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"Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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01-08-12, 09:42 PM (EST)
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"Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
This spoiler is not confirmed, but if it is fake, it was put out by someone who had cast information during the actual 24 filming.

A one-time poster named Travel at RFF said he/she was on a flight from Apia to Fiji on August 19th, with five persons who were probably Survivor players. This exactly coincides with the predicted merge date on TDT's calendar.

This was prior to any cast spoilers. The five described people turned out to match very well with revealed cast members.

Original post:
http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,24858.30.html

Travel
RFF Newbie
Posts: 1

Re: Survivor 23/24
« Reply #38 on: August 20, 2011, 11:12:01 PM »
Gang,

I am currently in Samoa, and they are filming now in Samoa. The crew is staying at a hotel called Aggie Grey's Resort and Spa. This must be 24 as I believe 23 may have already wrapped. I flew to Fiji yesterday for the day and on the plane were five of the cast members -- must have already been booted off. They were not Coach or Ozzie.

It included a tall clean cut blond guy; a tattooed white girl with short, dark hair; a white girl with long dark hair; a slightly bearded short white guy with dark hair, and a black guy hair that was froish. These folks were all young (under 40) and "actor looking."

They were accompanied on the trip to Fiji by a minder with an Australian accent (producer?). Americans are hard to come by in this part of the world, so an American accent stands out. This was not a group of friends travelling together.

I hired a driver in Fiji and he took me to a semi-secluded resort called "First Landing," where I ran across these Americans there. They were the only folks in the place other than moi, who went to the spa. The resort while I was there added security. The staff were cagey about who these Americans were. (There is also heavy security at Aggie Gray's). I'm fairly certain these were booted castmates. Your thoughts?
« Last Edit: August 20, 2011, 11:16:02 PM by Travel »
_________

Whoever this poster is, he/she was clearly following the summer spoiling and knew that Coach and Ozzy were on 23, knew the rough filming dates.

The spoiler was summarized at Sucks by 7o62x39 (I know Seven, he is a long time spoiler).
http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/topic/87489/S24-Here-s-what-we-have?page=1

Here was Seven's early summary of the possibilities:
"All five seen on the August 20 Samoa to Fiji flight were described as "under 40" -

(M <40) a tall clean cut blond guy;
(F, 30) Kourtney Moon - a tattooed white girl with short, dark hair;
(F <40) a white girl with long dark hair;
(M <40) a slightly bearded short white guy with dark hair,
(M <40) a black guy hair that was froish.
??? Sixth Boot - either someone can't travel on the flight or they are sequestered"

With what we know now of the cast:
(M <40) a tall clean cut blond guy; Prob. Matt Quinlan, alt Jay Byars

(F, 30) Kourtney Moon - a tattooed white girl with short, dark hair;

(F <40) a white girl with long dark hair; Prob Monica Culpepper (just over 40 but youthful looking or Kimberley Spradin).

(M <40) a slightly bearded short white guy with dark hair. Colton Cumbie.

(M <40) a black guy hair that was froish. Bill Posley

??? Sixth Boot - either someone can't travel on the flight or they are sequestered" possibly Christina Cha who tweeted about Fiji and missing paradise upon cast return?

Safe unless they are the missing sixth person:

Leif (no little person)
Nina (too old)
Greg (too old)
Troyzan (too old)
Jonas (Asian, older and not mactorish)
Christina (Asian)
Sabrina (African-American)
Alicia (Hispanic) but some say she could be "white girl with long dark hair)
Katrina (no blonde)
Chelsea (no blonde)
Michael Jefferson (hair really dark, not tall blond, and too tall to be short guy with dark hair).

Keep in mind that any one of the Safe list could be the missing #6, who might have been a) booted but too ill to fly, b) med-evac'd, c) kept on island with some chance to get back in game.

My first thought is that it looks good for the older players having some sort of successful alliance, if Troyzan, Greg, Nina, Jonas survive pre-merge (or even if three of them made jury). All except Troyzan would seem to be at risk as bigger challenge liabilities in the type of season where the mactors think they are the strong ones.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 01-10-12 1
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Brownroach 01-10-12 2
       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-10-12 4
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 01-11-12 7
               RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-11-12 8
                   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 01-12-12 9
                       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-12-12 10
                           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 01-13-12 12
                               RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-13-12 14
                                   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler tullfan 01-14-12 15
                                       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-14-12 16
                                       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler PepeLePew13 01-14-12 17
                                           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler tullfan 01-15-12 18
                                               RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-15-12 19
                                                   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler tullfan 01-16-12 20
                                               RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler PepeLePew13 01-16-12 22
                                                   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Round Robin 01-17-12 23
                                                       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-18-12 24
                                                           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 01-19-12 28
       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-13-12 11
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 01-13-12 13
               RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-18-12 25
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler jbug 01-16-12 21
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-10-12 3
 RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-11-12 5
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Brownroach 01-11-12 6
 Colton the villain Outfrontgirl 01-18-12 26
   RE: Colton the villain tullfan 01-19-12 27
 Observations post vid-caps Flowerpower 01-23-12 29
   RE: Observations post vid-caps tullfan 01-23-12 30
       RE: Observations post vid-caps Outfrontgirl 01-27-12 31
       RE: Observations post vid-caps Flowerpower 01-28-12 36
 RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler tullfan 01-27-12 32
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler baddove 01-27-12 33
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler tribephyl 01-27-12 34
       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler tullfan 01-28-12 35
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Round Robin 01-28-12 37
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-28-12 38
       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Round Robin 01-29-12 39
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-29-12 40
       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler tullfan 01-29-12 41
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 01-30-12 42
 Post Ep 1 Review Outfrontgirl 02-16-12 43
   RE: Post Ep 1 Review Flowerpower 02-16-12 44
       RE: Post Ep 1 Review Outfrontgirl 02-16-12 45
           RE: Post Ep 1 Review Flowerpower 02-16-12 46
               RE: Post Ep 1 Review Outfrontgirl 02-16-12 47
 RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 02-27-12 48
 RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-01-12 49
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 03-01-12 50
       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-01-12 51
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 03-01-12 52
               RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Round Robin 03-01-12 53
                   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-02-12 54
                       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-02-12 55
                           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 03-02-12 56
 RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-14-12 57
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler GOOU 03-14-12 58
   RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-15-12 59
       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Flowerpower 03-15-12 60
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-15-12 62
       RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler byoffer 03-15-12 61
           RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-15-12 63
 RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-22-12 64
 RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler Outfrontgirl 03-24-12 65

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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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01-10-12, 12:29 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Well, thanks for doing all of this and posting it here, OFG! And also for posting all of the significant finds over from Sucks. You are amazing, and I do know how much work it all entails so I can't tell you how much we all appreciate it! You ROCK!

I had seen mention of this siting from the plane ride to Fiji earlier myself. And, I must say it sure sounds pretty authentic. According to TDT filming was from August 1 to September 8. Here is TDT's calendar link, here. According to TDT, there could be 2 more boots prior to August 19. I note that you have the 6th boot as missing...If these are the first 5 boots, they don't move them until 5 days after the last one booted? Does anyone know what the "standard" time to move out boots is? How have other seasons gathered and transferred their boots? Perhaps someone with ties to past Survivors could answer this for us?

