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"Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
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SurvivorFan101 17 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 01:53 PM (EST)
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"Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
MaxxFisher has posted his Episode 8 spoilers here:
http://www.tvfunspot.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13775
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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Estee 10-28-11 1
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-28-11 2
 RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers emydi 10-28-11 3
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-28-11 4
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Brownroach 10-28-11 5
       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-28-11 6
       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers emydi 10-28-11 7
           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-28-11 9
               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers emydi 10-28-11 10
                   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-28-11 11
               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Brownroach 10-28-11 15
           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Brownroach 10-28-11 12
               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-28-11 14
                   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Brownroach 10-28-11 16
                       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers emydi 10-29-11 35
                           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-29-11 36
                               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Gothmog 10-29-11 38
                                   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-29-11 39
                                       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Gothmog 10-29-11 40
                                           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers PepeLePew13 10-29-11 41
                                               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-29-11 42
                                                   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Gothmog 10-29-11 43
                                                   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers PepeLePew13 10-29-11 44
       What's Cochran thinking? Estee 10-28-11 8
           RE: What's Cochran thinking? kiki_k 10-28-11 13
           RE: What's Cochran thinking? Belle Book 10-28-11 20
 RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Gothmog 10-28-11 17
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Gothmog 10-28-11 18
       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Brownroach 10-30-11 51
           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Belle Book 10-30-11 53
               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers KObrien_fan 10-30-11 54
                   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Belle Book 10-31-11 55
                       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers dabo 10-31-11 56
                           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Belle Book 10-31-11 62
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-28-11 19
       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers OllieKat 10-28-11 21
           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-28-11 22
               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers OllieKat 10-28-11 23
                   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers kiki_k 10-29-11 24
                       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers OllieKat 10-29-11 25
                           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers PepeLePew13 10-29-11 30
       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Modesty 10-29-11 28
 Alright dabo 10-29-11 26
   RE: Alright tribephyl 10-29-11 27
       RE: Alright dabo 10-29-11 29
   RE: Alright PepeLePew13 10-29-11 31
   RE: Alright kiki_k 10-29-11 33
       RE: Alright dabo 10-29-11 45
       One other thing dabo 10-30-11 49
           RE: One other thing Brownroach 11-01-11 65
               RE: One other thing dabo 11-01-11 66
                   RE: One other thing Brownroach 11-01-11 67
   RE: Alright Belle Book 10-29-11 34
       RE: Alright dabo 10-29-11 37
           RE: Alright Brownroach 11-01-11 68
               RE: Alright dabo 11-01-11 70
 RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Outfrontgirl 10-29-11 32
 RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Flowerpower 10-30-11 46
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Krautboy 10-30-11 47
       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Flowerpower 10-30-11 48
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Belle Book 10-30-11 50
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Modesty 10-30-11 52
 RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers rachelOH63 10-31-11 57
   RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers dabo 10-31-11 58
       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Brownroach 10-31-11 59
           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers dabo 10-31-11 60
       RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Krautboy 10-31-11 61
           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers suzzee 11-01-11 63
               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Belle Book 11-01-11 64
           RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Outfrontgirl 11-01-11 69
               RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers Krautboy 11-02-11 72
 Clarification of Purple Rock Rule Brownroach 11-02-11 71
   RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Ru... Outfrontgirl 11-02-11 73
       RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Ru... Brownroach 11-03-11 74
           RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Ru... Outfrontgirl 11-03-11 75
               RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Ru... Brownroach 11-03-11 76
               RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Ru... dabo 11-03-11 77
                   RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Ru... Outfrontgirl 11-04-11 78

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Estee 55194 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 02:14 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
This is the first time I've read one of Fisher's posts -- I was just that curious about how production's Ozzy's little Kenobi Ploy was going to work out. And now...

I'd basically said that Cochran's game struck me as one of DAWdom desperation -- or in his case, desperation for the actual DAWdom. He wants to be known. He wants to be remembered. He doesn't care if his actions work out as long as you're talking about them. He not only mistook infamy for fame, he swapped the definitions in his personal dictionary. And now, seeing his chance...

There's an argument to be made for his just having wrapped up F3. Given the number of angry tribemates on his jury, wouldn't you want to bring him along? And he'll have his infamy, and his talk, and he'll be known by us, all right.

His million dollars? Yeah, right.

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 02:28 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Yep, the only comfort I can take from this is that no way in hell does this rat win.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 02:34 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
wow. Why does Ozzy give the HI to Whitney? I guess Upolu gives Cochrane wrong info as they should have? I was almost right in my guesses I just thought that Keith would play the HII.

Ozzy is not an actor...On EW Jiffy did say to Ozzy "Less is more."

But wow I mean what was Cochrane thinking? What was that dude's name from Russhole's first season (who voted for him to win it all) that did the same thing to break a tie to force the woman pastor out...next week he was gone...just like brandon in Africa

I guess this does make him the F3 goat and Estee is right.

Wow!

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 02:44 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Meh. I'm holding out hope that he isn't even a F3 goat & is out at F7. It doesn't jibe with Coach's "family/loyalty" philosophy to keep him beyond that.

There was talk from Maxx about Coach going all "bros before hos" & betraying Edna a few posts back. So *maybe* John outlasts her, but I don't see why Upolu would want a F3 of anyone but Upolu -- sure, John wouldn't get even 1 Savaii vote in a F3, but why even give anyone the option of voting for a Savaii in the first place? In an all Upolu F3, the former Savaii will have to choose one of them.

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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 04:28 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-11 AT 04:31 PM (EST)

About giving Whitney the idol, it's easy. Cochran is the double agent. Once he's sure he's siding with Upolu he can tell Ozzy that Upolu is voting Whitney because they are afraid of being idolled if they vote an alpha male. So Ozzy gives Whitney the idol to play. Then Cochran goes back to Upolu and tells them everything's set: vote for Keith.

What is Cochran thinking, indeed ???!

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 04:38 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
yep, that's how I see it. And what is John thinking? Everything I've said about that timid little sewer rat from the beginning-- he's not playing to win, he's playing to get 3 more days.

And, btw, this is ALL Keith, Jim, Whitney & Dawn's fault -- they started playing an "individual" game when they were still a TRIBE re: booting Elyse just to "weaken" Ozzy instead of John when he was, in fact, the right choice to go.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 04:39 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-11 AT 04:42 PM (EST)

so the whole tie vote is a ruse? why even do that? the Savs will know Cochroach flipped on them so why not just do it in the first vote? to give Cockroach an argument he wanted to avoid the purple rock? It still puts the Savs down nos. w/o a HII

Who does Savaii vote for the first time, Albert?

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 04:44 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-11 AT 04:45 PM (EST)

According to Maxx, yes, the Savaii's vote for Albert -- obviously again with their "double agent's" say so. But, whatever.

But there is no tie -- Keith is voted out 7-5. John *never* votes with Savaii.

