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"Pre-Merge Boots:"
michel 7091 desperate attention whore postings
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03-24-11, 05:55 PM (EST)
 
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"Pre-Merge Boots:" |
During the opening, Jeff introduced a new twist and, as he explained how Redemption Island would influence the game we heard Matt's surprise. Then we had these reaction shots:
Looking at the next to last picture, I had figured that it only applied to David because Stephanie wasn't well centered but, counting Steph, all 6 boots so far were shown on screen while Jeff talked. Of the first 8 players shown, only two haven't been booted yet: David and Ashley. (but we also see part of Phillip's face leaving an opening for speculation!) Are these our 8 pre-merge boots?
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Brownroach 13017 desperate attention whore postings
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03-24-11, 06:17 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-24-11 AT 06:19 PM (EST)Is there a cap of what the full tribe formations looked like for the announcement? I don't see why they'd go out of their way to create a spoiler there. It looks to me like the camera was just grabbing people who were standing together. And you really can't see Stephanie's reaction. She isn't even looking toward the camera. If you count her, you'd have to count Philip as well, I think.
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Outfrontgirl 5757 desperate attention whore postings
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03-24-11, 06:37 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-24-11 AT 07:54 PM (EST)t's interesting, but if you start counting partials it's just stretching IMHO. The shot of David's reaction has Steph's head in it but is not OF Steph. The whole rush to Ashley last week took us way off course. She was not in the slightest danger, and she's still not. Weighing this theory in just helped to fuel speculation that was very divorced from the real game logic. I don't say this as a way of pointing blame, as I was way wrong with what tribe went to TC, wrong in believing the promos would play fair, lots of wrong. But I was nearly persuaded by the wave of Ashley fever, when my doubts should have been cast more towards the assumption of which tribe would win. I'm trying to figure out what to focus on and not to put weight on for the next times. Re editing theories: people across boards were stating that Steph had to make merge because she was edited to flip, and a frog is jumping that's shown after her. She was the most obviously in danger person, and was ignored because the group got hung up on a vidcap spike for Ashley, a tree frog shot, this
RI reaction shot theory, Dreamteamers simulating a F3. The simple truth was that Zap got rid of Russ, then Krista, and next would be Stephanie. Or Philip if Ometepe went, alt Andrea. Editing clues are lovely, but it's very easy for them to misdirect us by inserting such things. The game of misdirection is to make us lose sight of logical game dynamics and get hung up on animal imagery, for example. Or a camera roaming a group looking for expressions of shock and awe. This pre-merge theory was good for five episodes, but a theory that works 5 times out of 7 still leads to being wrong twice. (Or 6 times out of 7 ... )
I think Ashley's going to stick around and will probably be good through the family visit at least -- if Rob's team does dominate. She's not the type who gets dumped as a target once she makes the merge; she most likely doesn't get Pagonged; her fate most likely comes down to how her alliance eats itself, which is not now. 
"Sometimes it's not enough to know what things mean, sometimes you have to know what things don't mean." — Bob Dylan
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HitmanPayne 41 desperate attention whore postings
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03-24-11, 08:14 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
Might want to take this with a grain of salt, but if the calendar on truedorktimes is correct, The survivors left for the island on August 16th, about two weeks after phillip's last tweet before then. The survivors came back on September 25th. His next tweet was on October 5th. Whether this means anything I don't know. Just might be something to think about.
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HitmanPayne 41 desperate attention whore postings
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03-24-11, 09:04 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
okay, that meant nothing then. But I still find it weird that if Ashley hated Phillip so badly on the island, why is she following him on twitter?
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Brownroach 13017 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-11, 12:33 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
It's interesting that they showed a reaction shot of Russhole but none of BRob. Their rematch was the raison d'etre for this installment, and since they've both played multiple times it would have been logical to show both of them reacting to this new twist.
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dabo 20784 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-11, 06:27 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
Russell confessional provides an editing break, "Redemption Island like a vacation" stuff. After that I think we see Steve, then other players.
