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"Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 03:09 AM (EST)
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"Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
Things are already starting to spread out so, time for a one in all.

As of this posting Maxx hath not spoken.

So as far as we can tell there will be 2 people to boot and 3 prime candidates for bootation.

Ozzy. Numero Uno on pretty much everyone's list. Of course, this bars any future immunity challenge wins, which should be often given his record.

Jim. The master manipulator and also the biggest hothead. He has voiced his (unneeded) opinions at most Savaii crossroads and frankly outside of the last TC has been in control of the bootee. He also carries some Immunity winning potential, which is surely of concern.

Whitney. As evidenced by Jim's assessment, Whitney is a non-entity and can be gotten rid of at any time. (Why that makes her the best choice to hand an HI to, I don't know but...)

I of course should open it up to Cochran and Dawn as well but really? Does anyone have a great case for Cochran getting the boot? Could Jim really sway a TC vote?
Certainly Dawn won't get the boot, right?

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion dabo 11-05-11 1
 RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion Corvis 11-05-11 2
 RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion Belle Book 11-05-11 3
 RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion Krautboy 11-05-11 4
   RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion dabo 11-05-11 5
       RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion Krautboy 11-05-11 6
           RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion PepeLePew13 11-05-11 7
               RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion Brownroach 11-06-11 11
                   RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion Krautboy 11-06-11 16
           RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion Outfrontgirl 11-05-11 8
 Maxx is up Gothmog 11-05-11 9
   RE: Maxx is up Outfrontgirl 11-06-11 10
       RE: Maxx is up SquidProQuo 11-06-11 12
           RE: Maxx is up Brownroach 11-06-11 13
               RE: Maxx is up Outfrontgirl 11-06-11 15
   RE: Maxx is up Belle Book 11-06-11 14

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 09:32 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
I hate to say it but I think Jim's number is up the second he starts his boot Cochran campaign. Good for him that he tries something to still play the game, but that play has no chance of working. That won't bump him ahead of Ozzy, but if Ozzy wins the next II Jim is toast.

Ozzy's game got screwed. Oh, like that never happened before. Ozzy is getting a build-up as a potential RI champ, he even has a plan for using RI to make friends on the jury. He doesn't need to go just yet to make friends with Keith so he'll try to Colby for awhile, but he knows he's gone the second he loses an IC.

Whitney. Time for the big emotional drama queen outburst, she lost her precious Keith. As God as Mah witness Ah will nevah go hungry aga-in! Whitney folds and waits her turn.

Dawn. Dawn is good people, she'll stick around a bit in a mom role. Some people just check out of the game and enjoy the ride as much as possible, there is still adventure to be had, she and Cochran will probably Rodger-Liz to be the last two Savaii standing.

Cochran. Cochran will not be sent to Redemption as long as Jim, Keith or Ozzy is still at Redemption, that would be the combination of his worst nightmare (extended failure at RI) and his other worst nightmare (alone with the bullies). He will be spared that if at all possible.

Right now I'm thinking:
II: Ozzy
Boot: Jim
Duel: Keith wins
II: dunno
Boot: Ozzy

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Corvis 3116 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 10:05 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
I agree that it's going to be Jim and Ozzy in some order, mostly depending on whether one of them wins immunity. Whitney will get booted if in the second vote whichever of Jim or Ozzy is remaining has immunity.

I am glad they're doing a double boot - moves the pagonging along so we can get to the real game play. There is going to be 9 people remaining after this boot. Good time for three of Upolu (Edna, Rick, Brandon?) to band with Cochran and Dawn and flip the game.

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Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 11:35 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
I have to agree -- Jim, Ozzy and Whitney are the most likely ones to be sent home this round, with Whitney going only if Ozzy somehow gets Immunity for the first and second votes! And I don't think that is going to happen!

Therefore, because I think Albert will win Immunity Ozzy will be the first one to go. He won't mind because then he can win future challenges at Redemption Island -- and if he sticks around long enough for Upolu to send Cochran over, he can also get some revenge!

Jim will be the next one to go since he's the mastermind of the "Get rid of Cochran now" campaign, which none of Upolu (not even Albert) will fall for. Oh sure, there will be plenty of misdirection to suggest that Upolu will get rid of Cochran but I saw Cook Islands, where Jonathan was the one the former members or Raro tried to get out before them and it only worked after Candice was voted out -- and only because the Aitu 4 didn't want Jonathan around long anyway. And since Cochran isn't as aggressively strategic as Jonathan, Upolu has even less reason to get rid of Cochran before the end of the Pagonging than the Aitu-4 did when getting rid of Jonathan!

As for Dawn, she's not a huge threat to win challenges and since Cochran did try to convince her to join him. I'm sure that Upolu will take Cochran's affection for Dawn into account and spare her until the other three are gone or unless Ozzy not only outlasts Jim and Whitney but also wins the next Immunity Challenge!


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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 01:55 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
Ozzy and Jim make the most sense. The biggest challenge threat and the biggest strategic threat. Ozzy is first if he doesn't win Immunity. Jim goes first if Ozzy does.