The purple rock scenario is an EXCUSE because he was too effing chickenshit to even play the double agent part right.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 04:50 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I read his post wrong about the tie vote, my bad. Where does it say ALbert, in comments?
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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 04:55 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Sorry, yes, Maxx said in comments that Savaii vote for Albert.
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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 05:11 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-11 AT 05:16 PM (EST)

I agree with the last part -- Savaii likely has to depend on the purple rock strategy because Cochran didn't do his job. If he had, the exact reverse could be happening.

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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 04:58 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-11 AT 05:19 PM (EST)

Well Maxx doesn't say what Upolu's plans are.

But Savaii is wrong about one thing: I'm pretty sure it's been established that the rules say only the person with the challenge immunity is immune from the rock pick. Ergo Whitney wouldn't be. I wonder if Cochran knows that and that's why he doesn't like the odds.

It may also boil down to Cochran being as inept as a double agent as he is at everything else. If he's unable to get any useful info out of Upolu -- do they have an idol? If so, who has it? Etc. -- he may go into panic mode and decide it's easier to sell out Savaii instead.

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 05:09 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I'm pretty sure the 2 people who are tied to be voted out are immune too.

Have we even had a purple rock when a HII was played though? I'm not sure you are right about that one.

Nonetheless, IF John *knows* they have it wrong, why not TELL them that? SMH. He's completely inept & I'm LOL'ing at how some of his fans are going to see all this as "positive" for his edit to win. {rolls eyes}

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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 05:15 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Yes the tied parties are immune also.

I'm 99% sure about the other part because I was surprised to find it out.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 01:27 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
So do both tribes play HII in the 6-6 tie that Cockroach is afraid of? (in what really happens I'm sure no one from Up plays the HII bc Cockroach is their 7th vote)

So in the tie scenario if Say, Sophie, and Whitney use the HIIs but they vote for Keith and Albert if the HII holders also do not have to pick then its 7 people that have to pick the rock.

And if he's going to do this why doesn't Cockroach keep the dang HI Ozzy gave him. He may decide later after he can't get the info from Ups.

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 01:56 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
According to Maxx Upolu does not play the HII -- only Savaii does -- Ozzy gives it to Whitney to play (based, I'm guessing, on their thinking she's Upolu's target). Instead, Upolu target Keith. Maxx says the vote is 7-5, which makes me think John voted with Upolu to begin with, but he might have the number wrong & John panics and votes with Upolu on the re-vote & Keith is booted 6-4 (Keith & Albert -- Savaii's target -- don't vote on re-vote). Technically, you could count the Keith & Albert's non-votes as votes against each other & count it as 7-5. I'm not sure what Maxx's "7-5" means, though.

If a 2nd tie occurred on re-vote, it would be 8 people picking. Those not picking would be:
Keith
Albert
Ozzy (won IC) and
Whitney (HII).

The odds of picking the purple rock would be 1/7factorial (7x6x5x4x3x2x1) before the 1st person drew a rock.

IMO, John wasn't going to do this when he gives Ozzy back the HII. I think he probably panics when he realizes that if he fails at his role as double agent (i.e., Savaii doesn't use the HII on the real Upolu target) he will have to face purple rock & he chooses to vote with Upolu rather than take that 1/7factorial risk. Now, whether that decision comes prior to the first vote OR on re-vote when it is revealed that Keith, not Whitney, is the target, I have no idea.

But nonetheless, even if John was going to do this, he still would have given Ozzy his HII back -- (1) an HII burned is an HII burned and (2) am I expected to believe that a guy who was too scared to face a middle-aged woman on RI was NOT going to hand the HII meekly back over to Ozzy when asked?

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Gothmog 2885 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 03:44 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
If a 2nd tie occurred on re-vote, it would be 8 people picking. Those not picking would be:
Keith
Albert
Ozzy (won IC) and
Whitney (HII).

The odds of picking the purple rock would be 1/7factorial (7x6x5x4x3x2x1) before the 1st person drew a rock.

If there are 8 people picking, and one purple rock, the probability (not "odds") of any one of them getting the purple rock is 1 in 8. The "odds" are 7:1 against. There is no factorial in either case.

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 04:59 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 05:24 PM (EST)

You are right that I shouldn't have used the word "odds" but that doesn't change the fact that as each person picks the chance of picking the purple rock changes for the next person.

Only the first person to pick has a 1 in 8 chance of picking the purple rock. Your chances change depending on when you get to pick & what the person(s) before you picked. So there definitely is a factorial if you want to figure the risk of pulling the purple rock for everyone before anyone draws and that risk is 1 in 5,040 (7factorial) because that is how many different ways the 8 picks can go.

If 1st person picks not purple rock, the chances of the 2nd person picking purple rock is now different (2nd person now has a 1 in 7 chance of picking the purple rock), etc.

And "7:1 against" is irrelevant as, again, this is only for the first person to draw.

The reason the probability of drawing the purple rock out of 8 rocks is a 1/7factorial before anyone draws is because you don't count the purple rock in the picks because then it would be 8 draws 8 rocks, which takes into account the draw that picks the purple rock (i.e., if first person draws purple rock then the other 7 have 0% chance of drawing the purple rock; no need to count that draw). You can write it as 8/8factorial, but 8/8 is 1 & since the denominator is a factorial it is 1/1x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 or 1 in 5040.

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Gothmog 2885 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 05:49 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 05:50 PM (EST)

Ummmm, no.

You're viewing each rock as distinct. But 7 of the 8 rocks are the same, therefore the order of those doesn't matter.

Here's another way of putting it. If each person has a 1 in 5040 chance, then they total an 8 in 5040 (i.e. 1 in 630) chance of any one person getting a purple rock, which isn't correct, because there's a 1 in 1 chance of 1 person getting the rock. (Someone HAS to get the rock).

Or, to put it another way, there are only 8 possible combinations (you're thinking permutations, but they're combinations because the order of the non-purples doesn't matter) of outcomes:
Pxxxxxxx
xPxxxxxx
xxPxxxxx
xxxPxxxx
xxxxPxxx
xxxxxPxx
xxxxxxPx
xxxxxxxP

The probability, as you say, changes as each person draws, but not in the manner that you calculate--it gets more likely, not less, that you get a purple rock. But this is irrelevant, because they don't reveal until everyone has drawn, so everyone has the same probability of drawing a purple rock from the start.

Don't play Russian roulette with only 1 bullet in an eight-chamber revolver. You have a 1 in 8 chance of shooting yourself, not a 1 in 5040.

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 07:09 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Gothmog is 100% correct here. A college prof who teaches advanced algebra as one of his courses gotta stick up for another teacher who teaches an elite group of kids that work with numbers (long story).

If they were to draw and then reveal one at a time, then yes the configurations change for each person, but that's not how they do it. In reality, each of the eight people involved have an 1-in-8 (12.5%) chance of getting the purple rock because they each reveal their rocks at the exact same time, so the odds are the same for everyone at the time. 12.5 plus 12.5 plus 12.5 plus 12.5 plus 12.5 plus 12.5 plus 12.5 plus 12.5 equals 100 percent.