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Outfrontgirl 5757 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-11, 07:41 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
Exactly, CBS is being tricky again this season.
They highlighted more people who went early than didn't.
But as a predictive tool it is almost certainly part misdirection. The editors are not going to sit down and pick out the first seven boots, not this season.Diane's friends was a whole other category. She was just honestly mentioning her friends, not thinking about how she had bonded with them on safari. The editors are professionals who presumably know what they're doing when they make choices. As we can be pretty sure there is misdirection, the only way we have to know which of these are going to be voted off and which not is to go back to analysis by other means. Is it helpful to have someone who is not going anywhere highlighted in the pool for consideration? I think it increases the chances of being fooled, YMMV. As for partial shots counting, the big picture is that all the Survivors are in those two groups, standing close together, but some reaction shots had a specific player in focus. Do we really think the editors sat down and said let's cut in shots of all the pre-merge votes who go to RI, and only them, but for some we will use the head of X who is not the focus ... and hey, let's use so and so's sleeve, while we focus on someone who isn't pre-merge ... it starts to get too much. Either there are seven shots focused on nothing but seven pre-merge players, or there is misdirection. Then look at this shot, which isn't a tight focus. It shows five of the Ometepe tribe.
Five out of nine ... and the older tribemates who became targets early are grouped together, perhaps they gravitated towards each other. If this is right, what it means is that as it happened, five pre-merge vote-offs from Ometepe happened to stand next to each other. It's very unlikely that Ometepe even loses five players pre-merge. By the argument that partials count used to bring Stephanie into the theory, all five of these should count. Further, that is not a shot of Matt. If they meant to show us the king of Redemption island in close-up, they could have done a much better job. Actually I'm surprised they didn't. Matt surely deserved a focus. Of course he helped out by showing the most reaction to the twist of any -- but that wasn't under the editors' control. Well, not unless they actually shot that announcement multiple times, and the editors got to pick the one where Matt reacted with shock. Could be.  Final thought:
It looks bad for Steve this week ...
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HitmanPayne 41 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-11, 08:52 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
Combine that with your other post about Zapatera possibly going to tribal, I can see that the David/Sarita story is a little bit of misdirection, at least for this episode, and they choose to get rid of Steve because of his injured shoulder.
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HitmanPayne 41 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-11, 09:01 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots:" |
What happened to last week where they said "in a challenge that COULD take someone out of the game"? That suggested an injury, but no one saw one....
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Outfrontgirl 5757 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-11, 08:04 AM (EST)
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27. "Shots from similar topic on Sucks" |
I decided I should stop being dismissive and at least go look at the original scene again. I also found another topic on this being discussed at Sucks:Jeff-s-Episode-1-RI-twist-breakdown-Reveals---pre-merge-boot I decided to post the whole speech by Jeff along with ALL the reaction shots from beginning to end. I will caption the shots with the castaway who is giving the main reaction that the camera seems to be singling out, and I've put the secondary characters in parentheses. Jeff: There is one more twist. When you are voted out at Tribal Council, you will not go home. 
MATT (Natalie, Andrea, Ashley, Francesca) Instead, you will leave Tribal Council, and you will be sent to Redemption Island, where you will live alone. You will have the same basic supplies that your tribemates have back at camp, but it will be up to YOU 
KRISTINA (Francesca, Philip, Grant in background) to keep the shelter going
It will be up to you to tend the fire
KRISTA It'll be up to YOU to feed yourself
ASHLEY (Matt, Francesca, Philip, Kristina to sides and back) It will not be easy
DAVID (half of Stephanie) When the next person joins you on Redemption Island
RUSSELL (Steve and David in background) The two of you will square off in a duel 
MIKE (his vocal reaction is purpose of shot, plus Krista, Steve) The WINNER stays 
GRANT (ROB on side) The LOSER 
STEVE is out of the game for good. 
ROB (nodding, Grant to side). 