Since we have a double TC, both should go this week. Next week we should have a triple duel and our first two jurors...probably Keith and Jim.


Krautboy

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 02:06 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
see Probst Quote -- no multi-person duels.

I do think Jim has a pretty good chance of winning the second II if it is a memory challenge, if he isn't booted first. None of them know he is a poker player and pot dealer, they think he is a school teacher.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 07:14 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
I don't think we can take Probst literally. I think he just meant to say that only the winner will stay in the game. Both losers will burn their buffs. The logistics of two one-on-one duels would simply take too much time.


Krautboy

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 07:17 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
LAST EDITED ON 11-05-11 AT 07:17 PM (EST)

Umm, he said "...we're only having two-person duels. We're not having multi-person duels." so that seems pretty clear to me.

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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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11-06-11, 09:01 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-11 AT 09:05 AM (EST)

They could do a two-part duel, based on the order they were sent to RI. First Keith vs let's say Ozzy, if Ozzy goes next. Whoever loses that duel is out; the winner segues to a second duel with the third arrival. Loser out; winner waits for next arrival.

Eta to Krautboy -- I didn't notice your comment but I think they would be able to come up with a double-duel that would be over pretty quickly.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-06-11, 10:13 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
BR: Yeah, the more I think about it, two quick back to back duels would be doable...I just think a three-way challenge would be more fun to watch...with only the winner staying in the game.

\
Krautboy

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 07:35 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Ep 9 Boot Discussion"
Perhaps they thought the odds were tougher than they liked for a duelist to play one in three to continue at RI. The 1 survives out of 4 odds were certainly rough in the final duel in S23. I mean, it is one's "life in the game" at stake, so a duel to the death between two people would seem more appropriate.

I lean towards
First boot: Ozzy
Second boot: Whitney

I think Jim has a very good shot at winning a memory type challenge.
I think that Whitney's story being done right now would make sense in light of her near absence to the show. She could be like Kelly of Galu.

Jim is a big strategic character and he has been in the background of late. Maybe I am too optimistic, but I'd like to see him get a chance to try to play his way out of this.

The reason I think Ozzy is first out is mostly because I have vibes that Whitney is going, and I do think she is not likely to go until Ozzy and Jim are out. If Ozzy wins the first immunity, which he absolutely needs to do (I think we all agree), then he would go the second time if Jim wins the likely mental challenge. Even if Jim went the next time, Sophie, Cochran, and Dawn all have a better shot at winning a mental challenge than Ozzy -- unless it is a trivia challenge on how to hunt and gather in Samoa.

btw, because the Upolu idol is still in the game, I don't expect another idol to be hidden, which is too bad for the Savai'i. It should go down the same as last season, where Zapatera hoped for another idol but it didn't happen.

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Gothmog 2885 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-11, 10:10 PM (EST)
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9. "Maxx is up"
Maxx's Episode 9 spoilers

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-06-11, 00:12 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Maxx is up"
Dammit.

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SquidProQuo 2281 desperate attention whore postings
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11-06-11, 02:49 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Maxx is up"
Ugh, that was my fear too, although I was holding out hope that Ozzy or Jim could win IC at least once this week. So that means the following week there are most likely 2 separate 1:1 duels and two of Jim/Ozzy/Keith will be out for good.

Just a side/personal comment, but I really liked Jim. Think he had potential to be a player...too bad the numbers weren't on his side.

P.S. I haven't been following Max -- what was he wrong about last week? Smaller details? So that's why he's only giving the bare facts now?

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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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11-06-11, 03:25 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Maxx is up"
He said there would not be a tie and revote; Keith would be voted out on the first vote. And someone said that he also posted in the comments that the Savaiis minus Cochran would vote for Albert, though I myself didn't see where he posted that.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-06-11, 06:11 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Maxx is up"
BR, Maxx posted a reply to his own spoiler article as an update:

Savaiiís plan was to make sure that Whitney was targeted. I have no idea how you get a tribe to vote out someone that is almost not there when it comes to challenges, but then again I am not a master strategist. That is the best case scenario since theyíll use the Hidden Immunity Idol to save her and all of their votes for Albert would send him home. The worst case is that Upolu does not target Whitney and they tie. Savaii is willing to go to the rocks. Well, almost all of Savaii is willing.

So I already told you that Cochran flips and Savaiiís plan fails. There is 1 vote, it is not a tie and Keith goes home. The option of choosing the rocks never happens, it is just something most of Savaii is willing to take a chance on. So 1 vote that sends Keith home.

As you see, he got it right that it never went to rock draw, that Whitney would get the HII played on her behalf, that Keith would be voted out, that Ozzy would win duel and return, that Cochran would flip and vote with Upolu.

Wrong that Savai'i voted for Albert and wrong that there was not an initial tie.

This seems to have made him leary of posting details that could be wrong, and personally I applaud his restraint, because I hate when that happens with someone whose spoilers have been right on the money.

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Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings
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11-06-11, 05:26 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Maxx is up"
Figured as much.


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