I have a hard time seeing any of the males as blonde...that's a question mark... I also think we have to consider that the girl under 40 with the long dark hair could also be Alicia Rosa.

Interesting to note that out of the first 5 boots, 3 are male. I wonder when the two tribes will become mixed...

I also saw the tweet marked Sept 13 from Christina Chaw...question, I know that Samoa just recently changed their time. At the time of filming, Aug 1 to Sept 8, were Samoa and Fiji on the same time? If so, can we deduce that she was actually in Fiji and not in Samoa? If she does, off the cuff, note that she had been in Fiji, than clearly, she had to have been a pre-merge boot, as the jury would be sequestered far closer to the TC set. But, could folks in Samoa refer to their time zone as "Fiji time"....say as we here in Ohio refer to our time zone as EST....?



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01-10-12, 12:44 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
LAST EDITED ON 01-10-12 AT 01:03 PM (EST)

I agree none of the men really look blond, but Matt Quinlan comes closest from the pics we have. Maybe his hair gets lighter in the sun.

ETA Here's another picture of Matt. He looks a little blonder with the light shining on his hair.

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01-10-12, 07:55 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Agreed. As someone who has light brown hair that lightens up to blonde under the sun, intense sun can do that.

Matt is an attorney from foggy San Francisco, so I assume the Samoa experience was a whole lot more sun than usual for him.

I really like the look and sound of Matt, but he may have been a threat to someone. Attorneys have a tendency to play too hard and to worry people. He may have been a minority alliance leader. He may have been swapped and taken out like Aaron in China or Marcus in Gabon.

Colton is a superfan of the game, and he too may have overplayed. We should get a better sense after Ep 1.

Courtney is the offbeat possibly misfit girl like Flicka (Jessica) or Angie.

Monica has been doing shout-outs to Sucksters who spoiled her as cast. That is not a good sign.

Bill -- not uncommon for African-American men to fall early when they are the only one in the cast. He looks strong, so either a threat or a personality thing, doesn't get in the clique, something like that.

Re Alicia, I think she too is a good candidate for an early boot. She got a family member shout-out already.

My reservation is this. The poster (most likely a guy), identifies her as a "white girl with dark hair." While a Hispanic girl could be identified as a girl with dark hair, why go out of the way to emphasize "white"? I think he saw a contrast between white skin and dark hair, and that generated the description.


Both Alicia and Kimberly have brown hair with streaks. Monica has really dark hair, as does Courtney, described as having "short, dark hair." Colton also has "dark" hair to this poster.

But he also sees Matt or Jay as blonde. Something to think about, would he call Kimberley or Alicia's hair "dark" from what we know of the other players with "dark" hair? Maybe we can't make that call.

Then there is the question of whether Monica can pass as under 40 when quickly glimpsed on a plane. She is 41, very fit. Probably wearing shades which would hide crows feet.

Thoughts?

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01-11-12, 04:03 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Thanks for the info, OFG and BR....I am probably really going to screw up this thread by answering this earlier post, but...anyway, I think you could be spot on with Christina Chaw. If Fiji and Samoa are one hour apart, than Fiji time would indeed be different. So, it boils down to either she was truthful and tweeted this privately, or, she fibbed as a screen. I'm inclined to think the former...more than likely a pre-merge boot.

Now, regarding the rumor that there is a gay romance this season, I had heard that rumor as well. Now, whether we believe it or not....where there is smoke there is fire...maybe? At any rate, it casts some doubt or question as to whether the slightly bearded, short white guy was Colton or not. The point is if there is doubt as to whether there were four boots there or not, also casts some doubt as to the blonde male.

Sorry, that pic of Matt does seem lighter, but I still would be unlikely to describe him as "blonde". Brown at best. If these are the first 4 or 5 boots, that leaves, according to TDT's calendar, there is less than 2 weeks before the 5th person is booted. Is that enough time for someone's hair to lighten up that much? I don't know. But, there is also the possibility that one of our Daws has colored his hair.

It would help to know the height of our male contestants. We know that Michael Jefferson is tall, 6'5". The blonde guy is also supposed to be tall...It would also help to know what the protocol is in removing booted players from the area....how many they transport at a time, etc. From the date, it would seem that clearly, if they are booted Survivors, that they would indeed be the first 5. Who is likely to be our numero uno?

Seems like the two that are definites are Bill Posely and Kourtney Moon. Leaves us with the tall blonde and the short slightly bearded guys, and the long dark haired girl. Perhaps when the promos come out we'll get more to go on...



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01-11-12, 07:57 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Don't worry about screwing up the thread, FP!
I was protective of keeping the other thread orderly because it was a tree with all the contestants organized on it. This isn't.

The point the original poster made was that the "cast" had American accents in a region where few do. Most non-islandrs will have New Zealand or Aussie accents. The handlers SEG uses are Australian, as is much of the crew. The poster seemed to have had opportunity to separate the Americans from the Aussies. But maybe there are one or two Americans that would be handlers. OTOH, how many handlers do you need to fly with (say) 3 cast members?

The group was later at the same resort with the poster, and he perceived them as being under security as a group.

As far as how the castaways are moved from the Ponderosa, in the past it has been done different ways, removing them in pairs or threes, but also keeping them together until the jury was ready to arrive. (I have only come across info for 3-4 seasons.)

So ... I think that it could have been done either way.

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01-12-12, 08:37 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Well, one thing is for sure, it all seems to fit! The timing, the Americans that were there together, and the amount traveling with an Aussie. Clearly, I think this siting is valid and most likely is indeed our first group of booties.

Interesting that in the past you note that they have been removed in pairs or threes....obviously, because of the dates we can eliminate keeping them all together and then removing them prior to the jury arriving as an option.

So, we are back to most likely having solid evidence for very early boots of Kourtney and Bill. The others....the tall, clean cut blond guy, the white girl with long dark hair, and the slightly bearded short white guy with dark hair are still up in the air. They sure could be the other three out of the first 5 boots.

Regarding Colton, he seems like he's over the top to me. If he comes across that way at the site, I think he indeed could be doomed. I wouldn't be surprised to see Colton as one of the first 5 at all....fwiw.


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01-12-12, 08:59 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
makes sense to me!
I agree about Colton.

>>> obviously, because of the dates we can eliminate keeping them all together and then removing them prior to the jury arriving as an option.

I am not sure about this. According to TDT's calendar, there would be six boots by August 18th, Samoa time. The poster Travel flew to Fiji on August 19th, Samoa time. Basically he flew the day after the tribal council that rounded up the sixth and final pre-merge bootee.

As for the removal of the castaways, security wise it would have been easier to keep them on Upolu. Whether they were at the Ponderosa or at the fully booked by SEG Aggie Cray's resort, they had less exposure to the public than in Fiji.

We know from the Ponderosa clips last season that the jurors were allowed to go to Apia and shop, where they could have been seen by visitors, but were not reported. The same in Nicaragua. Apparently the producers are not nearly as careful as they used to be.

The fact remains that there are not too many Americans who go to Samoa, and there are far fewer New Zealanders and Aussies who follow Survivor religiously. About 1 in 15 visitors to Samoa are from the USA. However, there was one American who did notice ...

There would be more Americans in Fiji, as it is well served by direct flights from both the US mainland and Hawai'i, whereas Samoa is not.

