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"SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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"SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""

Welcome to the SOTS for episode 4, Survivor: South Pacific. The SOTS, State of the Spoiling is a one stop place to go and get a collective summary of what we've tried to uncover regarding the next episode of Survivor. It usually notes not only what we here at Blows have uncovered, but any interesting discoveries found on other boards as well. Please consider joining in and volunteering to do one this season, the more folks to contribute, the better our boards are. Just a quick reminder that it's a great time for all of us here at Blows to go back and give our guidelines the once over, they really are the reason we all have such a fun, exciting, and CIVIL board. As in the immortal words of S1 Colleen,


Be nice and play fair!!

So far on Survivor: The first week of the show opened with 2 returning fan favorites, Coach and Ozzy vowing to play a smarter game. A very close first challenge was won by Coach and company sending the Savaii's back to vote off their weakest Savaii, Semhar. Since ep one, it seems as if they are taking turns winning the IC and going to TC. Ep 2 sent Christine packing, and in episode 3, Papa Bear was toast. Papa Bear warned Jim that it was he that needed to watch out because he was in the five, while Dawn noted, the "five" changes throughout the day...we'll see. Meanwhile, on RI, Christine dominated Semhar in the balance challenge and sent her out of the game. Coach was disappointed. Now, onto this week...

Episode 4, SURVIVALISM

Preview Promo

The Preview Promo teased:

Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor...at Savaii, the new mastermind is...
Cochran (shaking hands with Jim): Alright, it's a done deal.

Probst: ...Cochran.

Cochran (camera confessional): This is the perfect opportunity to devastate Ozzy.

Jim (talking to Cochran, making boxing movements): It's a Survivor move.

Cochran: Yeah, yeah, I know.

Probst: And Brandon's paranoia hits new heights.

Brandon (talking to Coach): We've got a problem on our hands. Albert, Mikayla and Sophie have something going on.

Sophie (camera confessional): Brandon is just a small Russell Hantz.

There are two story lines going on here. First is at Savaii where it looks like there will a betrayal of an alliance. Jim, who was heard last week telling Keith, "I don't see any of the five flipping at all!". Then this week, we immediately are teased that he's the first to flip...Here he is making a deal with the devil...

...err....the Mastermind, errr....Cochran...

and, it appears that Ozzy is the target of the plan.

Next, Brandon is up to his antics to cause more drama....he's tattle-tailing on his alliance mates, Sophie, Albert and Mikayla to Coach. Sophie thinks he's a troll.

Misdirection Clues

The clues were posted in the Episode 4, title thread by Squid Pro Quo. Here they are:

1. A CASTAWAY TURNS ON HIS ALLIANCE AND TEAMS UP WITH AN UNLIKELY TRIBE MEMBER

CHEAT TWEET: Too soon? A castaway turns on his alliance and teams up with an unlikely tribe member. #Survivor 10/5 @ 8pmET/PT http://bit.ly/qHnn7b

I posted these together, as they are pertaining to the same event. This confirms what we surmised in the preview vidcaps. Jim is making a deal with the new mastermind, Cochran, who is also the unlikely tribe member. I love the cheat tweet as it suggests, Too soon? As this tweet is from Jiffy, and Jiffy tends to spill ALL, I'll go with, YES, it will be too soon and it may spell disaster for either: a) Jim, b) the tribe, or c) BOTH.

2. One castaway is brought to tears when confronted with his past during an emotional tribal council.

Again, this confirms what we see in the preview vidcaps, that clearly the drama queen troll, Brandon, will be a cry baby at TC when he confronts his demons of the past because it's going to be an emotional TC. In other words, Brandon is NOT going to get his way and he's going to be crying about it.

Brownroach notes a very disturbing trend regarding the misdirection clues, here.

