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"Promo clues"
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Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-12, 10:31 AM (EST)
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"Promo clues"
I thought it would be a good idea to post all of the promo "hype" for each episode and compare it with the actual story and eventual boot....

Episode 1:















First Boot: Med-evac Kourtney

Episode 2:

See the girls tribe going up in flames and we see Nina on the side...

The only tease was "You might not get to keep it", and it was shown after Sabrina was opening the HII. We already knew that she had given it to Colton.

2nd boot: Nina

Episode 3:



Interesting to note right after alliances broken there was Colton and then there was Bill, who was shaking hands with Jonas and seemingly Troy. Bill was a member of the buff boy alliance with Matt/Mike/Jay, so the alliance that is breaking is between Bill and Jonas....a member of the buff boys vs the misfits...then, immediately...



Tensions rising in reference to the tensions between the two tribes. When the guys wouldn't share their embers...Then, and, the LIES...



This is when we see Troy lying to Matt, that he'll be with him, then we see him go back and tell Colton and Jay that he had lied to Matt.

Then, we get that Troyzan's lies are just beginning....it's not survivor if your not lying! So Troy is going to be lying multiple times throughout the game!

***This episode the voice over clues in the vidcaps are extremely helpful and telling. Note that they told us the story in a very straightforward manner...Troy, who Matt thought was in his alliance broke that alliance. He lied to Matt and then noted, it's not Survivor if your not lying. Matt was the boot.

Episode 4:






For episode 4 we can see that the teases say that for the first time something is going to change the game forever, and we had alot of shots of the guys walking in their lineup and then talking among themselves. We could indeed see that the guys tribe was going to do something, for the first time, that would change at least this series forever....they gave up their numbers....

Boot: Bill

Episode 5:




Episode 5 was clearly the shuffle, and we were shown the smashing of the eggs with the paint. So, with the merge, it was clear for us to see that a "Super Villain" was emerging, then followed by all of the vidcaps of Colton telling all of them what to do next.

Boot: Monica

There were'nt many promo vidcap voiceover hints because "super villain" spelled it ALL out.

Episode 6:

immediately followed by this....we see that Colton, Alicia, and Christina are not comfortable....And, one of them was the boot/evacuee.

Then, don't trust anyone, stamped OVER Colton....then we see Christina, who you think is the boot, but turned out she wasn't...



Don't miss the final moments of someone this episode because you will be shocked to know who is going out via med-evac....

Med-evac: Colton

Episode 7:

Followed by Jay's confessional about now we are one big happy family...then...

immediately followed by Jonas and Tarzan's arguing....which was our BOOT.


And...

One more chance to find a HII...followed by...

Troy, who indeed found the idol.

So, the episode 7 vidcap voiceover hints....One tribe, one big mess, one more chance. One big tribe, the merge, one big mess between Tarzan and Jonas (Jonas the boot), and one more chance that Troy capitalizes on.

Boot: Jonas

Episode 8:

This whole episode revolves around Kim/Chelsea....and secondarily Kat and Sabrina....these women are torn between their old and new alliances

We see pics of them....Kim/Chelsea, Kat, and Sabrina:



Their big delimma...

Troy?

Jay?

V/O: It's the biggest Survivor shocker yet.

A major player is about to...

Which is followed immediately with...Kim...

....noting, we can start sending these guys home. Then, we see...the guys....Leif and Tarzan....

Michael and Jay....

But, interestingly NO TROY. Then we have Jay..."I think it's just a safe vote to knock out a girl."


If the whole context of this promo is about Kim, Chelsea, Kat, and Sabrina going after someone in their nuSalani Alliance, then our only boot candidates are:

Michael
Troyzan
Jay

So...

Michael has the least presence in the vidcaps...subtle, but clearly there. He had one confessional last week, a spike of one?....really his only story that has been told about him is that he was a villain in the first episode, and that he stirs the pot. His story that is emerging now, that we have mostly heard from the others there, is that he is a physical threat to win immunities.

Troy: Very present in the vidcaps. His story has been steady throughout this series...he's a player, he's a liar, and will happily lie to stay in the game, he's found an HII, and he won his first individual immunity. This would be a huge blindside, indeed. Seen feeling a bit arrogant last episode when he screamed, this is my Island...certainly a major player. He had a very large spike last week which could signal his imminent demise.