As Goth put it, 8 in 5040 wouldn't work because there are only eight rocks total to be drawn, there aren't 5040 rocks.

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 08:41 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 09:16 PM (EST)

If I'm misunderstanding how to apply conditional probability, that is fine, but everyone having a 1-8 chance of drawing the purple rock can only be true if everyone reaches in at the exact same time & draws at the exact same time. And that is basically only theoretical, as it cannot be accomplished & doesn't take into account other factors that are out of this scenario.

Not knowing the color of the rock until everyone draws -- I can't see how that matters -- the first person does draw some color & it effects the next person's chances regardless of whether the color is revealed or not.

Additionally, I do not see how you can disregard the order that each of the 8 *might* draw. That is a factor until it is known.

The number 5040 has nothing to do with the number of rocks -- it is the possible combinations of the order the 8 people draw & the possible ways the rocks are drawn.

eta: to take out something that might have been read as argumentative.

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Gothmog 2885 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 09:38 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-30-11 AT 01:21 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 09:59 PM (EST)


Let me try one more time. I'll give you the statistical formula. I'll even give you two different lay-person's explanations for it, to see if that will help. It might not convince you, but I'm hoping it will help anyone out there who's still confused, if such a person exists.

Here's the statistical formula for what we're looking for:
C = n!/{r!(n-r)!}
C is the number of possible combinations we're looking for, n is the total number of objects (in this case 8), and r is the number drawn from those objects (in this case 1). That's 8!/{1!(8-1)!} = 8!/7! = 8 possible combinations, the 8 that I diagrammed in post #40.

(Side note: to show you how this formula works, let's suppose that there were 2 purple rocks in the bag. Then the number of combinations would be 8!/{2!(8-2)!} = 56/2 = 28 combinations. Of those 28 combinations, exactly 7 would assign a purple to any one particular player (I won't draw that out here to save some space, but I can later if you don't see how this works), so the probability of 1 player out of 8 drawing a purple rock when there are 2 purple rocks in a bag of 8 rocks is 7 in 28, or 1 in 4.) Did you follow that?

Here's an explanation that relies less on formulas. I'll call it "Lay-person's explanation #1". Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the non-purple rocks really do matter. We'll number the rocks from 1-8, with 1 being the purple rock. Anyone who gets rock number 1 will be eliminated. With me so far? The 8 people who draw are labeled from A-H. There are 40,320 possible ways that the 8 rocks can be distributed. (8! = 40,320) And it doesn't matter whether they pick at the same time or one after the other; this is the TOTAL number of possible distributions of the rocks among the 8 players. Here's the beginning and ending of that distributional diagram (of all the possibilities of who might get which rock):

A B C D E F G H
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 8 7
1 2 3 4 5 7 6 8
1 2 3 4 5 7 8 6
1 2 3 4 5 8 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 8 7 6
1 2 3 4 6 5 7 8
. . . . . . . .
etc. etc. etc.
. . . . . . . .
8 7 6 5 4 3 1 2
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Obviously I don't have the space to write out all the possibilities here, but you can do it for yourself if you have the time and space. The number of possible permutations (not combinations because order matters, in this example, since we've numbered the rocks) here is 40,320. No more, no less: 40,320. Of those 40,320 permutations, exactly 5,040--no more, no less--have rock #1 going to person A. Exactly 5,040 have rock #1 going to person B. And to person C. And so forth to each person. Oddly enough, 5,040 out of 40,320 reduces to 1 in 8. Go figure. (Ha! I kill me.) In your previous calculation, only 8 out of those 40,320 permutations (1 in 5,040) gives the purple rock to one person, which is obviously not true.

Further, when you add the probabilities, they have to equal 1, because the rock HAS to end up in someone's hand (the probability of someone--anyone, not just a specific person--getting a purple rock is 1 in 1).

Lay person's explanation #2. The probability you are describing would only occur in the following scenario: Say all 8 people drew rocks, one of them being purple (a 1 in 8 chance, as explained above). After that drawing, you eliminate 1 person who didn't get the purple, put the rocks back in the bag after taking a non-purple out, then redraw. Lo and behold, the SAME PERSON got the purple rock! What are the odds, you say? "Well, the probability of that was 1 in 56!" I reply. (1 over 8x7). We eliminate another non-purple person and another rock, put the rocks back in the bag, then redraw. WHOA!!! THE SAME PERSON GOT THE PURPLE ROCK! How freaky! That was a 1 in 336 (1 over 8x7x6) chance! If we keep doing that (eliminating someone who didn't get purple, put the rocks back, then redraw), the probability of the same person getting the purple rock at EVERY DRAWING would be 1 in 5,040.

That's obviously not even close to the scenario they're facing, so that in itself should be a clue that you've been miscalculating.

Now, I wouldn't keep harping on this point if you didn't keep bringing it up, but you also tie it to the point that Cochran was stupidly taking a chance when it was so slight. Well there's a big difference between a 1 in 8 chance (which is what he was facing) and a 1 in 5,040 chance (which is what you've been arguing and much much more unlikely to occur). It still might be a stupid decision, but not at the level that you're arguing.


Edited to take the edge out of my response, because you took out the nastiness in your post, which then made my post look particularly nasty in response. I guess that's how we're playing this game, eh?

Edited further to correct typos and to add a clarification to the explanation.

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10-29-11, 09:44 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 09:49 PM (EST)

Edited because I didn't see Goth's reply in post 43 at the time I was writing. The outline I alluded to in the first paragraph below applies to post 40.


There's no other possible combinations other than the one Goth outlined. PxxXxxxx is the same as PxxxxxXx so it's pointless to count each combination twice since the fourth rock (in the first scenario) is the same colour as the seventh rock (in the second scenario).

The factorial would be used if each person was to draw from a bag of eight rocks until they got a purple rock each. Lottery odds are much longer because 49 numbers (as in the case of our national lottery) are rolled to get any one number, then 48 numbers rolled to get any second number, etc. until six numbers have been drawn. In this case, only 8 rocks are used and each of the rocks are picked once at the same time instead of being "re-rolled" so-to-speak. Each of the 8 will be holding out a hand with a rock in it, and they all reveal at the same time -- only one of these eight will have a purple rock, and this is where we calculate the 1-in-8 odds instead of the 1-in-5040 or 8-in-5040 whatever.

Here's the simple and most visual concept of calculating the odds:

When the eight people are standing on a mat in front of Jeff Probst, we're not worrying about possible combinations, just that one of these eight will have a purple rock. The colour of the other seven does not matter.

The 5040 combinations factorial would apply if you were trying to sort out 1st to 8th or figure out who gets one of 8 different colours in some order.

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10-28-11, 04:42 PM (EST)
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8. "What's Cochran thinking?"

Easiest question you've ever asked.

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10-28-11, 05:05 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: What's Cochran thinking?"
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-11 AT 05:31 PM (EST)

What makes me spitting mad about this is that basically his tribe just saved his butt from going to RI where they all KNEW he would lose to a middle aged woman out there in order to preserve their numbers at merge & risked their strongest player to do it & THIS is how he repays them all? This is worst than the Penner & Fincher combined & he is officially the worst player to ever play this game, IMO.