Episode 2: A CASTAWAY'S STRUGGLE WITH HIS INNER DEMONS COULD SEVER AN EARLY ALLIANCE
Episode 3: One castaway reveals a shocking secret to their tribe
Episode 4: One castaway is brought to tears when confronted with his past

UGHHHHH! Please get another story line going!!!

3. On Redemption Island, the second castaway is sent home.

D'uh! Christine vs. Papa Bear....From the editing last week, I'd say Christine will pull a "Matt" and go on a 2 episode winning streak. We'll see.


PROMOS

The promo was posted in Tribephyl's Vidcap Thread.

The alliance betrayer, Jim, is featured making his deal with Cochran, we get shades of the lifting challenge, and more drama with Brandon.

Announcer: The new Survivor is better than ever. Coach and Ozzy are fierce competitors.


Ozzy (camera confessional): I try to think a few steps ahead.
Announcer: But can they keep their tribe united?
Brandon (talking to Coach): We've got a problem on our hands.
Coach: Stop! This game is going to get so much crazier than this.
Announcer: And loyal?
Jim (talking with Cochran): I hate doing this. Do I make a move against Ozzy?
Cochran: I've been dying to be a part of something like this.
Jim (Jim and Cochran shake hands): Me and you?
Cochran: Done deal.
Announcer: Just wait...
Jim (holding sand bag weights): Ohhhhh!
Announcer: ...til you see what happens.
Mikayla: Hold it, baby!
Coach (camera confessional): This is my game and I can't let anybody mess it up.

Ozzy...

...is telling us that he's thinking steps ahead...but is he? Will he be blindsided with ANOTHER idol in his possession? Sure looks like it's headed that way. Here is Jim weighing the options...

Can Coach keep his tribe united when Brandon is trying to polarize them? He threatens that it's his game and he can't let anybody mess it up....

...but, how does he plan to do that?

From the vidcaps, we see that the RC/IC is indeed the old "classic" weight lifting challenge. Where in the past, 3 tribe members are chosen to balance a long pole over their back and shoulders while the other tribe places weight on either side of the pole until the daw cannot stand it any longer. In the past, Colby and Mike Skupin broke their poles in Australia, while Rupert and JT have tied for holding the most weight of 220 pounds each. Here are the participants for Upolu:



We deduce that it's Stacey as we see pics of Edna, Mikayla, and Sophie on the side lines cheering.

For the Savaii tribe we have:


and either Ozzy or Keith. We are not shown. I'll go with Ozzy. While Keith looks strong, he's also very tall. Ozzy is strong and short, which, imo is better for the weight challenge. He's a better fulcrum. He may be short on strategic game play, but he's not short on challenge game play.

As we have all noted in the Intro Thread, this picture really spells out the results:

Most likely Ozzy, Jim compete and lift more weight collectively than Albert and Troll-boy, enabling the last woman standing for Savaii, Dawn, to outlast Stacey. Victory for Savaii!

CONCLUSIONS

Albert, Jim, and Ozzy could all be in contention for beating the 220# record. I wouldn't be surprised if it's indeed Ozzy that breaks the record. HIs passion to win will beat those impossible odds, at least in this challenge.

Corvis has started a very nice thread on boot discussion. So far there is logical rationale for a Mikayla, a Stacey, and an Edna boot. Mikayla is pitted against Brandon, and in order to keep peace in the tribe and the alliance, Mikayla could be targeted. Edna is really the smallest and weakest, so she could be toast. Finally, Stacey, while trying to be quiet and get along, she was aligned with Christine, Coach's nemesis. They are all three on the outside of the stargazer alliance, so most likely one of them is toast.

Results:

Combined RC/IC:

SAVAII

RI Winner:

RI Bootee:

Episode 4 Boot:

Don't forget and check out Veruca Salt's editing thread located here.

As for our spoiler de jour, Maxx Fisher, I would argue that so far he really isn't able to spoil too much. So far, I think the editors have laid out the drama and clues in such a way that it's not too difficult to predict the results. Fingers are crossed that Maxx will choose to post his picks later on Wednesday, a la Snewser, and let us all have our fun. Stay tuned, I think there is hope!

