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"Episode 1 Boot prospects"
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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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02-02-12, 11:00 AM (EST)
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"Episode 1 Boot prospects"
LAST EDITED ON 02-02-12 AT 01:21 PM (EST)

In the vidcap thread I have narrowed down the possible first boot candidates to include: Kourtney, Nina, Christina, and Chelsea

There is vidcap evidence of the every player not listed above in challenges that most likely appear in episodes post ep 1. ...

Timeline: Survivor arrive by truck with their supplies and are divided into tribes, females on Salani, blue, and men on Manono, orange. They will live at the same beach/camp.

There will most likely be one challenge in the first episode, and it's the long tribal challenge that involves jumping into nets, and balance beams. I suspect that the Manono, Orange, Men's tribe will win, because there is evidence of all men post ep 1.

I will document each player post episode one:
1. Greg:



Note Greg's beard growth in the water shot compared to this...

Greg will be on the Orange Manono after the tribal shuffle.

2. Colton

Seen in the water challenge opposite Matt (Note the dark orange shorts with dark flowers) Colton will most likely be on the orange, Manono tribe post tribal shuffle.

3. Troyzan

Arriving, note beard:

In the sling shot challenge...which could be most likely in ep 2, note he is still wearing the orange, Manono buff...this is pre-tribal shuffle...


Note Troyzan jumping on Jonas here, now wearing the blue, Salani buff, this is post tribal shuffle...

Troyzan will be on the blue, Salani tribe post tribal shuffle.

4. Jonas

Seen wearing the orange, Manono buff in the water challenge being jumped on by Troyzan, who is now on the blue, Salani tribe...

Jonas swimming with orange buff on wrist...

Jonas will be on the Orange, Manono Tribe post tribal shuffle.

5. Leif

Leif is seen in the water challenge with someone grabbing him, note his orange buff around his neck. This is the same challenge where Troyzan (blue) is jumping on Jonas (orange). This is post tribal shuffle...

Leif is on the Orange, Manono Tribe post tribal shuffle.

6. Jay

Jay seen in the water challenge, not beard growth and color of his buff is blue, this is post tribal shuffle....

Jay will be on the Blue, Salani Tribe post tribal shuffle.

7. Bill

Bill is seen in the water challenge which has been identified as post tribal shuffle...

Bill, by process of elimination, will most likely be on the Orange, Manono Tribe post tribal shuffle.

8. Matt

By examining the following vidcaps, it appears that Matt is the player on the left hand side, with the orange shorts with dark flowers. He has also been identified and labeled as Matt by someone at Sucks, Castaway208, I think. Regardless, if these are actual survivors and not dreamteamers, Matt is on the left hand side of the frame...(also those shorts are going against Colton in his water challenge shots, so Matt and Colton are on opposite tribes after the tribal shuffle...



Matt is seen carrying the blue barrel, so he will be on the Blue, Salani Tribe post tribal shuffle...

9. Michael

Michael is the one in the same above shots with the black or navy trunks with the white hibiscus flowers, note his shoes...

And compare to this shot...

Troyzan's shoes are seen here...

By process of elimination, the navy trunk guy with the white trim seen with Matt in the leaky water barrel challenge is indeed Michael. Michael will be on the Blue, Salani Tribe post tribal shuffle.

ETA: New shots of Michael in the water challenge post tribal shuffle, with a blue buff, and wearing the navy trunks with white hibiscus, as speculated...

Also note Leif in the orange buff.

So, in conclusion, all of the men are accounted for post episode one. So, the Salani tribe must lose the first episode IC...

Now, let's try and narrow down the women...

1. Monica

Seen in the water challenge...


Could be the same challenge as this....

If it is, then Monica survives post shuffle and she will most likely be on the Blue, Salani Tribe post shuffle.

2. Alicia

ETA: Seen here in the sling shot challenge, which is PRE tribal shuffle, most likely in ep 2...

Then, she is seen in water challenge post shuffle...

Alicia will be on the Orange, Manono Tribe post shuffle.

3. Sabrina

Seen in the water challenge behind, note her blue wrist buff...

Sabrina will be on the Blue, Salani Tribe post shuffle.

4. Kat

Kat seen in the water challenge...



Kat is seen in the water challenge wearing the blue buff, she will be on the Blue, Salani Tribe post tribal shuffle.

5. Kimberly
Kimberly is identified as being in the leaky water barrel challenge carrying the barrel with Matt and Michael, who are both on the blue tribe post shuffle...

