clearly beatlebum got all the colors and tribe names early on, but -as we know now- they were incorrectly matched up on 5/6/12. No big deal, obviously, but we might consider his merge tribe spoiler based on colors as:
Merge tribe: 6 yellow, 2 red, 4 blue.
Meaning:
All of (Mike, Abi-Maria, Lisa, RC, Artis, Pete)
2 of (Jonathan, Dana, Katie, Sarah/Dawson, Carter, Jeff)
4 of (Russell, Angie, Denise, Roxy, Malcolm, Zane)

Tullfan posted here on 8/3/12 that Missyae has spoiled the final 7:
7. Pete
6. Penner
5. Abi-Maria
4. Malcolm
Final 3: Skupin, Lisa, Denise Marie

Note Arnold_Lorax spoiled Malcolm to finish in 4th as well. Furthermore, beatlebum had a Brazilian female in the F5 - which matches with Abi-Maria

Putting all of this together, the merge would be:
Mike F3, Lisa F3, Abi-Maria F5, Pete F7, RC, Artis
Jonathan F6 + 1 of (Dana, Katie, Sarah/Dawson, Carter, Jeff)
Denise F3, Malcolm F4 + 2 of (Russell, Angie, Roxy, Zane)

Another spoiler by beatlebum was “The top 5 castaways are part of a 6-person allicance.” That smells like #6 (Penner) was not, while possibly #7 was. So, one possibility here is a 6-person alliance of 4 yellow (Mike, Lisa, Abi-Maria, Pete) and 2 blue (Denise, Malcolm). If there are only 2 blues in a merge tribe of 10, it would make sense for the 2 blues to seek numbers. Likewise, for others, it could make sense to pick up 2 stragglers.

I might actually watch this show again…

forehead

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 tribephyl 09-06-12 1
   RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 forehead 09-06-12 2
 RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 tullfan 09-06-12 3
   RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 forehead 09-07-12 5
   RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 tribephyl 09-07-12 8
       RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 tullfan 09-07-12 9
           RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 tullfan 09-07-12 10
               RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 tribephyl 09-08-12 11
 Discussing Pre-Merge Boots tribephyl 09-06-12 4
   RE: Discussing Pre-Merge Boots forehead 09-07-12 6
   RE: Discussing Pre-Merge Boots Arnold_Lorax 09-07-12 7
       RE: Discussing Pre-Merge Boots tribephyl 09-08-12 12
           RE: Discussing Pre-Merge Boots Arnold_Lorax 09-08-12 13
 RC tweet forehead 09-12-12 14
 Roxy goes ep2? forehead 09-21-12 15
   Up next: Angie or Russ? forehead 09-27-12 16
 RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 Bebo 10-04-12 17
 RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 Bebo 10-10-12 18
   RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 forehead 10-10-12 19
 Wow Bebo 10-11-12 20
   RE: Wow dabo 10-11-12 21
 ep 5 forehead 10-15-12 22
 Revisiting at the merge Bebo 10-28-12 23
   RE: Revisiting at the merge byoffer 10-29-12 24
       RE: Revisiting at the merge tribephyl 10-31-12 25
 Missyae Power Rankings week 8 Arnold_Lorax2 11-05-12 26
   RE: Missyae Power Rankings week 8 Arnold_Lorax2 11-05-12 27
 RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 Georjanna 11-07-12 28
 Speculation on what's next Bebo 11-14-12 29
   RE: Speculation on what's next tikigirlie 11-15-12 30
   RE: Speculation on what's next byoffer 11-15-12 31
       RE: Speculation on what's next Murphy3126 11-15-12 32
       RE: Speculation on what's next Arnold_Lorax2 11-15-12 33
           RE: Speculation on what's next Bebo 11-15-12 34
               RE: Speculation on what's next Arnold_Lorax2 11-15-12 35
                   RE: Speculation on what's next mrtricky19 11-15-12 36
                       RE: Speculation on what's next Scarlett O Hara 11-15-12 37
                           RE: Speculation on what's next mrtricky19 11-15-12 39
                       RE: Speculation on what's next Murphy3126 11-15-12 38
                           RE: Speculation on what's next mrtricky19 11-15-12 40
                               RE: Speculation on what's next Murphy3126 11-15-12 41
                                   RE: Speculation on what's next mrtricky19 11-15-12 42
                                       RE: Speculation on what's next Murphy3126 11-15-12 43
 RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 ASurvivorFan 11-16-12 44
   RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 dabo 11-16-12 45
       RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 byoffer 11-16-12 46
           RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 Bebo 11-19-12 48
       RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 ASurvivorFan 11-16-12 47
 Skupin's tweet PepeLePew13 11-20-12 49
   RE: Skupin's tweet Round Robin 11-21-12 50
       RE: Skupin's tweet PepeLePew13 11-21-12 51
 RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 ASurvivorFan 11-23-12 52
   RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 tribephyl 11-24-12 53
       RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 Estee 11-24-12 54
 Missyae Power Rankings Week 11 Arnold_Lorax2 11-26-12 55
   RE: Missyae Power Rankings Week 11 Murphy3126 11-26-12 56
       RE: Missyae Power Rankings Week 11 PepeLePew13 11-26-12 57
           RE: Missyae Power Rankings Week 11 Murphy3126 11-27-12 58
 RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 ASurvivorFan 11-29-12 59
   RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 Arnold_Lorax2 11-29-12 60
       RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25 toad8098 11-29-12 61

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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09-06-12, 04:26 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
I have been doing some similar deducing regarding the BtlBum tribe divisions and merge numbers, and what it means or can be extrapolated on, etc.

