Survivor China appears to be what some die hard Survivor fans have been waiting for (and perhaps editing fans as well) with a note from Mark Burnett that this latest season reminds him the most of the very first Survivor. Limited to just 16 players again, a two tribe formation and while still attempting to broaden cultural and racial contestants, it appears quite obvious that their foray into that arena is not their emphasis any longer.

As always, I am given information to start the thread but in the interest of confining myself to solely the editing of the show, I may have omitted information so please feel free to add anything.

Themes, Twists, Turns

China, this season's destination, has been "hyped" greatly mostly in part of the location itself as it would be the first time an entire American series is being shot on location. A colorful history with a potential abundance of animal imagery and ancient history and symbolism abounds. Although done before, the contestants will start their game among the locals and participate in a cultural ceremony and will also be rid of their possessions (which begs the question which male will ultimately end up in a skirt!)

From what I have been told, Exile Island is no longer a factor (which, although not entirely met with overwhelming praise, did provide some help in terms of editing since contestants exiled that were long term players were shown differently while on Exile Island) and the hidden immunity idols are hidden on each tribe's beach (tied to another twist). While not met with high praise by some either, the end game is still centered around a final three and although this may provide a twist in the editing, thus far it appears that usually only two of that final three are edited stronger. The "third wheel" (to turn a phrase) seems to be shown more as the proverbial coat tail rider which may be another editing aspect to watch for.

A new ripple in the Survivor blue print (that expands from Pearl Island) is the winning tribe of a reward challenge may "kidnap" a member of the losing tribe who will remain with them until the next Immunity challenge. The value of that kidnapped contestant seems high indeed as they will possess the clue to the hidden idol on the opposing tribe's location and they are to give this information to an opposing tribe member of their own choosing. The recipient has their own decision to hold that information or share it with their tribe members. What fun is this! Choices abound again and this has the makings of cross tribe alliances which no doubt was done to avoid the dreaded "pagonging"

A notable precursor to this season is that each contestant was provided with Sun Tzu's The Art of War in preparation for this season and although there are many interpretations, generally speaking it is one of the oldest books on military strategy expressed in concepts due to it being written in ancient Chinese. Each chapter encompasses one aspect of warfare as follows:

Laying Plans, Waging War, Attack by Stratagem, Tactical Dispositions, Energy, Weak Points and Strong, Maneuvering, Variation in Tactics, The Army On The March, Terrain, The Nine Situations, The Attack By Fire and The Use of Spies (translated titles by Giles). Again, while there have been many interpretations about this text, I am solely providing a generic overview of the premise in that Sun Tzu recognized the importance of "positioning" in strategy and how that position may be affected by objective physical conditions and subjective views of those in that environment. Strategy is best employed by a quick response to conditions changing and although planning seems like a wonderful idea, in a competitive environment, the best laid plans.....

Far be it from me to claim expertise with respect to the Art of War, however in the brief overview of the book, it appears that "war" in this case is not necessarily about brute force but rather, evaluation of your competition, strength in unity as opposed to size, protecting your "position", adaptation and flexibility, capitalizing on the information provided by other sources and generally speaking warfare is about deception. In light of the fact that this is not a "military setting" it is interesting to note that the Art of War has been utilized in the business world and sports world lending to the premise that the Art of War is more about fighting wars without actually having to do battle, i.e. outsmarting prevents the need for physical battle. Interestingly enough his principles were not only tested on men but women as well and while I am a true fan of the male species, the subtlety that seems to emanate from Sun Tzu's strategies may indeed favor a woman should the outcome of this season be immersed in this "theme" but that is yet to be determined.

Tribal Formation

As touched on, we will have two tribes Fei Long (Flying Dragon) and Zhan Hu (Fighting Tiger) comprising of eight players each with what appears to be a nice balance of four women and four men on each tribe and although diversity has now become part and parcel to Survivor it certainly is not prevalent this season with this cast. The ages of the contestant appear to be a nice mix ranging from age 20 up until 47. Alas, 47 (male) is by no means old but it may with Survivor as the next closest age is 40 (female) and whether they are looked upon as father and mother figures or dragging their tribe down remains to be seen.