Kimberly and Nina had black slacks on their arrival, but clearly, this girl is tall, and she's cut the slacks to shorts, and she's built like Kimberly, not Nina...



Kimberly will most likely be on the Blue, Salani Tribe post tribal shuffle.

ETA: Proof of Kimberly in blue bathing suit...

6. Christina
Here is a vidcap for comparison of Greg on day one or two...

Now, here is a shot from the recent promo with Troyzan vs. Tarzan and note Christina is seen in the foreground. Again, please note Tarzan's beard, and the one I posted from day one...


I think this shot is from the water challenge, at the start, note that Greg is not wearing a shirt, which also makes it POST tribal swap. I speculate that Greg and Christina are both now on the orange, Manono tribe...

I think it could be from the same challenge as these...




If my speculation is correct, then Christina is on the Orange, Manono Tribe post tribal swap.

ETA: New proof of Christina seen in water challenge in the new promo of Leif, seen wearing the orange buff....she IS on Manono, orange tribe post shuffle!


My spec is that the only women not seen post episode one include: Kourtney, Chelsea, or Nina. One of them is our first boot, and I would bet that another of them is our second boot...the other remaining one will be placed on the Orange, Manono Tribe

I speculate that the tribes will be shuffled after the first 2 boots, when there are 16 Survivors left in the game. It's spec, I could be wrong...?

If they shuffle at 16, the new tribes will be:

New Manono Tribe: Greg, Colton, Jonas, Leif, Bill, Alicia, Christina, (One of Kourtney, Nina, or Chelsea).

New Salani Tribe: Troyzan, Jay, Matt, Michael, Monica, Sabrina, Katt, Kimberly.

I think I can speculate that the ep 1 challenge with nets is the only challenge in ep 1. The sling shot with coconuts is a challenge in episode 2, pre-tribal swap.
The water challenge with balls and dunking each other, the water basketball challenge, is post tribal swap.
The Leaky water barrel challenge is different than the basketball water challenge and is also post tribal shuffle.
Most of the men this season have very heavy beards...



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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Corvis 02-02-12 1
   RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Flowerpower 02-02-12 2
 RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-06-12 3
   RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects baddove 02-06-12 4
       RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-06-12 5
           RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Flowerpower 02-07-12 6
               RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-07-12 7
                   RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Flowerpower 02-07-12 8
                       RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-07-12 9
                       RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-08-12 12
               RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects PepeLePew13 02-07-12 10
                   RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-08-12 11
                   RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-08-12 13
                       RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects PepeLePew13 02-08-12 14
                           RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-08-12 15
                               RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects PepeLePew13 02-08-12 16
                                   RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects Outfrontgirl 02-08-12 17

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Corvis 3116 desperate attention whore postings
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02-02-12, 06:30 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
Awesome work, Flowerpower!

Of those three, two stand out as people who might not get along well with the tribe: Nina and Kourtney.

Nina has the older woman thing going against her (unfair as that is) and she also strikes me as a woman who won't mesh well on a tribe of women. She's a retired cop and doesn't like being called a "girl". She's "tenacious, competitive and confident" - three traits that if they come out too soon can end a Survivor's stay quickly.

Just reading her bio, Kourtney strikes me as someone who will say what she thinks and rub people the wrong way.

If I had to pick two of the three to get the boot, it'd be those two.

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02-02-12, 07:09 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
Hiya Corvis! So nice to see you! I am in agreement with your thoughts...Nina and Kourtney definitely stick out, and as you note, unfair as that may be. With the vidcap evidence of EVERYONE but these three, clearly, 2 out of these three are our first two boots. I would bet on Kourtney and Nina. Now, to figure out the order...


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02-06-12, 07:00 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
Absolutely fantastic and perfectly organized to make your case, FloPo.
I am totally in awe of how you sorted through this overwhelming number of caps from the recent promos, finding feet, ears, rings, the tiniest of details.

I agree that these two women have the personality qualities to possibly get themselves on outs.

My thoughts, including Jeff's usual cast assessments made between start of game and first TC (I would guess he does it post-challenge, so that he has seen them in action).

NINA --
Jeff says:
"Nina is a former cop who is a little rough around the edges, given how slick the rest of this group is. If they just give her a day or two to see what she can bring to the party, she brings a lot of wisdom and patience."
age difference, possibly bossy cop factor.