One thing that ultimately made me decide to not post anything about it is that simply put... There could be a switch/swap or more likely a tribe absorption.
Just as in AllStars, the 5th episode's reward challenge had the losing tribe be absorbed into the two winning tribes. And after losing, the Saboga members got split amongst the MogoMogo and the Chapera tribes.

Seeing as how we know that Denise and Malcolm both make F5, the two of them MUST be in the "alliance of 6".
IOW, the "Alliance of 6" would be a variable number of original tribe members (4) allying with their NEW tribe-mates (2).

I can certainly see Denise and Malcolm working their way into a NEW F6 deal upon absorption.

Pete being the 6th alliance-mate (leaving at F7) whom doesn't make the F5. Leaving room for Jonathan to slip into F6 and the remaining "alliance of 6(now 5)" as the F5.

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forehead 928 desperate attention whore postings
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09-06-12, 04:43 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
>One thing that ultimately made me decide to not post anything about it is that simply put... There could be a switch/swap or more likely a tribe absorption.

That is entirely possible. I do find it interesting that the merge spoiler is formulated based on membership of the three starting tribes, not based on two re-distributed tribes about to merge. It reminded me of Palau - where initially I was convinced there had to be some re-distribution. Instead, they went on until Ulong had only two members. As opposed to a fire burning challenge, maybe this time they decided to have one big merge as soon as one tribe got down to two. All spec, but the uncertainty makes it interesting.

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tullfan 69 desperate attention whore postings
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09-06-12, 06:40 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
From what I've seen of missyae's spoilers, all of Tandang do make the merger but it is the Kalabaw tribe with 4 making the merger and the Matsing tribe only has 2 making the merger (which are Malcolm and Denise). Also from missyae, at some point prior to the merger the number of tribes is reduced from 3 to 2. I don't know if one of the tribes is dissolved like with All Stars or if the 2 new tribes are determined from some other method such as a random draw.

The pre-merge ousters are Swan, Zane, Katie, Angie, Roxy and Dana. Analysis of vidcaps from the first challenge over at MESS on Survivor Sucks has determined that Matsing comes in last in the first IC. It is also pointed out at MESS, that in the preview shown during the One World Reunion show, Angie and Roxy are seen participating in an additional challenge; so unless there is an RC in the first episode, the first boot is either Zane or Russell Swan. That would be first time that a man is the first out since Fans vs Favorites.

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forehead 928 desperate attention whore postings
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09-07-12, 12:57 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
Thanks for summarizing this tullfan! So, missyae's merge info is different from beatlebum's. That should be useful to sort out later.

I saw the analysis at MESS as well, including a vidcap with Zane with "less than positive body language sitting on the ground during the challenge".

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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09-07-12, 04:50 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
Could you please post a link to where Missyae is saying that Matsing has 2 and Kalabaw has 4 castmates that make jury, that the tribes go from 3 to 2 and where he names the first 6 boots?

Considering the propensity for folks to run with their own conclusions, it would be helpful to see the actual source material.
I did some checking via twitter, but did not see anything along these lines.

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tullfan 69 desperate attention whore postings
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09-07-12, 07:04 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
Since I am banned from Survivor Whispers Premiere, the Facebook account where missyae posts spoilers, I have been getting these spoilers second hand from a poster on the TwoP S25 Spoilers board with username Jyn. I have copied the pertinent post below.

"While he's not sure of the exact order, Jim Early (aka missyae) has a projected look at when everyone gets ousted. And apparently, from what he knows, the only returnee not to make the merge or jury is Russell. In a lot of ways, not surprising.

Pre-Merge Boots:
Angie
Dana
Katie
Roxy
Russell
Zane

Pre-Merge/Jury Boots:
Abi-Maria
Artis
Carter
Dawson
Jeff
Jonathan
Malcolm
Pete
R.C.

F3:
Denise
Lisa
Mike

Also, beatlebum says that the F7-F4 boots are:

Pete
Jonathan
Abi-Maria
Malcolm

. . . in that order. He's not sure about the order of the other five post-merge boots, though.

At least it doesn't look like it'll be a straight-up Pagonging post-merge, at least, which would be nice.
This post has been edited by Jyn: Aug 22, 2012 @ 8:59 PM"


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tullfan 69 desperate attention whore postings
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09-07-12, 07:27 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
Here is the direct link to the post that I copied above from TwoP.

http://forums.televisionwithoutpity.com/index.php?showtopic=3213248&st=30


The reduction from 3 to 2 tribes was from a poster at Survivor Sucks. I will try to locate a link to it.

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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09-08-12, 06:14 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
You rock, tullfan! Thanks.
It's easier to rectify future questions if we're all privy to the "source" material.
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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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09-06-12, 07:42 PM (EST)
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4. "Discussing Pre-Merge Boots"
My pre-merge spec. complete with colorful laminates (Sorry, only the oldsters are gonna remember that reference)...