Jay: Very present in the vidcaps. He really doesn't have much of a story but he was able to navigate from the buff boys to the misfits, and had a secret alliance with Colton. He initiated the core 4 alliance with Kim/Chelsea. He is seemingly one step ahead...he is seen in the vidcaps speculating that it could indeed be him...but, then we hear him talking about the safe vote getting rid of a girl...Definitely would be a huge blindside, and he is a major player. Confessionals are dead even...no spike, no dip....which does not lend favor to his demise...fwiw.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Promo clues Blind Freddy 04-01-12 1
   RE: Promo clues tikigirlie 04-01-12 2
       RE: Promo clues parathor 04-02-12 3
       Promo clues, boot speculation Flowerpower 04-02-12 4
           RE: Promo clues, boot speculation NedraSue 04-02-12 5
               RE: Promo clues, boot speculation Flowerpower 04-02-12 7
           RE: Promo clues, boot speculation beaglemaster 04-02-12 6
           RE: Promo clues, boot speculation jasonkola 04-02-12 8
           RE: Promo clues, boot speculation parathor 04-02-12 9
               RE: Promo clues, boot speculation Flowerpower 04-02-12 10
                   RE: Promo clues, boot speculation knuckles487 04-02-12 11
                       RE: Promo clues, boot speculation Flowerpower 04-02-12 12
                           RE: Promo clues, boot speculation jasonkola 04-02-12 13
                           RE: Promo clues, boot speculation knuckles487 04-02-12 14
                           RE: Promo clues, boot speculation pobblebonk 04-03-12 15
               RE: Promo clues, boot speculation Flowerpower 04-04-12 16
 Promo Clues ep 9 Flowerpower 04-08-12 17
   RE: Promo Clues ep 9 tribephyl 04-08-12 18
       RE: Promo Clues ep 9 Arnold_Lorax 04-08-12 19
       RE: Promo Clues ep 9 Flowerpower 04-08-12 20
           RE: Promo Clues ep 9 jasonkola 04-08-12 21

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Blind Freddy 444 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-12, 12:54 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Promo clues"
LAST EDITED ON 04-02-12 AT 01:33 AM (EST)

Thanks for detailing this out in storyboard form. It helps lay things out for better analysis.

One thing I would like to mention which I don't think has been highlighted yet is in/re to targeting.

I've noticed (maybe I missed something along the way), but of the 'major players' everyone seems to have a target mentioned in the promos....except Troy.

- Chelsea: wants Greg out. No one else does tho...the rest want to take Greg to the end(as per Jonas interviews/Kat Insider confessional)

- Jay: previously said he wanted Mike out, feels he's a chal threat and competition for his 'spot'. But he also says(currently) in the E8 webpromo that he wants a girl out...no specifics.

- Kim:: wants a guy out possibly, as teased by several comments in the promos/preview....no specifics tho.

- Troy: I'm not sure who he wants out. But he wants to go to the end "w/this group"...what group is that...the Core4? (likely)

So if Troy is promoed in a way showing him not to be targeting anyone...does that imply that he is a potential victim/the one to be 'played'?

Just throwing that out there in trying to fit all the clues/teasers together.

Thoughts?

----------------
Edit for several typos to make it readable

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tikigirlie 112 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-12, 08:19 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Promo clues"
Hi, long time lurker here.

I keep thinking that production's use of "major player" is a lot broader.

Wouldn't an elimination of Alicia be a shocker (to her and viewers) and a blindside? I keep thinking that Jeff's tease that the men must regain control shows that a woman might get eliminated. The elimination would appease the Core 4 men but still keep that alliance under wraps.

Though she is a great goat to bring to the FTC.

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04-02-12, 08:18 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Promo clues"
LAST EDITED ON 04-02-12 AT 08:20 AM (EST)

Alicia has had the spike-dip in confessionals (so probably on the radar of choices), and she's part of the girl allianc (so it would be kind of a shock). She's my second best guess (after Troy, who is soooo clearly leaving this week)

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04-02-12, 09:16 AM (EST)
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4. "Promo clues, boot speculation"
LAST EDITED ON 04-02-12 AT 09:26 AM (EST)

Thanks for the thoughts, BF and Tikigirlie...

Interesting that Troy doesn't mention his boot choice....he could be the target, OR, he could end up choosing the target, and we don't hear his choice because his is the one that is booted....

Tikigirlie: You raise a point that I can't get past either....Jiffy's tweet regarding, "The women are now in charge. The men MUST stop them".

Here is how I see it at this point: Thanks to VG, I now believe that the reward challenge is won by Kim, Christina, Sabrina, Leif, Michael, while the losers, Kat, Alicia, CHelsea, Jay, and Troyzan are back at camp. (Tarzan could have sat out and gone with the winners?) We hear Chelsea say, "Who's next to go?", and Kat replies..."He's a big threat. He should be taken out, ASAP." Clearly, they are talking about Michael, who was identified as the biggest threat at the last TC by Jonas.