KOURTNEY --

Jeff says:
"Kourtney is the most unique of the women on her tribe. She's sort of an artist and likable. I don't think she could win the game. She doesn't have a strong enough personality."

in some intro interview I recall she remarks that she is not that athletic compared to the others. It was noted earlier that she doesn't immediately assimilate by adding her buff to costume. She is seen walking with Monica in camp post-challenge while the other seven have a discussion.

My issue with Kourtney is that she did tweet that she recently broke her arm and already had it reset once, that it did not heal well. So if she is fine after the challenge, she didn't break it on the nets. We know there is a med-evac, and there is no sign of that touted for Ep 1. So I think the outside evidence points to her being more likely the second bootee.

While Kourtney could have broken her arm at Ponderosa, they don't usually do such strenuous things. FloPo, is there anything about the slingshot challenge that could go awry and cause a broken arm? Alternate theory: she could fall out of a tree or something in camp ... but she looks fine walking with Monica.

CHELSEA --

Jeff says:
Jeff says: "Chelsea was born to play 'Survivor.' Everything we look for in a female contestant -- smart, attractive, physically fit, comfortable hunting and fishing. And I think she could dominate this game and run that women's camp, and help build shelter and catch fish and find chickens and be a real threat. I hope she lasts a long time."

Chelsea's weight loss evidence: (weight loss is not definitive, people do get stomach parasites and so forth, but something to consider).

Her Facebook photos of herself pre-game posted July 11th of this year. Note the bulk of her biceps, and compare her arms after she returned.

Her beginning game shot from TV Guide preview shows a fair amount of weight on her face.

here we see her in mid-July, just before departing for Samoa:

Compare her bulky arms and face to these Facebook photos posted privately then taken down meeting parents at airport and on Sept 26th.

(photos posted by someone who knew her (at school I think) and was her FB friend).

Chelsea was cast by Jaime Huffman of Survivor China. She is from SC as well and is friends with Jaime.

I doubt very much that Chelsea is the first boot. Jeff has veered away from outright revealing the first boot in his assessments, but those are made after the game has started (probably post challenge after he has interacted with them in the game), and Jeff does not like to be THAT wrong stating that someone is his favorite female cast member when there is a shot she would be first to go.

He has been wrong about first boot likelihood in the past as in saying that Carolina would be hard to vote off, but that's the exception, and I think he was boob-blinded and didn't take into account how assertive she was.

Chelsea is a sales rep for a medical group, and in the past this profession has done very well -- Stephanie, Natalie White.

I think that Chelsea may have deliberately gained weight before the show, which most young women don't like to do as they want to look great, but Chelsea has the benefit of advice from Jaime. She is heavier at the beginning of the show than in some earlier shots of her that were found on the net.

See the difference between her pre-filming shots and the July shot at the time she was getting ready to leave + first ep shot? Face and arms heavier ...
Point being, she really was willing to prepare to be in for the long haul, and she lost a significant amount of weight before she returned. Her arms look unhealthy thin when she comes back (there are more photos of her return in the cast topic I did).

PICK: NINA

Jeff says they need to give her a day or two and see what she has to offer, but as we all know that doesn't tend to happen when your tribe goes to TC first. It is all about picking someone other than yourself that you can sell to the group. Nina is probably an easier sell. Jeff says Kourtney doesn't have a strong personality. She hasn't bonded, but there is nothing to show that she has offended either. She may not speak up for herself if she is picked as the sacrifice, but Nina is more likely to annoy the group.

The group shot may be classic misdirection where the alt boot (Kourtney) is being discussed, but in the end the vote goes against Nina, who plays too hard too soon.

Which of the two has been featured more in promos?

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02-06-12, 07:15 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
The pic of Kourtney and Monica has been time stamped as day 1, pre-challenge, not post-challenge.
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02-06-12, 11:59 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
Thank you, baddove. I had not checked MESS and your post sent me over there. So the Courtney/Monica pic is Day one (he thinks), but Kourtney and Monica are certainly not in the post-challenge Day 3 shot.

Spec:
So maybe the post-challenge shot is the group looking at something going on, perhaps medical is treating Kourtney, and maybe Monica is with her as we have seen her in at least two caps with Kourtney (one cap, one press photo).

As was mentioned at MESS, other press photos of the ladies' camp post challenge shows a less than dejected group. I will post those shots.

What if, the men actually did lose the challenge, but Kourtney got herself injured and was declared out of the game, and Jeff decided that there would be no TC for the men, because one person out in the first ep is enough?