We know the OLD tribal distribution of the merged tribe.
F12 Merge (original tribal breakdown)
Tandang (6)Matsing (4)Kalabaw (2)
MichaelDeniseJonathan
LisaMalcolmDana
Abi-MariaRussellKatie
PeteAngieCarter
ArtisRoxanneJeff
RCZaneDawson


We also know the F7.
(4 will be from Tandang, 2 will be from Matsing and 1 will be from Kalabaw.)
F7 tribal perspective
Tandang (4)Matsing (2)Kalabaw (1)
MichaelDeniseJonathan
LisaMalcolmDana
Abi-MariaRussellKatie
PeteAngieCarter
ArtisRoxanneJeff
RCZaneDawson


As previously stated, this leaves the Tandang 6 completely intact at Merge with 4 Matsing and 2 Kalabaw also there.
On Matsing, Denise and Malcolm for sure make it, so 2 of Russell, Angie, Roxy and Zane also make merge.
On Kalabaw, Jonathan is the only guarantee for merge, so only 1 of Dana, Carter, Dawson, Jeff and Katie make merge.
Therefore, Matsing loses 2 members before merge, while Kalabaw loses 4 members.

So, now we can kind of split the slate up a bit more...
F3: Denise ~ Lisa ~ Michael
F7 - F3: Pete ~ Jonathan ~ Abi ~ Malcolm
F12 - F8: Artis ~ RC ~ Russell* ~ Angie* ~ Dana* or Katie* (*: Russell because he's a returnee and Angie and Dana because they were the first non-celebs to be spoiled, which is why I think Katie might also be important.)
F18 - F13: 4 Kalabaw / 2 Matsing


Considering my earlier postulations regarding a tribal absorption... in order for the "Alliance of 6" to be consisting of Michael, Lisa, Abi and Pete (Tandang) and Malcolm and Denise (Matsing), I had thought it would mean that Matsing or Tandang will have to be the tribe that is absorbed. However, you'll see as I did, that the absorbed tribe will have to be Kalabaw. Meaning also that the alliance of 6 does not get proposed until AFTER the merge.

Now, take into consideration that the absorption episode (at least last time) was after 4 people had been booted...
Meaning also that after absorption the tribes should be split 7 to 7.
Also, going through the various options with early boots and tribal absorptions; The 'occom's razor' version has Kalabaw as the absorbed tribe, 3 players go to Matsing and 1 player goes to Tandang.

Kalabaw Absorption
TandangMatsing
MichaelDenise
LisaMalcolm
Abi-MariaRussell
PeteAngie
ArtisCarter
RCDana
JonathanKatie

A single Kalabaw is residing at Tandang, while a minority of 3 Kalabaw now resides at Matsing. Ripe for the 2 Kalabaw boots before Merge.
(What would be exciting is to have Jonathan be the single Kalabaw at Tandang, but they continue to be challenge whores and the next two boots come from Matsing.)

F18 - F15: First 4 boots = (2 Matsing / 2 Kalabaw): Zane & Roxanne / Jeff & Dawson
F14 - F13: Pre-Merge Boots = (2 OLD Kalabaw): Dana or Katie & Carter
Merge @ F12: (6 Tandang / 4 Matsing / 2 Kalabaw)
Tandang: Michael ~ Lisa ~ Abi ~ Pete ~ RC ~ Artis
Matsing: Denise ~ Malcolm ~ Russell ~ Angie
Kalabaw: Jonathan ~ Dana or Katie

In closing, I suspect we will see Zane and Roxanne (from Matsing) and Jeff and Dawson (from Kalabaw) as the first 4 boots.
(It could be that Jeff and Carter are switched, but I have a feeling Jeff is completely out of his element here and will instantly be a tribal-unity crasher. Despite his physical ability.)

From there Kalabaw will be absorbed and split amongst Tandang and Matsing. Leaving tribes 7 to 7 OR (6+1) to (4+3).
Where Matsing will most likely lose the next two challenges and boot 2 OLD Kalabaw as a result of Tribal Councils.

Post Merge we will have the creation of the "Alliance of 6". These 6, plus Jonathan ALL make F7.
Leaving the next 5 boots as 2 Tandang (Artis and RC), 2 Matsing (Russell and Angie) and 1 Kalabaw (either Dana/Katie or Carter).

I'd even go further to speculate that Mitsang will lose IC 1, Kalabaw will lose IC 2 and IC 3, Matsing will lose IC 4, Kalabaw is absorbed and Matsing loses both IC 5 and IC 6 (booting OLD Kalabaw).
Post Merge is a little convoluted, but I gather that with the NEW "Alliance of 6", both Artis and RC will be early jurors. (Probably dependent on their early inter-tribal dynamics, someone is always on the outside of an alliance.) As well, Russell and Dana/Katie will also be early jurors. I imagine that Angie will last the longest and be cut just before F7 because of her likeability factor.



My pre-season Boot-List:
F18: Zane
F17: Dawson
F16: Jeff
F15: Roxanne
F14: Carter
F13: Dana/Katie
F12: Artis
F11: Russell
F10: RC
F9: Dana/Katie
F8: Angie
F7: Pete
F6: Jonathan
F5: Abi
F4: Malcolm
F3: Denise ~ Lisa ~ Michael
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forehead 928 desperate attention whore postings
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09-07-12, 12:59 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Discussing Pre-Merge Boots"
Great post tribe! Glad you posted this - very plausible.
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Arnold_Lorax 112 desperate attention whore postings
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09-07-12, 03:07 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Discussing Pre-Merge Boots"
Very nice!

One support of Artis on the jury and Dawson out pre-jury is this tweet from Artis yesterday (Jim Early saved a copy before it got deleted):

Artis @ARTIS_Survivor

@survivordawson Hey, we never got to speak .. hopefully we'll at least get somewhat acquainted here ***smile***

It was pulled later on as CBS monitors that stuff. What a doof for giving this away.