Then, when the others return to camp, Kat takes Sabrina and Kim away to tell them their thoughts about targeting Michael...Kim replies: "So, we have to decide if we're going to, like, make our move. Because this is never going to be the same. In other words, if we move against our nuSalani it will be apparent that we are sticking with our original tribe, old Salani.

Then we hear Kim in a confessional later..."I feel like it's time for the girls to take over this game, and "We can start sending these guys home.". The plan is set after the RC, most likely Michael will have shined...again. The girls are ready to take out Michael and start sending all of the guys home.... So, what happens next?

1. Michael either wins the IC or he doesn't. If he doesn't, he'll be voted out unanimously by the women. Leif and Tarzan could even vote for him as well....

If Michael wins the IC, which could indeed happen, then their plan is foiled. So, if the girls want to target another guy, and they want to go for the "biggest threat", then they would indeed want to go after Troy or Jay. At this point, we have to think what would Kim and Chelsea do? I really don't know. I think it would indeed give them pause. We hear Kim in a confessional right before TC..."I'm not exactly sure how this is about to go down." Because we hear her say this, I am led to believe that Michael will be off the table, and their plan is now complicated.

I will also say that a major player getting played doesn't have to mean that the major player is the boot. It means that one of the major players may be "out of the loop"....thinking it will go one way, and it goes another. This is what I believe will happen.

If Sabrina, Kat, Alicia, Christina decide to target one of Jay or Troy, if Michael wins IN, then Chelsea and Kim will either have to vote with them, OR, vote for someone else and not tell them. Then there will be either 6 votes for either Jay/Troy OR 4 votes say for Jay, 2 votes for someone else.

Now, what will Chelsea and Kim tell Jay/Troyzan....Jay tells us that at least he and Troy are thinking..."There's just too many girls that could start knocking out all these guys.". Then he goes on to tell us that he is aware that HE could be the target..."They very well might come after me."

This tells us that the guys are well aware of the girls plan....they know that the girls want to get out the threats for IC wins. We then hear Jay say, I think it's just a safe vote to knock out a girl. Most likely Jay is echoing what the core 4 have decided....let's just knock out either one of Alicia or Christina. A girl from nuManono.

Here is where I suspect things change.

So old Salani plans to vote Jay/Troy. The core 4 decide to vote out a girl from nuManono - Alicia/Christina. Now I think that Troy will organize all of the guys to vote out one woman. Here's what could happen. All women minus Chelsea/Kim vote for Jay (4 votes), Chelsea/Kim vote for Christina (2), all men vote for Kat (5). Kat would go home, Chelsea and Kim are major players who are played by the guys. Kat is blindsided as she was a nuSalani and a GIRL. We heard Kim say right before TC..."I'm not exactly sure how this is about to go down." Also, remember that Troy has said....It ain't Survivor unless you are lying...he could be the one most likely to play the girls???

At least this is one scenario. Scenario number 2: Old Salani wants to target Jay...Kim and Chelsea both vote with old Salani, 6 votes to Jay/Troy. They are blindsided, and played by the girls.

Third scenario, as mentioned above, Michael is vulnerable, Kim/Chelsea agree to vote out a nuManono girl with the core 4, and then they vote with old Salani and take out Michael, who is a blindside because he was thought to be in the dominant tribe, nuSalani, which was supposed to pick off nuManono. Troy and Jay are played by the girls.

In the end, it will be Kim and Chelsea. Will they vote for either Jay or Troy, OR will they vote for either Alicia or Christina...the safe vote...either way, the major guys or the major girls will end up getting played by the other.

Now, why do I think Kat? Because she is on nuSalani and she is a girl...and, if it's a girl going home, Kim/Chelsea have to get played, and if it were the one they expect - Christina/Alicia, then they wouldn't have been played.

So, for me, there are 3 possible scenario's that can include all of the clues, hints, and promos. As Tikigirlie noted, the biggest reason I still entertain that it could possibly be a girl going home is this tweet by Jiffy...

next week it picks up even more. The women are now in charge. The men MUST stop them!

For me, Jeff is screaming at us....if the women get a guy out here the rest of the season is boring....but, we have heard that this season is really up and down and full of surprises. IF it really is going to be a good season with surprises, than a girl does have to go here....fwiw...

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NedraSue 107 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-12, 09:40 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
I think what will happen, is Michael wins IC, they plan to vote for Troy, Troy plays his HII and then the next highest vote getter is Kat. Kat goes home.

Do we know, if Michael plays his HII later in the game?