Just a thought.

Photos:
Something going down out of frame?

Day One, Monica and Kourtney:

Post challenge shots of women having a good time:

Men looking unhappy and spent after challenge:

Kourtney seems to be off to a bad start in any case. Note how in the press photos, she is trailing the group as they walk from truck to camp:

Interesting that the last three to the flag are Kourtney, Nina, and Chelsea.

In this group shot, Kourtney and Nina are the least tight as far as drawing together, and Chelsea also is on the edge but not separated:

This photo must be right after, as they pledge tribe solidarity:

Kourtney is standing the farthest out and extending her arm far to meet the others, and Nina's body language is stiff. Chelsea is OK. Alicia and Monica have very welcoming body language.

After going over the press photos, I feel that Kourtney is first boot material right out of the box, unless someone else really steps in it. But, she may just go out before they get a chance to vote her out. That group pic seems to show something they are looking at.

At first I thought, oh, they are looking out in case the person walks in whom they are discussing, but I don't think so. Most of them look perturbed, and Sabrina has a look like, "ow, that looks painful" while the gamers may be considering that they are down one. As in, if they won the challenge, they were feeling really good, but suddenly it's all upside down.

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02-07-12, 09:38 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
Great thoughts, OFG! I am in agreement. I would love to know what is getting their attention here...

I do think that they have the look of empathy, concern, worry...fwiw. And, this is at camp. We just don't know. Kourtney could break her arm just tripping over something...it doesn't have to be while competing in a challenge...

I agree, I can't really see them getting rid of a great asset as Chelsea seems to be. But, we have to look at the fringe of the tribe, the ones that are not in the "in group", re. Nina. If Nina is really smart, she could sway the other not so popular girls into a let's take control right here, as the Vanuatu Fat Five did. I agree though, Chelsea looks as though she trained and gained for this season. She definitely looks thinner, but with the thin, trim girls, weight loss is definitely harder to note.

I am inclined to agree with you though, for me, I am leaning Nina then Kourtney. Hoping for a few more promos...I have to say, I don't think any of the three are getting much pre-show hype. Kim, Alicia, Sabrina have gotten some.

Regarding this photo...

Definitely, the men look downtrodden here. And, Jay looks spent. I am speculating that this is after the ep 2 loss, when the girls are seen cheering and celebrating after the challenge win that they have, when they are seen all wearing belts of some kind that hook to a tether. That is clearly a pre-tribal shuffle challenge, and I suspect it's the RC. But, it could possibly be the IC, but I don't think so. Regardless, it looks as if the guys have lost one here. I do NOT think this is an episode one vidcap.



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02-07-12, 07:54 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-12 AT 07:59 PM (EST)

FloPo, thanks for challenging my too easy assumption! You made me go look much harder. I didn't find any proof for my theory, but, with the help of Polonium and Kona's pointing to other images and a little looking, I think I can prove the men's cap is not from a future challenge.

First, we see the men in the women celebrate (with belt) challenge, and Michael doesn't have his buff on head.

He's wearing his buff as headgear in the "dejected men" cap, so I don't think it the dejected shot could be right after that challenge. But there is more.

For Ep 1, we have the tribal line-up shots as press images, time-stamped Day 3.

Men:

Women:

We also know it is the line-up shot because they are on the mat and in front of the flag with bags on shoulder. Note they are close to that rock wall.

We also have a pair of Ep 1 promo images labeled Women and Men. I think the two images are most likely footage from the same episode, because whoever was doing the promo would find it easier to work from the same time frame footage than to use Ep 1 for the Women and get into some future episode for the Men. (and that can be proved, see below)

Women: still on the mat position, in front of the flag, this is a challenge line-up shot from Ep 1:

Men: NOT standing in the same order as they did for the challenge line-up, not in front of the flag, rock wall is in background but much farther back.

Now we can see that is the same time frame and place as the "dejected men" shot. They are in the same line-up formation, all the clothes and buffs line up, and the background is the same. The background looks different, because the rock wall is blurred out in this cap, and the MEN shot is shot looking up at them (so the trees come in), whereas the "dejected" shot is angled down so that the lower grasses/shrubs predominate.

Now this is the image Polonium showed me that I had not seen before, a combined tribe photo op moment that is definitively Ep 1.

The background is the same as that of the two Manono tribe shots above, and the men are in the exact same positions as in those two shots. So the "dejected" men are shot shortly before or after this combined shot.