Don't forget to peruse all of our threads, and please VOTE, when the thread is up!

If we ever do get press images for this week, I'll edit and post.



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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" KObrien_fan 10-03-11 1
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Krautboy 10-03-11 2
   RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Outfrontgirl 10-03-11 11
       RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Scarlett O Hara 10-03-11 15
           RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Outfrontgirl 10-03-11 16
       RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" dabo 10-03-11 18
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" PepeLePew13 10-03-11 3
   RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Flowerpower 10-03-11 5
       RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" PepeLePew13 10-03-11 13
           RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Brownroach 10-04-11 21
   RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Brownroach 10-03-11 6
       RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" PepeLePew13 10-03-11 7
           RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" KObrien_fan 10-03-11 8
               RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Flowerpower 10-06-11 24
                   RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" KObrien_fan 10-06-11 25
           RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Brownroach 10-03-11 9
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" redbeard103152 10-03-11 4
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Brownroach 10-03-11 10
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" KObrien_fan 10-03-11 12
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Outfrontgirl 10-03-11 14
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Scarlett O Hara 10-03-11 17
   RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Round Robin 10-04-11 19
 Record Breaker Flowerpower 10-04-11 20
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" CTgirl 10-04-11 22
 RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism" Belle Book 10-04-11 23

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-11, 11:38 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Thanks for the early SOTS FP. I'd like to throw in 2 cents.

Jim will be the one to break the record, here he has 200 pounds and looks very comfortable, plus he has the word "weight" on him, he is our record breaker:

Plus we see the Jim and Dawn picture hugging, if Ozzy had been the record breaker or hero, he would have been in the embrace. I personally don't think Ozzy is built to be a weight lifter, it just isn't his bag. If it is him instead of Keith, then he may last up to about 160, IMO.

Also of note:

This asks if united?

Yes, they are, despite the Brandrama.

This asks loyal?

No he is not. It will eventually lead to his demise.


I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

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10-03-11, 11:46 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Well done FP! Thanks for carrying the SOTS torch once again!

I think we had this week figured out again, without Maxx.

Maxx Fisher says "Keep those cards and E-mails coming": If we make it clear that it's to his advantage to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to post his spoilers, maybe we can salvage this season and all have fun spoiling and being spoiled...


Krautboy

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10-03-11, 05:26 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-11 AT 09:52 PM (EST)

I'll write my thank you for the SOTS separately, but here is Maxx's comment:
http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/sreply/7723965/Episode-4-Spoilers
(single post url, no spoilers)

maxxfisher

"Two things

1. Those that are e-mailing & private messaging me and asking for spoilers I haven't posted yet, F* OFF! It's not happening. (4 letter word edited by OFG on request)

2. Those asking me to post the spoilers later, that isn't happening either. I post them when I get the information, and that does work to my benefit. If I could I would post them 5 minutes after the episode ends so we'd have 167 hours of discussion on it. I don't care how people posted them in the past, this is how I'm doing it. No one is being forced to read these spoilers. It's very easy to avoid spoilers, I managed to do it for 22 seasons. And if my spoilers bother anyone's games, I guess your members can't play by the honor system.

After this season you don't have to worry about me posting spoilers, so next season you can do whatever you want, but from this point on I will post any emails/PMs I get regarding these 2 topics with your addresses on them so all can see.

Sincerely,
Go To Hell

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Scarlett O Hara 3259 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-11, 09:41 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
My dear OFG,

Thanks for posting. We are a *clean* board however, and the mods might like your post better if you edited it a bit.

What an A$$ Maxx is -- it's probably lil' Hantz himself. I have no interest in what he has to say and I think we should label our threads "No Sourced Spoilers."

We don't need him to spoil this season.