Dawson is a superfan who apparantly made it on the wrong tribe.

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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09-08-12, 06:23 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Discussing Pre-Merge Boots"
while my version did indeed touch on some possibility with this, the current buzz is that Dawson makes merge. Or at least someone from TWoP said that Missyae said that Dawson makes merge.

Could lead to a whole different version of the laminated color charts.

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Arnold_Lorax 112 desperate attention whore postings
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09-08-12, 09:41 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Discussing Pre-Merge Boots"
One thing to understand about Jim Early is that he hates people taking his stuff and not sourcing him and goes on ban sprees to try to eliminate the people doing it. He went after me unsuccessfully when he thought I stole some of his stuff and didn't credit him but then I think since then he has figured out that yes I do have a source and yes I do credit him when credit is do. He also does not list out boot orders on SWP he does give hints and he does answer questions and people try and put two and two together and draw there own conclusions. Thats not to say that he hasn't given away the final 3 or that he wont hint that so and so is wrong about this or that.

Just stuff to keep in mind.


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forehead 928 desperate attention whore postings
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09-12-12, 11:59 AM (EST)
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14. "RC tweet"
RC Saint-Amour‏@RC_Survivor

Probst: "Abi is not as charming as she thinks she is" UNDERSTATMENT OF THE YEAR

===
This could support RC not being part of the 6 person alliance with 4 fellow yellows.

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forehead 928 desperate attention whore postings
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09-21-12, 11:36 AM (EST)
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15. "Roxy goes ep2?"
In the Missyae thread, Arnold_Lorax posted more info. IF Missyae is right, there will be an unsuccessful alliance of Denise-Katie-Dana-Dawson. To make that a possibility, the next boot has to come from Matsing, since Missyae has Zane/Angie/Roxy/Russ/Dana/Katie as the pre-merge boots.

The ep2 IC is sled / solve tetris like puzzle / caller on tower:
http://xfinity.comcast.net/blogs/tv/2012/09/21/a-sneak-peek-at-the-next-survivor-philippines-immunity-challenge/

With some of the rope (sled pulling pics) from TDT here:
http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.347480632006274.83403.307751162645888&type=1

A future IC is diving for letters on cylinder blocks here:
http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.355615197859484.85680.307751162645888&type=1

In this future IC (note idols next to JP), we see Russ and Angie. So, Russ and Angie are safe ep2.

That leaves Roxy as the boot for ep2.

Provided that Missyae has the goods. This will be a good test for the Missyae spoilers.

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forehead 928 desperate attention whore postings
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09-27-12, 12:07 PM (EST)
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16. "Up next: Angie or Russ?"
By the same logic, Angie and Russ are the next two to go. No idea on the order yet.

"Grab your stuff. I got nothing for you. See you at tribal."

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10-04-12, 05:25 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
LAST EDITED ON 10-04-12 AT 06:23 PM (EST)

That smells like #6 (Penner) was not, while possibly #7
was. So, one possibility here is a 6-person alliance of
4 yellow (Mike, Lisa, Abi-Maria, Pete) and 2 blue (Denise,
Malcolm).

After last night's episode, it really looks like you nailed this exactly.

- RC is left out because she and Abi do NOT get along and Abi gets along with Pete. Plus, RC is a solid challenge threat after her awesome showing in last night's IC, doing multiple dives in a row.

- Malcolm fits in with his new tribe, and since he has a solid alliance with Denise, she's brought into the mix when the merge happens.

- Penner has a HII. Yes, Kalabaw knows it. When it gets down to 7, either Penner still has his HII and uses it, or Penner wins the Individual Challenge. Either way, Pete doesn't win the challenge and either gets voted out as a challenge threat/PITA or leaves with a sole vote from Penner when Penner plays the HII. If Pete gets voted out, it could also be courtesy a female majority.

- Since there has basically been a Kalabaw Pagonging, Penner's gone next because he doesn't win immunity and no longer has the HII.

- Once it's down to the final 5, get rid of the annoying one, Abi. Malcolm may be the strongest challenge threat, so he might win this one, but he doesn't win the final 4 challenge and is voted out then.

edited because i mistyped a number.

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10-10-12, 09:05 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
Medivac confirmed in the preview for next week. Focus on Kalabaw, with Jeff as the misdirection.

Poor Denise is the challenge curse as her new tribe loses AGAIN. While she was willing to be in a female alliance while the women outnumber the men, she's not willing to resort to the purple rocks (she expressed concern about the rocks in Ep 4).

I am further convinced that Denise wins the whole thing because I think we got the million dollar quote from Russell. He said that if Denise is in front of the jury, they'll say "You suck, you suck" (pointing to invisible finalists) "You win" (points to Denise).


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10-10-12, 09:09 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
I agree with every point. I would think that the editors had fun compiling the footage for ep4...
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10-11-12, 05:04 PM (EST)
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20. "Wow"
If the spoilers are correct and Tandang is intact at the merge, that would mean that Denise goes to each and every TC prior to the merge and doesn't get voted out.

Talk about OUTLAST. No one in a F3 could touch her on that aspect of the game.

It just hit me. I'm slow sometimes.

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10-11-12, 05:23 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Wow"
LAST EDITED ON 10-11-12 AT 05:25 PM (EST)

LOL! At this point in Survivor history Denise and Malcolm have each already been to more TCs than Michael.

Much as I would like to hold out hope that one of them can win, it's going to be tough, right now they only have each other's votes for win to count on.

That would be the greatest comeback in Survivor history.