RUSSELL At a certain point in the game, the remaining person on Redemption Island 
DAVID will be allowed to re-enter the game 
ASHLEY (center), MATT, FRANCESCA (choice of three?) and continue their pursuit of the title of Sole Survivor and the Million Dollar Prize. 
STEVE (says Sweet.) 
ROB 
RUSSELL 
HOBBIT ON CRACK confessional ______________ These are the players who are highlighted: MATT/Andrea/Natalie/Ashley, Francesca
Kristina,
Krista,
Ashley,
David,
Russell,
Mike,
Grant,
Steve,
Rob,
Russell,
David,
Matt/Ashley/Francesca,
Steve,
Rob,
Russell, Russell confessional Sent to RI as of Ep 6 who were featured:
Matt, Russell, Kristina, Krista Sent to RI but didn't get a reaction shot focus:
Stephanie Got a focus shot but not yet to RI:
David, Steve, Mike -- Zapatera
Ashley, Grant, Rob -- Ometepe Fully in a reaction shot but not the focus:
Francesca, Natalie, Andrea Marginally in a reaction shot (split in half or head only)
Stephanie, Philip Not in any reaction shot:
Sarita, Julie, Ralph The word WINNER is juxtaposed to GRANT.
The word LOSER is juxtaposed to STEVE. However, so is Million Dollar Prize. Overall --
10 castaways out of 18 were featured -- meaning a focused shot.
4 were pre-merge voted off. 6 candidates are left to fill 2 more spots (using michel's estimate of 8 pre-merge boots). If you want to count Francesca, I won't argue, but she really was more in the shots than the focus. It was Ashley who was laughing or dropping her jaw, and the others were more standing next to her -- just as Matt was always shown with 2-4 other Ometepe, but he was the focus of the first group because he said WHAT???
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Outfrontgirl 5757 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-11, 08:53 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Shots from similar topic on Sucks" |
With the whole of Jeff's speech included, I want to look at the story they tell with Jeff's words and the reactions, but first, here is michel's first take on the scene, from the Editing topic. I think it's very good."When Jeff explained the Redemption Island twist, it was Matthew’s surprised reaction that we heard first. Will he the one coming back from the island? The camera also panned to Kristina, Krista, Ashley, Francesca and David while Jeff explained the living conditions on the island, leading me to believe these people will spend time there. Russell was the one shown when Jeff explained the duels. Will he win some or is that where is game will end? After that the cameras showed Mike, Grant, Steve, Boston Rob before we went back to Russell when Jeff said the words “out of the game for good”. (if only!) Mike and Steve seemed to get the focus when Jeff mentioned the return. Russell: “Redemption Island does not scare me one bit, it’s a vacation. Yeah! Put me on that island and see what happens. I’m gonna win the challenges and come back and take some heads off.”
Interesting how the editors focused on Russell’s take of the island. I believe that it will be his Waterloo." So true about Russell. My only issue with the part about "these people will spend time there" is that almost everyone will spend time there. None of those shown as Jeff explained the living conditions have spent more than one cycle there ... so far. The way I see the story, Jeff takes us in a circular pattern, a cycle of exile and return, that is roughly in four parts. PART I of the Journey, the Vote Out.
You will not go home when you get voted out.
Here we see Matt because he was the one with the big reaction to this news. PART II of the Journey, the Life of an Exile.
Here the camera focused on Kristina, Krista, Ashley, and David, as Jeff made it clear the conditions would be tough and require self-sufficiency. I think it focused on the women and the guy in the suit because they looked like they would have a hard time doing shelter, fire, being alone. It was probably a nudge to Ashley, who lets others provide, that they showed her being told she'd have to feed herself. PART III of the Journey, the Fight to Survive in the Game -- the Duel
Here the camera showed us strong alpha male types -- Russell, Mike, Steve, Grant, and Rob. These are the tough guys who would say "bring it on." There is an intimation that the Duel will favor the strong. No women are shown. PART IV of the Journey, the Redemption, Return to the Game and Chance to Win.
