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"S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
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Blind Freddy 444 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-12, 11:00 AM (EST)
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"S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Thread for discussion of E7 Title/Teasers/Touts/Tweets....
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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... PepeLePew13 03-21-12 1
 RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Flowerpower 03-21-12 2
   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... bertygal13 03-21-12 3
       RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... parathor 03-22-12 6
           RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... bertygal13 03-22-12 9
   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... tribephyl 03-21-12 4
 CBS E7 Press Release Blind Freddy 03-22-12 5
   RE: CBS E7 Press Release byoffer 03-22-12 7
   RE: CBS E7 Press Release Flowerpower 03-22-12 8
       RE: CBS E7 Press Release NedraSue 03-22-12 10
           RE: CBS E7 Press Release Arnold_Lorax 03-22-12 11
       RE: CBS E7 Press Release tribephyl 03-22-12 12
           This is odd... Flowerpower 03-22-12 13
               RE: This is odd... dabo 03-22-12 14
               RE: This is odd... tribephyl 03-22-12 15
           RE: CBS E7 Press Release knuckles487 03-22-12 16
 RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Outfrontgirl 03-22-12 17
   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Karchita 03-23-12 18
   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... dabo 03-23-12 19
       RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Outfrontgirl 03-23-12 20
           RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Flowerpower 03-23-12 21
               RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... CTgirl 03-23-12 22
                   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... parathor 03-23-12 23
               RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... PepeLePew13 03-23-12 24
                   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... jasonkola 03-23-12 25
                       RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... dabo 03-23-12 26
                           RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Outfrontgirl 03-23-12 27
                               RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... PepeLePew13 03-23-12 29
                                   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... michel 03-25-12 50
                               RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... dabo 03-23-12 30
                                   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... knuckles487 03-23-12 31
                       RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... PepeLePew13 03-23-12 28
                           RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... tmontgomery71 03-23-12 32
                           RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Arnold_Lorax 03-23-12 33
                               RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Flowerpower 03-24-12 34
 Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor Blind Freddy 03-24-12 35
   RE: Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor PepeLePew13 03-24-12 36
       RE: Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor Karchita 03-25-12 42
   RE: Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor Arnold_Lorax 03-24-12 37
       RE: Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor Blind Freddy 03-24-12 40
 RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... jasonkola 03-24-12 38
 Interesting.... Flowerpower 03-24-12 39
   RE: Interesting.... Karchita 03-25-12 41
 RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Outfrontgirl 03-25-12 43
   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Blind Freddy 03-25-12 44
       RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Arnold_Lorax 03-25-12 45
       RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... jasonkola 03-25-12 46
           RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... Flowerpower 03-25-12 47
               RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... dabo 03-25-12 48
                   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... jasonkola 03-25-12 49
                   RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in ... tribephyl 03-26-12 51
                       HII Flowerpower 03-26-12 52

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-12, 11:25 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Hmmm. If two leave tonight as most of us are believing, that leaves 11 people. They pretty much have to have a merge now with an expected 7-4 split in tribes, but that would mean that we have a F2 and jury of 9, unless the second person tonight joins the jury to make it a F3/9 jury - or it's a 7 person jury.
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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-12, 03:06 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I predict someone who has been struggling to stay alive week after week, utters the title. Once a merge comes, there are bigger fish to fry, and if you are weak, you can last likely much longer....fwiw.
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bertygal13 19 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-12, 04:50 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I have a feeling that the "Beauty" is in reference to Chelsea, and that she either 1) Starts taking control by making her own alliances or 2) she gets the boot because of the merge
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parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 02:56 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I thought this, too. A clever play on words.

In vidcaps, she's seen walking away with Jay. If she's being sneaky, then does Jay out her? Or does Kim get suspicious?

I think this is Chelsea's "coming out" party. She becomes a character, finally.

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bertygal13 19 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 05:06 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Just listened to Colton's interview with Rob and find it interesting that he said his plan for the merge was that he was "going to get all his minions to vote out Chelsea, Kim's right arm"
I think that's a huge indication that Chelsea has a target on her back in episode 7. And now, I'm totally convinced that "Beauty" is Chelsea...and she is the likely candidate to get the boot.
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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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03-21-12, 05:21 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I'm with you completely.