I guess what I am getting at is that it makes sense to transfer the pre-jurors as a group. In earlier seasons where they left in small groups, they enjoyed things like vacations in remote places in groups of three, but my sense is that SEG has stingied up ...

As to why there were only five, I can think of two reasons.

1) One escaped his notice.

2) Someone was evacuated from the game earlier on.
If you get really sick in these island countries, the standard practice is to send people to New Zealand (or Australia), as the islands only have basic medical facilities.

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01-13-12, 10:00 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
obviously, because of the dates we can eliminate keeping them all together and then removing them prior to the jury arriving as an option.

OFG, you made a great argument for keeping them all together and then removing the pre-jury boots just prior to the jury boots. So are you saying that you believe the flight siting of the five to be plants or decoys of some kind....?

I'm inclined to believe that the siting was valid....seems like an awful lot of trouble for SEG to go through to throw us off. If it's valid, than that negates the second option of keeping them all together and removing them just prior to the jury arriving.

I think we'll be able to narrow down the first boot candidates with the pre-show vidcaps. Then, with the use of the flight spoiler, perhaps we can really narrow it down. Bring on the vidcaps!


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01-13-12, 08:19 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Lol, I've properly mixed my point up, haven't I? FP, That quote you bolder was your post that I quoted to ask if you could clarify.

My point is that all six of the pre-jury were eliminated by the night before the flight in question, so there is reason to think that all five were indeed bootees.

As opposed to what I thought you said, which was that the date was too early to fly them all, so it might be only 2-3 players and the rest handlers. I think the date shows it was THE transfer. If only one is missing, SEG would not move that person separately without some reason, for instance medical.

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01-14-12, 10:20 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
I am a frequent poster at Sucks and have lurked at Blows for years. After 23 seasons, I'm finally making my first post here.

We have an interesting assortment of information. Firstly, based on the Fiji plane sighting, there is some evidence that Colton, Matt and Bill are pre-jury boots. What is interesting is that the vidcaps of the One World preview show Bill, Colton and Matt(shown in Dutch Boy challenge according to castaway208) all competing in challenges that were designed for co-ed tribes.

If castaway208 is correct about the season starting out as male vs. female, then there must be a tribal swap and Bill, Colton and Matt all last till after the swap. As precedent, there have been 10 seasons (not counting the All Stars swap debacle) with tribal swaps. In three seasons the swap occurred in episode 4. In six seasons (including Amazon and Vanuatu where the tribes started as men vs. women) the swap occurred in episode 5, During Survivor Fiji, the swap occurred in episode 6. If production follows the same precedent for the tribal swap and castaway208 is correct, then Bill, Colton and Matt would all have to last for at least 4 episodes. Assuming all of this is true then the 3 of them would have to be the boots 4-6 if the swap happens in episode 4. If the swap is in episode 5 or later then they would have to go back to a 7 person jury for all 3 of them to be pre-jury.

As a point of reference, footage for challenges that have occurred as late as episode 4 (eg. slip n' slide in Heroes vs. Villains and weight lifting in South Pacific) have been included in intros; so it would not be unusual for CBS to include challenge footage from as late as episode 4 in the pre-season intro.

It is possible that the swap happens before episode 4 but I would think that production would allow for sufficient time for strong alliances to form before introducing chaos.

Castaway208 could be wrong about the season starting with tribes separated according to gender but so far his info has been dead on. We have visual confirmation of many of the spoiled contestants from the promo and CBS has confirmed that Redemption Island will not be back for One World, so castaway208 is likely to be correct about the season starting with tribes separated according to gender. That also makes sense since it will be easier for the viewers to keep track of which tribe each contestant belongs to with everyone living at the same camp.

Regarding the missing contestant on the Fiji flight, it is possible that someone was hospitalized. Another possibility is that Leif was booted pre-jury and travelled apart from the other contestants because being a little person he would be very conspicuous being with a group of other people traveling on public transportation.

Based on how poorly another vertically challenged contestant did in challenges (Lydia from Survivor Guatemala), I could easily see Leif being booted early. He may be strong but his lack of height is clearly a disadvantage in many types of challenges

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01-14-12, 06:40 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Welcome to Blows, tullfan! I have admired your posts for years and am very glad to see you here.

Excellent point about Leif.
Thanks so much for the summary of the prior seasons.
I agree the footage could come from as late as Ep 4, definitely. I have some thoughts on the swap timing to run by you when I get a chance.

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01-14-12, 08:25 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Welcome, tullfan! Good to see you posting here...

You raise some good thoughts... it's also worth remembering that there was an early pick-em swap in Episode 2 of Exile Island -- remember Danielle picking Shane and then Shane picking Courtney? Who knew that was going to be the start of a spectacular clusterf*** for the next 25-30 days?!?

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01-15-12, 11:07 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Pepe,

I don't consider what they did in Exile Island (and also Cook Islands)to be a tribal swap. What they did in EI/CI was a reduction in the number of tribes by eliminating 2 of the tribes. A tribal swap retains the same number of tribes but changes the tribe membership. Of course, that doesn't rule out that for the first time the tribal swap in One World happens earlier than episode 4. We should get a preview next week which will determine if the tribes start out as men vs. women. If not next week, then the TV Guide preview usually shows a preview of the first challenge. If the dream team dry run of that challenge has them competing by gender then we will know that the tribes start as men vs. women.

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01-15-12, 08:10 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
That is a good distinction between swap and redistribution, tullfan. But the two are also similar in that they do a redistribution that stands to break up early alliances.

Other seasons worth mentioning here would be Palau and Fiji, where tribes were not assigned before the group had a chance to mingle for a day and a night, and then were sorted by pickem.

My spec on the One World twist is that the producers are responding to the unbreakable alliances by tribe seen in S22 & 23. IF I were in their shoes, I would want to try to encourage everything to break down that absolute blind loyalty to tribe and alliance.

Now in most cases after the first seasons where it was used, swaps have turned into a situation where the tribe that gets a numeric advantage of one then works to eliminate former members of the other tribe who are threats, prior to the merge. The exception being when the tribes have strong fractures prior to the swap, which was the case for the first swap in Africa, where Frank and T-bird tried to join Boran.

So ... swaps don't necessarily work to encourage the kind of play where alliances shift radically (although Nicaragua worked well).

My spec is that they start out by dressing the players in coded colors of warm tones (orange/pink/yellow/red) vs. cool tones (blue/green/purple) and warm vs. cool neutrals. As we have seen, this color coding is not sorted by gender.

The tribes will think they know who is on what tribe. I am wondering if the producers might pull a Fiji/Palau and leave them to mingle for a day, thinking they know how they will be sorted -- as everyone is on to the color schemes by tribe at this point.

One way to prove or disprove this idea would be to see if the supply grab is same gender only working together. I find it hard to tell in the caps so far. There is one of Greg and Michael heading out with supplies, but that is only two.

In any case, if castaway is right, they will then sort the tribes by gender.

I think we know from the caps, though, that they will do a swap, and the swap will confuse the color coding even more. There will be red clothing wearing blue buff, and blue clothing with blue buff, and the same with the orange buffs.

My guess would be that the shuffle is done by pickem, but if the producers really want to screw with alliances they will use a random mechanism.

The chaotic color scheme will work (hopefully) to decrease tribal identity, as a supplement to the twist where they all live on the same beach.