The Players

We have seen the editors categorize different types of people and edit them in a certain fashion. Men and women on this show are edited quite differently with a strong male usually getting a very prominent and promising (sometimes misleading) edit. However this does not take away from the fact that an "overt" male leader may be a boot candidate as well especially if they are on a tribe that has other strong males who do not wish to be "led." Consequently, many "strong" women do not receive this; they often are portrayed slightly negative (bossy). A subtle female leader tends to be welcomed much more than those who are too "strong" with their leadership skills (Debb, Sylvia and the like) There has been criticism that the more successful women are sadly neglected in their edit which usually tells me to look for OTHER clues to their edit. "Characters" as we know, are often highly visible but without any real dimension. Villains are sometimes forced upon us as is the case with femme fatales and the like. Journey characters often appear quite transparent and quite often they do well enough for the audience to see them reach the end of that journey. Forced edits are normally not end game edits. This is not to say that end game player edits are not manipulated; they certainly are. However, the manipulation is subtle; it would have to be or else it would ruin the "surprise." Manipulated scenes and conversations, unnecessary focus on something that should not be very important have all been utilized in the edit of an end game player.

Contestant Analysis

As we have learned, sometimes what Jeff does say about a contestant may be telling and sometimes it is misleading. Since I do this every season, these are the comments about past winners, which I like to note just to help encompass how Jeff discusses the characters.

On Earl: "That's a good strategy (with respect to Earl advising of a seize or retreat strategy) It's playing to win and as far as I'm concerned, why else are you here"

Yul could absolutely win this game; I'd be delighted if he did; a super likeable guy" and"Yul is a player. You underestimate Yul, you'll be going home before he will... He studied the show. As somebody who wants to play this game and have a shot at winning he's studied the show"

"I'm not sure what he's (Aras) bringing. He's bringing a lot of talk. Does he know how to play Survivor? We'll find out. That's all I've got on Aras"

"Danni is someone that I think people are probably going to get behind. She's in great shape. She's tall and she's got a competition background"

"Tom is salt-of-the-earth guy. A father. A firefighter. There's no chance of this guy being a villain. You hope he lasts long enough in the game to be a hero. If he does last for a while, he's the kind of guy who could win it, because people are going to look at him and say, You know what, why not him? Everything about him is good."

"If Chris is everything he reports to be, he'll do just fine in the game, that's the question. Is he putting on a really this strong "I'll tackle anything bring it on, you can't beat me kind of guy? I don't know. I think he's one of the guys that could either emerge as really strong or fade fast" Also, a guy you know will play the game like Mariano; super exciting to us....." (Recall this is coming off from All Stars)

Interesting to note is Jeff’s opinion and literally his representation of each of them were their portrayal. While Earl and Yul were decent guys, their “likeability” factor was not the overriding bane of their edit but rather their knowledge and strategic minds which Jeff stresses.

Danni and Tom on the other hand were shown more along the lines of their personality first. Tom the leader and patriarch with really only a few “arrogant” (if you will) moments and Danni, while perceived as “hidden” by many was always shown with a smile on her face with nary a criticism by anyone.

Aras is not remarked upon by Jeff in the most positive light and essentially is questioned by Jeff and what he is bringing to the game. Many times through the season, Aras was shown in situations where, in fact, one may question what on earth is this guy doing (hand gestures, telling, discussing who he will boot to their faces, etc.)

Chris’s description was also very true to form. He talked a talked and while his strategy could not even compare to the low key and thoughtful approaches that Earl and Yul brought, Chris was certainly wily and is stated as such.