The beauty in a merge is exactly that; For those who are disposable (see weak) in the tribal stage suddenly become necessary to eliminate the stronger players from this point forward.
Therein lies the beauty in a merge.
Someone who was picked on, always a target, suddenly gains some power through the shift in dynamics and the boost in targets.

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Blind Freddy 444 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 02:50 PM (EST)
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5. "CBS E7 Press Release"
Here's the E7 PR from CBS.....

-----------------------
03.22.2012

CORKS FLY AND CELEBRATIONS COMMENCE FOLLOWING THE TRIBAL MERGE, ON "SURVIVOR: ONE WORLD, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 28

CHEAT TWEET: Corks fly and celebrations commence following the tribal merge on #Survivor Wed, March 28 @ 8pmET/PT! http://bit.ly/GR3NED

"The Beauty In A Merge" Allegiances are thrown into question when one tribe member makes a bold move at tribal council, on SURVIVOR: ONE WORLD, Wednesday, March 28 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.
-------------------------

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byoffer 15808 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 02:57 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: CBS E7 Press Release"
So is the move made at the TC we saw last night (ie when they merged) or at the next TC? It would be hard to see a lot of
"allegiance questioning" in E7 if the move is made at the next TC.

My guess is that E7 will begin right after E6 TC and someone is already making a move, and that move will stir the pot for E7.

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03-22-12, 03:58 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: CBS E7 Press Release"
one tribe member makes a bold move at tribal council

FWIW, Byoffer, I take that as the TC that they will be attending to vote off the first member of the merged tribe.

Let's speculate about alliances. Let's look at all the different allegiences going into this merge:

1. Original Manono - Troyzan, Jonas, Gregzan, Leif, Jay, Michael (Michael low man on the totem pole)
2. Original Salani - Sabrina, Kim, Chelsea, Kat, Alicia, Christina. Christina was on the outs. Alicia on the outs, whether she knows it or not.
3. Misfits: Leif, Gregzan, Jonas, Troyzan, Jay
4. Core original Salani: Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina, Kat, Alicia
5. nuSalani: Sabrina, Kim, Chelsea, Kat, Jay, Troyzan, Michael
6. nuManono: Gregzan, Leif, Jonas, Christina, Alicia
7. NuSalani core: Kim, Jay, Troyzan, Chelsea

Now, just going by the numbers here's how it goes...

Those in 4 different alliances: Troyzan, Jay, Kim, Chelsea

Those in 3 different alliances: Leif, Gregzan, Jonas, Sabrina, Kat, Alicia

Those in 2 different alliances: Michael, Christina

Clearly, Gregzan is becoming the new Phillip Shepard, so he'll be the boot decoy. Will Gregzan make a bold move at TC, we already see him breaking ties with Jonas and Leif. But, my question is, is this a smoke screen? If Gregzan breaks ties with the misfits, then he too is down to 2 allegiances, and clearly, he's on the outs with the old Manono tribe, so. will he be down to one alliance? Or, will he join up with someone else?

So much going on with Tarzan this week...is it all a smoke screen or is it going to lead to his quick demise?

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NedraSue 107 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 05:15 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: CBS E7 Press Release"
This could be such an obvious boot that it must be played as that...if I recall pictures post production, arrival home pics, Chelsea looks like she lost a lot of weight.

I think she steps up her game a little and becomes a contender. Just my opinion.

Thank goodness Colton is gone. I do not like nasty soles. Yuck.

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Arnold_Lorax 112 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 05:17 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: CBS E7 Press Release"
Yes Nedra, Chelsea does step it up and is not in any bad position at all. Alicia was saved by the merge, big time. Both will be around for a long time to come.
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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 06:15 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: CBS E7 Press Release"
taking into consideration the usage of ALL available caps...
Immediately after Jonas and Tarzan's flare-up, Tarzan is seen conferring with Sabrina.