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10-15-12, 11:08 AM (EST)
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22. "ep 5"
LAST EDITED ON 10-15-12 AT 11:49 AM (EST)

So far missyae's info has legs.

He spoiled Angie/Roxy/Russ/Zane as pre-merge boots. We figured out with vidcaps and his info regarding a four female alliance (Denise, Katie, Dawson, Dana), that those four Matsing boots had to be the first four boots.

I had been curious about the timing of Dana's medivac and ample time for the four female alliance to form. However, this pic confirms that Denise will have time to spend with Katie, Dawson, and Dana:

So, at this point one would have to expect for ep 5 (based on vidcaps and missyae):

Malcolm to Tandang; Denise to Kalabaw
Dana's medivac
Tandang wins IC
Kalabaw boots Dawson

As Bebo pointed out, Denise is wary of a purple-rock scenario. So, Denise avoiding a tie is one possible way for Dawson's boot.

Other things to keep in mind:
One promo is asking if Jeff Kent can keep his identity secret. We know Dawson knows. So, if Dawson goes, this is the last ep she can bring up Kent's identity.

Katie supposedly votes for Penner at some point. Not sure when that happens. However, according to missyae, Katie is a pre-merge boot as well. If she indeed goes next (once Dana and Dawson are gone), then Katie's vote for Penner happens in ep5 or ep6.

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10-28-12, 05:00 PM (EST)
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23. "Revisiting at the merge"
So far, we've gotten what was promised as premerge boots. That would mean the next four boots (in some order) are Carter, Jeff, Artis, and RC. Makes sense given the editing at this point.

We haven't gotten an alliance of 6, but we can figure it out because we have been given three solid pairs:
- Mike and Lisa (we were given that one at the very beginning)
- Malcolm and Denise
- Pete and Abi
In the preview, we were shown Malcolm and Lisa discussing an F3 alliance, so it would make sense for those two pairs to stick together. And given the RC/Abi edit, there's no way those two would be in a post-merge alliance.

So there's our alliance of 6. For Penner to go 6th, his idol had to have been flushed out - there's no way he'd avoid seeing the target on his back. I suspect he uses it at F7 and votes out Pete. Then he doesn't win the next IC and is gone.

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10-29-12, 03:23 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Revisiting at the merge"
I agree with all that.

The only comment I would add is about Jonathon. Why does he last so long? I believe we have seen in other seasons, sometimes the threat of an idol is enough to keep someone around in the game until the numbers are right to flush it out while still having enough votes to cover two bootees. My guess is that happens when Pete goes - the F4 will have numbers despite Jonathon's idol, so they can vote for Jonathon and Pete and the F4 are still safe.

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10-31-12, 01:24 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Revisiting at the merge"
Who ever said Jonathan wouldn't last long?

From a purely editing point of view, Jonathan has MUCH more legs than Michael does at lasting in this game.
And if I'm not mistaken, the addition of Michael in any final stance is purely rumor.

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11-05-12, 08:57 PM (EST)
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26. "Missyae Power Rankings week 8"
Missyae Survivor: Philippines Power Rankings Episode 8
By Jim Early in Survivor Whispers Premiere (Files) · Edit Doc

First off, please keep in mind this is not a bootlist and I am telling you right now, its gonna change a few more times. You can bank on the boot being at the bottom of the list each week but the other order will change. You fans need to stop trying to make this a bootlist. It is not a bootlist. Clear?

1. Jonathan Penner - We saw The Wizard pull off a saving move last week with the hidden immunity idol, this definitely saved him as he was the target and was leaving. Once again this week he is the target again so what does he do? He wins immunity and is safe at Tribal Council but still plays a huge role is who ends up leaving. How long can he keep this up with another idol? Even one of the best of the best cant win Immunity every week.

2. Denise Stapley - Denise wants to win, make no bones about it. She will do what it takes to win this game even if means screwing over Malcolm to get there. Nobody has ever been to every single TC for an entire season and thats a strong selling point to a jury. Dr. Jill is gonna continue to be proud of Denise.

3. Lisa Whelchel - Lisa is huge in the promos for this week and is going to make a move or two before its over. Family visit will be a huge turning point in The Game for her as her younger brother Justice opens her eyes to make her understand, this is a game, these are not your friends.

4. Michael Skupin - Mike was left answering lots of questions to fans about his vote last week at Tribal Council. From here on out his gameplay is just all over the board.

5. Malcolm Freberg - We have not seen any of the underhanded play yet from Malcolm. He is the type of player who is loyal to his main alliance Denise and he will pay for that. Great stuff coming family visit time from him and his brother Miles. I dont know how much will air but his brother got plastered on Southern Comfort and gave away some of Malcolm's plans like using his grandmother for his visitor when they hardly even speak to each other. Miles does vomit and he does visit the camp along with Skupin Junior and Lisa's brother Jason.

6. Abi Gomes - Abi has a HUGE HUGE Immunity Challenge moment coming up later, she gets an advantage at the auction and it pays huge dividends for her at the following Immunity Challenge and changes the entire game for one HUGE major player.

7. Carter Williams - Carter survives the tie vote this week at Tribal Council with Jeff Kent and stays in the game. Get this folks, new SPOILER that nobody has told you, he does make the family visit and his visitor is his mom Bianca. She participates in the family challenge but does not win.