In sum -- I think that the producers want to mix things up in order to kill the possibility of yet another "first day" alliance that makes a pact to go to the end. If they have three seasons in a row where that works out, it's going to kill this franchise.

In S22 I am sure that they wanted Rob to win. Rob is a star. But in 23, they got, in their eyes, a dud winner, Sophie -- who really just rode the alliance and let Coach take the heat, but was not herself particularly well-liked or respected, only less-hated.

If I were planning it, I would do an early swap, say Episode 3. Especially if they start out men vs. women. They have acknowledged in the past that gender sorting puts a big cramp on the types of challenges they can do in order to make them equitable. I doubt they'll want to do that for very long. Having good challenges is much more important now than it was in S6 or S9.

But could well be completely wrong, as per my usual track record.
Looking forward to some footage!

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01-16-12, 10:49 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Yeah, episode 3 is the earliest possibility for a swap if in fact there is one. Unlike the last 3 seasons it is also very likely that this season will not have an early merge with 12 people left. Assuming final 3 and jury of 9, the early merge eliminates the problem of some members of the jury not getting to know some members of the Final 3 (the worst was Rebecca in Cook Islands - she hadn't spent any time living with any of the finalists). With the 2 tribes living on the same beach, there is no need for an early merge. So some of the jurors may be voted out before the merger.
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01-16-12, 05:20 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
My point was more to the fact that twists are consistently pulled out of a hat by the producers, so one can never assume anything will happen a certain way when it comes to Survivor. We're already going into this season with a radical, never-done-before-on-the-US-version twist so anything could happen on the whims of the producers.
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01-17-12, 03:07 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
I don't think this season's twist is a producers' whim kind of deal, nor will any other twists they introduce this season be producers' whim deals. I'm sure that, as has already been suggested, the producers weren't real happy with having both RI seasons turned into pagongfests by long lasting, early-established alliances, and they'd no doubt like to discourage the pagongings as much as possible without actually rigging future seasons. Under the current TC and jury voting setup a pagonging is always possible, but there have been a lot of them over the years, and they ain't real healthy for ratings, and I'm sure if there had been fewer pagongings there would also have been fewer bull$hit twists.
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01-18-12, 06:31 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
One way to discourage pagongings is mixing up tribal make-up pre-merge. When players know there is a likelihood that the "5" voting bloc strategy isn't going to work as a sure ticket to the merge, they are forced to make more sub-alliances as insurance.

They also cannot display that arrogance to other tribe members, such as the Onions did to Susie in Gabon, or Marty did to Jane, because that player on the outside might be able to flip pre-merge and vote your swapped a$$ out.

Big Brother is a game where alliances tend to be fluid and always shifting, and I think not playing in tribes, always the individual HOH (with some exceptions), is a big part of that.

Burnett wanted a social experiment. He proved that a "tribe" can be born in a very short period of time, when people are away from the rest of society. The problem is that it worked all too well. Whatever trust is to be found in the game of Survivor, gets established in the first week in most seasons.

It's time to let all the players interact from Day One, if they ever want cross-tribal alliances to succeed, and I think that is what they're going for. Of course there is a certain rivalry and protectiveness that also happens when the two tribes compete for food resources in their area, so we'll see how chummy the tribes get with each other.

Possibly enough that members take note of possible allies early on. I hope we see some secret cross-tribe conversations.

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01-19-12, 06:36 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Yes, I agree OFG, that this season there is likely going to be a different path to the finals than at least in the past 2 seasons. Clearly, there have been cross tribal alliances before, but they were due to swaps that took different folks from different tribes and placed them on the same tribe a la Cook Islands. This could be good, and will require the eventual winner to be savvy.

Now that the cast is announced and we are getting some information on the DAWS, let's examine the 5 castaways that are speculated to be the first boots.

First of all, from this picture...

I still say that the only "blonde" male is Greg Smith, the plastic surgeon, but clearly he doesn't look like he's under 40 or tall. Matt is the tall one with the hair closest to blonde, but I just wouldn't describe it as blonde....We'll have to wait and see with this bit of info. The problem with the airplane spoiler is that it's so brief, and subjective.

Jay Byers looks much beefier than he did in the pre-show pics...MUCH!

Kourtney sticks out like a sore thumb....we can deduce that she is definitely one of the first 5 speculated to be on the flight.

Bill Posely is also pretty cut and dry as well.

Now remarking on the slightly bearded, short, white guy with dark hair. When I think about the age distinctions that this observer used, <40 and <30, I think that the folks that he saw must not have been too young. In other words for him to describe them as less than 40 they most likely looked a bit older than 20's, imo. Colton is just 22, so would he be described as <40? I just don't know....

Is there any way that we can see who is short and who isn't? Greg looks much shorter than Michael Jefferson who is 6'5". Jonas is dark haired and he is shorter, would the observer neglect to note that he looked Asian?

Regarding the "white girl with long dark hair"....Kimberly has long hair but her hair definitely looks lighter, highlighted....it's not that dark, imo. In fact, I think her hair looks "blonder" than Matt's. That leaves Monica and Alicia as possibilities for the white girl with the long dark hair. I'm inclined to think this is most likely Monica.

Colton being the villain could indeed be one of the first booted then...


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01-13-12, 00:03 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"

Posted his amazing personal and professional profile from his site on the cast topic. If they boot him early, my guess he is a big threat!

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01-13-12, 10:05 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"

Yes, he is beginning to raise a red flag for me. He looks blonder in this color photo as well....perhaps he is the type that would be "sun-kissed" very quickly...yes, this could all be a very ominous sign for Matt...fwiw



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01-18-12, 06:36 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
yes he does, jbug!
Here is Matt's cast video; I think he is on the edge of blonde already, give him another week of full sun.

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/2187920133/survivor-one-world-meet-matt

I think we can see potential for a pre-merge boot here. He is going to be a threat, likable or not, and he is willing to lead. If a perceived leader gets swapped that's often the end of his game. Aaron in China, Marcus. Or his own people take him out just prior to the merge.

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01-16-12, 12:53 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Just send him over to The Bachelor; he has the look.


Agman has my heart 2012
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01-10-12, 07:28 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
So nice to see you guys warming up with me! Season coming soon!

>>> I also saw the tweet marked Sept 13 from Christina Chaw...question, I know that Samoa just recently changed their time. At the time of filming, Aug 1 to Sept 8, were Samoa and Fiji on the same time? If so, can we deduce that she was actually in Fiji and not in Samoa? If she does, off the cuff, note that she had been in Fiji, than clearly, she had to have been a pre-merge boot, as the jury would be sequestered far closer to the TC set. But, could folks in Samoa refer to their time zone as "Fiji time"....say as we here in Ohio refer to our time zone as EST....?

Good questions. Here is my take and an explanation.

Samoa changed its date, but not its time of day. Samoa and Fiji are one hour apart. I am not aware of any regional expression such as "Fiji Time" outside of Fiji.

Now, we must keep in mind that contestants can lie when they tweet. That is, she could have just returned from Samoa, but called it Fiji as part of her cover story. Her tweet was set to private though.

Here's the thing, Fiji makes total sense as the holding place for the booted pre-mergers. I looked into this resort after I made this post. This resort is 15 minutes from NAN international airport, the Fiji gateway.