Does he really think that his life was "on the line?" He claims to be a student of the game, but does he not realize his tribe wasn't going to vote him out until AT LEAST Albert, Coach & Rick were gone from Upolu? All he had to do was wait. He is honestly the WEAKEST player to EVER play Survivor in the past 23 seasons of this show -- does he NOT see that he wasn't going anywhere soon once merge happened?

The WORST part is he goes around calling Ozzy (and the middle aged woman on RI whom he is too scared to actually face) "b!tch" when he's the one who is too scared to take even the SMALLEST risk out there. That ain't no "winner." Hell, it isn't even "best villain" -- this move makes him the biggest dumb@ss in Survivor history.

And the absolute WORST part of it all is that Ozzy's move --while crazy -- actually PAID OFF!! It works & John just screws it all up from pure cowardice and ineptitude. No wonder he is so resentful of Ozzy --he is 100% jealous of him.

I swear to God, I'll even take a Coach win over John at this point. I don't want John anywhere near a F3.

eta: the hell with a Coach win too. I want Ozzy to come back from RI AGAIN & win the whole thing.

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Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 07:33 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: What's Cochran thinking?"
You probably have it right there -- he's only thinking of himself. Although in the end, everyone should think of themselves, they shouldn't do it as obviously as Cochran seems to have done. Which reminds me, if your character Alex was in Cochran's shoes and had to play the role of the double agent, she wouldn't be that strategically inept!


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10-28-11, 06:16 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Just throwing this out there. Don't know if it's wishful thinking or Maxx's reference to tricks & treats.

But. Is there a possibility that Maxx might be playing us? Do the other clues (editing, esp.) support that this will indeed happen? Or are we accepting this as gospel based on Maxx's track record and not bothering to confirm it or look at other possibilities?

Again, it might be wishful thinking, but something bothers me as not quite right about this scenario. I'm trying to put my finger on it.

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10-28-11, 06:41 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Upon further review, I think I’ve found the finger.

I’m bothered by two things, the boot choice, and the threat of the pink rock.

Here's what Maxx says:
Cochran does not like these odds. He seems to be playing a series of 3 day games, playing from one immunity to the next.

So Cochran flips allegedly because he’s worried about the odds of pink rock. Well, he has no need to worry, does he? If he’s “in” with Upolo, he knows where their vote is going, and Savaii has the idol to play. Upolo tells Cochran the vote is for Keith, they give the idol to Keith, and no worries about any rock. Further, Cochran not only buys himself 3 more days but another week, as the Pagonging has begun. He’s not a challenge threat, so he’s no longer in danger of being voted out as a challenge liability. He’s got friends and they trust him, since he gave the idol back. Why wouldn’t his tribe keep him around longer? The “flipping to avoid a pink rock and buy 3 more days” theory just doesn’t ring true.

Esp. when the target is Keith. That’s almost too obvious. If Ozzy wins immunity, naturally the target would be Keith, the next biggest challenge threat. If the vote was 7-5, then Upolo must have told Cochran the target would be Keith. Do they actually trust Cochran, someone who allegedly is playing both sides, and follow through on this obvious plan? If they think Ozzy is overacting, they must suspect that Savaii still has an idol, in which case they should be wary about it being played against them and the vote wouldn’t be 7-5.

I guess what it boils down to: either Upolo trusts Cochran or not. I find it hard to believe that they trust him enough to tell him they’re all going to vote for the obvious Keith without worrying about an idol bounce. If they don’t trust him, the vote wouldn’t be 7-5, it would be 6-5-1. In either case, I have trouble believing Cochran finds this is his best play, being a clear #7 in a 6-person alliance, someone who has no better shot than to be a F3 goat (if that).

This makes me suspect whether something (whether intentional or not) might be misleading about the info we’re being fed.

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10-30-11, 04:49 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
LAST EDITED ON 10-30-11 AT 04:56 PM (EST)

Upolu's hii may be a factor. If Cochran isn't certain whether or not Upolu plans to play an hii (or if they even have one), it might make him nervous, since if the correct person from each tribe plays an hii, that would bring Savaii's tie vote/purple rock scenario to bear.

If he knew that e.g. Albert was going to play the hii he could redirect Savaii's vote accordingly so that the tie is avoided. If he doesn't know for sure, it's a crapshoot.

ETA: If Upolu is smart and has any suspicions about Cochran, they won't tell him anything about the hii. That will better ensure that he does flip.

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10-30-11, 08:22 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
They probably do have suspicions about Cochran. That might be why he actually flips -- if they don't tell him about the HII or if he figures it out but isn't told who will play it, he might panic and decide to flip and make sure he's not the one going to Redemption Island. As Jonathan from Cook Islands would say, it's better to be hated for flipping and make sure you're on the right side of the votes than to be popular and go home early.


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10-30-11, 08:54 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I think that is exactly right Belle. Everybody has something that is important to them. Cochran knows that if he is to win the game he must first stay in the game. He knows the answer for him is not to go to redemption island, he knows he isn't a challenge hound.

In the end there can be only one winner.

When faced with a 1 in 8 shot of drawing a purple rock and in drawing the rock he is guaranteed to leave the game, Cochran chooses to go with Upolu and hopefully improve his chances by guaranteeing that he will stay in the game.

I agree with Dabo in that Cochran will recognize that he will need to gather the lowest on the totem pole at each tribe at some point in order to oust the power players on both sides. I don't know that we are in for a straight pagonging here.

Savaii and Ozzy did not exactly make Cochran feel at home. Ozzy barely even spoke to Cochran, and only decided to talk strategy when it was down to 6 vs 6. Ozzy didn't go to RI to save Cochran. Ozzy went to RI so that he could save Savaii to get the numbers at the merge against Upolu, start pagonging them, and then ditch Cochran at the first chance he could.

Cochran, despite what you all may think, is not stupid. He knows Ozzy isn't sacrificing himself just for Cochran. So Cochran has to do what he has to do to watch out for himself, 'cause one thing he knows about Survivor is, only one person can win.

Whether or not Cochran can win if he turns his back on his tribe at merge is a whole 'nother thing. I will have to see how it all plays out starting Wednesday.


I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

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Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings
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10-31-11, 11:40 AM (EST)
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55. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Yeah, his only chance is to gather the lowest on the totem pole at each tribe at some point in order to oust the power players on both sides. Of course, the success of that plan depends on whether Whitney and Dawn (the two lowest on Savaii) aren't too blinded by anger to realize that they don't have much choice. A-dum-dum (my nickname for Adam) and Parvati were too blinded by their anger at Jonathan to give him much chance of getting back with him, so the same might apply to Dawn and Whitney. Edna might go for it, but not if Rick doesn't.