8. Pete Yurkowski - Assclown

9. Artis Silvester - Clock is ticking

10. Jeff Kent - Jeff does not survive the tie vote at Tribal Council this week. He ends up being the victim and leaves after wanting Penner out so badly. You should have played with him and you would have gone alot further than trying to play both sides. I enjoyed watching you in MLB and on Survivor.


So thats it for this week, Penner wins Immunity, Tie vote for Carter and Kent at Tribal Council with Kent eventually being the next person to join the jury with RC.


It's gonna get better and better and some of you fans are gonna be very, very surprised at the outcome!!! Till next week

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11-05-12, 09:09 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Missyae Power Rankings week 8"
In his power rankings and his "clues" at Whispers premiere Missyae has been hiding that Carter makes the family visit and he has made it seem all along that Penner makes the family visit. He has been adiment that someone who is close to making the family visit gets sent home and there loved one who flies there doesn't get to see them afterall.

With RC gone last week and Kent leaving this week in a tie that leaves us with:

Artis
Pete
Penner
Carter
Abi
Malcom
Lisa
Scoop
Denise

We know from his episode 8 rankings that Malcom, Scoop, and Lisa all get the family visit reward and we know Carters Mom visits and I know personally that Malcom finishes in 4th place overall in the game. According to Missyae Denise will cut Malcoms throat and she has been spoiled to be in F3 so that makes perfect sense in this senario.

The next 2 out the door will be Artis and Pete and Penner just misses the family visit leaving us with final 6 of Carter Abi Malcom Lisa Scoop and Denise based on the recap of all this.


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11-07-12, 10:42 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
Just wanted to say 'Thank You' to all of the contributors to this thread. I really appreciate being able to find its information - organized and analyzed - in this Forum.

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11-14-12, 10:16 PM (EST)
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29. "Speculation on what's next"
OK, so the final 7 is still alive. But according to the spoilers, Carter is the next one to go. How does that happen?

Here's how the pieces seem to fit for me:
- Pete wins the next IC and is safe. Since the 5 know that Abi has an idol, they know they can flush it out but cannot take her out. So they have to cannibalize their 5, and Carter is the expandable one.
- Pete is supposed to go out 7th, which makes sense if anyone else wins immunity at F7.
- There is a spoiler that Abi buys a clue at the auction (the only way she could ever get a clue, imho) that allows her to win immunity at a key time. That means she wins F6 immunity, so another cannibalization means Penner goes.
- Abi doesn't win two in a row and is out at the next TC to be 5th.
- Denise is supposed to betray Malcolm at some point, so my guess is that it's a 3-1 vote against him at F4. Denise knows that Malcolm is the most likely of the other three to be able to beat her, so she makes sure he's not an option.
- There's supposed to be a lot of hostility against Lisa at the final TC, which I'm expecting to come from Abi. And even though Tandang has been claiming loyalty to each other, Pete and Abi would never vote for Skupin or Lisa, meaning that Denise easily wins.

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11-15-12, 01:51 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
LAST EDITED ON 11-15-12 AT 01:51 AM (EST)

If Malcolm is mature as he appears to be, I think he would be a 100% lock to vote for Denise. I see it as the Earl/Yau situation, where the "betrayed" understands the rationale behind the F4 boot.

Don't think there will be much jury poisoning given the level of maturity in this bunch (and the fact that nobody will listen to Abi/Pete). In fact RC said that Pete apologized to her fairly quickly for the idol clue incident. I don't think there will be revenge votes, but I still don't see how Mike and Lisa would beat Denise.

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11-15-12, 10:16 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
I thought I read (post 27 above) that Carter makes the family visit, which is at F6. As such 2 others go before him, likely Pete and Penner. Maybe Penner goes when Abi wins Indiv Immunity, and maybe Carter goes after Penner when Abi uses her HII. Other than Pete I don't recall hearing people say "Abi is the goat to take to the final", so I expect her to go when after Pete when her immunities run out.
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11-15-12, 11:27 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
I thought Lisa had commented that Abi, & perhaps all 3 in the mean alliance, were good to take to the end as they wouldn't get votes.
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11-15-12, 04:26 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
Tullfan was taking spec from Missyae early to form there intepretation of what the F7 would be but Missyae doesn't do bootlists and has never said that was the F7.

Carter does make the family visit. Peter and Penner are next to go, probably Peter first.

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11-15-12, 07:40 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
I had forgotten the part about Carter making the family visit. That info came out around the same time as the misinformation about the Jeff/Carter tie, so I had forgotten all of the stuff.

Spoilers also said that Penner just missed the family visit, so that would suggest Pete is next.


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11-15-12, 07:44 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
Yup its Pete next Missyae just posted it in Whispers premiere

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11-15-12, 08:00 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
That's crap! Penner's edit is Wayyyyy too good for a 6th or 7th placement. It's better than most left in the game. So this is hard to believe.
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11-15-12, 08:09 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
LAST EDITED ON 11-15-12 AT 08:09 PM (EST)

I think Penner is getting the best edit I've ever seen him get in all the seasons he's played. However, I also think it's a show of respect for him from Jiffy and the producers.