Now when the first two seasons were filmed in Samoa, ANZ was flying a non-stop from LAX to APW (Apia, Samoa). However, that flight is no more, and the only ways to connect with one stop to Apia are through Fiji and Honolulu. The Honolulu flights are only twice a week, and not particularly an efficient way to route it, so SEG almost certainly used Fiji as its transit country.

So it is entirely efficient to park the pre-jurors a short shuttle away from the airport to await the rest of the cast so that they can return together. I think the days of exotic trips to Patagonia and so forth are gone. Budget cuts.

The key word that jumps out at me from CC's tweet is "paradise." She misses it. The game is not paradise. Late-gamers and jurors tweet about how grateful they are to be back, but her tweet sounds like a person who was having a wonderful time and is sorry to be back in the rat-race.

As noted, tweets can be complete fabrications, but I tend to think the underlying state of mind is still going to shape the fabrication. If a person is homesick, there are ways to fib while still expressing that sentiment.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_file
s/4d6c77f2d539489d.jpg

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01-11-12, 01:03 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
LAST EDITED ON 01-11-12 AT 01:10 AM (EST)

A Sucks spoiler Pocahotness claims there will be a gay showmance this season per a source, and that the guy on the plane was a production person, not Colton. (Colton is gay, and P is spec'ing would be a shoe-in for half the showmance, while someone else points out that Colton had a SO before going out to Samoa).

I don't know this poster. The other Sucksters are flaming him or her, so clearly not someone with a source track record. Keeping an open mind.

ETA casting video.
http://www.video-survivor.com/v2/show_video.php?video_id=130
Will be surprised if he finds love connection with Matt or Jay (have no idea if they are gay, those are just the guys the gay folks on Sucks are hoping will be gay, and I assume their gaydar is better than mine.

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01-11-12, 02:10 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
I watched that video yesterday. I got a bad feeling when he started saying how he's a whiz at Survivor trivia. Not another Cochran, I hope.

People who claim to know everything about every episode of Survivor rarely if ever turn out to be good players, it seems to me (Rob C in Amazon was an exception, but even he got booted at the very end).

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01-18-12, 11:42 PM (EST)
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26. "Colton the villain"
Jeff says so ... can he go pre-merge? Discuss

Dalton: "Of course, no Survivor is complete without a villain, and Probst says this season’s baddie comes in the form of gay Republican Colton Cumbie. “He doesn’t know it, but he is a full-on villain. He thinks he’s the most charming guy ever. He’s a devil and I don’t even think he’s disguised.”

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01-19-12, 10:53 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Colton the villain"
Based on Jeff's description, If Colton is out pre-merge, his edit will be comparable to Boston Rob in Marquesas. If Colton goes early, I expect that he will be outrageous and heavily featured in the early episodes.
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01-23-12, 01:33 PM (EST)
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29. "Observations post vid-caps"
Now that we have some vidcaps to examine, I have a few observations...

1. Colton appears short, rather than tall...

Michael, standing behind Colton is 6'5". Colton appears appreciably shorter...

Could he be the slightly bearded short white guy with dark hair . The only other possibilities imo would be either Jonas or Lief. I think that Jonas and Lief could have been described as a Little Person or an Asian appearing man. Colton, imo, is the best fit for this description.

2. Matt does appear blondish....he is most likely to be the tall clean cut blond guy.


3. Kourtney, a tattooed white girl with short, dark hair....

4. Bill, the black guy hair that was froish...

5. This leaves one more... a white girl with long dark hair. Most likely one of these...




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01-23-12, 08:05 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Observations post vid-caps"
Without any supporting evidence to back up this sighting, we can't even be sure that all of the people that were seen on the flight were contestants. Colton isn't tall but from judging from the photo of the men's tribe, Colton does appear to be taller than 4 others on the men's team (Greg, Jonas, Bill and of course Leif) and Bill, if he were in fact sighted, is not described as short by the poster. On the other hand, the other possibilities for the short white male are Jonas and Lief, but I've seen that both of them sometimes wear eye glasses.

We also have photographic evidence that Bill, Matt and Colton all make it past the tribal swap which would make it likely that they would all would have to be booted in succession with the two women and the evacuated person the first 3 out. They could do the swap earlier than the 4th episode but that would be a first. It wouldn't make too much sense to do a tribal swap in episode 2 on day 4 or day 5 before the viewers got to know the contestants well enough to keep track of who was on what tribe. The only reason they changed the tribes on season 12 was because the pick'em served as a vehicle to determine who would be sent to Exile Island and they needed an odd number of contestants for that. So I would think that episode 3 for the tribal swap would be the earliest.

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01-27-12, 07:44 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Observations post vid-caps"
But the group wasn't just seen on the flight. The poster also went to the resort they were at, and saw them there as a group, the only folks at the resort, and the group all had American accents, and had a handler who did not have the same accent.

I think that establishes that this was the group. If it were a hoax, the poster should have gotten the number right, but it was one short. We now know there was a med-evac; however, one person we know that was injured, Kourtney, was on the flight.

There is only one player with dark hair, under 40, who could be called short or on the short side, and that is Colton. Remember that he was called short by a poster, and we all have our own standards of what is short, but Michael at 6'5" is not short in anyone's book, nor is Jay. Greg is too old. Leif is not short; he is a little person. Jonas would be described as Asian, I agree with FP.

When people describe strangers, they start with gender, ethnicity, age, and accent as obvious points of differentiation. Also scars, tattoos, marks, prosthetics, anything that is unusual.

If none of those markers exist with which to differentiate, then they go to hair, height, skin color. So if you have a group of young, good-looking people who are mostly Caucasian, you first mention the obviously ethnic members, in this case only Bill. If Jonas or Christina or Alicia were among them, they should have been ID'd by ethnicity.

Kourtney has tattoos. That leaves one Caucasian woman, WHITE skin and DARK hair, sounds like Monica, not Kimberly. Leaves two guys, one taller and one shorter, one blonder and one dark. Their hair color and height are a way to distinguish these two, so it doesn't matter if Matt is blond blond or if Colton is super short. Matt is blonder and taller than Colton.

The poster doesn't see the rest of the cast, so their looks are not part of the picture in terms of finding distinguishing differences between them.

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01-28-12, 10:01 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: Observations post vid-caps"
Hi tullfan, thanks for posting. I was just wondering about the "photographic evidence" of Matt making it past the tribal swap? As far as I can see, I have not seen any photographic evidence of him past episode 1...

There is proof of Jonas, Leif, Troyzan, Greg, Colton, Bill. Let us know, thanks!



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01-27-12, 08:03 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
LAST EDITED ON 01-27-12 AT 08:04 PM (EST)

The more times that I read this spoiler, the more I think that it is a hoax. Just who is this mysterious poster Travel who posted this at RFF and then never posted again? This poster seems to know too much and the spoiler details seem too perfect.
Here are my questions.

1. How and why does this random person know where the crew was staying in Samoa?
2. This spoiler was posted at RFF on Aug. 20th. Travel was aware that Coach and Ozzy were cast for season 23. I'm not sure of the exact time frame but Aug 20 was around the time that CBS revealed that Coach and Ozzy were cast for season 23. If this info was released by CBS prior to Aug 20 then it had been out there for at most only a few days.
3. Travel, who posted that he was staying in Samoa, decides to take a plane to Fiji and just by coincidence ends up on the same flight as the pre-jury booted contestants. Why would Mark Burnett Productions even allow Survivor contestants to fly on public flights rather than hire a chartered flight to take them to Fiji? Also, the chartered flight would probably be cheaper.
4. As a second coincidence, Travel hires a driver in Fiji who takes him to the same semi-secluded resort where the castaways are staying and that no one else is staying at this spa other than Travel and the 5 castaways. Now Travel is staying in Fiji when at the beginning of this post Travel said that he was staying in Samoa.
5. How does Travel know that these people are not friends when he says that they are all under 40 and "actor looking"? I could see this being concluded if the 5 were a mix of young and middle-aged.