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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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10-31-11, 11:52 AM (EST)
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56. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Jim might go for it, he already experienced lowest on the pole in the 90210 alliance and still needs to improve his chances. For Dawn it is a big step up in her game. I do think Edna would see the advantage of it, though she would need Rick to jump in with her. They need a third Upolu, know it can't be Coach and it can't be Brandon as long as Coach is in the game holding the HII (and Brandon is a loose cannon, of course). They should actually form a sub-secret alliance with Albert and Sophie, pretend to bring Sophie in, let Coach and a couple of Savaii get eliminated (Ozzy is gone the moment he doesn't win II), and then the four of them take control of the game from the Secret Alliance. Edna might be that smart, Rick is too much of an unknown still.

It could actually be an interesting game for awhile, a wild mid-game anyway. Too much to hope for?

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Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings
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10-31-11, 08:43 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I forgot that Jim might be lower than Whitney. And yeah, he'll go for it. Edna will go for the first secret alliance and quite likely go for the sub-secret alliance with Albert & Sophie bit, but she needs two things to happen there:

1. She needs Rick with her,
2. She needs Albert & Sophie to be willing to join forces with her & Rick. And they voted against her.

I hope it happens, but I'm not sure it will happen!


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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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10-28-11, 06:41 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Anything is possible, but Maxx has been very reliable & straightforward. Don't know why he'd want to start messing with us now.

And the fact is, this fits what John has shown us about himself despite what those who think he has a "winning" edit say -- he stated day one when he demanded to be called Cochran (which is why I refuse to do it) that he wanted to be "known" -- not win -- "known." And he's been playing for 3 more days ONLY never, ever to win. All we've EVER heard from him is what he can't do -- I can't go in the water, I can't dive, I can't be in the sun, I can't go to RI & duel a middle aged "b!tch" (his word choice), I can't, I can't, I can't.

He can't play an effective double agent either, so to buy himself 3 more days (again, his M.O.), he flips for real. That's definitely going to get him "noticed" but he can't be loyal & he definitely can't win either.

Student of the game, my foot. He was almost assuredly F3 with Jim, Keith, Ozzy and Dawn (and probably Whitney too) if he'd stayed loyal to Savai'i especially after they ALL decided to spare him a pre-jury exit (and he surely would have lost the RI duel to Christine -- he told us that himself). Now, I seriously doubt he makes it past F6. He's doing the Fincher "they wanted me out so to hell with them" thinking that only someone who doesn't understand Survivor at all would think -- the same reasons for wanting him gone pre-merge are the exact reasons to keep him post-merge. If he had stayed loyal, he could have pulled the "I've grown out here" card and gotten some votes at F3, if not the win itself.

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10-28-11, 10:11 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Just when I thought there was no way I could dislike this weasel any more! I agree though that with this move there's no way he can win and that it'll be funny to see "John wins!" supporters try to put a positive spin on his backstab.
What really irks me is that TPTB have been trying to make us see John as a lovable loser underdog you want to root for all season and they've basically shoving him down our throats as this season's Fan Favorite. I'm sure Jeff will gush over this and try to convince people that this makes John a Survivor genius. My prediction is that the weasel will be given Fan Favorite - and yes, I'm specifically using "given" because I think it's his regardless of the actual vote count.
Oh well I have a feeling it will be entertaining to see him get ripped apart at FTC if he makes it (and I'm guessing he will 'cause he's an excellent goat). Maybe it'll make Survivor history and we'll see a player literally pee in his pants
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10-28-11, 11:07 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Jeff is already touting it as some genius move (instead of a chickensh!t move, which it is -- he can't risk a 6-6 tied voted with the purple rock -- which, btw, Jim, professional poker player is -- so he just flips to buy 3 more days-- this is his *only* thought process behind this, not some great "scheme" no matter what the editors try to tell us).

CBS & Jeff can keep shoving him down our throats all they want, but he will go down as the biggest TRAITOR in Survivor history along with Candance -- remember her stepping off the Aitu mat? Yeah, he's going to be hated worse than her. He's also got biggest dumb@ss in the bag. Hey, at least he will be "known."

They'd have to *give* him FF because my Focus Group already hates his guts & when I asked about the possibility of him betraying Savaii/Ozzy, they almost had a fit. No way he recovers any kind of average viewer "fan base" after this.

I honestly can't see him getting beyond F5 this way (and he would have had F3 with any Savaii if he had taken the purple rock risk & a Upolu was booted) -- he *might* be used by Coach to get out some Upolus after the other 5 Savaii are gone, but no further than F6/F5. I bet not only because he will remind Coach of Stephen (who Coach was burned about long after Tocantins ended), it would go against all of Coach's loyalty/warrior/survival of the fittest not weakest b.s. that's he's been spewing for 3 seasons. And even Coach can't be so greedy as to want 2 goats (he already has 1 in Brandon), can he?

If the spoilers are true, I'm calling a Coach win now. He had the best Episode 1 edit & word on the street is he came back all happy, setting up fan pages, etc. {shrug} Better than Cochroach (that's what I'm calling him now, because that is what he is, pass it on).

I'm holding out hope that Ozzy comes back from RI a second time & wins his way to F3, but it isn't looking good.

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10-28-11, 11:42 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Kiki, do you think you could videotape the "focus group" watching next week? That might be more entertaining than the ep itself!

I hope you're right about the 'roach getting no further than F5 - I don't want him rewarded with a F3 even though he'd get no votes. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to watch the reunion 'cause you know he's going to be a focus.

Coach being greedy? Oh heck yeah, he'd love to have two goats.

I'm still going to hold out hope that since Maxx said "screwed" versus "dead" (or something similar) there's a .05% chance Jim pulls this out. Otherwise I'm going to hope for a Sophie or Albert win even though their edits say "no way they win".

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10-29-11, 00:10 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Yeah, there is hope in the word "scr@wed" but Maxx also wrote (after revealing Keith's boot) that:

You don‘t have to be a mathemagician to see how that is going to work out for Ozzy, Dawn, Whitney & Jim

He could be giving us the next 4 boots, in order, right there.

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10-29-11, 00:27 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
"You don‘t have to be a mathemagician to see how that is going to work out for Ozzy, Dawn, Whitney & Jim

He could be giving us the next 4 boots, in order, right there."


Yeah, I agree but I'm just trying to be a big ole optimist 'cause I'm not finding myself fond of any of the U's left except maybe Sophie and Al.

One thing I'm holding onto hope about in Maxx's quote is the fact that, so far, he's been adamant about spoiling only week to week so it'd be out of character for him to give us the next four boots.

I know it's a stretch but a girl can hope can't she?

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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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10-29-11, 08:16 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I read somewhere that it's been "confirmed" (whatever that means, take it for what it's worth) that Keith and Ozzy are the next two to go. I was looking at comments about the Funny 115 and someone said "these two are the next two go" and immediately a couple other people started shouting that a spoiler had been revealed, don't read if you don't want to know more.
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10-29-11, 02:34 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
For what it's worth guys (and it's probably not much) Maxx hates Cochran too. I may be falling into the trap that everyone is with reading too much into his 'opinions' - but I know for sure that he does. Maxx has offered no opinion on whether he's happy with the outcome of the season or not which is why I say his hating Cochran tells us nothing.
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10-29-11, 01:33 AM (EST)
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26. "Alright"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 01:34 AM (EST)

I've read this entire thread and other stuff, like what Maxx actually said (and crud, I'm gonna have a hard time thinking of bonus questions this week: and note to self, score ep7 whydoncha, it needs to be done). The chickens absolutely have not shown up since they were the reward, weird season

Let's assume Cochran is not making a stupid traitor no way he can win the game now move this week, that he actually has a good plan. What would that be?