Again, this season is met with interesting commentary by Jeff and again note that in any group situation, people gravitate towards one another based upon their similarities whether it be age, gender, race, religion, occupation and the like. However turn about is fair play and some of the most unlikely people can become allies.

We also know “typically speaking” some first boot candidates are those who are overly bossy, those who appear weak or sick, the "oldest" (which is entirely dependent on how that person is contributing; one can be the oldest and be absolutely valuable to the tribe whether of a physical, leadership, paternal/maternal, maturity nature) those who are socially not integrating enough or those who may be directly responsible for the challenge loss.

Keeping that in mind:

THE FEI LONG (FLYING DRAGON) TRIBE

DENISE MARTIN (40 years old, the eldest on tribe and female in game. Married with children and lunch lady)

Jeff says: "Denise is a likable, blue-collar woman with the most lovely mullet. She has it, she tells us, because it fits her life. There's nothing pretentious about her. She's very honest and endearing and a hard worker. I just adore Denise."

High praise from Jeff and understandably so. A tough looking exterior with a winning smile, Denise may be that “older woman” who may get along with the men and the women; she most certainly does not appear to fit the slot of the oldest woman who “drags” down the rest of the tribe. It seems hard to believe that such praise by Jeff would mean Denise’s stay in China is short lived. At this time, there is nothing to suggest that Denise would leave early.

LESLIE NEASE (38 years old, Christian-radio host, married)

Jeff says "Being a Christian-radio host can hurt you if your religious beliefs come ahead of making decisions in this game — say, you can't lie to somebody because of your faith. On the other hand, people might trust you and you could pull the wool over their eyes." and As far as Leslie, a Christian radio talk show host. I think that's a slam-dunk. That plays out in the first four minutes of episode one when she's forced to go inside a Buddhist temple and she's a Christian talk show radio host. Anytime you have any of those hot buttons, if you have a gay person and a homophobe, you have a Christian, somebody that's very religious, we had a woman, I think in The Amazon, that wouldn't touch the Immunity Idol because she says, "I will not bear down to any other idol" or whatever. She wouldn't even touch that. She couldn't get her mind into the fact that this was just a silly piece of wood. For her, you called it an idol. That's money in the bank.”

If there is to be an “elder” female (I use the term “elder” loosely) to leave I would be more inclined to believe Leslie would leave. A strong belief in religion can sometimes polarize a contestant unless you find others of similar ilk or if you remain somewhat low key. While we cannot know how vocal Leslie is, radio personalities are obviously schooled in the art of verbal communication and not always a soothing one. One’s convictions may not be appreciated in such a small setting. Jeff’s commentary does not sound altogether too promising and I find it interesting that he is extremely generalized in his commentary about Leslie which may suggest she was not there long enough for him to develop any specific thoughts about her since his focus is more about her religion than actually Leslie herself

COURTNEY YATES (26 years old, waitress, not married)

Jeff says "Courtney's not the kind of girl who wakes up and says, ‘Should we go catch fish?' She'll say, ‘I need a cup of coffee and a cigarette!' She admits she can be a ##### with a negative attitude. At first, she is off-putting. But there's something oddly appealing because she's being real. She's tiny, but she can take care of herself with her mouth alone."

Note the difference in Jeff’s “take” on Courtney (as well as Denise) as opposed to Leslie. Jeff comments on these women and their personalities and what makes them who they are; with Leslie, we hear none of this. Thus, Courtney may not do that horribly despite that her mouth may get her in trouble. It would frankly not surprise me should Courtney and Leslie not see eye to eye and in the same token, Denise and Courtney may get along to a degree. Courtney may be one of those “characters” that we see quite a bit of and it is remains to be seen whether she is flushed out more for longevity purposes or not.

AMANDA KIMMEL (23, Hiking guide, pageant winner, not married)

Jeff says: "Amanda probably is the most physically fit woman this season, very strong and confident. She's been outdoors a lot and she's not afraid of sticks or stones. Plus, she really knows the show — she's watched every episode — and after 15 seasons, that's an advantage."

