Now that the premier episode is a part of the past, and we know that there will most likely be two more episodes before the tribal shuffle, I thought I would open a new thread available to speculate on the make-up of the tribes, and perhaps how they are formed.
First of all, before we start, I think that the shuffle will take place in episode 4, when 3 people have left the game. I predict, thanks to the belted challenge where the girls win, that 2 girls will be removed from the game. I predict that 1 male will be removed from the game. As time goes by, and we get more episode vidcaps, we may validate or refute this speculation. As there is a real possibility that the shuffle could take place post episode 4...
Here is what we KNOW definitively, by vidcaps of them in the 3 challenges that are post shuffle:
New Manono (Orange tribe, formerly the men's tribe): Leif, Colton, Jonas, Greg, Christina, Alicia, Mystery Woman?Chelsea, ???
New Salani, (Blue tribe, formerly the girls tribe): Jay, Michael, ???, ???, Kim, Sabrina, Kat
Seen, but we don't know which tribe: Bill
Not seen at all: Nina, Monica, Matt, Troy
Assuming that the shuffle takes place in episode 4, there will be 3 people gone. I predict 2 girls and 1 guy. But now, with no evidence of Monica in the post shuffle challenges, it could be in episode 5, when 4 people are gone. We will make best spec for both.
Shuffle in episode 4:
IF, shuffle occurs in ep 4, 15 people left in game, most likely down 2 girls and 1 guy, so the post shuffle tribal numbers would be Salani: 7 members, and Manono: 8 members. With 8 guys, I speculate that the guys will be split 4/4, and girls 3/4, with 3 girls going to Salani and 4 girls going to Manono...if this is the case then Bill would be on the blue Salani tribe because we have evidence of 4 guys already on the Manono Tribe.
Girls not seen: Nina and Monica. I have heavily favored Chelsea as being seen in the orange buff with Sabrina.
MY SPEC: New Salani: Jay, Michael, Bill, ?Troy/Matt?, Kim, Kat, Sabrina
New Manono: Leif, Colton, Jonas, Greg, Christina, Alicia, Chelsea, ?Monica
Shuffle in episode 5
If the shuffle occurs in ep 5, 14 people left in the game, most likely down 2-3 girls, or 1-2 men. Harder to put them into groups....but, I would predict that the tribes would be split evenly? There is room for argument here.
Spec: New Salani: Jay, Michael, Bill, Kim, Kat, Sabrina, 1 of Monica/Matt/Troy
New Manono: Colton, Leif, Jonas, Greg, Christina, Alicia, Chelsea