Shown during the RETURN revelation are David and a group shot of Ometepe featuring Matt, Ashley, Francesca). Shown as Jeff tells them the person will still have a shot to win the grand prize -- Steve, Rob, Russell. We would expect Rob and Russell to be featured there, as this is their shot at Redemption and they are both there to win at last. Steve may be there because he looks like a Tom Westman (and compares himself to Tom) and he said "Sweet." Or who knows, he may actually return. Yet to be seen. So here is my feeling about the number of players shown who were pre-merge boots. The focus was on the women and David in suit during the description of the living conditions, because it would be supposedly tougher for them. The early part of pre-merge is typically heavy on female boots or the more nerdy guys. Then of course there was Russell, out early because he was Russell. So it was sort of logical that the weaker people who fit the storyline Jeff was putting out were also people who would be living the story. (David seems in big trouble.) With Matt, they got lucky that the kid with the big reaction was the one who ended up owning the twist in the pre-merge. So I don't see anything odd about it working out to an extent. The alpha males shown in the second half of the cycle will be candidates to go to RI in the post-merge -- but I have no idea who goes and who stays in the game. Conclusion -- the shots make good sense in telling the story. The editors weren't afraid to use people who went to RI early. At the same time, they didn't sit down and go down the line with the boots. Stephanie was really not focused on, whereas Ashley was and she probably isn't going anywhere before the merge. Russell was shown because it was absolutely important that he get the story. Rob was shown as the master of the game, nodding and absorbing the new twist. Honestly, the image I found most interesting was GRANT flashing along with Winner.
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Outfrontgirl 5757 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-11, 09:24 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots" |
So you have no other thoughts on my analysis?I was not critiquing your first episode response. That was good spec and it was the first episode. I was merely looking at which parts held up. I'm not psychic, so I'm not surprised when things evolve a bit differently. Are you? This post on 3/22 was where you started theorizing that the reaction shots would all be pre-merge boots. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7592.shtml#60 you wrote, in the Editing topic:
When Jeff explained the Redemption Island twist, it was Matthew’s surprised reaction that we heard first. Will he the one coming back from the island? The camera also panned to Kristina, Krista, Ashley, Francesca and David while Jeff explained the living conditions on the island...Russell was the one shown when Jeff explained the duels In those 7 players, 5 have already been sent to RI. It suggests that Ashley and David will make the trip there soon. You were going for 7 out of 7. When Ashley nor David went last week, you tried to bring Stephanie's head bobbing under David's reaction into the theory. Prior to her vote out, I can't see that you considered Stephanie as showcased in these shots. If you had, doubt you would have written "With this confessional, Stephanie punched her ticket to the merge…and maybe well beyond" ... As she said this, we saw a little frog perilously trying to hang on to a branch as it crossed from one side of our screen to the other, obviously symbolizing Stephanie’s attempt to cross from one tribe to the other. The frog made it. ... It would be quite a story if, after relying on Russell, Stephanie made the end game by riding on Rob’s back. Is it too good to be true? Probably but she should make the merge and outlast the rest of her tribe. Post Ep-5 comments you made in your panurge46 topic at Sucks. Either the editing tells us Stephanie is making the merge and flipping, or the editing tells us that Stephanie is going to be a pre-merge boot. Not both, at least not with accuracy. Francesca was not the focus of any shot. She was IN wide shots that had Matt and Ashley making noticeable facial reactions. If focus does not matter and anyone in a wider shot counts, what is the rationale for paying attention to close-ups? Mike, Steve, Grant, and Rob should be on the list of those who got focused reaction shots, which would seem to mess the 7 out of 7 prediction by making the 7 into 11. You don't explain why you cull shots from only one part of Jeff's speech about RI. I would be interested to hear the rationale for not counting all of them. Bulletin Bored at Sucks did mention all of them when he/she proposed this was something to look at. I have always agreed that shots are there for a reason. The question is whether they are there as a sneaky little Easter Egg presented by the editors to those who pay attention -- of the Seven Pre-merge Boots -- or whether they have another editorial purpose. In my last post, I gave an alternate view of why those particular people fit the story Jeff was telling. It would be interesting to get a response from someone on that idea. As far as I can tell, the editors alerted us that women MAY find RI living conditions harsh, that alpha males may get a second chance through the Duel, and that Russell was probably heading for a fall. It did not give us a list of the exact boots and no one but the boots. It just didn't.
