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"Episode 8 SOTS"
CTgirl 6064 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-11, 10:36 PM (EST)
 
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"Episode 8 SOTS" |
Survivor 22: Redemption Island
State of the Spoiling – Episode 8
 Welcome to the SOTS where we try to one-up EPMB and accurately predict the results of Survivor before it airs... sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not. But, we will eternally try! If you are new to these boards, please take a look at our Community Guidelines. You will find them helpful in navigating your way around SurvivorBlows. Recap stolen from the Nationalpost.com: "Recap in 140 - Zapatera debates strength vs. loyalty; Sarita’s on the losing end. Rob and co. are on top of the world! Or at least on top of a live volcano."  Or you can read about it in the East Coast Spoilers Thread hosted by Vince. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Episode 8: "This Game Respects Big Moves" Blind Freddy started the thread for the title and press release clues, "This Game Respects Big Moves." Phillip talked about making a big move in last week’s episode; however everything this week seems to about Matt as all three parts of the clue could refer to him. The powerful move could be an allusion a third alliance forming among Matt, Andrea, Phillip and David. But will it really happen? The CBS press release reads: The winner of the Redemption Island Duel reenters the game only to find themselves in the middle of a merge, ON "SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND," "This Game Respects Big Moves" — The former tribes have big plans for one castaway who has the potential to change the game. Meanwhile, this same castaway grapples with the decision of whether to make the powerful move. Thanks to Volcanic Glass’s sharp eyes, we know that Matt reenters the game. He is seen here helping to build a shelter at the merged camp site. 
Call sheets that were inadvertently left in the garbage and then found say that they merge and go to a new camp, Peña Rota Cove, and the tribe name is Murlonia. (I really hope that these call sheets were faked because Murlonia sounds like a place in a fantasy computer game not a place in Nicaragua.) Both tribes might want to have Matt on their side to help their numbers, however, there is also a risk that Phillip could flip. This potential new group will need to make a decision whether or not to make a powerful move and most likely to try to vote out Rob. However as OFG points out, ” Matt's allegiance has the "potential to change the game.” But as we'll see later, Matt may grapple with the decision, but he'll stay loyal to Rob and Ometepe (for now). Many thanks to Flower Power for consistently bringing over the vidcaps from Survivor Fever each week and to Volcanic Glass for adding web promo and PIP vidcaps. Our analysis can be read here.
Redemption Island and Merge The redemption island challenge is a repeat from HvV and we know already that Matt defeats Sarita. 
All members of both tribes are gathered to view the duel after which Jeff tells them that the winner of the duel will reenter the game and that they are merged! 
AND
Redemption Island starts again! Immunity Challenge
It looks like the survivors have to keep the ball from falling off their board while also keeping from falling off their colored log. It looks like there are two additional balls on the pole in front of each player, so they may need to add one ball to the plate, then another, after a set amount of time. This seems to favor people with good balance like Natalie, a dancer, Grant, a yoga instructor, and Rob. There are eight men and only four women so they might not give the traditional male and female immunities. Matt may or may not be given immunity also. So your guess is as good as mine as to who wins!
The Boot Candidates In the first promo, the vidcaps hint that Phillip will go after Rob, Probst: The winner of today's duel will go back on the game.
Probst: And Rob hears the three words that could put an end to his dominance.
Probst: We are merged.
Phillip : This is a whole new game. I can see paranoia getting to him.
Rob : I know they're coming after me. But I think that is all misdirection. The web promo shows us Mike feeling like he’s a target: VO: "Now the scrambling begins."
Mike: "This is where I gotta go for broke." 
So what will Matt do? Matt said in this insider video*(From you tube so our Canadians friends can see it ) that he had gotten a lot of intel from the various duelers and he was likely to rejoin with Ometepe. And in this vidcap we see Rob shaking hands with someone. After an exhaustive look at the male survivors hands and thumbs, FloPo concluded that it was Matt's hand. Knowing that Matt is likely to stay loyal to his old teammates, he might bury the hatchet with Rob. As OFG notes, Matt got booted for shaking the hand of the enemy, so it's a nice irony that he's shaking hands with Rob now." 
Mike is an obvious merge boot candidate because of his physical strength. Corvis points out in the Confessional Analysis thread that we have Mike “getting a big ol' bump as he was the one talking about the upcoming TC. I have seen it happen in the past - big bump (particularly Ds) means a boot in the next episode.” Mike also fits into the OFG theory. After last week’s hidden boot, it’s time for one to be out front! Bootee: Mike Chiesl Mike’s opening confessional was, “While I was in the Marine corps, I spent two deployments, went to Iraq twice. I think I’m gonna win just because of my background. I think I’ve trained for something like this.” Well you just might get to use this training on Redemption Island! He could have a string of duel wins just like Matt did.  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ We still need more writers for the SOTS. It’s a lot of fun and there are many seasoned vets around here to help you out. Sign up is here. Other reading: Discussion of the latest exit interviews and blog posts The Players, The Game, The Editing Jeff Probst Tweets Did Boston Rob spoil his F3? Double Boots and Triple Duels? And Survivor lives on! We recently learned that Jeff Probst signed for two more seasons and OFG brought us the news that Survivor Skills has spoiled the location: Back to Samoa! I’m not thrilled that they are spending two more seasons in an area where you can’t go in the water but hopefully this will bring some much needed income to the tsunami ravaged island. Lastly, don’t forget to vote for the Survivor you think will get the boot this week! Krautboy is compiling a list of the best guessers in Survivor 22 Voting Score. It’s just for fun!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Thanks to Survivor Phoenix and Survivor Fever for the use of their photos. 