Question is, would this be pre or post challenge? I think it is post-challenge. If you look at the men on the mat, they are all projecting energy and readiness for the fray. In the other two pics, on the dirt, they look bummed out and don't have the same presentation at all.

My guess would be that the post-challenge goes something like this:

Men are grouped loosely (Jay bending over), in the area they end up after the challenge, and they are grouped because they've been told they are doing some PR shots before they go back to camp. Jay is bending over and Tarzan is looking in his direction (grumpy looking), so maybe they are waiting for Jay.

Men are now in photo op shot mode.

Women are told to come over and do a group shot.

The men haven't moved, only the front row has dropped down.

The women all look happy and perky (except Kourtney, but she doesn't look injured or in pain). The men are smiling now, sort of, but obviously they are supposed to smile as this a a clear PR photo. The women would smile in any case, but their body language is still energetic as it would be if they are pumped up.

Thoughts?

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02-07-12, 09:10 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"

Great job, OFG. I am on board. Clearly, the shots of the men are indeed from episode one. I don't know whether or not they were taken before or after the challenge though, since I would think that the girls would be more down trodden as they lose the first challenge. But, nevertheless, it's agreed, those pics are from ep 1!


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9. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-12 AT 11:59 PM (EST)

Thanks!

Do we have any evidence that the women lose the challenge other than we know that they are two women down in Ep 3 whereas all the men are still in it? I know that invites a DUH OFG, what more do you need answer, but I am still toying with the idea that a post-challenge Kourtney med-evac COULD lead to TC being canceled that night, no matter who won the challenge.

I realize that they have 18 players and that is in part to give them some buffer for a med-evac, but they may have things laid out in advance such that they don't want to throw the numbers off so early.

The press pics do only show women, but that doesn't mean that there weren't pics shot of the men, as not all pics shot are releases as press photos. Pro photographers using digital cameras are going to snap a lot of photos they don't use.

The scene with the women looking perturbed is 2 1/2 hours after the last challenge press photo time stamp, according to Kona at MESS. It interests me that they have not changed their clothes at all, considering it must be getting on in the day and there are other press photos that do not have time stamps but seem to be post-challenge according to the image number sequence, in which the girls are happily bathing in the water.

It just makes me wonder if something came up with Kourtney that put relaxation on hold and when it was over they got in the water.

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02-08-12, 00:24 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
Well, Kona at MESS (people thread) has pointed out that Bill took off his vest for the challenge but has it on in all these group shots, and Colton moves his buff up to his head for the challenge (but that I think is quickly repositioned).

He also says the transport time in S23 was as much as 90 minutes, so that is likely a big part of why they are still looking fresh from challenge in the women's group shot at camp.

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02-07-12, 11:51 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-12 AT 11:52 PM (EST)

Just a little side note that might be worth keeping on the back burner as episodes unfold... in these two pics, the same three people are closer to the middle than the rest of the women - Kim, Kat and Alicia. They appear to the the main decision-makers and/or alpha females of the tribe who should have a major role in how things go (and dare I say, last well after the merge?).

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02-08-12, 00:01 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
I am glad you pointed that out Pepe. I have been thinking the same thing, specifically about Kimberley and Alicia. In a number of caps, it just looks like Kim and Alicia are the ones directing the action and Kimberly especially seems to be where they look. Alicia is very extroverted, but Kim seems to have this quiet presence.
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13. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
Pepe, here is a shot that bears out what you noted.

Power trio?

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14. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
And yet another...


I was looking at the vidcaps thread and I note in particular that Kim is all.over.the.place in key moments or key soundbites. There's the victory celebration after the challenge where they were tethered together, they're completely focused on Kim's celebration there more than anyone else's. She's got the right soundbites for a potential finale player.

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15. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
Totally agree, Pepe ... another excellent cap!

Here is Kim's soundbyte for MSN and Jeff's start of game assessment of her:

Kimberly says: "I was hoping I would look like a bridal owner and not tell anyone I used to be a whitewater rafting and outdoor adventure guide. I don't want to fly under the radar. I want to go big."

Jeff says: "Kimberly is another favorite to win. If she can get to the end, she'll win the money. She's likeable and smart enough to stay out of the way."

So Jeff is all over her chances too!

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-12, 05:39 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
So now, is she *too* omnipresent to be a potential winner?
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-12, 06:27 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Episode 1 Boot prospects"
No, because she is also eye candy, and this pre-premiere blitz is designed to draw in viewers.
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