Therefore, I'd like to admit to evidence Article #1 for Tarzan making a move to insure, one alliance is replaced by another.
Whether it works out for him or not, I don't know. But at the moment, he has made himself a target. Most likely against Christina.
Two days ago, that was the deal. (Or at least that's what he told Leif.)
Tarzan, can't adapt to the new merge dynamics and vows to vote for Christina. Building the tension between him and his former alliancemates. I doubt Tarzan would redirect his target on to Jonas or Leif for this episode, but it places him on the opposite side for all the rest of the TCs. (He's just as obnoxious as Colton and Alicia, IMO.)
I certainly find it possible for Christina to be the boot and it seems almost scripted that Tarzan and Christina will be the two-sides of the EP7 TC target.
Although, if we really do have some gamers on the merged tribe, Michael should be the target.

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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 08:21 PM (EST)
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13. "This is odd..."
LAST EDITED ON 03-22-12 AT 08:41 PM (EST)

Look right in between Sabrina and Tarzan....isn't that the Immunity Idol? But, what is strange is now that they are one tribe, shouldn't they have an Immunity necklace?

ETA: Yes, I just thought of this. The II was not returned from the previous IC. It remains at Salani, so this is indeed most likely new footage. Nevermind!

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 08:29 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: This is odd..."
They didn't have an IC, it was in camp when they went to TC. They should turn it over to Jeff sometime, probably at IC.
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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 09:10 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: This is odd..."
excellent catch though, Flo!
I spent time looking for a necklace throughout the pics and totally glided over the tribal idol.
As you've figured out, this is prior to the IC.

But that may help us narrow down the bootee/target too as Tarzan striking up a possible deal with Sabrina happens before they even figure out who wins Immunity.
Tarzan may outplay himself. Nobody wants a Dolly Flipflopper.

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knuckles487 178 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 09:42 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: CBS E7 Press Release"
>
>
>

They certainly could be doing a little plotting during this meeting but it would be better if the conversation was more like this:

S: Oh man, get those nasty things away from me.
T: This isn't poop. It's dirt.
S: I don't care what it is, go wash those things.
T: They have been itching more than normal lately, I suppose I could go stick them in our cooking pot. See you later.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-12, 10:09 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I am not so much in the "beauty" is about Chelsea camp.

I think it is just someone commenting about how his or her position seems better now-- perhaps having more alliance options, perhaps dropping off the boot radar after being high profile target. Possibly having lots of targets and not having to worry about taking out allies when going to TC.

Perhaps not being stuck with certain people you don't want to work with merely because of the paint color in an egg.

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Karchita 4469 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-12, 00:10 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Yes. It sounds to me like a weaker player who was under the gun in their own tribe pre-merge and whose situation has impoved significantly post-merge.

Alicia comes to mind as someone whose situation has improved, but I haven't noticed her saying things as aware as "the beauty of a merge". It just doesn't sound like something she would say.

I think Christina's situation is also improved in that she was very much under the gun pre-merge and at the least shares that position with one or two others post-merge. So her situation is better after the merge.

Somehow this seems to me like something Jonas would say. He wasn't under the gun himself pre-merge, but he was in what seemed to be an uncomfortable position for him, that as a leader or game changer when he was teamed with Christina and Leif to vote out Alicia. Therefore, now that he is out of that position post merge, I could totally see him saying that the beaty of a merge is that it puts the target on people other than UTR, physically weaker players like himself. He seems to have the game awareness necessary to say something like that, too.


Thanks snidget & tribe!

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-12, 00:41 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I agree, it seems like a game comment. For the Manono2, for example, they are now part of a large group, not a dwindling small group, and entering the individual immunity stage the heat is off those players who aren't regarded as challenge threats. Tarzan tries hard at challenges but is clearly in bad shape, Leif gives it everything but may continue to be under-estimated, and Jonas looks soft (intentionally). Alicia, of course, lands back with women and a chance to drag Christina in the mud as a back-stabbing betrayer. Or Kim, who with two alliances going is in the best merge position of anyone in ages.
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03-23-12, 05:38 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-12 AT 05:39 AM (EST)

Excellent breakdown, Karchita and dabo. I can also hear either of the Zans using the phrase, tho not quite sure why Troyzan would.

I wonder though if this merge will be typical. Lookj at how Nicaragua went. Merge boot Alina, nothing to do with her being a challenge threat. He person who makes this assessment could also be wrong and be out the door.

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03-23-12, 06:57 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
The person who makes this assessment could also be wrong and be out the door.

This is what I am thinking as well.