It was an interesting idea, but it didn't pan out. I don't see what the problem is with noting that it wasn't quite as simple as a list of the early boots. Odds were high that they weren't going to spell it out so precisely for us.
"Sometimes it's not enough to know what things mean, sometimes you have to know what things don't mean." — Bob Dylan
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Outfrontgirl 5757 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-11, 09:20 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots" |
Pepe, I'm not sniping. I don't care about any kind of one-upping here. I certainly accept missing the Stephanie boot.The theory is being put forward still as a prediction of Ashley and David going, so I am taking it seriously. (Personally I am on board with David, but not with Ashley, but I certainly don't know whether that is correct or not.) I needed to pull out the Stephanie quotes as a way to show that michel's original theory did not include Stephanie, because there was a certain amount of support in the topic for counting her half head after the fact. It is important IMHO that we take a look at how the theory has performed to date and note that it missed Stephanie. The point is not to say that michel missed something. The point is that the editors didn't include all the pre-merge boots, and that needs to be factored in to any future use of the theory. All of this is in service of trying to figure out the next boot.
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michel 7091 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-11, 01:09 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Pre-Merge Boots" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-27-11 AT 01:22 PM (EST)First, OFG wrote: "I don't like arguing with you michel. I'm trying to reply to your posts, but you make it hard without it turning into much more of a battle than I enjoy." And then this: "So you have no other thoughts on my analysis?" So, which is it: You don't like to dance with me but you still invite me to dance? I was going to let the boots speak for themselves but since you insist, all I have to say is watch out for your toes because here goes!
Let's start with this shot:
In the editing world, that is called the "Money Shot". Now, anyone who knows what goes on out there, knows that the cameramen were told to look for reactions when Jeff was to reveal this unprecedented twist. We also know that they don't have 18 cameras out there so they can't isolate everyone all the time. The number I've read most often, including in Burnett's book, is 6 cameras for these group events. So, each camera had to be focused on small groups of 3 or 4 players. That's what you got with that picture: A perfect reaction by the guy who would eventually spend most of the pre-merge at RI. Natalie, Andrea, Ashley and Francesca were irrelevant in that shot. The focus was definitely on Matt. That's why they had to give us another shot of Francesca later! Could they have cropped the image to isolate Matt? Probably but why? The shot is perfect! Let's look at the individual shots: Kristina, Krista and Russell. These were evident spoilers by the editors themselves. It isn't my spoiler, it's what the editors showed us. Kristina, Krista and Russell were pre-merge boots and they were served on a platter. I guess spoilers missed it. Then, as Pepe noted, let's look at this gem:
(Pepe, this all started when I said astrology has no scientific value.) I had written:
"With this confessional, Stephanie punched her ticket to the merge…and maybe well beyond" OFG replied:
"Either the editing tells us Stephanie is making the merge and flipping, or the editing tells us that Stephanie is going to be a pre-merge boot. Not both, at least not with accuracy." This confuses two very different things: My interpretation of the edit and what the editors really did. I love how Pepe put it: "You were emphatic in several posts...that Stephanie had punched her ticket to the merge, and once this proved to not be true, you tried to fit a half-head into the idea. A spoiling maxim is to never try to make the evidence fit the idea." I didn't try to fit a half-head of Stephanie into the idea because that half-head was always there! The editors chose to include a shot of Stephanie. Just like all the people that dearly want to spoil the show, I simply hadn't noticed it but it was always there. As for my interpretation, Stephanie was voted out pre-merge but, again, THIS season it doesn't mean she won't have an influence in the post-merge!!!! We certainly could see both happening. If Matt beats Stephanie, I would have no problem admitting I was wrong about her story but how can anyone say that the pictures lied: She was booted pre-merge and she was pictured during Jeff's speach. Not Ralph. Not Sorryta, Not Julie. Stephanie. (As for her post-merge influence, it would be reduced to convincing Matt that Zap were awful people. Not as grand as I imagined but still a post-merge game changing event!!) If the individual shots cannot be contested, we certainly have a different situation with the combination shots. We do know that Francesca and Stephanie were shown for a reason: Two spoiled boots by the editors. What about Ashley and David? It's possible that the cameras didn't get good isolation shots of Francesca and Stephanie so the editors had to use the ones where Ashley and David were also seen. For all we know, Francesca could have been staring at her feet for most of the time or the sun was in Stephanie's eyes or whatever... Maybe I was too enthusiastic about Ashley being voted out but it doesn't change the fact that all the early boots got their faces shown on screen during the first half of Jeff's speach. 8 were shown and 6 have been voted out with at least one to go.