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04-02-12, 10:34 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
Hi Nedra...do you mean Troy? Michael doesn't have an HII. And, you are right, that is another scenario that could play out. Girls stick together and target Troy, he plays the HII, and one of the girls is bounced...

One thing that I also want to point out is that Kim is appearing to have ALOT of confessionals in the next episode. I count at least 3 already...last ep she had a dip, and had only 1 confessional. So, it appears that Kim is set up for a spike in confessionals....HMMMM. Very interesting indeed. Serious food for thought...

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04-02-12, 10:30 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
>if the women get a
>guy out here the rest
>of the season is boring...

My sentiments exactly. If they get either Jay or Troy out this early I see things will get very predicable, not so much for any of the other men though. Shattering the core alliance now would leave only the women's alliance and no one to challenge their rule. The men would leave one right after the other then up the food chain for an all ladies F5. Kim, Sab, Chelsea and your choice of 2 of the remaining 3.

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04-02-12, 01:42 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
FP I really like your speculation it gives me a lot to think about. I especially like your "out of the loop" idea it makes sense and makes me consider a couple of different possibilities.

I was thinking if Troy and Jay were to get the guys to vote out Kat. That would be a betrayal of the Core 4. They would have essentially broken that alliance up. If they knew they were going to betray their alliance it would make more sense to target the major power player such as Kim.

I like your third scenario. It fits the clues except I am not sure it fits the clue of the whole tribe feeling insecure, just the guys would feel insecure. If a girl goes home I would think the whole tribe would feel insecure.

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04-02-12, 02:46 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
I love this, FP! - but it really hinges on the men acting "functional" (which hasn't happened all season), and in Troy/Jay going against the core-four:
--- Last week, Jay shot down Chelsea's idea of changing their boot choice... I doubt he'll change his mind this episode. Plus he seems chummy with both Kim (beach scene/ice cream) & Chelsea (long walk on the beach)
--- Last week, Troy ran off to squeal to/warn Jonas about his target. Troy could stir up trouble again. Maybe. This c4 betrayal seemed underplayed to me. Did they even add a snake or spider or anything to show us he was being tricky?

Your theory could work with Alicia - she thinks she's in with the girls, so her vote-off would be a "shock" (especially if some of Christina/Kat/Sabrina were unaware that this was happening). She had the spike/dip in confessionals (my favorite theory). Plus (as mentioned) she's literally "next to" (the word) "go" (this might be too clever for the editors, though) - :


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04-02-12, 03:02 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
Yes, Alicia is a very viable boot...no BUTTS about it...
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knuckles487 178 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-12, 08:01 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
I just get the feeling that they are being fairly straightforward with us this week. The promo says "who will they choose" followed by a pic of Troy with his name on the pic. Then, "who will they betray" followed by a pic of Jay with his name on it. It just makes me think they are flat out telling us the women will keep Troy for a bit and vote out Jay. It could be because Michael wins II or some other reason they choose Jay, but he gets betrayed by his former tribe members.

Later when it says something about then they can send the guys home and shows a pic of Tarzan and Leif it could be we are being told the women will use those two to help send home Jay and Michael which are shown in the very next picture, and then they can cut loose those two losers.

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04-02-12, 08:48 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
knuckles....glad to see you respond to the vidcap voiceovers...you know, when I interpreted those vidcaps, when they asked who will they choose, I thought it meant that they would choose TROY as the BOOT target, which would betray Jay....Jay gets betrayed because his core four boots one of their own...So, I interpreted it as Troy will be the boot.

So, I read it opposite what you read it as....let's take a survey....let me know how you interpreted "who will they choose" with Troy's pictures following that, and then "who will they betray?" With Jay's picture after it....thanks.

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04-02-12, 09:09 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
LAST EDITED ON 04-02-12 AT 09:10 PM (EST)

I have actually considered it both ways. When I first read it I thought choosing Troy for the boot. but after thinking about it for some time I started to see it the other way around. Also it is possible that they choose Troy but he wins the IC so they vote out Jay. Food for thought.

My gut tells me Micheal is safe this week.

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04-02-12, 10:14 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
LAST EDITED ON 04-02-12 AT 10:19 PM (EST)

I am reading it the way I am I think because to me "who will they betray" seems to clearly mean betray as in vote out. I'm just not seeing betray as meaning voting out one person and thus that action is betraying another. (in this case voting out Troy and betraying Jay by doing so) A more precise betrayal would be against whoever (or whomever?) they vote out.


eta: fixing pebkac issues.

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15. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
Hi Flower

I love analyzing these caps!
I took it as "who will they choose" with Troy's pictures following as they will choose to keep Troy in their alliance
and "who will they betray?" With Jay's picture after it" as who they will betray.