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10-03-11, 09:51 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-11 AT 10:02 PM (EST)

I thought of that, but then if I edited his post it wouldn't reflect his candid opinion so honestly. But I will change it.

I don't think he's an arse necessarily. He's posting at Sucks, and the language and attitude is encouraged. In fact, he is conforming to Antithesys's spoiler forum rule #9:
9. This is Sucks..."outflame" is in the motto. Be mean. You shouldn't even have to be told that, and you should not need moderator intervention to be kept "out of line".

Different strokes ...
I am still opposed to putting "no sourced spoilers" labels all over the spoiler forum, but I am only one person and I can certainly leave.

As long as there are reliable sourced spoilers, I will read them. I'm in the spoilage by whatever means available camp.

I think you guys are wrong to attribute all source spoilers to Hantz and relatives. Hantz did not spoil Survivor Nicaragua, and it was the most spoiled season ever in terms of details. Let's not assume. I imagine that CBS laid down the law sternly to young Hantz, and he needs his money.

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10-03-11, 11:38 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Sigh. Not that I expected Maxx to care about our board or requests, but these guys always acting like azzes in these situations anymore. Too much rudeness online as is. Oh, well, ty for bringing that to us, OFG.

Honestly, a real Survivor fan should know it's Heck.

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10-03-11, 11:56 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Nice job, FloPo! I'm pretty much in agreement with your whole SOTS here.

Just wanted to point out something that may or may change the reality of what's happening this episode -- there was a comment and vidcap posted somewhere in one of the current threads here that pointed out that pic of Jim and Cochran is an old one dating back to the first or second episode based on the lack of beard growth on Jim's face, and a corresponding vidcap showed he has a much thicker growth for the upcoming episode.

We may not be seeing much of a deal at all in reality, but more like a laying of the groundwork for something to come in future episodes. In other words, nothing's going to happen this week imho, other than seeds being planted.


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10-03-11, 12:37 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Yes, glad you noted this Pepe! I think Modesty posted it here. I really appreciate her two cents on these boards, and I sure hope she'll stick around!

But, I examined the sequence of shots and I am just not convinced that they are older...I think, somehow, they are able to blurr the vidcaps somewhat...





Hard to tell. In the end, if they aligned earlier than this episode, it's going to start playing out now...

Another thing I found odd in the preview promo was this cap:

She is seen right after the shark swimming....we see the shark, then Elyse, then Jim, then the target Ozzy. What does Elyse have to do with this....something?


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10-03-11, 08:11 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-11 AT 08:20 PM (EST)

Actually, it's quite clear to me on the previews that I saw on TV. Cochran's jawline and chin have only a smattering of hair when he's shaking hands with Jim, but then a second later, Cochran's in a confessional facing the camera and he's got plenty more facial hair there.

ETA, a comparison - note the more disheveled appearance of his shirt in addition to the hair growth:

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10-04-11, 01:06 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
The first cap is somewhat out of focus. Here are close-ups for comparison:






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6. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-11 AT 12:41 PM (EST)

I don't see much if any difference in Jim's scruffiness, and it doesn’t make sense for this conversation to have occurred during Ep 1. The Ozzy/Keith/Jim + Elyse/Whitney alliance talks happened on Day 4, right after the Semhar boot. If Cochran and Jim had made a deal before that, Jim apparently changed his mind.

I doubt it took place during Ep 2 either -- it's unlikely Jim would turn on his new alliance that quickly, and at the beginning of Ep3 he named Cochran one of the next to go. Maybe it occurred during Ep 3 and they didn't show it because it wasn't relevant to the Ep 3 TC. I'd say that's the earliest it would have occurred, but probably it does actually happen in Ep 4.

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7. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
It could easily be explained by Jim wanting to hedge his bets by setting up multiple alliances like several other winners have done in the past -- he set up one with Cochran in episode 1 or 2, and also had the alliance talks with O/K/E/W on Day 4 without Cochran's knowledge (or told Cochran that he'd talk to them and 'inflitrate' that alliance).