The smartest choice, imo, would indeed be Michael. But, what if he should win immunity? I think nuSalani is tighter than nuManono. They are because they won and worked well together. So, if Michael wins the IC, than the most logical choice and the easy choice would be someone from nuManono. NuManono is very fractured. We see Gregzan breaking away, but he is really no threat whatsoever. We know Christina is split from Alicia and is now with Jonas/Leif. If she is now with them, I think Jonas would persuade Troyzan to keep her. Yet, Alicia would be running back to the girls tout suite. Which will indeed irritate Jonas and Troyzan...Kat raised a red flag regarding Alicia last week with her dream, and another was raised at TC. Troyzan and Jay will not want Alicia back in with their girls.

OFG Theory:


I am beginning to favor Alicia as the boot choice over Christina...fwiw. And, she could indeed utter the title phrase as well.

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03-23-12, 09:27 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
FloPo, that big smile caught my attention too. She is clearly very, very pleased to be merged.

She was the one of the 5 that narrated about their alliance forming, not once, but two weeks in a row. When she got the second confessional about their alliance I thought to myself, she's the one that won't last in it.

Her edit has been so horrible that it really is time for her to go.

I like the idea that she utters the title phase too.

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03-23-12, 11:11 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I'm excited to see Alicia go... she's horrible. But I'm worried that she's really the only drama left on the show... and if she's gone, then what? Listening to Tarzan forget peoples' names?

I'd love for this to turn into an Amazon-style season, where alliances are made/broken/etc.

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03-23-12, 12:30 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I'm also leaning toward Alicia as the boot choice if it's a woman (I have Tarzan and Michael as my male boot choices) - don't forget Sabrina also had a comment where she said she didn't trust Alicia. That's two out of four that Alicia was originally aligned with who has now made what could be interpreted as negative comments against Alicia.

All it would take is for someone like Jonas/Christina to break the news to Kim's alliance about how Alicia acted as KKKolton's lackey and I can easily see Kim/Chelsea/Sabrina saying "okay, let's boot her as it'll reduce the numbers on the other side."

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03-23-12, 03:14 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Although I would love to see Alicia out next, I do not see it. She would make a great goat. Now that they will be voting out jury members it is a good idea to keep someone on your team that can be blamed when you have to vote out someone who thinks you have an alliance with them. I know if I was playing I would target people who I thought would give me their vote. I am not sure other people would think this way but it seems like the best way to win. Especially if you had a goat you could blame. Take troy for example he has good ties with some guys who are not in his new alliance such as Jonas and Leif. If he was thinking jury votes he would find a way of getting them voted off where he could make it look like someone else was to blame. That it why villains some times come in handy. I am so not sure how the alliances are going to play out. It is still a numbers game and the biggest alliance wins. I think Christina, and Micheal would be #1 choices for boot prospects. They would be easy to explain to why we voted you out. Christina (I was going along with what every one wanted.) Micheal (you were too much a challenge threat). Sorry such a long post.
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03-23-12, 03:38 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-12 AT 05:31 PM (EST)

Leroy Jethro Gibbs' Rule #6: Never say "You're Sorry." It's a sign of weakness.

Good point, jury management should become increasingly important from this point. It is a bit early to try to put a certain vote on the jury, but the smart player would want to avoid making the first jurist someone who would be jury poison.

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03-23-12, 04:28 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
"smart" ?

I like your post a lot, Jason, but at merge stage people are mostly conserned with finding a path for their group to the end. While it's nice to have votes on the jury, it's important to have people in the game who want to keep you in the game, and to get rid of those who don't care for you or might betray you.

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29. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Exactly. Logic often doesn't work in Survivor. Alina was booted first after the merge even though there were much bigger fry in terms of immunity threats and the fact that it was actually Na'Onka who stole/hid the food item, Alina's crime simply was that she associated herself by knowing the food item was hidden but didnt report it quickly enough. There were others who should have been more logical boots over Alina.
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50. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Alina wasn't voted out because of the food incident; she was voted out because she was seen as the biggest schemer. Remember, Nay told her about the food because Alina was already being voted out. Nay did it to gain Alina's vote in the end.

The challenge threats, Benry and Fabio, weren't considered dangerous because they weren't smart while Marty was partly in with Sash and Brenda.