This brings me to another point and the spoiler I think the eidtors gave us and that I was keeping in my backpocket! Jeff's monologue clearly comes in two parts: First, he tells us about RI and the conditions that the players will face. Then he talks about the duels to get back in the game. The season also plays out in two parts and the duels can be compared to the individual immunity challenges that we have post-merge. The pre-merge boots that were pictured were done so in disorder. The editors weren't going to hand out every thing like Early did! But Russell was put right in the middle of the speach as if to show that his boot would be the highlight of the pre-merge. Why do I only count Francesca, Matt, Russell, Kristina, Krista, Stephanie, David and Ashley? Because they were shown during the first part of the speach. When Jeff talked about the duels and returning to the game, we are safe to assume he was talking about the post-merge. I think the editors told us that Steve and Mike will be the first POST-merge boots!
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Flowerpower 5376 desperate attention whore postings
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03-27-11, 06:23 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Shots from similar topic on Sucks" |
Wow, OFG, thanks for coupling all of the intro shots with the dialog! That really helps....I am one that holds stock on what the camera shows. It was extremely telling with Tocantins, and left us with "who will be outlast, outplay...blah, blah, and ended right smack on JT! So, I really appreciate all of this. The thing I also noted is, could Mike and Steve end up dueling on RI with each other, and then Grant, and Grant will end up being the winner and come back to the game at the F4-5 spot?I also loved, that it was Steve's reaction to the million dollar prize, "Sweet!", but then it cut right to ROB....very hopeful in terms of editing hints there... Thanks so much for doing this. This will map out alot for us, especially in retrospect. Then we can really see what the lay out was meant to show, and what was distraction or misdirection! Thanks so much!
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michel 7091 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-11, 07:41 PM (EST)
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36. "It wasn't Just the Pre-Merge Boots:" |
I don't think there is any doubt that the editors wanted to spoil all the boots up to now.Jeff: When you are voted out at Tribal Council, you will not go home. Matt: What?
Instead, you will leave Tribal Council, and you will be sent
to Redemption Island,
Kristina
It will be up to you to tend the fire
Krista It'll be up to YOU to feed yourself Ashley and Francesca It will not be easy David and Stephanie When the next person joins you on Redemption Island RUSSELL The two of you will square off in a duel Mike, Krista and Steve I'd say Steve is in danger. I still can't figure why Ashley was pictured unless... please NO!!! Hopefully, it was simply because Francesca was going out in that episode and didn't need to be spoiled as a future boot.
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dabo 20784 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-11, 09:58 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: It wasn't Just the Pre-Merge Boots:" |
Ashley would be a good rebellion target in a six-way (Julie, Ralph, Steve, Andrea, Grant, Phil?) to dethrone Rob and also shake loose his HII. One six-way is just as good as another, really.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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