We're assuming that these five made an alliance, but we're not seeing any side deals. We know from past seasons that there are side deals in every season that we're not privy to until the end.

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8. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
LAST EDITED ON 10-03-11 AT 02:13 PM (EST)

And for that matter we have not heard one thing from either woman in the alliance of 5, so we don't know what they are thinking for sure.

FP, Good catch on the cap of Elyse and the shark imagery. In order for something to really take hold they would need one of the 2 women or else after booting Ozzy it would be 3 vs 3 left.


I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

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10-06-11, 06:30 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Hey KO! Now we know what this was doing in the vidcaps...

So, after 3 episodes of no OFG Theory, here it is, back once again!

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10-06-11, 06:58 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Except that she wasn't the boot, just the talk of a possible boot.

Did you notice the footage of the big shark swimming with a smaller fish hanging onto the shark? I have to rewatch the episode to see exactly where that fell, but that caught my eye.


I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

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10-03-11, 03:16 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
I just don't think Jim's facial hair looks noticeably different in the two sequences, so there's no reason to think this conversation has already happened.
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10-03-11, 12:02 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Fantastic job as usual F.P. You have explained this week and seemed to answer all the unanswered questions. Thanks for all your hard work it is appreciated by all.
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10. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Great SOTS, FloPo.

Ultimately Stacey does seem to make more sense than either Edna or Mikayla as the boot. Coach has two significant quotes in the teasers:

"Stop! This game is going to get so much crazier than this" and "This is my game and I can't let anybody mess it up."

Coach does not want to kowtow to Brandon and lose control of how things play out. And since Brandon is going to have another meltdown at TC, he probably hasn't convinced anyone to see things his way. Stacey was the alt boot last time; Coach obviously doesn't care if she leaves.

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12. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
FYI- The weight lifters are Keith, Jim, and Dawn for Savaii and Albert, Brandon and Stacey for Upolu

Here is a preview of the challenge.


I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

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14. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
THANK YOU THANK YOU FloPo for doing this second SOTS. Thank you Scarlett and KO!

I think you have nailed this week, and the preview video that KO kindly linked clears up any challenge mystery.

I have a feeling this isn't one of the more exciting episodes. The boot won't shake anything up. The duel isn't high stakes. The plot won't culminate. The challenge will be static ... and the big tease is someone tying or beating Rupert. Yawn. And we have to put up with Brandon crying at TC. Well, let's hope next week brings excitement.

to FloPo!

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Scarlett O Hara 3259 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"

10-03-11, 10:29 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Another great SOTS from Flowerpower! All the news we need to know is wrapped up neatly with a bow! Who needs Maxx Fisher when we have our very own first class spoilers in the house!

Since Ozzy isn't lifting this week, I'll have to put my money on Jim as the one who breaks the record set by J.T. and Rupert.

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Round Robin 2243 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-11, 01:22 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
I would have thought Albert might do it, but the vidcap posted above certainly seems to indicate that Jim lifted a hell of a lot of weight.
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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-11, 08:01 AM (EST)
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20. "Record Breaker"
Thanks for posting the link to the new promo, KO! You were right, Keith it is! And, yes, I now agree that it will indeed be Jim that is our record breaker. Since we now know that they get 10 pounds added to each side at the same time. Therefore, in this picture...

....Jim is already holding 220#. I can clearly count 11 bags on the left side of the picture. He will, imo, break that 220# record.

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10-04-11, 07:05 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
Thanks for stepping up and doing another SOTS so soon FloPo. You rock at this!

LOL at "drama queen troll!"

I agree now that it is Stacey's turn to go, but too bad, she would have added some interest to the show with her head swivels and such!



Outdone by Agman

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Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings
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10-04-11, 08:31 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: SOTS, Episode 4, "Survivalism""
I agree with Sophie that Brandon is a troll, although I don't think he's quite as bad as his Uncle Troll.


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