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30. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-12 AT 07:09 PM (EST)

Yeah, I know, smart isn't high up the Survivor agenda, substitute:

Let's try not to do something incredibly dumb.

Wait a minute, umm....

Okay, the merge boot has to make some sort of sense on some level. There has to be a reason, either he/she is too dangerous a challenge threat, or have to break up this pair, or life would be so much better without him/her around, something. If Alicia and Kat get back together as Airhead buddies immediately after the merge, they both bump up the target list.

On her own Alicia can be pretty disagreeable, even unpredictable. But unless she is an immediate threat to you personally you don't want that becoming the first member of the jury and probable jury poison.

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31. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-12 AT 06:17 PM (EST)

During the last episode when they seen that Monica had been voted out, the women on Salani expressed concern that the women were all being eliminated and the men would have a big advantage later in the game. If they continue to be concerned about it and haven't blown it off from just 3 days before, I can see the women joining back together and trying to vote out one of the men. Possibly Tarzan because of his leg or for boiling his nasty underwear in their cooking pot, or else someone they view as a stronger threat. They must realize they can get numbers on their side and then get rid of cancers like Alicia a little later.

And as for the CBS press release saying "Allegiances are thrown into question when one tribe member makes a bold move at tribal council", I would think that had to happen during the merge TC from last week. If they meant TC from this week there wouldn't be enough time left to see anything "thrown into question". Plus with Tarzan being upset and going off by himself now, it would seem that it WAS something last week that maybe we weren't shown. Since we are seeing the turmoil with alliances in these previews it just makes sense to me. (even though I have never been close to right about anything and wouldn't notice "sense" if it hopped on my lap)


edited to fix typos.

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28. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I could certainly see the reasons for Christina and Michael to be booted ahead of Alicia, but I just have this feeling about Alicia as we were shown Kat's and Sabrina's comments for a reason, and she went against both Monica and Christina over booting a guy, so in the eyes of Kim, can she completely trust Alicia to stay with their original alliance? Several have commented they wouldn't mind changing some of their alliances back in Episode 2 TC - could this be a clue they would be amenable to letting someone like Alicia go?
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32. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I also have to wonder what the girls thought about Alicia being "the one" to announce that Colton kept the idol? She put herself into the position of not being trustworthy since no one seemed to really believe it from the Salani tribe.
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33. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Reasons to keep Alicia- The girls need her with Monica gone and Christina on the outs. Jay and Troy will be played for now. The merge helped Alicia and she will be back with her girls.

Tarzan is boot decoy.

Christina is a threat because her back is against the wall. She with Leaf and Jonas don't make a majority now that Tarzan is gone from them. Christina is a threat to everyone because she isn't part of any one group which means they can't predict who she will vote for and nobody wants to risk a free agent vote hanging around.

After they get rid of Christina then they can attack the biggest non-alliance physical threat.

Get used to Tarzan, he will be around a while he is setting himself up in the Phillip role. And he is not a physical threat.

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34. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Get used to Tarzan, he will be around a while he is setting himself up in the Phillip role.

Dirty underwear and all.

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35. "Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor"
The Etch-a-Sketch factor...the paraphrasing of a current political idiom into a useful Survivor analysis tool.
<shake shake shake, shake your booty....>

'The Beauty in a Merge'....is that it allows a resetting of the alliances(or in this teaser-text case, 'allegiances'....a peculiarly more formal terminology that might ID the speaker).

So if a Merge allows the possibility of a reset of the alliances....does it happen in E7? And if so who might shift? Ignoring the Immunity factor for a moment, how would that affect the boot selection?

As laid out by others above...we have multiple overlapping alliances with so many cast fingers in multiple pots that I feel a strange need for a Venn Diagram to adequately chart the full layout...lol.

Recapping for ref via FloPo's prior breakdown(ty FloPo)....
--------------------
1. Original Manono - Troyzan, Jonas, Gregzan, Leif, Jay, Michael (Michael low man on the totem pole)
2. Original Salani - Sabrina, Kim, Chelsea, Kat, Alicia, Christina. Christina was on the outs. Alicia on the outs, whether she knows it or not.
3. Misfits: Leif, Gregzan, Jonas, Troyzan, Jay
4. Core original Salani: Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina, Kat, Alicia
5. nuSalani: Sabrina, Kim, Chelsea, Kat, Jay, Troyzan, Michael
6. nuManono: Gregzan, Leif, Jonas, Christina, Alicia
7. NuSalani core: Kim, Jay, Troyzan, Chelsea

Now, just going by the numbers here's how it goes...