A cross-tribal alliance.

Some people, no matter what tribe they are on, are reliably (what a relief) no longer targets once they reach the merge, when individual challenge threat becomes a liability and strong challenge threats without II become targets. An alliance of non-threats, what a concept!

Cochran is in position now to try to create a cross-tribal alliance, move secret agent to double agent to triple agent. Himself, Dawn, and probably Jim from Savaii, with initially Edna and Rick and ? from Upolu, at least initially.

He has to gather solid info from Upolu players, of course, in order to put it in play, but let's assume that is the idea. And neutralizing the HII's, both of them, is instrumental in making it work. Getting Ozzy to waste his HII is the first move, blindsiding Coach with his HII is the second or third move.

Seriously, what Survivor fan/player wants to end up below NaOnka and Chet on the fave lists?

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10-29-11, 02:25 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Alright"
I'm gonna have a hard time thinking of bonus questions this week: and note to self, score ep7 whydoncha, it needs to be done
The whole reason I started the GOTS (early even) was so that you wouldn't have to worry about creating a game out of the Vote Thread.
That and I already counted Ep.7 points and have added them into the GOTS.
Hope you're not mad, but my whole intention was to get the Vote Thread back to normal and to also ease your need for coming up with bonus questions.
However, if you still wanna host a game, I'm more than willing to pass along the GOTS to you.
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10-29-11, 03:28 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Alright"
No mad, and not interested in hosting a game, you are welcomce to it. I'm gonna pass on GOTS, simply because I have other concerns and don't have the time or energy. KB threw the scoring game in my lap and, darnit, trying to come up with unspoiled bonus questions is damn hard.
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10-29-11, 08:19 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Alright"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 11:06 AM (EST)

That's what I believe as well.

Come on, let's focus on spoiling instead of being fanboys/fangirls... If you look at things without bias, I see Cochran as doing whatever it takes to keep himself in the game longer - isn't the objective to "outplay, outwit, outlast"?

Edited to tone down my frustration over how some posts are focused solely on their hatred for certain contestants and how it influence their ability to spoil the show without bias.

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10-29-11, 12:06 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Alright"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 01:05 PM (EST)

Contrary to what some might believe, my alleged "hatred" for Cochroach isn't causing bias on my part. In fact, I'm only being perceived as "hating" him because I see him with clear eyes instead of trying to give him attributes he has shown he does not have.

What basis, other than wishful thinking, can we justify this move as some well thought out strategic play from someone we have been shown, time and time again, as panicky, inept and without the "physically and emotional ability" to make such moves? This is a guy who was too scared to face a middle-aged woman on RI and a guy who can't take a 1/7factorial risk of drawing the purple rock. Now he becomes some risk-taker, throwing away all ties with Savaii (and 5 jury votes) on some hope of a cross-tribal alliance?

If you have evidence that he can take this risk from his edit, fine. But I can't see it based on what we know of him. That isn't "hatred" of the kid. That is what I see of him & how he is playing this game.

eta: thinking about it some, I want to make clear: I'm not saying a cross-tribal alliance couldn't happen, but *if* it does & *if* John is used as a vote in it, it will not be a result of his "savvy/risk-taking game play." He will luck into it (*maybe* Albert & Sophie see a chance to take out Coach?) just like he lucked into Jim playing an individual game Day 1 & choosing to "weaken" Ozzy with the Semhar & Elyse boots rather than worry about merging with numbers against Upolu and just like he lucked into Savaii thinking he'd stay loyal to them at merge thereby sending Ozzy to RI in his place.

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10-29-11, 11:01 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Alright"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 11:53 PM (EST)

I'm not saying I have any proof of it, as I said above it is based on an assumption that Cochran is not making a stupid move.

Secret Agent play: Well, it might work, it really shouldn't, but Cochran's been given that mission so that is what he has to do. Since he is forced to take action and play the game, he does. There is no risk in the secret agent play, the worst case scenario is simply that it just doesn't work. This is what the Cochran you see would do, no more and no less.

Double Agent play: Cochran defects to Upolu. Not risky, it is basically game suicide; even if he gets to Final Tribal he won't win. But this play doesn't get him to Final Tribal, it moves him from #6 in Savaii to #7 in Upolu, he gets less time in the game. In fact his usefullness to Upolu is done after one vote, they could decide to end his game with the next boot. The only reason to do it, other than revenge, is if it is a ploy in a greater scheme.

Triple Agent play: Build a cross-tribal alliance to take control of the game. Cochran has Jim and Dawn to help him think it up and try to make it happen, and Jim may be the one to come up with it. So Cochran has support in this play, he's not taking the risk alone. If it works the worst case scenario is Cochran himself ends up #6 in the Secret Alliance, exactly the same spot he had in Savaii.

Why try to get the "weak" players to form this cross-tribal alliance? This is extended speculation at this point. But the "weak" players have done well to make it to the merge, the pressure is off, now they have to consider how they can get to Final Tribal and possibly win. None of them have been considered possible winners within their tribes, they are simply useful to the power players, expendable when the time comes. A cross-tribal power alliance improves all of their chances because it puts them in control of the game.

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10-30-11, 02:54 PM (EST)
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49. "One other thing"
I think I've now pinpointed what it is about Maxx's post that doesn't make sense to me. Anything can happen in Survivor, of course, but Maxx explicitely has it as a 7-5 vote without a revote. Maxx then has his own perhaps speculative elaborate explanation of that vote. In the fear of the rock explanation Cochran's best option in the first vote is to vote for some Upolu other than Albert, that is all he needs to do to avoid the rock.

How does Cochran know to vote for Keith?

The one aspect of the Secret Agent play that might work is getting Upolu to waste their HII. They might do that anyway without the play. It doesn't happen. For the Double Agent play it is irrelevant whether they play it, for the Triple Agent play making certain Upolu doesn't play their HII yet is important because if they play it that simply insures that another HII goes into hiding at camp. To make the Triple Agent play he blows the Secret Agent play to appear as a Double Agent to Upolu.

Upolu shouldn't entirely trust him, though, and simply use him to send disinformation to Savaii, which they do since Ozzy covers Whitney with the HII, Cochran knows Whitney is safe before the vote.

So, how does Cochran know to vote for Keith? In the Secret Agent and Double Agent plays he shouldn't know that. The Triple Agent play is the only play that gets him solid information.

Granted, it is my own elaboration, but I think Maxx is elaborating on the rock fear.