The more carefully I read this, the fishier it gets. The tweet by Christina Cha that indicates that she was a pre-jury boot seems more reliable than Travel's post and she was not likely to have been one of the 5 sighted by Travel.

Anyone else agree?

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01-27-12, 08:55 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
I am likewise skeptical.
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01-27-12, 09:24 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
A little bit of devil's advocate here but...

What if RFF Newbie IS the 6th bootee?

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01-28-12, 09:34 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
>A little bit of devil's advocate
>here but...
>
>What if RFF Newbie IS the
>6th bootee?


tribephyl,

I have considered the possibility that Travel is one of the pre-jurors. But we still have no proof of whether the descriptions given are of the contestants that were actually voted out or not.


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01-28-12, 10:04 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
This could have been an intentional deception job arranged by SEG. It could also have been a group of other people connected to Survivor, or they might have not been connecte to Survivor at all. It might seem like a lot of money to spend on bull$hitting the spoilers, but if their credibility can be further damaged, it might be worth what SEG would spend on it.
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01-28-12, 09:10 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
It could certainly be a hoax. I am open to that.

I share the skepticism. It could have been a CBS planted hoax. A total made-up hoax based on no real info would not have matched up as well with the contestants, so it either genuine or an insider hoax.

I can answer part of your questions, so we can see how much of the real concern remains.
_____

1. How and why does this random person know where the crew was staying in Samoa?

Answer: I knew it, and everyone there would know it. There is only one resort of any size on Upolu, and that is Aggie Grey's. It was much publicized for the first filming of how weddings were ruined that had been planned for months when Aggie's emailed customers with pre-existing reservations and said they would not honor them due to Survivor fully booking it.

In fact, spoiling the place the crew stays is one of the ways to confirm that a location is hosting Survivor. I did some of that with Cook Islands.

In sum: not an issue

2. This spoiler was posted at RFF on Aug. 20th. Travel was aware that Coach and Ozzy were cast for season 23. I'm not sure of the exact time frame but Aug 20 was around the time that CBS revealed that Coach and Ozzy were cast for season 23. If this info was released by CBS prior to Aug 20 then it had been out there for at most only a few days.

A: not an issue. Dani at Skills broke the Ozzy/Coach spoiler on May 24th, and it was discussed all over the boards for almost three months prior to this post.

3. Travel, who posted that he was staying in Samoa, decides to take a plane to Fiji and just by coincidence ends up on the same flight as the pre-jury booted contestants. Why would Mark Burnett Productions even allow Survivor contestants to fly on public flights rather than hire a chartered flight to take them to Fiji? Also, the chartered flight would probably be cheaper.

Travel said he/she took a day trip. I wouldn't put it that he just coincidentally ended up on the same flight. More like, on the flight, it happened there was a reality TV fan. Because the fan saw something, he posted. Not like the fan was hoping to get a spoiler and just happened to get the right flight.

SEG has been flying contestants on public flights for all this time. There was, for example, a flight spoiler for the Outback. IIRC, at that time the jury and pre-jury flew home separately. After that, they flew together back to the USA so that they would be in one group.

I think that due to the fact the contestants are unknown to the public at this point, the producers feel the cast will not be obvious.

As for the Fiji resort, it is VERY close to the airport, so it is ideal for both a quick getaway and for a place to hold the contestants prior to flying home. I checked out the travel forums for that area. This resort is not obscure and has plenty of buzz. There was some construction going on during this period, and that put some people off. However, it was open to the public.

Point: There should have been other people there.
Point: It is barely possible to do a day trip to Fiji given current flight times for Air Pacific, the only nonstop flight. On Fridays, the flight does not leave until afternoon, and returns after 2 am Saturday, and it costs about $500.

4. As a second coincidence, Travel hires a driver in Fiji who takes him to the same semi-secluded resort where the castaways are staying and that no one else is staying at this spa other than Travel and the 5 castaways. Now Travel is staying in Fiji when at the beginning of this post Travel said that he was staying in Samoa.

No, Travel said he went to a spa in Fiji for the day and was posting at RFF from Aggie Grey's the following day.

5. How does Travel know that these people are not friends when he says that they are all under 40 and "actor looking"? I could see this being concluded if the 5 were a mix of young and middle-aged.

Mmm, well I give benefit of the doubt that in-flight observation led him to conclude the group was something else, and I think the Survivor presence plus the Americans with a Kiwi "handler" was the tipoff.
____

The more carefully I read this, the fishier it gets. The tweet by Christina Cha that indicates that she was a pre-jury boot seems more reliable than Travel's post and she was not likely to have been one of the 5 sighted by Travel.

Agree about Christina.

My main reservation is that the day trip story is weird, because of the flight times and the expense for very little payoff, unless the person works for an airline and can fly standby. OTOH, a hoaxster could have easily made a story without that issue, and the flight times may have changed since last August.

OTOH, if you follow RFF at all, the TAR forum, you will see that on about half the legs flown by TAR and the tasks too, there are fans around the world who see the filming and tweet or post about it. RFF is a network of fans that stalk TV productions on a global level, and there is nothing weird about a fan happening on a bit of Survivor and taking it to RFF right away.

My guess would be that if legit, Traveler is some other RFF poster who is a regular, who decided to use a ghost for this because SEG has started suing people who post spoilers of their show.

Or it is a hoax, or it is a crew member having a laugh. If a hoax, I believe it is an inside job.

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01-29-12, 03:29 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
If this is a hoax, I'd almost be willing to bet you're right about it being an inside job. It's either somebody connected to Survivor or a friend, relative or acquaintance thereof. Probst has been known to admit in the past that them what're in charge have deliberately arranged for falsehoods to be leaked to the spoiler community, and with so much spoilage going on recently and the Jim Early lawsuit having apparently not been enough to scare the hounds off the trail, it would be no shock that CBS/SEG would intentionally leak some bull$hit in an effort to expose or discredit the spoilers. A non-insider would IMO be more likely to try to spoil the show themselves than bull$hit other spoilers, so IMO odds are that OFG is right that if this is a hoax CBS/SEG personnel instigated it themselves.
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01-29-12, 08:43 AM (EST)
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40. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
I don't believe that anybody could have made up this spoiler who did not have knowledge of the cast. There was no cast spoilage whatsoever at this point. Production knew, casting knew, and someone on a plane could luck out ... but the odds of making up a hoax and hitting on descriptions that worked for the cast are about nil.

For example, there is a very high chance the cast will have an African-American man, but it has been a long time since SEG cast one with a "fro." Not a lucky guess.

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01-29-12, 10:44 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Outfrontgirl.

I am impressed by your knowledge and analysis. I just think that it is more likely that this spoiler was posted by someone who has inside knowledge of Survivor One World rather than someone who is really into Survivor who was staying in Samoa and just happened to take a day trip to a spa in Fiji and to take the same flight as the pre-jury booted contestants.