Those in 4 different alliances: Troyzan, Jay, Kim, Chelsea

Those in 3 different alliances: Leif, Gregzan, Jonas, Sabrina, Kat, Alicia

Those in 2 different alliances: Michael, Christina
-------------------------------

My thoughts...
While a complete resetting of alliances seems unlikely, a certain amount of scrambling is to be expected. And in fact Kim/Chelsea/Troy/Jay pretty much did a preemptive etch-a-sketch re-shake with the Merge very much in mind.

The big question is if a player, particularly a controlling player like Kim has multiple alliances in motion, which one do they go with as their boot instrument of choice. Do they hold their primary alliance in reserve to keep it stealth until absolutely necessary? Or do they put the hammer down now and try to distance themselves(and their alliance) from the crowd when everyone is scrambling trying to figure things out?

Or do they play the self indulgent Colton game of maniulating players just for the sake of it b/c it's more fun? That of course puts at risk the ultimate goal of winning, to which eventually Colton would have likely fallen short.

I'm thinking that as seemingly game-smart as Kim(and Chelsea) appear to be, they might use the Female alliance as their booting tool to serve their NuSalani Core4 alliance(Kim/Chelsea/Troy/Jay). The reason I think that alliance will prevail is b/c it advantages each of those members equally. Each thinks they will have a better shot at the endgame with strong members to succeed individually in chals and thus better control the boot. While the IN only protects one member it can be 'gifted' at a last minute TC scramble to confuse/disrupt a coup d'etat....thus there is some element of umbrella protection there.

But ultimately it is in the NuSalani Core4's best interest to keep their appearance stealth as long as possible. It appears though that Alicia at the least is aware of the potential via a Kim/Chelsea hookup(as per Colton interview). So their cover may soon be blown. But one episode at a time.

The real victim in all this will be Sabrina who loses out bigtime on her endgame through no fault of her own. And while Michael is as equally dangerous, his alliance choices have been limited since before the Merge. The wildcard that I see is Jonas. He has not been a threat...barely in one alliance after another. His 'allegiances' have been tepid at best. Does he get 'used' by one of the power alliances surely to emerge? And if so can he use his 'malleability' to 'use' them right back for longevity?

Lastly we have the 'goat factor'. Who's this season's goat? While Greg is the obvious choice...seemingly placing himself purposefully in position for that very role, we also have Kat, Leif and Alicia as possibles. Kat as the ingenue, Leif as the misfit and Alicia as the villain....and including in this analysis..Greg as the grumpy Uncle who should be in the basement. Which one do you chose?...lol.

So thereyago...some thoughts to ponder as we attempt to figure out which alliance will control the boot and why.

Your thoughts?

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36. "RE: Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor"
Terrific analysis. I'm not sure, though, if I see Leif as a potential goat - he's pretty likeable as a guy and he might steal some votes if some jurors have a vendetta of some sort against the leading candidates. I agree with Kat as the clueless ditz, Alicia as the unlikeable hag and Tarzan as the bridge-burning basement gnome as ideal goats to take along. Based on early vidcaps, I've had Kat as the goat to go with Kim and whoever else she takes to the end since the beginning of the season.
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03-25-12, 01:16 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor"
"unlikeable hag"

That's putting it mildly.


Thanks snidget & tribe!

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37. "RE: Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor"
You can't begin to know how many years I've been your fan and enjoyed reading your spec Blind Freddy, genius stuff.

You have outlined exactly why I think that Christina is most in trouble and why Alicia is now safe for a while. Alicia can fit that goat role very well but Christina has never been excepted by the girls and never been excepted by her new tribe and will still be in scramble mode. Anybody that is in scramble mode will sell their vote to the highest bidder with no loyalty involved. She will be gone first so it looks to Jay and Troy that Kim and Chelsea really do wanna stick with them but this is all show to get a leg up and get rid of a sliding variable.