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dabo 20695 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 00:51 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Episode 8 SOTS" |
YAY! I'm in agreement with your pick, a traditional challenge threat merge boot. Mike's prophetic confessional before heading to the last Tribal: "Right now we're in a bit of a tail-spin and we've got a couple thousand feet before we hit the deck, crash and burn." bumped him to top of the Zap confessional count (YMMV). I've mainly been trying all week to figure out if they could manage two boots this episode, restock Redemption Island for a duel, but with all that's happening in this merge, heading to a new camp and everything, it doesn't seem do-able. Post-merge Redemption Island is going to be rough as the challenge threats will mostly all end up going there, but Mike has his chance to at least keep himself from hitting the deck.
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Woogie 121 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 03:07 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Episode 8 SOTS" |
Great SOTS!!!I really missed SOTS lots. Wish I could be a great writer, cause I know I'm bad. "D" grade for Writing when I was at High School, LOL. I'm trying to guess who wins Individual Immunity but it's up for graps for lots of people. Whether TC's really CRAZY as Probst hyped about it, I really think it will be an interesting this week.
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Flowerpower 5285 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 07:04 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Episode 8 SOTS" |
Great job, CTGirl! Thanks for doing this! You spelled it all out, perfectly, I think. Phillip really gets so much up front time, and he's the boot decoy EVERY week. Rob's still talking about him, more than ever...he could flip. But, now is not the time to lose numbers, that's why I think they will go after one of the challenge threats at Zap. Next week, when there is one less Zap, would be a much better time to finally put Phillip out of OUR misery....But, if he's as annoying as ever, maybe Rob will choose to live with him longer...goat.At the IC, I think that Rob, Natalie, or Ashley wins it. I would bet that the winner of this challenge is in the one picture that we have...
To create a little doubt, Mike IS in that picture, and as a military man from one of the Academy's, he'll definitely have some fortitude and could possibly pull it out. For those that don't think Rob will try hard to win this, as he has the II, I say NOT! I think Rob will try to win each and every challenge 110%. In the long run, that is the best way to make it to the end, and he seems dead set on it. As for him playing the idol? He could, but I think he won't need to...at least not this week. I am really enjoying this season and the merge always steps it up a notch! Thanks, FloPo
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Krautboy 2517 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 01:02 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Episode 8 SOTS" |
Great SOTS CT Girl!You covered it all very nicely, and Mike seems like the logical boot...I'm just not sure him "going for broke" isn't a clue that he wins the II, or that the "Jaw dropping TC doesn't throw a wrench into the Mike boot plans...regardless reading your SOTS has me looking forward to this weeks episode even more! Thanks! 
Krautboy
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kingfish 12351 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 03:26 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 8 SOTS" |
Great job, CT. Mike is indeed a logical boot.I'm not quite sure how Rob has any special advantage in the RC though. The perch they have to balance on would favor the dancer, and maybe the yoga-er, and the tray talent would favor the ex-waiters/waitress's. This would seem to me to point to Nat, and a pointless IC win since there isn't any credible reason (so far) why she would be a target. But I really like your style.
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CTgirl 6064 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 04:03 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Episode 8 SOTS" |
Hiya Guppy! Rob has shown in previous seasons that he has good balance plus he will bust his butt to win immunity that's why I included him as a potential winner.
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parathor 28 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 04:21 PM (EST)
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8. "(Lou) Murlonia" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 05:04 PM (EST)Edited AGAIN, because I think I'm right again (re-right?) 
Lou Merloni (former Boston Red Sox utility infielder) used to frequently travel between Boston and the Red Sox AAA-farmteam in Rhode Island, and the trip was jokingly referred to as the "Merloni Shuttle." Rob can't spell, sometimes (see: his trips on The Amazing Race). If Rob entertained sending Matt right back down to "RI" (Rhode Island = Redemption Island?), on the "Merloni Shuttle," would he think it would be funny to name the tribe "Murlonia" as a joke/homage? (and if so, would that make Matt the misdirection, or the actual, boot?)
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Brownroach 12955 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 05:17 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: (Lou) Murlonia" |
I'm sure you're right about the name, there's no other way they'd come up with something as idiotic as "Murlonia" (it sounds like a country in a Marx Brothers movie).
Rob gets to eat the crispy rice so he also gets to name the new tribe. Phillip will be so pleased.
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NedraSue 72 desperate attention whore postings
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04-06-11, 11:29 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Episode 8 SOTS" |
This is a perfect example of why I can not volunteer for SOTS...even tho' I do love them. I can not add links and discussions...nor can I dream up or research enough to come up with this stuff! The whole tribe name is so great! MB really wants Rob to win and here this could have been something that was discussed with Rob prior coming onto the show this time, 'if you make the merge, we need to come up with a name that is ALL BOSTON ROB'...who knows, Amber could have helped him decide it...I really love Rob, but I can't see him being THAT quick on his feet. He probably came to the show with decisions on how to play each kind of person and each episode... I really like that Rob helps to expose Ralph HI, that seems like a jaw dropper and if Rob is able to keep his secret...we will all drop our jaws. Way to go! Thanks for doing the SOTS...I always look forward to them. 
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