Positive commentary although nothing honed in on specifically about her persona except for confidence. I'm sure I am not the only one who sees a similarity to Danni, a prior winner. Knowing the show is always a plus and Jeff appears to reflect that Amanda's knowing the show was a positive for her. There appears nothing to indicate that she should go quickly since she is physically capable and may also be well liked by some of the men on her tribe. The young physically fit woman generally does pretty well unless they get ill or are very lazy. While we have no way of knowing if she could fall ill, her physical prowess would tend to negate that at this time and she certainly does not appear to be of the lazy mindset.

JEAN-ROBERT BELLANDE (36, professional poker player, not married)

Jeff says: "He's a big guy with a big, big personality, exactly what you want a poker player on Survivor to be. Jean-Robert will tell you what he's going to do and you don't know if he'll do it or not, because he's a card player." and "We have a guy this season, Jean-Robert, who actually came in with a pretty interesting strategy which was, I'm going to come in and not be liked. I want people to not like me and then I'm going to become likeable. His reason was, psychologically, and we talked about this to our psychologist and she said, it was absolutely correct. Psychologically if you meet somebody and the first time you meet them you don't like them very well, the minute you get to know them, you do like them. You end up liking them more than you would have had you liked them initially. That was his philosophy. I'm going to be the guy that everybody thinks is a big chump and doesn't pull my weight and is lazy. Then I'm going to start pulling my weight. Then I'm going to become funny and people are going to like me more than they ever would have. That kind of strategy, while not exactly out of "The Art of War," is part of it. It's how do you get to know your opponent and play them in a way that will let you win. I thought it was a pretty good idea" and Jean-Robert, who didn't have a clue about Survivor but was so certain that just the fact that the was a professional poker player would take care of itself. That dude had a quick learning curve. He did. He started realizing, okay, I don't know what the hell is going on out here. The people are all talking behind my back and I don't know what they're saying. Hello, Jean-Robert. You should have watched a couple of episodes, you numbskull."

No doubt a character for this season, it stands to reason that Jean-Robert may be "highlighted" regardless of any longevity. Jeff's lengthy commentary about Jean-Robert's "strategy" does indicate that he is there a bit to implement it; however this could also be a first episode confessional which Jeff thought was interesting that may go nowhere. It's a tricky strategy since often those who do not "pull their weight" may get booted immediately and it appears that Jean-Robert may have woken up to this realization and adjusted accordingly. Jeff though does not necessarily give off a "vibe" that all this characterization about Jean-Robert is short lived. The fact that Jeff mentions he “started realizing” tends to make me think that he may be there a bit but regardless, I am sure Jean-Robert will be a frequent face to the viewers despite how well he does"

AARON REISBERGER (32, Surfing instructor, restaurant manager, not married)

Jeff says: "Aaron is a threat. He's a charming, good-looking guy, and he's got a side to him that's cold like steel. He's a bartender and he told us that he sizes up people fast to get a bigger tip. He'd tell you one thing and there was always something else going on. He's the guy who could be playing everybody."

Young, strong males always tend to be a harder call as they tend to fare rather well until merger occurs then they are as obvious as a bulls eye on a dartboard. Normally, they have few problems lasting until that time. I also would have no problem believing that he may find the likes of Amanda attractive as well. As long as this tribe is winning challenges, Aaron should not have a problem although it would also not be surprising should there be some "ego" clashes between himself, Jean-Robert and perhaps James vying for that alpha male role

JAMES CLEMENT (30, grave digger/burial service owner, not married)

Jeff says "He is without question the biggest guy we've had on this show. He's actually a gentle giant, a very decent guy who works extremely hard. But if you rile him up, he'll let you know what he's thinking.

Nothing to indicate any immediate problems and with Jeff's opinion that he is a "gentle giant." James may be exactly what this tribe requires should there be personality issues brewing. No doubt his physical stature will provide an asset but again all strong males should be wary come merger time. Nonetheless, I see nothing to indicate James would go anywhere early on.