In regard to the RFF community spoiling Amazing Race, CBS has caught on to them and while recent races have been filming, CBS now has emplayees planting fake sightings on twitter. Because many of the destinations on season 20 are remote, RFF did not have as much success in spoiling season 20 as they did with other recent races. Many of the sightings reported on twitter (eg. Qatar, Nepal) turned out to be fake.

The theory that Travel could be one of the actual contestants that was on the Fiji flight is a good one. The TAR detectives who have actually seen the race filming don't generally use a ghost ID when reporting.

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01-30-12, 11:46 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
I didn't know that about fake TAR tweets. Thanks!

I tend to agree with your analysis, although I remain open. The fact that Traveler never came back and confirmed who he had seen after the cast was announced is another point against its validity.

If I had spoiled this, I would be back saying that I now know I saw these specific contestants. (I just thought of that.)

>>> The TAR detectives who have actually seen the race filming don't generally use a ghost ID when reporting.

Ah, but then it was not CBS or WWR that sued missyae. It was Mark Burnett himself. TAR detectives have no fear that MB will go after them.

But yeah, I'm leaning towards "we've been hoaxed" at this point.

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02-16-12, 07:00 PM (EST)
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43. "Post Ep 1 Review"
While I have this spoiler as at least 50/50 hoax now, it is interesting to look at knowing the opening dynamics.

Kourtney, gone:

Monica: At risk, not in majority challenge, not seen in basketball challenge.

Matt: First on the hit list for the misfits if they ally.

Bill: Part of muscle men alliance so disposable if Colton rallies misfits.

Colton: On everyone's hit list once his idol is gone.

Tweeter Christina: On Alicia's hit list at first TC, escaped with no vote.

Initially, Matt and Bill fit the profile of strong guys who are not out early, and would not necessarily have been predicted to go early, but now it is rather more clear how that could happen.

Also seemed unlikely that Leif and Jonas and especially Greg/Tarzan would not be at risk, but if they and Troyzan ally with Colton, we could see a Vanuatu style slaughter of the hot guys.

Of course, if the men all make it to the swap, that 5-person potential alliance never tests its power, so we would have to look at the swap.

Per FP:

New Manono: Leif, Bill, Alicia, Jonas, Colton, Christina, Greg, Mystery woman seen with Sabrina -- Chelsea?

Here, Colton, Jonas, Greg if Misfit alliance exists, could target Bill, the only Muscletastic 4 on Nu Manono.

New Salini: (Monica?), Jay, Katt, Sabrina, Troyzan, Matt, Kimberly, Michael

Here we see 3 of the Muscletastic 4, all but Bill. However, if Troyzan goes with the women, Matt is a likely boot.

In a normal season, those four guys would have a ticket almost to the merge, but due to the rivalry and drama that started off this season, the alpha males could just be everybody's first pick to be out of there.

The main problem I see with the spoiler is Nina not part of it. Of course we do have one of the pre-merge folks not in the Flight Five.

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44. "RE: Post Ep 1 Review"
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-12 AT 08:01 PM (EST)

Hi OFG, glad that you are revisiting this spoiler, because I have thought about it too. I believe that it appears that Nina and Matt are doomed. Most likely to go as pre-tribal shuffle boots.

You know, now that we have a new identified IC in ep 2, that was formerly not known, we know that most likely, the tribal shuffle will occur in episode 4. So, if the shuffle is indeed in episode 4, and there is 3 people out of the game, it must be 2 women, and 1 man.

Most likely it will be Kourtney(known), Nina - could possibly be Monica. For the men, they are all seen except Troyzan or Matt. An educated guess at this point would indeed be Matt, as Colton looks like he is going to rally the misfits, and take down the head of the dominant men, Matt. Troyzan could be an incidental target however if he refuses to play, or sits on the fence.....we have often seen fence sitters get sacrificed...hello Dolly

OFG: With my latest spec, however, I think it is more likely that Bill will end up on the Salani Blue tribe post shuffle. With 8 guys left I think it is likely to be a 4/4 shuffle, equal amount of guys on both tribes. With 7 girls left it will have to be a 4/3 swap. If Salani is down 2, they are the tribe that will be short...in other words, they will have 7 members, while Manono will have 8....if it's uneven numbers at the shuffle...

We have seen:
new Salani: Jay, Michael, Katt, Sabrina, Kim ?Troy/?Matt/?Bill
new Manono: Colton, Jonas, Leif, Greg, Chelsea, Christina, Alicia, ?Monica

My spec now is that Monica will actually go to the new Manono tribe, we have seen evidence of their 4 men already present in the post shuffle challenges - Colton, Jonas, Leif, Greg, so now they need 4 girls, as they are the tribe that will be up by one in number. WE have seen evidence of Chelsea, Christina, Alicia all on orange, so I think Monica will also be on Manono post shuffle.

That leaves the tribe with 7, 4/3 guys to girls as Jay, Michael, Bill, and one of Troy/Matt, along with the three girls Katt, Sabrina, Kim.

Just throwing this out there....would make it harder to see how Bill could be voted out when he's with his boys post shuffle.

This spec could be wrong and they are just placed helter skelter on tribes...?


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02-16-12, 08:12 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Post Ep 1 Review"
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-12 AT 08:12 PM (EST)

I was hoping you'd show up and revisit the tribes, because I figured you'd already be on it.

My brain is mush today, sorry?

In case the shuffle turns out to be a pickem or completely random rather than a gender-controlled shuffle, would you mind making a list of what we know for sure, including unknown blue/orange males and females where we know a gender, such as the Manono girl Sabrina is holding?

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02-16-12, 08:46 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Post Ep 1 Review"
Good idea, OFG. In fact, I think I will start a new thread on the topic....so we can add to what we know with the 2 more additional episodes that are likely to occur before the tribal shuffle episode.



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02-16-12, 08:55 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Post Ep 1 Review"
Good idea, that topic doesn't belong in a source spoiler topic anyway. It can be migrated over here for possible application to the spoiler.
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02-27-12, 00:59 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
I notice that TDT leaves room for 8 people to be booted by this date, leaving 10 in the game. So, as they pointed out to me at Sucks, there could be two groups of pre-merge vacationers (the norm really not to have just one).

If they send them all away at the same time, there could three on another flight, Nina, and I would guess Christina because of her tweet, and someone else.

Kourtney, Matt, Bill, Colton, Monica or Alicia.

Nina, Christina, and ...

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03-01-12, 05:34 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
"tattooed white girl with short, dark hair" CHECK

"Tall clean-cut blond guy." CHECK

TBD
"a white girl with long dark hair" Monica not seen in water basketball

"a black guy hair that was froish" Bill totally on boot radar

"a slightly bearded short white guy with dark hair" Colton an HII away from losing his grip on Colton's world."

There were EIGHT boots by date of flight.
Other three:
NINA
? Christina?
?

If nuManono is Colton, Jonas, Leif, Bill, Greg, Alicia, Christina

Colton, Bill, Christina would be 3 out of 7, and it really is not a stretch to see it play out that way. Bill will go first. Once Jonas, Leif, Greg have numbers, they can get rid of Colton who is completely untrustworthy and look to get back with Troyzan post-merge. We know that Alicia will be happy to boot Christina.