I think that the group who loses reward will be talking about booting Michael because he is so strong & such a threat. Then I think Michael wins immunity & the scrambling begins & they have to go for the 2nd strongest male-Jay.
However I think Jay may get word of the girls plan (via Troyzan) & get the guys on board & get Christina to vote with them. They then vote for 1 of the girls-which I think could be Kim (she is under the Gets Played vidcap) or Kat.

Fun week!

Poppy


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04-04-12, 07:32 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Promo clues, boot speculation"
Parathor you make an excellent point here that I want to highlight...

but it really hinges on the men acting "functional" (which hasn't happened all season), and in Troy/Jay going against the core-four:

Couple that with Troy's confessional: "I want to stick with this group to the very end."...Troy is telling us that he is with the core 4 and will vote with them, most likely. Which tells us a lot, indeed!



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04-08-12, 11:23 AM (EST)
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17. "Promo Clues ep 9"
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-12 AT 11:24 AM (EST)

Last week the promo hype was:

Between Alliances, which really meant that KIM (also seen Chelsea, Sab, Kat) were between alliances...the question was would they start cutting the guys and commit to their girls alliance, (Chelsea, KIm, Sab, Kat, and Alicia/Christina), or would they stick with their nuSalani alliance...(Chelsea, Troy, Jay, Sab, Kat, Michael)?

Who would they choose? Troy
Who would they betray? Jay

A major player is about to get played...Which turned out to be Troy, played by Kim.

She got all of nuSalani to vote with her in booting one of their own, Michael. Because he was the biggest challenge threat. Clearly, Kim is controlling the game and she is using Chelsea, Sabrina, and Kat to do it. This week the promo notes:

Interesting to note when they say that 10 remain, only 7 remain in the challenge at the time of the picture...Christina, Tarzan, and Sabrina are already out....interesting!

Then we have...

....followed by Tarzan telling Troy that "these girls are plotting to knock us all out"...then Jay working to get Kat..."we need you to move forward".

Followed by Kim telling us..."I'm ready to draw the line....turn this quick on the guys" Followed by doubt from Chelsea..."I don't know if I can do this"...and then supposed responses to that from Alicia, "PLEAE", and Sabrina's, "time to put on the big girl panties"...

Last week, there was a dilemma...Kim, Chelsea, Kat, and Sabrina, the four girls in the original alliance within Salani, now the four girls that remain in the nuSalani...they were caught between alliances and who would they choose and who would they betray. Well, they chose the biggest physical threat from their nuSalani, with Troy's and Jay's blessings, apparently.

So, this week, there are 10 remaining. The hype is go big, or go home. Most likely someone is going to drop hints that they have a HII, and they they will use it, clearly a boot target will try and bluff their way through. If it works, an outlier will most likely go home. If it doesn't, Jay will most likely go home. Jay, because he seems far smarter than Troy....of course Troy could have far more confidence than Jay as he is in possession of an HII...

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

04-08-12, 04:23 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Promo Clues ep 9"
What's interesting to me is who seems to actually be "Going Big".
Jay is going big, Troyzan is going big, Kim is going big, Tarzan, Alicia and Sabrina seem on board with someone going big, and Kat is asked to go big...
BUT...
Chelsea is having difficulties.
If the episode is indeed touting the need to go big or go home, I venture to say Chelsea is indeed in trouble.
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Arnold_Lorax 112 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-12, 05:15 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Promo Clues ep 9"
I would agree with you except that the episode title is "go out with a bang"...to me this means someone who tries to go big goes out with a bang anyway. Jay. This promo recap makes me think even more that for sure it is Jay (I posted my thoughts why in a different thread).

In my opinion Chalsea is super safe.

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04-08-12, 05:18 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Promo Clues ep 9"
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-12 AT 05:20 PM (EST)

I agree, Tribe. The only one that apparently is having difficulty with going big is Chelsea....and, if she can't put on her big girl panties, what will that mean?

Thanks for your spec, Arnold. And, you are right, we have to consider the title as hype for the promo as well...So, as you note, if someone is going out with a bang, it's going to be one of the ones that is ready to go big...



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jasonkola 240 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-12, 08:03 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Promo Clues ep 9"
I would like to add that the guys are the ones in trouble, down in numbers. They will need to go big or go home.

Also in the promo's it has been quoted that Kim said "To turn on the guys this quick", But I believe it was said by Chelsea right before she says "I do not know if I can do this."

I also do not think Chelsea is in trouble. If any of the girls were in trouble I would think it would be Christina.

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