TODD HERZOG (22, flight attendant, openly gay Mormon)

Jeff says: "Todd is a Survivor superfan who's wanted to be on since he was 14. Next to Courtney, he's probably the smallest person here. He's what you look for — a great personality who knows how to play this game." and "This kid couldn't drive when we started. He did know the game. It's because he's been watching since he was a kid. I'll tell ya, in his case, it pays off. He knew going in how to start the game. He had a game plan how an alliance best worked and how you worked people"

It will be interesting to see how someone with Leslie's background and Todd get along and with the makeup of the tribe, I see Leslie getting the short end of the stick. Both Courtney and Amanda may strike up a friendship with Todd not only based on his affable nature but it always helps to have one male on the "girl's side" Considering Todd is with three "manly men" he may bond with the women. Jeff's positive commentary that Todd's strategy pays off would indicate that Todd is around for a good portion and while my comment may appear stereotyped, gay men do tend to bond with the women and are not perceived as threats by the men.

THE ZHAN HU (FIGHTING TIGER) TRIBE

STEVE "CHICKEN" MORRIS (48, Chicken farmer, single parent)

Jeff says: "They don't make a lot of guys like Chicken anymore. He's an old-school, hardworking guy who knows what it is to build a shelter, get firewood, build a fire, try to catch fish — and then have lunch. If you put him around people who aren't his age and don't have his work ethic, he doesn't understand. He's going to have to adapt and it's not an easy task."

Chicken, while no doubt a “character” just by his look alone, may have a big problem early on. He is the eldest and from what is stated, appears to be somewhat shortsighted in the art of “adaptation” which is a big no no in Survivor. Work ethic is appreciated on this show however we have seen the likes of hard workers getting booted despite how much they may contribute. Social skills and adaptability are much more valuable than work ethic; I do not have high hopes for Mr. Chicken although I’m sure he will be highlighted as well.

DAVE CRUSER (37, bartender/former model, single)

Jeff says "Dave is crazy. To his credit, he's a workaholic but sometimes to a fault. He fully embraces The Art of War from a strategic point of view — like, how to work with his tribe. Dave jumps out in the first few days and he's a delight to watch in his zaniness. You'll remember Dave for sure."

I would hope and suspect that if we are to remember Dave for sure, he should be there for a bit although Billy will always be remembered and he was not there that long. Dave sounds like he will certainly be memorable and Jeff’s take matches the fun smile on Dave’s face in his photo shot. Dave may be someone who helps keep the long hours from feeling too long and that is worth a lot on this show. Again, social adaptation is key to survival on Survivor and Dave appears to have what it takes along with having a keen awareness of strategy. He also is at a good “age” where he is old enough to bring an air of leadership but young enough to not appear out of the loop. However, it stands to reason again that any strong male is a contender for a potential problem as merger comes around as well.

PEIH-GEE LAW (29, jeweler, single)

Jeff says "Historically, Peih-Gee's qualities don't bode well. She's quick with an opinion and she's got a lot of them. But Peih-Gee is a player — she's smart and knows how to work with people even though she may have no idea what they're saying behind her back. She understands you can be bossy and make it work."

Interesting summation about Peih Gee. Jeff indicates that “historically” her persona would not bode well yet couples it with her being astute enough to make it work. This seems to indicate that while Peih may not be a favorite on the island, she is savvy enough to get out from under her own pitfalls. We may see a very manipulative young lady which is always fun to watch. She, at the very least, sounds like someone who will work very hard to play the game

ASHLEY MASSARO (28, WWE SmackDown Diva)

Jeff says "Ashley is definitely fit. She told me in casting, ‘On a daily basis I get thrown from 15 feet in the air and land on my back. I think I can push some coconuts around. Put me on the show.' She's strong and she's mouthy and she spends a lot of time running around in very little clothing." and “Ashley, I think, certainly it's a platform for her but for us, it was a really good character when we met her. She is a ...crazy. She's altered her body in a way that it's hard not to notice her. She's got a wrestler's mentality when it comes to challenges. She's very physical. She said, "I make my living throwing people around. I love this idea."