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40. "RE: Etch-a-Sketch re-set factor"
Years huh....well you'll never see those again...lol....(j/k)
Thanks for the kind words, you're more generous than need be tho.
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38. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
The more I think about it. The more I think "The beauty in a merge" is something Jonas says. I think the merge will open up more alliance possibilities. I do not think he is too crazy about his alliance and it is obviously a weaker alliance so I would expect him to look for other options. The fact he was buddies with Troy would possibly open the door for him to join Troys new alliance. That would be a strong alliance especially if they can keep it secret. If they can not keep it secret all hell will break loose. This is something that I have speculated may happen based on something in the video clips we have. I hope not as I would like to see Chelsea, Kim, Jay, troy and Jonas dominate this game to the end.
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03-24-12, 05:39 PM (EST)
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39. "Interesting...."
LAST EDITED ON 03-24-12 AT 05:40 PM (EST)

This is really interesting.....look who is front and center on the website this week...

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/

Not long for the tribe/show perhaps?

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41. "RE: Interesting...."
Or should we say not long for this (one) world?


Thanks snidget & tribe!

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43. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
TxScubadiver made a beautiful analysis at Sucks (Spoilers forum) that I want to share over here. (This is the link where I quoted the post and includes my thoughts on the post).

http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/sreply/8212925/S24-E7-Title-The-Beauty-in-a-Merge-

The essence of his idea of how the vote will go is:

NuSalani believes Alicia may well have the idol.
NuSalani's best move is to stick together at the moment, while nuManono is a fractured tribe (2-2-1, Leif's indecisiveness creates a swing dynamic).

Greg and Alicia vote Christina.
Jonas, Leif, and Christina vote Alicia.
(I would say, Leif votes whatever he decides but can't be counted on.)

nuSalani splits its six votes and puts 3 each on Greg and Alicia.
If Alicia plays the idol (they think she has), Greg goes.
If not, Alicia goes.
Win-win.
Alicia has no idol, so she goes.

I like it, although if there is a second idol and it is found, then someone may be in a position to know that Alicia doesn't have one. See, I don't think Jeff is going to tell them for sure if it's hidden or not, because he tried to stir up the suspicion at TC.

Only Kim and Chelsea know of Kim's idol, so if Chelsea is part of finding a replacement idol, Chelsea will know Alicia doesn't have it. However, if anyone but Chelsea and Kim finds it, they aren't going to be entirely sure which idol it is.

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03-25-12, 11:02 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
LAST EDITED ON 03-25-12 AT 11:16 AM (EST)

Thanks OFG for bringing that over for discussion.

So it seems that any boot scenerio this week must deal directly with the issue I mentioned at the thread bump of how the alliance 'layers' will interact in resolving to a boot.

In the TxScuba scenerio the players are speced to move right past the whole Male/Female 'allegiances' and powerplay from a NuTribe point of view. But the NuSalani powers(Females in majority w/Kim/Chelsea at head) have to feel comfortable in their minds in order for them to ditch a Female vote(Christina/Alicia) and not be then backstabbed by the Men. AND Kim/Chelsea have to convince the other NuSalani females to ditch a Female vote(Christina/Alicia) w/o revealing their own secret eventual betrayal of the Female tribe. A delicate balance to say the least.

This is Survivor highlighting the art of finesse at its finest and could certainly qualify as a Final TC talking point.

The parallax view has the Men wondering the same thing but without the leap of faith. The NuManono Men get a Female boot supporting the false sense of security in a now dissipated Male tribal alliance. And for the NuSalaniCore4 Males, they have no risk at all in their double alliance playbook. Sooooo....

Who's zoomin' who?

So my rhetorical question is why would the Females(as a whole or as part of the NuSalaniCore4) make that leap of faith to boot a Female rather than try to finesse a Male boot(Michael) first?

The traditional Survivor strategic concern at the Merge *is* numbers. Going in, they are equal(in terms of Male/Female) but varied when looking at the layered alliances present. While Kim/Chelsea know that their backs are covered by either the HII or the NuSalaniCore4, the other Females have no such assurance. Why would they make a leap of faith and boot one of their own over a clear and present danger embodied by Michael and an unknown Male alliance?