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11-15-12, 08:19 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
yeah but the spoiled final three, two have been nearly invisible and one is clueless about her stance in the game....It might be a show of respect but I guarantee it'll hurt the show the way they've edited him. Skupin is a follower, Lisa is confused and Denise is almost invisible. Horrible ending!
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11-15-12, 08:17 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
Penner is just more entertaining the the others ... a little of Abi-Normal & Artis go a long way, & Lisa's edit of wishy washy gets depressing. The TV show has to be entertaining for us to continue to watch. Penner's also providing a better analysis than the others are capable of.
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11-15-12, 08:21 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
then there you go, how is it entertaining when he leaves? none of the characters left are interesting! This is going to depress a lot of people. Leaving two episodes before the finale? wow! thats two episodes that won't be watched by many.
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11-15-12, 08:29 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
Reality show vs. scripted fiction. They have to work with what they've got. Malcolm & Denise both OK. If Lisa firms up her attitude, she becomes more entertaining. Of course, there wil be a dose or two of Abi along the way.
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11-15-12, 08:36 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
Well now we know why Skupin and Carter have been invisible. They probably both vote out Penner. And it pisses off Probst big time. What a let down!! Penner was dominating! Ugh I hate it when followers win. The Reunion will probably end up being all Penner centric any way.
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11-15-12, 08:41 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Speculation on what's next"
Reunion might be that way. Seems like they spent a lot of time on Russell in Samoa when Natalie won.
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11-16-12, 02:57 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
LAST EDITED ON 11-16-12 AT 02:58 AM (EST)

Artis placed 9th and was voted off Day 25. Are we 100% sure that its a Final 3? If you look at day boots of seasons with Final 2...

10th - Day 21
9th - Day 24
8th - Day 27
7th - Day 30
6th - Day 33
5th - Day 36
4th - Day 37
3rd - Day 38
Final 2 - Day 39

... and compare them with day boots of seasons with Final 3

10th - Day 27
9th - Day 30
8th - Day 31
7th - Day 33
6th - Day 36
5th - Day 37
4th - Day 38
Final 3 - Day 39

This is just me thinking but it does feel like its a final 2.

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11-16-12, 03:58 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
The one time they had a jury at even numbers, 8, was in Fans v Faves. That happened because late in the game James had to be medically removed because of a serious infection, but that occured too early in that episode cycle to be dramatic so they went ahead with a boot as well in that cycle, and switched gears from an intended F3 to an F2.

Cirie got screwed, she totally would have won that game otherwise.

So anyway, I think now at will be an F2 this time, though that wasn't the original intention.

Yay, this totally throws the F3 spoiler into the wind.

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11-16-12, 09:28 AM (EST)
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46. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
If F2, who are the two?

Spec was the F3 were Skupin, Denise, and Lisa. When there is an F3 immunity challenge at that time, I would expect if either Skup or Lisa wins that they would eliminate Denise (they will stay true to each other, and neither would think they can beat Denise). But Denise is very strong (phyical and determined) and despite her elfish size would be strong in any sort of F3 IC. Who would she keep? She probably beats either in a jury vote, but my guess is she would see Lisa as having more friends on the jury and keep Skup.

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11-19-12, 05:03 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
Who would she keep? She probably beats either in a jury vote,
but my guess is she would see Lisa as having more friends on the jury and keep Skup.

Denise would definitely take Skupin with her to the final. There has been plenty of talk about not letting a returning player win. And Abi has made her opinion of Skupin clear, so Denise would be ensured the psycho vote. I agree that she'd beat either of them in front of a jury, so it really doesn't matter.

Since we've been hit over the head with not letting a returning player win, I don't think one will. And if one does win, it would definitely be Penner instead of Skupin. Penner has earned the respect of so many people with his gameplay that he could pull it off.

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11-16-12, 12:50 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
I know about Micronesia having 8 juries. But Ozzy who was on 9th place was voted in Day 27. And Artis who is 9th in this season was voted in Day 25.

I was just saying that there's too many days left for a Final 3. So I really think its a Final 2.

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11-20-12, 08:52 PM (EST)
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49. "Skupin's tweet"
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-12 AT 08:58 PM (EST)


I thought this was interesting - the tweet previous to the first one said:

"Social Media has ruined #Survivor. You can tell who did well and who didnt
by how active their twitter act is. Im talking to you @mikeskupin"

... and here's the series of tweets in response:



Regarding the final tweet on there, if I'm interpreting it correctly then congratulations to Denise Stapley, the winner of S25. She's the only one of the F8 who isn't tweeting and each of the other 7 are pretty regular tweeters.

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11-21-12, 08:22 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: Skupin's tweet"
Tweet frequency probably doesn't tell you jack squat. Unless they've been telling each other how they voted, the winner probably doesn't know he/she won.
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51. "RE: Skupin's tweet"
Oh they all talk to each other, they can get a pretty good idea who has won - past contestants have mentioned how they weren't surprised by a result or knew it was coming from the talk going on.
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11-23-12, 07:41 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
According to this article.

http://#####.sheknows.com/2012/11/06/survivor-philippines-finale-scheduled-for-december-16/

Dec 16 is the final episode.

Nov 28 -->> 6 people left
Dec 5 -->> 5 people left
Dec 12 -->> 4 people left

Dec 16 -->> Final 4.

I'm 90% sure that its a Final 2.

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-12, 04:11 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
I'm 90% sure that its a Final 2.

Go for it!
99.9% F2!!!

Woohoo! Booyah! and BOOSH!
Love the F2's.
(Although, there are ways of still having an F3. So keep your enthusiasm to a minimum.)
Get this... LSD finale. First? Last? How about bassackwards? Go Psychologists!

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Estee 55194 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-12, 10:06 AM (EST)
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54. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
I can easily picture a two-hour finale where Abi's jury non-question takes up forty-eight minutes. Before reaching the first comma.
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Arnold_Lorax2 177 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-12, 03:59 PM (EST)
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55. "Missyae Power Rankings Week 11"

1. Denise Stapley - Denise has continued to put herself into great position all season long to win this thing. She has one huge move that some will consider dirty that will put her over the top. Shes smart enough to know who she can and cannot beat.