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11-01-11, 06:14 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: One other thing"
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-11 AT 06:15 PM (EST)

Dabo, Max has since said here on Sucks that he doesn't know if it's a 7-5 vote or a 6-5-1 vote. He does know that there is only one round of voting and that Keith goes home.

So it's entirely possible that Upolu does not confirm to Cochran who they are voting for, to prevent him from being able to go back and rearrange things with Savaii, and that Cochran doesn't vote for Keith.

And Savaii doesn't know if Upolu has an idol or if they plan to play it and I'm guessing Cochran won't know either. That is where fear of the rock comes in -- supposed both tribes play the idol on the correct person?

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11-01-11, 06:27 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: One other thing"
So http://www.tvfunspot.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13775
The episode ends with a vote of 5 to 7, but who goes to Redemption Island?
is a MaxxFactor cosmetic nuthin.

Someone please tell this bozo to quit making things up.

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11-01-11, 07:36 PM (EST)
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67. "RE: One other thing"
Yes I know -- there are Chill1-esque aspects creeping into his posts. At least Maxx does concede when it's pointed out where there's room for doubt, unlike the Chill1.
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10-29-11, 12:43 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Alright"
Possible. He might be thinking along those lines. But that's assuming that he's got a plan and hasn't just chickened out. We'll have to wait and see on that idea. At least such an idea might help Edna.


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10-29-11, 02:32 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Alright"
LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 02:32 PM (EST)

Yes. The Upolu could well just string Cochran along until it's time to "blindside" Coach, for the moment it only matters how it plays in the upcoming episode.

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11-01-11, 07:47 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: Alright"
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-11 AT 07:58 PM (EST)

What would be really funny is, if Upolu feels 100% confident this week that Cochran has abandoned Savaii and set them up to burn their hii, they tell Cochran to vote for Keith, and then the six of them vote for Cochran. They use Cochran to get them the numerical advantage while simultaneously disposing of him.

I guess we can't look forward to that.

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11-01-11, 09:58 PM (EST)
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70. "RE: Alright"
Well, he'd be safe from the rock that way.
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10-29-11, 08:32 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Funny, I wrote before the spoiler came out that John wouldn't want to be another Brandon Quinton, John Fincher, or even Jonathan Penner. Wrong wrong!

I did correctly guess that the Savai'i targeted would be Keith and not Jim, if John were to go after a Savai'i.
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7765.shtml#22

If it had come to a tie, the person with immunity and whoever played the idol would be immune from getting votes. Then the people who got votes would be immune after the deadlock second vote. So the other eight players would draw a rock.

What the idol can't do is you can't play it before the revote if you failed to play it the first time around.

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10-30-11, 08:12 AM (EST)
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46. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"

Well, if Cochran throws his entire tribe under the bus, and the Upolu's are going to keep moving forward with the one big happy family unit, then this is likely to spell the demise of Savaii. Most likely Ozzy will go as soon as he doesn't win immunity, as he'll be their number one target. So, in my mind, it could be the order that Maxx notes...Ozzy, Dawn, Whitney, and Jim. Jim would be last because he either wins the IN, or Cochran liked him the best because he spared him twice. I don't know.

What will happen when they are gone?

There seems to be a core alliance of Coach, Sophie, and Albert. But, Max gave us a hint that Coach will get rid of the women before the men....he has always wanted it to be a game where the warriors make it to the end....Will Cochran be the first of the remaining seven? How could he possibly survive to the finals, as so many predict? If loyalty is a theme, he'll never make it.

Will Coach cut Edna and Sophie first? If these things happen, Cochroach is cut lose, and the girls are eliminated, than that leaves the final 5 as: Coach, Albert, Brandon, Rick, and the RI returnee. Clearly, the RI returning player must win every challenge to make it within this group. Let's assume that the RI player does indeed survive, most likely Rick would be the next logical choice? Coach in final 4 with all warriors? I don't know, but it seems that it will not likely be a straight predictable elimination as it was in Redemption Island. Does Cochran stand a chance of cracking into the loyal family?

Let's look at the jury. Will it be a jury of 9 with the final 3, as it was with Redemption Island? If so, the first jury member will be the boot or duel losers after episode 9. If that is the case, the entire Savaii tribe could sit on the jury....the jury is likely to be comprised of at least 5 Savaii, and at least 3 Upolu.

All food for thought....will they take the path that Boston Rob did? Is there hope for any on Savaii?

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10-30-11, 09:50 AM (EST)
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47. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Excellent reasoning as always FloPo! Your summary makes perfect sense...but it does sound like things will be fairly predictable if the Upolu stay loyal to each other.

I don't thing Maxx intended to give us a Savaii boot order, just a suggestion that they might be Pagonged. If Keith goes first, it's an indication that the Upolu will try to eliminate the challenge treats first, so my guess is they would gor for Ozzy and Jim next, followed by Whitney and Dawn after that and finish off the traitor/goat before the Upolu are forced to start voting off their own...


Krautboy

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10-30-11, 10:36 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I don't know KB, I am still thinking out loud, so to speak. I am trying to fit the clues with how the season is unfolding. Remember Maxx did say that the people that are getting the airtime are the end game players....who is/was getting the airtime, arguably most of the air time...Cochran. It seems to me that he could indeed out last some Upolu's? I don't know.

Yes, I would suspect that the Upolu's would want to take care of the threats to win immunity first. I just don't know. While this is quite a surprising merge period, it would be a terribly predictable post merge pagonging. With the game going like it is, I would suspect there to be some kind of mix ups in the future....still finding the direction of the game to be disturbing...the one hope would be for the RI returnee to force some unexpected boots, I suppose....



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10-30-11, 04:30 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I think the best hope is for Cochran. There may be some hope for your beloved Ozzy, but I don't see much there. And I'm still holding out hope for Edna.


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10-30-11, 07:04 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Just in case you didn't catch this confirmation by Maxx in what is now a complete trainwreck of a 23 page thread, the Savaii could indeed be pagonged in such a way, but it would be purely coincidental. I'll quote him:

"I was speaking from the perspective of this specific episode. What anyone would think or assume at the conclusion of episode 8. The Savaii names I listed are not a hint of who goes home or in what order they leave. When I kept calling Christine "Matt" I was talking about how well she had done at Redemption Island up to that point, I was not hinting at her coming back from RI. It's the same thing with what I said about Savaii "

We're all such conspiracy theorists (guilty as charged here) we'll see spoilers in his recipe for spicy pumpkin cupcakes next. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, I'm just saying Maxx didn't spoil it.

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10-31-11, 01:37 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Could I get that recipe for spicy pumpkin cupcakes, please?? ;) ;)

Just wanted to say, I've not kept up on the spoilers too much...trying to just watch the show....but had read Brandon was F5, and I think I read Coach's team was victorious....
Then, after last week's show, I had GREAT hope that this whole plan of Ozzy's would come to fruition. How great that would be!

Couldn't wait for this next episode so spoilers here I come! And now, deep depression! I guess we'll have to see what happens to John to see why he does what he does....