I am never one to look too deep into Jeff’s words initially (maybe just a bit ) but words such as “it was a really good character” makes me suspicious regarding her time on the island. While Jeff’s use of language may just be careless he is already speaking about her in a past tense. Be that as it may, Ashley certainly is anything but subtle and certainly a very strong looking female. I am not entirely sure how the women will feel about her based on her appearance and her personality and while Jeff also mentions other females with a strong personality, he never says that it “works” for Ashley like he says about Peih or that it could be appealing like Courtney and I do tend to put a lot of weight into how Jeff presents people

ERIK HUFFMAN (26, musician, single)

Jeff says: "Erik is a throwback to old-school politeness. When we cast him, Ethan went through our heads. He's humble, quiet and a nice guy. There was something refreshing about him being exactly what he said he would be."

It is always nice to see a nice looking strong male who appears not to have ego issues so Erik may get along well with everyone. Jeff certainly does not indicate a trauma filled trek by Erik and his personality can sometimes go a long way. Considering who he is surrounded with I suspect Erik will be well received by many but again, generally speaking the strong young male is always vulnerable around merger time.

SHEREA LLOYD (26, fourth-grade teacher, single)

Jeff says "Sherea is a fish out of water here, but she's a fighter. She is another person who will tell you what she's thinking. Sherea and a few others made me see the beauty and power of announcing who you are and being that person, because that makes you identifiable."

We appear to have many contestants with quite a lot to say; how this works out while living together remains to be seen. A fish out of water does not necessarily mean short term as we saw first hand with Cerie and I would at least suspect Sherea is there long enough to allow Jeff to form the opinion he has in his last comment about Sherea. However, one can’t look past that someone who is out of their element either physically or socially may not do that well long term.

JAIMIE DUGAN (22, college student, single)

Jeff says "Jaimie is a sorority girl and she's proud of it. The flip side is that's she's very bright. She speaks her mind and she actually makes some sense. She's very flirty, and she's good at it. I knew early on she was kind of the tribe mediator. She can hold her own — she's definitely not wimpy."

Again, Jeff comments that while Jaimie speaks her mind, she makes sense. Compare again to Ashley and only that Ashley is mouthy, he never states a follow up to Ashley in that regard. Be that as it may, I’m not sure on Jaimie’s chances. I would suspect that if other females go before her it may only be because she has shown herself to be an asset physically. A proud sorority girl does elicit stereotypes to my mind and there may be some people on the island who aren’t too fond of that “type” There may be some “flirtation” in her strategy but time will only tell if that would work. Jeff mentioning also that "early on" she was.... seems a bit off to me. While he may be focusing on a specific situation that occurred where she had to play mediatator, I am suspicious that if that is what Jeff needed to comment on that this was the biggest part of her stay

MICHAEL "FROSTI" ZERNOW (20, film student, parkour expert, single)

Jeff says: "He's a good kid who brings something new. Parkour is a mix of gymnastics and martial arts. When we saw his tape, we thought he could just fly over some of our obstacle walls. We've never had somebody that had his kind of physical gift — he'll do a backflip when he's bored. And he's a sharp kid, too. He gets it."

Indicative of someone who could be threatening but does not appear to be so which is always a good thing. He certainly appears to be a potential challenge asset and there may be an automatic “bonding” between himself and Peih by sheer virtue of their Asian culture. While this does not always necessarily happen, those with like cultures or other similarities often bond and provide useful to one another. Jeff’s words are not highly indicative of his standing but there does not appear to be anything to send up warning flags that he is an early casualty

As always, I am looking forward to everyone’s additions and information that I may have missed and to a wonderful editing season.