2. Lisa Whelchel - I get exhausted watching her play so emotionally. After that final four offer to Penner was declined, she went to Penner again to talk to him but Penner already had a final 3 deal with 2 other players. Thats why he turned it down.

3. Mike Skupin - If you started a drinking game where you took a shot each time Skupin flipped away from a deal or alliance, you would be stone cold drunk and in rehab when this season ends. In the end, it killed his chances of winning. Nobody respected his game play. After that final four offer to Penner was declined, Penner went to Skupin and asked him, "what are you doing, we already have a final 3 deal with you, me, Carter" Yes, the tricky editors at CBS has not shown a final 3 deal between Penner, Skupin and Carter. Shame on you CBS!

4. Malcolm Freberg - Hands down would have won if he had gotten to the final 3. In the end, his best ally shot him in the back. Miles and Malcolm will win the family visit reward and provide plenty of entertainment NEXT WEEK. They pick 2 others to share in the reward.

5. Abi Gomes - Abi gets an advantage at the next Immunity Challenge during the auction this week. She uses this advantage to take out a hall of famer. She is playing the game. Make no mistake about it. She knows she is THE TARGET but she does what she needs to do to stay in the game. This week she wins Immunity. Next week?

6. Carter Williams - Carter is still just sliding on along. He was part of the final 3 deal with Penner and Skupin and if you look at these rankings you see how Skupin treated that deal. As far as Carter being the mastermind behind the challenge strategy, I wont spoil that fun for him he is having but down the road I will reveal the real truth about that.

7. Jonathan Penner - Yes Penner fans, it is his time this week. He loses out to Abi at the Immunity Challenge and you can see where he and Carter are slotted now. Even though he had a final three deal with Carter and Skupin, somehow Carter and Penner are the bottom two on this list now. In my opinion he should have at least pretended to accept the final four deal but I understand why he didnt. Penner was playing a winners game. He was doing things the right way to win jury votes. He was looking ahead. Thats one reason hes gotten such a great edit, he was loved and respected by the players. Very few went home with that honor. His wife made that 15.5 hour flight just to find out, he was voted out. So no family visit for the Penners. Tough ending for a definite Hall of Fame player. Thanks for the great entertainment from you time on Survivor Mr. Penner. You have earned your spot in the annals of Survivor history and I have heard more than one lady say, "he's got the prettiest blue eyes." Kudos Jonathan, great job my man!!!


Next week: Can Abi win Immunity again? If not, how can she survive another week? Will Carter reveal the final 3 deal that he had with Penner and Skupin? The family visits begin and we see a hubby, a 20 year younger brother, a son, a wild brother, a mom and the adorable Miss Vera!!!!! Could be the best overall family visit ever. Hyperventilating, lying, scheming, and maybe the proudest mom ever.

See you next week!!!

Missyae

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Murphy3126 104 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-12, 04:58 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Missyae Power Rankings Week 11"
Odd, no reason for Penner not to bring Lisa in as a 4th, while keeping Skupin & Carter as final 3. Whether they vote out Pete, or blindside Malclom or Denise, Penner's final 4 (& final 3) control the game. Big error for Penner not to accept.
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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-12, 11:51 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Missyae Power Rankings Week 11"
I think Penner *did* try to bring Lisa in - we saw all those talks he had with her but perhaps they edited out the bits where he tried to convince Lisa to join in but she waffled and he decided he couldn't trust her.
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Murphy3126 104 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-12, 00:25 AM (EST)
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58. "RE: Missyae Power Rankings Week 11"
I agree Penner did try to bring Lisa in earlier. I interpreted Penner's declining to join Skupin & Lisa for a final 3 alliance as a way for Penner to keep his options open. Penner wanted Lisa & Skupin to just stick to the plan & get Pete & Abi out next. Meanwhile Penner could do a different alliance if he wanted.
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ASurvivorFan 23 desperate attention whore postings
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11-29-12, 05:16 AM (EST)
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59. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
I wonder if next week would be Carter's week to go. Kinda weird that the spoilers of the Top 7 is correct aside for Carter. And Carter is in the Top 6. If someone would be forgotten you'd think it would be Pete or Penner who finished at the Top8 and Top7 respectively.
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Arnold_Lorax2 177 desperate attention whore postings
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11-29-12, 09:35 AM (EST)
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60. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
Yes, Carter is next to go and then Abi Marie

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toad8098 196 desperate attention whore postings
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11-29-12, 06:02 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers S25"
wondering how the jury votes will go?? just speculating(please move if needed)

Lisa/Denise Final 2:
RC - Lisa
Jeff - Denise
Artis - Lisa
Pete - Denise
Penner - Denise
Carter - Denise
Abi - Lisa
Malcolm - Denise
Mike - Lisa

Denise wins 5-4

Mike/Denise Final 2
RC - Mike
Jeff - Denise
Artis - Denise
Pete - Denise
Penner - Mike
Carter - Denise
Abi - Mike
Malcolm - Denise
Lisa - Mike

Denise wins 5-4

Lisa/Mike Final 2
RC - Mike
Jeff - Lisa
Artis - Lisa
Pete - Lisa
Penner - Mike
Carter - Mike
Abi - Mike
Malcolm - Lisa
Denise - Lisa

Lisa wins 5-4

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