Both the Males and the Females will be walking a finesse tightrope at Tribal Council w/o a net while the NuSalaniCore4 have an invisible safety line attached to them. What are the side deals that we aren't being shown that support such a leap of faith? Paraphrasing a previous Presidential incumbant mantra...'it's the numbers, stupid'.

How does such a leap of faith happen...and why does Sabrina, of all people, make that leap(if it happens)?

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03-25-12, 11:58 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
Your logic makes alot of sense. It strikes me from episode 1 where Kim had her confessional about the men and the way they acted stealing their stuff during the first few minutes of the game. Kim realized that the gloves were off and these guys weren't going to play fair. With that in mind it makes 100% sense that Michael will be Kim's target. She can finesse it with Jay and Troy by saying they need to get rid of a immunity threat down the road and since he isn't part of their core alliance what good does he do them?

The only real male boot that makes any sense is Michael but if its a girl vote then I still say Christina.

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03-25-12, 12:32 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
The fact Nusalani think Alicia has the Idol makes her a target. I do not think the girls look at the guys as one tribe. They are obviously fractured. I think the guys vs girls is out the door. Although, I could see a few of the girls like Sabrina or Kat still thinking in terms of guys vs girls. I do not think it would be hard to get the Nusalani girls to vote for either Alicia or Christina. I like Txscubadiver's spec. It is a real possibility. I would also think the Nusalani could split their vote between Alicia and Christina.
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03-25-12, 03:07 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I definitely see Alicia as a contender for the boot this week. However, I don't buy that nuSalani will not know about Alicia's not having an idol. There are 5 people currently playing that will tell them just where Colton's idol is. Nevertheless, Alicia remains a strong contender for boot.

But, I just want to throw more spec out here that supports a Michael boot. As we all know, it is 6 vs. 6. I would think that the girls, especially Sabrina, who for all intents and purposes was the elected leader of Salani, would want Alicia back in the fold. So, Alicia really has at least a few friends out there. But, MIchael has no friends on old Manono, and he really doesn't on nuSalani. If he doesn't win immunity, I say he's toast. Girls are happy, boys are happy. It would be a golden opportunity.

I see the guys are far more fractured than the girls. Christina is the only one I don't think will vote with the girls. I don't think Michael will go along with the majority of guys and their vote choice, and Tarzan may not. Jonas + Leif will most likely go along with Troyzan. Regardless, if the guys vote is torn between Christina and Alicia, it would be easy for the girls + Troy/Jay to take out Michael....if he doesn't have immunity.

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03-25-12, 05:35 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I don't buy that nuSalani will not know about Alicia's not having an idol. There are 5 people currently playing that will tell them just where Colton's idol is.

It would be an unusual move for production to put a second HII back into play post-merge. Who besides Chelsea knows that Kim has the HII? If a second HII is found and that information reaches Kim, Chelsea, someone else knowing of Kim's HII, they essentially know at that point that they were told the truth, Colton kept his HII as a souvenir.

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03-25-12, 06:12 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
I agree that it is possible that they figure out that Colton took the Idol with him. I find it interesting that if or when someone finds the second idol they may or may not think it is the only idol or that there is still one to find. It is entirely possible that Kim and Chelsea could end up with the second idol giving them even more power than they already have.
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03-26-12, 06:46 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: S24 E7 Title - 'The Beauty in a Merge'"
It would be an unusual move for production to put a second HII back into play post-merge.

Hate to spoil it for ya' but...


VO: And one more chance at hidden Immunity.
Troyzan: (confessional) "I've got to find that Immunity Idol. I've got to find it now."

There IS a post-merge HI for the findin'.
We've been speculating that Chelsea or Jay may find it due to the caps of them...
adding more power to the Kim/Chelsea/Jay/Troyzan and it's immediate offshoots.
It is still possible that Michael could find it. Saving himself, but he's more likely to win Individual Immunity. (And then when he doesn't...buh-bye.)

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03-26-12, 07:37 AM (EST)
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52. "HII"
Yes, I echo Tribe's observations. Clearly, they will all know that another HII is back into play, I wouldn't even be surprised if production sends them treemail announcing it...And, I would say that if anyone has a chance to find it, seeing Jay and Chelsea off to hunt for it is a pretty good sign for them, fwiw.
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