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10-31-11, 02:21 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
The Brandon medical evacuation at F5 "spoiler" is specious, a hoax of some sort.
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10-31-11, 03:38 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I also don't believe there was any spoiler that Coach's team is victorious. Some people may have guessed that based on the Brandon in F5 info.
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10-31-11, 07:12 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I thought that initially, but the more I looked at it the more it seemed an overplayed hoax. Brandon out at one of the two F5s could come true but that would be entirely a coincidence, IMO.
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10-31-11, 07:53 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
The Brandon Medivac at F5 spoiler appears to have morphed out of the original spoiler from Danni at SSkills very early on. Since then it appears to have been confirmed by others with a good spoiling record.

My understanding of the spoiler is that something happens at F5 to cause Brandon to have another meltdown, at which point he wants to quit the game. The rumor was that the producers considered a fake Medivac to cover-up Brandon's quit.

The most recent spoiler from SU states that he is talked into sticking around until the TC where he is voted out, basically at his request.

Perhaps Brandon promises Edna his loyalty, but when Coach betrays her/him, he freaks out...or perhaps he comes to the realization that Coach will not take him to the end and that betrayal causes him to give up...

Regardless of the reason for Brandon's actions, there appears to be enough confirmation from different sources to conclude that something does happen to cause Brandon to leave the game at F5.it does happen. How the editors present it to the viewing audience will be interesting to watch. They will probably hide alot of it just like they did with the Sash/Jane incident.


Krautboy

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11-01-11, 01:46 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
If Brandon finds out that Coach had the HII way before Coach and Sophie "found" it I see him going completely bonkers. Once again his bad choice (Coach as an ally) ends up badly, he's mentally on thin ice anyway. Ultimate meltdown ensues.


A Tribe masterpiece


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11-01-11, 04:41 PM (EST)
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64. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
I sure could see Brandon go bonkers if he finds out that Coach found the HII long before Coach and Sophie "found" it as well, thus ensuring that he gives up -- as long as Edna outlasts him.


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11-01-11, 08:39 PM (EST)
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69. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Shouldn't this latest spec on sourced spoilers be in the other topic? I'm confused whether to keep adding to the Ep 8 topic or to the other one.

The indications now are that Brandon is not a returnee, and goes out at F5 or F6 in meltdown mode. So similar to Grant in position. He would go to RI and then lose the last "duel" or he would have to quit. So it doesn't make sense that he only needs to get to TC to be voted out. At F5, his game wouldn't be over. Unless he makes it to the second F5, possible as part of 4 Upolu left standing and one returnee. Then he would not go to RI.

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11-02-11, 01:05 PM (EST)
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72. "RE: Episode 8 Sourced Spoilers"
Pretty sure it's the second F5 when he wants to quit and is voted out, in which case he would go directly to the jury without having to deal with RI.


Krautboy

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11-02-11, 12:03 PM (EST)
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71. "Clarification of Purple Rock Rule"
-- since it was discussed above. I knew the rule was posted in these forum somewhere, and I found it here, courtesy of dabo and squidproquo.

"If there is a tie between Contestants, then a second vote may be conducted in which all non-eliminated Contestants at the Tribal Council (other than the tied Contestants) must vote to eliminate one of such tied Contestant. This voting process may continue until one and only one Contestant is chosen for elimination. If, however, there is a deadlock in the voting as determined by the Producer in its sole discretion, then the following shall occur: (a) the Contestants who are tied with the same number of votes for elimination are separated from the other Contestants; and number of votes for elimination are separated from the other Contestants; and (b) the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants at the Tribal Council have two minutes to discuss and decide, in an open forum, which of the tied Contestants should be eliminated. If a decision is reached by the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants, the Contestant whom they have chosen for elimination is eliminated. On the other hand, if, after the two minute discussion, the remaining non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants have not reached a decision as to which one of the tied Contestants should be eliminated, the following shall occur (subject to the clarification set forth below): the tied Contestants are now deemed to be immune from elimination at this Tribal Council, and the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants (with the sole exclusion of any remaining, non-tied, Contestant who has previously been granted immunity for this Tribal Council as a result of winning a Challenge) must choose a rock from a bag without looking inside of the bag. The Contestant who selects the differently colored rock is eliminated."

So someone who played an hii in the first round of voting is not automatically excluded from picking a purple rock (they would only be if they are one of the tied contestants).

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11-02-11, 04:02 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Rule"
I think that is an older version of the contract that didn't include HII. If you play the HII at a TC, you are safe that night. If that weren't so, someone would have used a tie to neutralize the idol by now. You are also safe if someone gave you individual immunity.

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11-03-11, 12:02 PM (EST)
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74. "RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Rule"
This was posted two years ago, when the hii already existed, but I don't know where it was pulled from.

The inclusion of who has previously been granted immunity...as a result of winning a Challenge seems to take into consideration that one could have immunity for some other reason than winning a challenge, and that immunity wouldn't count for the rock drawing.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-11, 06:49 PM (EST)
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75. "RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Rule"
BR, I saw a copy that dated back to the Marquesas, pre-HI, and it looked exactly the same.

Last night, as an idol was played, I think Jeff would have warned them before the second deadlock if there was any situation where Whitney would have been vulnerable. Also, at TC, the Savai'i talked openly of making their odds better on the rock draw with three people immune, and Jeff did not contradict them. The players are all shown the tie-breaker clause before they enter the game.

The fact they were confident about playing the idol tells us, I think, that an idol counts the same as immunity in case of a tie.

Also, can you imagine if someone conferred immunity, and Jeff said after the fadt that immunity didn't count because the person did't win the challenge?

I think that version of the contract was not updated.

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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-11, 09:48 PM (EST)
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76. "RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Rule"
You are probably right, because awhile back (2-3 years?) I argued that a person who was immune via the hii should be immune for the duration of the TC, but I was contradicted by someone posting this contract excerpt -- it wasn't dabo's post that I linked to but it was the same excerpt, presented as the current rule at the time. I thought it was idiotic but figured...okay, whatever.

If I get ambitious I'll further try to locate where that was.

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-03-11, 10:27 PM (EST)
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77. "RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Rule"
>Last night, as an idol was
>played, I think Jeff would
>have warned them before the
>second deadlock if there was
>any situation where Whitney would
>have been vulnerable.

Actually, even if he warned them about it (iffy IMO), I doubt we would see it on air. They aren't ever going to explain any of this convoluted stuff, they'll only show it if it ever plays out. It didn't play out this time.

Would have been great if Cochran brought up the contract and how confusing this section is and hey guess what, confusion in a contract cannot stand up in court to the benefit of the party that drew up the contract, yadda yadda yadda...

But they wouldn't show us any of that either.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-04-11, 01:35 AM (EST)
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78. "RE: Clarification of Purple Rock Rule"
I agree with you that they leave the convoluted stuff out unless it is necessary.
But they did talk about how good their odds were, and that was partly because of the idol. (Unless I remember all wrong, I think it came up in respect to having three immune.)

Point being, the contestants know the rules and play accordingly, and they played and talked as if the idol would count the same as the IN.

BR, good to know you argues that. It does make sense.

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