Of the Salani group:
Kim, Chelsea, Kat, Sabrina are tight and can control that tribe. Troyzan has been decent to the ladies. Jay has been so so but is strong and flexible in how he plays, his muscle alliance is dead. Michael is a target but he might be needed until the merge.

I think they would boot Michael if it's close to the merge. The girls should boot Kat this next time, but we know they don't do it pre-swap, and post-swap the girls can't afford to let go of numbers, so that explains how she would make merge even though she messes up so much.

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03-01-12, 07:24 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Yes, I am beginning to think that the Flight of Five Spoiler is indeed coming to fruition. My question is, when will the merge take place this season? Do you think that they will merge at F10, when the flight supposedly took place - 8 are gone?



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03-01-12, 10:22 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
According to TDT's calendar, 8 will have been booted by the time of the flight, and merge should be the day after the flight. I don't know what his basis is for the date of the merge, but the 8 boots should be right, with a double boot likely in there.
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03-01-12, 11:14 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Let's play around with speculation here...IF the flight spoiler is NOT a hoax and there were 8 gone at the time, then the eight most likely would be in order...

F18 Kourtney
F17 Nina
F16 Matt
F15 ?Monica
Tribal Shuffle occurs
F16 ?Bill
F15 ?Colton
F14 ?Christina
F13 ?Alicia most at risk on nuManono, ?Michael or Troyzan most at risk for Salani (possible double boot?)

Merge with possibly 4 girls - Chelsea, Kim, Kat, Sabrina, and 5 guys left: Leif, Greg, Jonas, Jay, Troy/Michael? Would spell dominance by the male tribe if it were to occur like this...?

OR, it could work out like this...

F18 Kourtney
F17 Nina
F16 Matt
F15 ?Monica
Tribal Shuffle occurs
F14 ?Bill
F13 ?Colton
F12 ?Double boot episode? ?Christina, F11?Michael/Troyzan
Merge occurs
Merge: Alicia, Kat, Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina; Leif, Greg, Jonas, Jay, one of Troyzan/Michael This would make for a more interesting scenario with the gender split 5/5. Who ever is the boot, would possibly spell dominance for one gender to the end?


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03-01-12, 12:35 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Unless there is a recrap episode, there doesn't even need to be a double boot episode if they do a final 3 and do the usual 14 episodes. So if we see a double boot episode, either there is a final 2 or there is a recrap.
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03-02-12, 04:20 AM (EST)
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54. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Apparently they don't do Final 2 any more as a planned outcome unless it's a 16 player season. The only F2 we've had for an 18 or more player season, since they started in Cook Islands (S13), was not planned.

Alexis and James out in one ep late game in Micronesia (S16), so season became a F4 Finale instead of F5, to account for the missing TC.

Tocantins was a special throwback season to classic Survivor -- 16 players, no swap, F2.

The idea behind F3 was to make it too hard to take a goat to the end -- unfortunately the players adapted and began taking two goats if they could.

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03-02-12, 04:28 AM (EST)
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55. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
LAST EDITED ON 03-02-12 AT 04:31 AM (EST)

People on Sucks have been arguing that Colton is not really short. I guess he is 5'11. Granted he would be seen next to Matt, but also next to Bill. Someone who knows Colton says he is too pleased with himself to have gone out pre-jury.

Jeff did call him the villain of the season. It is rare for a memorable villain to go out so early. Even Mariano Marquesas made the merge.

It is hard to imagine describing Leif as "short" if you are a fan breaking news. I would think the person would be so excited to break the news of a little person on Survivor. There certainly was a rumor of one early on, because when the F5 spoiler came out, there was spec at the time that Charla from TAR was going to be on, and people were saying if she got booted she would have been sequestered to avoid the recognition (as was Jimmy Johnson).

Anyhow, I'm leaving room that the slightly bearded short guy with brown hair is not Colton. OTOH, slightly bearded is about right, as he's just beginning to show one ... six days in he is what I'd call unshaven looking, give him another six days and it might be a slight beard.

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03-02-12, 10:09 AM (EST)
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56. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Here are the guys and we can see their relative heights...

and, how many "slightly bearded, short, white guys are there? Also, note that the person thought they were all mactor types, all under 40. Troyzan, to me, looks definitively older than 40. Colton IS the only shorter white guy there with DARK hair. Clearly, Leif would have been described as a little person, and Jonas would not have been described as white, he would have been described as Asian, no?

Colton would be proud of himself for making big moves, imo....and he sure caused alot of drama, and he successfully got out the alpha male. I have little doubt, that if this spoiler comes to fruition that Colton is indeed the one they could be describing.

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03-14-12, 04:58 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
bumping, stupid spam topics are burying things.
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03-14-12, 09:16 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Thank you!
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03-15-12, 07:19 AM (EST)
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59. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Monica posted this:


http://twitter.com/monicaculpepper/status/180175364906172418/photo/1/large

T-shirt says
Front:
Flight Five to Fiji
The COOL Ones

Back:
HOT MOMICA
"Long dark hair (WAY) under 40"

MONICA CULPEPPER ‏ @monicaculpepper
Good news.. brad made ALL on flight 5 some sweet shirts.. The invisible woman, Luna with the tats, rooster, froish hair, dark hair under 40!

Hey my loving sucksters!!! Hot off the press'.!!! Let me know if you want one! Thanks for the ❤!
__________

So that's the whole group ... Nina was on the flight "invisible" and the short guy wasn't a contestant. Love her sense of fun.

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03-15-12, 08:47 AM (EST)
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60. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Rooster was Matt?
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03-15-12, 09:03 AM (EST)
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62. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
Yes, if you read Matt's tweets (which are funny), he is constantly referring to himself as Rooster.
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03-15-12, 08:53 AM (EST)
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61. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
The other shirt says "I Only Kiss *booted* Reality Stars".

Must be Monica's hubby. Is this at the airport upon arriving back? Did she bring him a ski touque from Fiji?? Or did he go to meet her there?

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03-15-12, 09:07 AM (EST)
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63. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
LAST EDITED ON 03-15-12 AT 09:11 AM (EST)

No, they are in the snow in Washington and I think they were dressed for watching her boot episode or something. Apparently her husband made shirts for the flight five or had them made, and one for himself.

She was tweeting during the show. She had to wait to watch it because she was in Pacific time.

Matt introduced her (via tweet) to Francesca and Sophie, saying all three are "bomb a$$ ladies."

Matt also said Lots of ridiculously unbelievable episodes ahead!

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03-22-12, 06:10 AM (EST)
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64. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
RIP oh Flight Five, you were a most excellent spoiler.

The one piece of into it still gives us is the flight was August 19th.
The last day of this cycle was August 17th. Next day will be the 18th. Next boot will be the 19th or 20th. If there had been another non-juror, they could have waited a day.

Twelve are left. Pretty good sign there is a F12, jury of nine. They didn't have to fly them out simply because of the merge. They fly them out because they have to get them away from the jurors before they arrive at Ponderosa.

So the next boot should start the jury.
Happy there is no more Redemption Island and time-delay on the jurors!

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-24-12, 10:58 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: Flight to Fiji Pre-Jury Spoiler"
https://twitter.com/#!/monicaculpepper/status/183702924910792704/photo/1

@monicaculpepper
"Flight 5 to Fiji.... The cool ones... Leaving Ponderosa!!!"

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